PDF 原檔：報告_MS_PC月度數據_20260813_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-14）
ingest 時建立的「眼見為憑」圖片索引，是 lib/ 嵌圖的唯一真相來源；嵌入時只從這裡挑分類為「真資料圖」的。
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_MS_PC月度數據_20260813_001.png |
66KB | 裝飾·banner | Asia Summer School 2026 泳池畔宣傳 banner（與 iPhone 報告同一張） |
Exhibit 1（Monthly NB shipments）與 Exhibit 2（Quarterly NB shipments）未被抽出為獨立 PNG
pdf_parse 僅抽出上方 banner，兩張真正的資料圖表（原檔 p.1 內嵌圖）未落地為 attachment/ 檔案；pdf_trim 的 OCR 對這兩張圖表輸出高度錯亂（見下方「原始內容」的散亂數字，不可直接引用）。故下方另建「圖表數據校對」區塊，由 Claude 直接對原始 PDF（報告_MS_PC月度數據_20260813_original.pdf 第 1 頁）以 600–1200dpi 裁切逐格核對抄錄，並與正文 Key Takeaways 敘述交叉驗證一致（Jul-26 Total 8,200k=8.2mn、MoM -31%、YoY -24%、vs 前估 8,550k 之 Diff -4%；Aug-26E Total 9,000k=9.0mn、MoM +10%、YoY -20%；3Q26E Total 27,300k=27.3mn、QoQ -10%、YoY -20%、較前估 28,900k 下修 -6%，皆與原文完全吻合）。lib/ 寫入一律只引用本區塊數字，不得引用下方「原始內容」的 OCR 殘形。
圖表數據校對（PDF 原始圖表逐格核對，2026-08-14）
Exhibit 1：Monthly NB shipments for top five NB ODMs（unit: k）
出貨量 Jan-25 – Dec-25
| ODM | Jan-25 | Feb-25 | Mar-25 | Apr-25 | May-25 | Jun-25 | Jul-25 | Aug-25 | Sep-25 | Oct-25E | Nov-25 | Dec-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta | 2,800 | 3,100 | 4,900 | 3,300 | 3,800 | 5,000 | 4,000 | 4,100 | 4,600 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 3,900 |
| Wistron | 1,500 | 1,500 | 1,900 | 1,700 | 1,800 | 2,400 | 2,000 | 2,200 | 2,200 | 2,100 | 2,200 | 2,600 |
| Others | 1,500 | 1,600 | 1,900 | 1,700 | 1,800 | 2,100 | 1,700 | 1,800 | 1,900 | 1,600 | 1,700 | 2,000 |
| Compal | 2,000 | 2,100 | 2,900 | 2,200 | 2,400 | 2,500 | 2,300 | 2,300 | 2,500 | 2,100 | 2,300 | 2,400 |
| Pegatron | 610 | 575 | 700 | 610 | 775 | 990 | 750 | 825 | 825 | 775 | 710 | 925 |
| Total | 8,410 | 8,875 | 12,300 | 9,510 | 10,575 | 12,990 | 10,750 | 11,225 | 12,025 | 10,075 | 10,410 | 11,825 |
出貨量 Jan-26 – Aug-26E（含 Jul-26 前估與 Diff）
| ODM | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26（實際） | Jul-26E（前估） | Diff | Aug-26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta | 2,700 | 2,000 | 5,300 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 4,500 | 2,800 | 3,500 | -20% | 3,100 |
| Wistron | 1,700 | 1,600 | 2,800 | 1,800 | 1,700 | 2,000 | 1,600 | 2,200 | -27% | 1,600 |
| Others | 1,700 | 1,500 | 2,200 | 1,500 | 1,500 | 2,400 | 1,600 | 1,500 | +7% | 1,600 |
| Compal | 1,600 | 1,500 | 2,800 | 1,800 | 2,000 | 2,400 | 1,800 | 1,800 | 0% | 2,100 |
| Pegatron | 700 | 425 | 675 | 525 | 575 | 650 | 400 | 650 | -27% | 600 |
| Total | 8,400 | 7,025 | 13,775 | 9,125 | 9,275 | 11,950 | 8,200 | 8,550 | -4% | 9,000 |
成長率 Apr-26 – Aug-26E（%）
| ODM | MoM Apr-26 | MoM May-26 | MoM Jun-26 | MoM Jul-26 | MoM Aug-26E | YoY Apr-26 | YoY May-26 | YoY Jun-26 | YoY Jul-26 | YoY Aug-26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta | -34% | 0% | +29% | -38% | +11% | +6% | -8% | -10% | -30% | -24% |
| Wistron | -36% | -6% | +18% | -20% | 0% | +6% | -6% | -17% | -20% | -27% |
| Others | -32% | 0% | +60% | -33% | 0% | -12% | -17% | +14% | -6% | -11% |
| Compal | -36% | +11% | +20% | -25% | +17% | -18% | -17% | -4% | -22% | -9% |
| Pegatron | -22% | +10% | +13% | -38% | +50% | -14% | -26% | -34% | -47% | -27% |
