PDF 原檔：報告_MS_NB月度出貨資料_20261014_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-19）
本報告無抽圖（attachment 無對應 PNG）；內容為 Exhibit 1 月度與 Exhibit 2 季度 NB 出貨表，數字見原始內容。MS 原文字元缺漏（如 ship ents、y/y 等「m」被吃掉）屬 PDF 解析現象，lib 引用時已回核表格數字。
原始內容
M Update October 14, 2026 09:00 PM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
Monthly Databook: Sep-26 Shipments -2% vs. MSe; Lowering 4 e by 3%
Key Takeaways
- Top five ODMs' Septe ber 2026 NB ship ents were 9.7M units (+32% / , - 20% y/y), 2% below our esti ate.
- Total 3Q26 NB builds ca e in at 25.2M (-17% q/q, -26% y/y).
- We see October 2026 NB builds at 6.8M units (-30% / , -33% y/y).
- We lower our 4Q26 NB build esti ate by 3% to 23.1M units (-8% q/q, -29% y/y).
- Our top five ODMs' CY26 NB build esti ate is ~107.8M units (-16% y/y).
Overall September ODM NB shipments came in 2% below MSe Quarter-end pullins drove notebook ship ents up 32% / , although volu es were 2% below MSe, with weakness ainly co ing fro Wistron and Co pal, and to a lesser extent, Pegatron, reflecting slower NB ship ents fro Dell, as Dell accounted for ~60% of Co pal's NB ship ent, and ~55% of Wistron's in CY25, on our esti ates. Thus total 3Q NB builds came in at 25.2M units (-17% q/q, -26% y/y). This sequential decline is sub-seasonal vs. the 15Y average seasonality of +5% q/q in 3Q.
Pull-forward de and appears to have co e to an end, channel partners and distributors have stocked up on inventory, and OEMs are slowing their sales into the channel. We believe this is why our conversations with the ODMs suggest a slightly weaker 4Q volu e outlook than previously expected, despite favorable ix shift. Thus, we lower our 4Q NB build estimate by 3% to 23.1M (-8% q/q, -29% y/y). This sequential decline is sub-seasonal (despite an already lowered base in 3Q) vs. the 15Y average seasonality of flat q/q in 4Q. We forecast October NB builds at 6.8M (-30% / , -33% y/y). Our revised forecasts imply CY26 builds of ~107.8M units (-16% y/y) for the top five Taiwan NB ODMs.
Exhibit 1: M nthly NB shipments f r t p five NB ODMs
| Shipment (unit: k) | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Sep-26E | Diff. | Oct-26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta | 2,700 | 2,000 | 5,300 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 4,500 | 2,800 | 2,600 | 4,200 | 3,600 | 17% | 2,500 |
| Wistron | 1,700 | 1,600 | 2,800 | 1,800 | 1,700 | 2,000 | 1,600 | 1,400 | 1,500 | 1,700 | -12% | 1,200 |
| Others | 1,700 | 1,500 | 2,200 | 1,500 | 1,500 | 2,400 | 1,600 | 1,500 | 1,800 | 1,700 | 6% | 1,300 |
| Compal | 1,600 | 1,500 | 2,800 | 1,800 | 2,000 | 2,400 | 1,800 | 1,400 | 1,700 | 2,300 | -26% | 1,400 |
| Pegatron | 700 | 425 | 675 | 525 | 575 | 650 | 400 | 425 | 460 | 575 | -20% | 375 |
| Total | 8,400 | 7,025 | 13,775 | 9,125 | 9,275 | 11,950 | 8,200 | 7,325 | 9,660 | 9,875 | -2% | 6,775 |
| MoM % | ||||||||||||
| Quanta | -31% | -26% | 165% | -34% | 0% | 29% | -38% | -7% | 62% | 38% | -40% | |
| Wistron | -35% | -6% | 75% | -36% | -6% | 18% | -20% | -13% | 7% | 21% | -20% | |
| Others | -15% | -12% | 47% | -32% | 0% | 60% | -33% | -6% | 20% | 13% | -28% | |
| Compal | -33% | -6% | 87% | -36% | 11% | 20% | -25% | -22% | 21% | 64% | -18% | |
| Pegatron | -24% | -39% | 59% | -22% | 10% | 13% | -38% | 6% | 8% | 35% | -18% | |
| Total | -29% | -16% | 96% | -34% | 2% | 29% | -31% | -11% | 32% | 35% | -30% | |
| YoY% | ||||||||||||
| Quanta | -4% | -35% | 8% | 6% | -8% | -10% | -30% | -37% | -9% | -22% | -29% | |
