報告_MS_NVL72機櫃出貨追蹤_20261012

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M Idea October 12, 2026 01:46 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

GB200 and GB300 NVL72 Racks in September 2026; Introduce 2027 Rack Forecast

e provide monthly/quarterly rack shipment forecasts for ODMs. ithin the major Server ODMs, our order of preference is istron > Hon Hai > Quanta, based on upside to PT.

Key Takeaways

• We estimate GB200/300 rack o tp t in September at ~6.5K (-23% m/m).
• Q anta shipped 1.55-1.60K GB200/GB300 racks.
• Wistron shipped 1.25-1.30K GB200/GB300 racks.
• Hon Hai shipped ~2.7K GB200/300 racks.
• We also introd ce o r 2027 forecast at 90.4K racks (+10% y/y).

We introduce 2027 forecast at 90.4K racks (+10% y y) vs our 2026 forecast now at 82K racks: This year is a strong one for downstream rack assemblers, with rack shipments p ~209% y/y, b t we expect rack shipments to grow another ~10% y/y to reach 90.4K in CY27. For CY27, o r forecast implies Hon Hai will be a share gainer with rack share p to 43% (from 37% in CY26), with Q anta staying nchanged at 26% and Wistron's share p slightly to 24% (from 23% in CY26).

Quanta (2382.TW, OW): September reven e was NT$325.3B (-23% m/m, +77% y/y). We attrib te the m/m decline mainly to lower GB200/300 rack shipments at 1.551.60K racks (-38% m/m), despite being offset slightly by higher NB shipments at 4.2M nits (+62% m/m, -9% y/y). In 3Q, Q anta shipped ~6.2K racks (+3% q/q), which came in slightly lower than o r forecast of ~6.4K racks. Total 3Q reven e reached ~NT$1,116M (+8% q/q, +125% y/y), which is 15% above MSe b t in-line with the Street. For 2026, we forecast Q anta to ship 20.9K racks, and we introd ce o r preliminary 2027 forecast at 23.5K (+12% y/y).

Wistron (3231.TW, OW): September reven e was NT$380.8B (-17% m/m, +87% y/ y). We attrib te the m/m decline to: 1) lower GB200/300 server comp ting tray shipments (1.25-1.30K rack eq ivalents, by o r estimates, down approximately 46% m/m), despite higher Wiwynn reven e at ~NT$172.6B (+20% m/m, +100% y/y) and higher NB shipments at 1.5M nits (+7% m/m, -32% y/y), flat DT shipments at 500K (flat m/m, -44% y/y), and higher monitor shipments at 950K (+27% m/m, +6% y/y). In 3Q, Wistron shipped ~4.8K racks (+22% q/q), which came in slightly lower than o r forecast of ~5.1K racks. Total 3Q reven e reached ~NT$1,149M (+28% q/q, +102% y/y), which is 10% above MSe and 9% above the Street. For 2026, we forecast Wistron to ship 19.13K racks, and we introd ce o r preliminary 2027 forecast at 22K (+15% y/y).

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Howard Kao

Equity Analyst H ward.Ka @m rganstanley.c m

Irene Yen

Equity Analyst Irene.Yen@m rganstanley.c m

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Andy Meng, CFA

Equity Analyst

Andy.Meng@m rganstanley.c m

+886 2 2730-2989

+886 2 2730-2869

+852 2239-7689

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific Industry View In-Line

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M Idea

Hon Hai (2317.TW, OW): September reven e was NT$1,158.6B (+26% m/m, +38% y/ y), with cons mer segment reven e seeing the strongest m/m growth, followed by components and other prod cts, clo d and networking prod cts, and lastly comp ting. We model HH's GB200/300 rack shipments at 2.7K (+4% m/m). This brings total 3Q rack shipments at 7.8K racks (+1% q/q). For 2026, we forecast Foxconn to ship 30.3K racks, and we introd ce o r preliminary 2027 forecast at 38.8K (+28% y/y).

M Idea

NVL72 Exhibits

We believe actual rack deliveries to end-customers are likely lower than these numbers because we include Wistron's computing tray (L10) rack equivalent (without accounting or rack assembly and test times or L11).

Exhibi 1: Industry-wide NVL72-equivalent quarterly rack utput, by maj r ODMs (2026)

Exhibi 2: Industry-wide NVL72-equivalent quarterly rack utput, by maj r ODMs (2027)

GB200/300 NVL72 racks by major ODMs (000s)

S urce: M rgan Stanley Research estimates.

S urce: M rgan Stanley Research estimates.

Exhibi 3:

Industry-wide NVL72-equivalent m nthly rack utput, by maj r ODMs (2025-2026)

Hon Hai Quanta Wistron Wiwynn Others

S urce: M rgan Stanley Research estimates.

M Idea

Exhibi 4: NVL72 rack supply share, by maj r ODMs (2026)

NVL72-equivalent rack supply share (2026)

S urce: M rgan Stanley Research estimates.

Exhibi 5: NVL72 rack supply share, by maj r ODMs (2027)

S urce: M rgan Stanley Research estimates.

M Idea

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Hon Hai Precision (2317.TW)

Base case scenario val e, derived from a resid al income val ation model. O r key ass mptions incl de a cost of eq ity of 8.5%, a medi m-term growth rate of 13%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-expected iPhone sell-thro gh
• n Faster progress in AI server b siness
• n Faster EV b siness development progress
• n Any new M&A activity that co ld improve sentiment

Risks to Downside

• n Lower iPhone sell-thro gh
• n Smaller profit contrib tion from AI b siness
• n Slower EV b siness development progress
• n Geopolitical developments that co ld negatively affect foreign investment

Quanta Co puter Inc. (2382.TW)

Base case, resid al income model. Key ass mptions incl de a cost of eq ity of 9.0% (beta of 1.2, eq ity premi m of 6.0% and risk-free rate of 1.5%), an 8.5% medi m-term growth rate, and a 3% terminal growth rate.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger-than-expected NB demand
• n Stronger-than-expected Apple Watch demand
• n Stronger-than-expected server demand
• n Faster-than-expected AI server penetration

Risks to Downside

• nWeaker-than-expected NB demand
• n Softer-than-expected Apple Watch demand
• nWeak margin performance owing to rising labor costs and sales shortfalls
• n Fierce price competition in the mega data center segment
• n Slower-than-expected AI server penetration

Wistron Corporation (3231.TW)

Base case, resid al income val ation. Key ass mptions: 8.7% cost of eq ity, 7.0% medi mterm growth rate and 3% terminal growth rate.

Risks to Upside

• n Faster-than-expected divestit re of cons mer electronics b siness
• n Stronger-than-expected NB demand
• nMargin expansion from better prod ct mix

M Idea

• n Faster-than-expected AI server penetration

Risks to Downside

• n Slower-than-expected divestit re of cons mer electronics b siness
• nWeaker-than-expected NB demand
• nMargin contraction from sales shortfall and fierce competition
• n Slower-than-expected AI server penetration

M Idea

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