| Total | -34% | +2% | +29% | -31% | +10% | -4% | -12% | -8% | -24% | -20% |
更早月份（Jan-25 – Mar-26）MoM／YoY 序列見原始 PDF Exhibit 1（未逐格轉錄，避免手動謄寫誤植；如需可回原檔核對）。
Exhibit 2：Quarterly NB shipments for top five NB ODMs（unit: k）
出貨量
| ODM | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E（新，8/13） | 3Q26E（前估） | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta | 10,500 | 11,700 | 12,600 | 11,100 | 10,800 | 12,100 | 12,700 | 10,900 | 10,000 | 11,500 | 9,500 | 11,000 | -14% |
| Wistron | 4,600 | 5,100 | 5,200 | 5,300 | 4,900 | 5,900 | 6,400 | 6,900 | 6,100 | 5,500 | 4,800 | 4,700 | +2% |
| Others | 4,500 | 4,900 | 5,200 | 5,400 | 5,000 | 5,600 | 5,400 | 5,300 | 5,400 | 5,400 | 4,900 | 5,000 | -2% |
| Compal | 7,500 | 8,700 | 8,300 | 7,800 | 7,000 | 7,100 | 7,100 | 6,800 | 5,900 | 6,200 | 6,400 | 6,400 | 0% |
| Pegatron | 1,550 | 2,030 | 2,475 | 1,950 | 1,885 | 2,375 | 2,400 | 2,410 | 1,800 | 1,750 | 1,700 | 1,800 | -6% |
| Total | 28,650 | 32,430 | 33,775 | 31,550 | 29,585 | 33,075 | 34,000 | 32,310 | 29,200 | 30,350 | 27,300 | 28,900 | -6% |
QoQ %
| ODM | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E（新） | 3Q26E（前估） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta | +1% | +11% | +8% | -12% | -3% | +12% | +5% | -14% | -8% | +15% | -17% | -4% |
| Wistron | -13% | +11% | +2% | +2% | -8% | +20% | +8% | +8% | -12% | -10% | -13% | -15% |
| Others | 0% | +9% | +6% | +4% | -7% | +12% | -4% | -2% | +2% | 0% | -9% | -7% |
| Compal | -10% | +16% | -5% | -6% | -10% | +1% | 0% | -4% | -13% | +5% | +3% | +3% |
| Pegatron | -6% | +31% | +22% | -21% | -3% | +26% | +1% | 0% | -25% | -3% | -3% | +3% |
| Total | -5% | +13% | +4% | -7% | -6% | +12% | +3% | -5% | -10% | +4% | -10% | -5% |
YoY %
| ODM | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E（新） | 3Q26E（前估） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta | -3% | -7% | -4% | +7% | +3% | +3% | +1% | -2% | -7% | -5% | -25% | -13% |
| Wistron | +18% | +11% | 0% | 0% | +7% | +16% | +23% | +30% | +24% | -7% | -25% | -27% |
| Others | +2% | 0% | +6% | +20% | +11% | +14% | +4% | -2% | +8% | -4% | -9% | -7% |
| Compal | -1% | 0% | -11% | -6% | -7% | -18% | -14% | -13% | -16% | -13% | -10% | -10% |
| Pegatron | -9% | -2% | -1% | +18% | +22% | +17% | -3% | +24% | -5% | -26% | -29% | -25% |
| Total | +1% | -1% | -4% | +5% | +3% | +2% | +1% | +2% | -1% | -8% | -20% | -15% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. "Others" are other leaders. "3Q26E（前估）" 為報告內建比較基期（推測為 2026-06 前後估值，非 2026-07-14 報告之估值，兩者可能不同口徑，見各公司頁引用時的說明）。
原始內容
Shipment (unit: k)
Jan 25
2,800
1,500
1.500|
Mar 25
4.900
1.900
1.900
1.500
2.000
100
2.900
400
610|
$75
8,875
400|
500
990|
Jul 25
4.000
2.000
2.300
750
10,750
Asia Summer School 2026
Othere
Compai
700|
12.300
7151
10.575|
12,990
825
11.225
Septs
2.200
1.90€
2.500
825
12,025
978888
No RiE
13
ANNA
11,
8888883
FESTEE
4H9a538
88
100
600
9,000
M August 13, 2026 09:00 PM GMT
$999
20%
25%
12%
11%
0%
35
24%
•11%
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
Monthly Databook: July-26 Shipments -4% vs. MSe; 3Qe Lower by 6%
Key Takeaways
- Top five ODMs' July 2026 NB shipments were 8.2mn units (-31% m/m, -24% y/y), 4% below our estimate.