| Wistron | 13% | 7% | 47% | 6% | -6% | -17% | -20% | -36% | -32% | -23% | -43% | |
| Others | 13% | -6% | 16% | -12% | -17% | 14% | -6% | -17% | -5% | -11% | -19% | |
| Compal | -20% | -29% | -3% | -18% | -17% | -4% | -22% | -39% | -32% | -8% | -33% | |
| Pegatron | 15% | -26% | -4% | -14% | -26% | -34% | -47% | -48% | -44% | -30% | -52% | |
| Total | 0% | -21% | 12% | -4% | -12% | -8% | -24% | -35% | -20% | -18% | -33% |
S urce: C mpany data, M rgan Stanley Research. E = M rgan Stanley Research estimates. "Others" are ther leaders.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Howard Kao
Equity Analyst
+886 2 2730-2989
Irene Yen
Equity Analyst Irene.Yen@m rganstanley.c m
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Andy Meng, CFA
Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@m rganstanley.c m
+886 2 2730-2869
+852 2239-7689
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific
Industry View In-Line
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Update
Exhibit : Quarterly NB shipments f r t p five NB ODMs
| Shipment (unit: k) | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 3Q26E | Diff. | 4Q26E | 4Q26E | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta | 10,500 | 11,700 | 12,600 | 11,100 | 10,800 | 12,100 | 12,700 | 10,900 | 10,000 | 11,500 | 9,600 | 9,000 | 7% | 8,500 | 8,500 | 0% |
| Wistron | 4,600 | 5,100 | 5,200 | 5,300 | 4,900 | 5,900 | 6,400 | 6,900 | 6,100 | 5,500 | 4,500 | 4,700 | -4% | 4,000 | 4,200 | -5% |
| Others | 4,500 | 4,900 | 5,200 | 5,400 | 5,000 | 5,600 | 5,400 | 5,300 | 5,400 | 5,400 | 4,900 | 4,800 | 2% | 4,500 | 4,500 | 0% |
| Compal | 7,500 | 8,700 | 8,300 | 7,800 | 7,000 | 7,100 | 7,100 | 6,800 | 5,900 | 6,200 | 4,900 | 5,500 | -11% | 4,800 | 5,300 | -9% |
| Pegatron | 1,550 | 2,030 | 2,475 | 1,950 | 1,885 | 2,375 | 2,400 | 2,410 | 1,800 | 1,750 | 1,285 | 1,400 | -8% | 1,250 | 1,350 | -7% |
| Total | 28,650 | 32,430 | 33,775 | 31,550 | 29,585 | 33,075 | 34,000 | 32,310 | 29,200 | 30,350 | 25,185 | 25,400 | -1% | 23,050 | 23,850 | -3% |
| QoQ % | ||||||||||||||||
| Quanta | 1% | 11% | 8% | -12% | -3% | 12% | 5% | -14% | -8% | 15% | -17% | -22% | -11% | -6% | ||
| Wistron | -13% | 11% | 2% | 2% | -8% | 20% | 8% | 8% | -12% | -10% | -18% | -15% | -11% | -11% | ||
| Others | 0% | 9% | 6% | 4% | -7% | 12% | -4% | -2% | 2% | 0% | -9% | -11% | -8% | -6% | ||
| Compal | -10% | 16% | -5% | -6% | -10% | 1% | 0% | -4% | -13% | 5% | -21% | -11% | -2% | -4% | ||
| Pegatron | -6% | 31% | 22% | -21% | -3% | 26% | 1% | 0% | -25% | -3% | -27% | -20% | -3% | -4% | ||
| Total | -5% | 13% | 4% | -7% | -6% | 12% | 3% | -5% | -10% | 4% | -17% | -16% | -8% | -6% | ||
| YoY% | ||||||||||||||||
| Quanta | -3% | -7% | -4% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 1% | -2% | -7% | -5% | -24% | -29% | -22% | -22% | ||
| Wistron | 18% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 16% | 23% | 30% | 24% | -7% | -30% | -27% | -42% | -39% | ||
| Others | 2% | 0% | 6% | 20% | 11% | 14% | 4% | -2% | 8% | -4% | -9% | -11% | -15% | -15% | ||
| Compal | -1% | 0% | -11% | -6% | -7% | -18% | -14% | -13% | -16% | -13% | -31% | -23% | -29% | -22% | ||
| Pegatron | -9% | -2% | -1% | 18% | 22% | 17% | -3% | 24% | -5% | -26% | -46% | -42% | -48% | -44% | ||
| Total | 1% | -1% | -4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | -1% | -8% | -26% | -25% | -29% | -26% |
S urce: C mpany data, M rgan Stanley Research. E = M rgan Stanley Research estimates. "Others" are ther leaders.