- We estimate August 2026 NB builds at 9.0mn units (+10% m/m, -20% y/y).
- We lower our 3Q26 NB build estimate by 6% to 27.3mn units (-10% q/q, -20% y/ y).
Overall July ODM notebook shipments came in 4% below our estimate:
Component constraints remain a bottleneck, but there is evidence of a fade in the 1H pull-forward demand. However, we do expect product mix to continue to shift toward higher-end, more-profitable models. On their recent 2Q earnings calls, the majority of ODMs noted that 2H NB builds will be weaker than 1H, which is atypical of historical seasonality (historically NB builds are 2H>1H). We forecast August NB builds at 9.0mn (+10% q/q, -20% y/y) .
We lower our 3Q notebook build estimate by 6% to 27.3mn units (-10% q/q, -
20% y/y), after factoring in latest guidance from the ODMs post 2Q earnings call. This 10% sequential decline is sub-seasonal vs. the 15-year average seasonality of +5% q/q in 3Q. Actual shipments will remain reliant on component availability, but we continue to hear about constraints and expect this to continue to cap low-end notebook model builds. Quanta commented on its recent earnings call that 2Q is typically the peak season for Chromebooks, but due to Chromebook's target market being more price sensitive, as well as component constraints, Chromebook demand this year in 2Q was sub-seasonal, accounting for <10% of total notebooks builds during the quarter.
Exhibit 1 : Monthly NB shipments for top five NB ODMs
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. "Others" are other leaders.
Feb 25
1,500|
2.200
25€
lIVC
IVD|
1.700
Update
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Howard Kao
Equity Analyst
Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2989
Irene Yen
Research Associate
Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2869
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Andy Meng, CFA
Equity Analyst
Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com
+852 2239-7689
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific
Industry View
In-Line
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Shipment (unit: k)
Quanta
Wistron
Others
Compal
Pegatron
Total
QoQ %
Quanta
Wistron
Others
Compal
Pegatron
Total
YoY%
Quanta
Wistron
Others
Compal
Pegatron
Total
1Q24
10,500
4,600
4,500
1Q25
10,800
4,900
5,000
2026
11,500
5,500
5,400
3025
12,700
6,400
5,400
2025
12,100
5,900
5,600
4025
10,900
6,900
5,300
3Q24
12.600
5,200
5,200
4Q24
11,100
5,300
5,400
1Q26
10,000
6,100
5,400
2Q24
11,700
5,100
4,900
M
-10%
-6%
-5%
-3%
18%
2%
-1%
-9%
1%
16%
31%
13%
-7%
11%
0%
0%
-2%
-1%
-5%
22%
4%
-4%
0%
6%
-11%
-1%
-6%
-21%
-7%
7%
0%
20%
-6%
18%
5%
-10%
-3%
-6%
3%
7%
11%
-7%
22%
3%
1%
26%
12%
3%
16%
14%
-18%
17%
2%
0%
1%
3%
1%
23%
4%
-14%
-3%
1%
-4%
0%
-5%
-2%
30%
-2%
-13%
-13%
-25%
-10%
-7%
24%
8%
-16%
5%
-3%
4%
-5%
-7%
-4%
-13%
3Q26E
9,500
4,800
4,900
6,400
27,300
1,700
-17%
-13%
-9%
3%
-3%
-10%
-25%
-25%
-9%
-10%
3026E
11,000
4,700
5,000
6,400
1,800
28.900
-4%
-15%
%
- 13%
-27%
-7%
-10%
Exhibit 2: Quarterly NB shipments for top five NB ODMs
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. "Others" are other leaders.
Diff.
-14%
2%
-2%
0%
-6%
-6%
M