M Update
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Hardware
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (10/13/ 0 6) |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Meng, CFA | ||
| AAC Te hnologies Holdings (2018.HK) | O (01/29/2024) | HK$36.56 |
| A elink Te hnologies Co. Ltd. (002281.SZ) | U (05/12/2022) | Rmb145.86 |
| BYD Ele troni s (0285.HK) | O (04/28/2023) | HK$22.96 |
M Update M Update St ck Ratings are subject t change. Please see latest research f r each c mpany.
| China TransInfo Te hnology Co Ltd (002373.SZ) | E (07/18/2023) | Rmb7.42 |
|---|---|---|
| Dahua Te hnology Co. Ltd. (002236.SZ) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb15.27 |
| Eoptolink Te hnology In Ltd (300502.SZ) | O (02/27/2026) | Rmb351.30 |
| Genius Ele troni Opti al Co. Ltd. (3406.TW) | E (10/13/2026) | NT$1,065.00 |
| GoerTek In (002241.SZ) | E (08/14/2026) | Rmb20.63 |
| Gosun n Te hnology Group Co Ltd (300098.SZ) | U (11/07/2022) | Rmb4.16 |
| HIKVision Digital Te hnology (002415.SZ) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb33.62 |
| Largan Pre ision (3008.TW) | O (10/13/2026) | NT$6,880.00 |
| LianChuang Ele troni Te hnology Co Ltd (002036.SZ) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb5.74 |
| Lingyi Ite h Guangdong Co (002600.SZ) | U (04/23/2025) | Rmb10.77 |
| Lingyi Ite h Guangdong Co (1688.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$4.85 |
| Luxshare Pre ision Industry Co., Ltd. (2475.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$48.86 |
| Luxshare Pre ision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475.SZ) | O (10/24/2016) | Rmb46.15 |
| OFILM Group Co Ltd (002456.SZ) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb6.37 |
| Q Te hnology (Group) Company Ltd (1478.HK) | U (03/23/2026) | HK$4.84 |
| Que tel Wireless Solutions Co Ltd (603236.SS) | E (10/09/2024) | Rmb70.39 |
| Shanghai Conant Opti al Co Ltd (2276.HK) | O (04/10/2026) | HK$33.40 |
| Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co Ltd (688036.SS) | E (03/23/2026) | Rmb48.94 |
| Sunny Opti al (2382.HK) | E (03/23/2026) | HK$58.85 |
| Suzhou TFC Opti al Communi ation Co Ltd. (300394.SZ) | E (11/06/2025) | Rmb246.70 |
| Wingte h Te hnology Co Ltd (600745.SS) | U (05/18/2026) | Rmb14.23 |
| Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK) | O (04/14/2021) | HK$25.04 |
| Yangtze Opti al Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (601869.SS) | U (10/13/2021) | Rmb370.48 |
| Yangtze Opti al Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (6869.HK) | O (07/15/2026) | HK$150.60 |
| Yongxin Opti s Co Ltd (603297.SS) | E (11/15/2022) | Rmb100.25 |
| Zhejiang Crystal-Opte h Co Ltd (002273.SZ) | O (11/15/2022) | Rmb21.04 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (300308.SZ) | O (09/07/2026) | Rmb735.00 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (3308.HK) | O (09/07/2026) | HK$890.00 |
| ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) | O (06/04/2026) | HK$20.12 |
| ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ) | E (06/04/2026) | Rmb28.02 |
| Derrick Yang | ||
| A ton Te hnology Corporation (2345.TW) | O (06/06/2024) | NT$2,050.00 |
| Advante h (2395.TW) | O (01/20/2021) | NT$714.00 |
| AirTAC International (1590.TW) | O (04/16/2025) | NT$1,185.00 |
| Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (3017.TW) | O (07/30/2024) | NT$3,315.00 |
| AU Optroni s (2409.TW) | E (02/10/2026) | NT$36.25 |
| Auras Te hnology Co Ltd (3324.TWO) | E (05/04/2023) | NT$1,475.00 |
| Bizlink (3665.TW) | O (03/10/2025) | NT$2,235.00 |
| BOE Te hnology (000725.SZ) | O (09/06/2019) | Rmb5.35 |
| Chenbro (8210.TW) | O (07/23/2025) | NT$853.00 |
| Chroma Ate In . (2360.TW) | O (10/05/2021) | NT$2,250.00 |
| Delta Ele troni s In . (2308.TW) | O (07/13/2017) | NT$1,785.00 |
| E Ink Holdings In . (8069.TWO) | E (08/10/2026) | NT$147.50 |
| Ennostar In (3714.TW) | U (09/23/2022) | NT$64.20 |
| Fositek Corp (6805.TW) | O (06/25/2025) | NT$2,195.00 |
| Hiwin Te hnologies Corp. (2049.TW) | O (03/30/2026) | NT$333.00 |
| Innolux (3481.TW) | E (04/07/2025) | NT$50.90 |
| King Slide Works Co. Ltd. (2059.TW) | O (11/08/2023) | NT$10,005.00 |
| Lens Te hnology (300433.SZ) | E (07/22/2020) | Rmb26.33 |
| Lite-On Te hnology (2301.TW) | E (01/15/2025) | NT$283.00 |
| TCL Corp. (000100.SZ) | E (04/07/2025) | Rmb4.51 |
| Tianma Mi roele troni s (000050.SZ) | U (01/24/2018) | Rmb6.08 |
| Wuhan Jing e Ele troni Group Co Ltd (300567.SZ) | E (11/26/2021) | Rmb167.28 |
| Howard Kao | ||
| A er In . (2353.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$32.10 |
| Asustek Computer In . (2357.TW) | U (11/16/2025) | NT$990.00 |
|---|---|---|
| Cat her Te hnology (2474.TW) | U (11/17/2025) | NT$196.50 |
| Compal Ele troni s (2324.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$37.00 |
| Elite Material Co. (2383.TW) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$5,520.00 |
| FIT Hon Teng Ltd (6088.HK) | O (11/03/2025) | HK$4.38 |
| Fox onn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. (601138.SS) | O (07/10/2019) | Rmb52.29 |
| Giga-Byte Te hnology Co. Ltd. (2376.TW) | E (11/16/2025) | NT$356.00 |
| Gold Cir uit Ele troni s Ltd. (2368.TW) | O (10/06/2022) | NT$1,260.00 |
| Hon Hai Pre ision (2317.TW) | O (03/15/2024) | NT$243.00 |
| Inspur Ele troni Information (000977.SZ) | E (08/28/2023) | Rmb61.65 |
| Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd. (1888.HK) | O (09/14/2026) | HK$44.70 |
| LandMark Optoele troni s Corporation (3081.TWO) | E (03/26/2026) | NT$2,725.00 |
| Lenovo (0992.HK) | O (07/10/2026) | HK$31.10 |
| Lotes Co. Ltd. (3533.TW) | E (05/12/2025) | NT$1,935.00 |
| Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,430.00 |
| Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW) | E (03/25/2026) | NT$100.00 |
| Quanta Computer In . (2382.TW) | O (05/01/2023) | NT$323.00 |
| Shengyi Te hnology Co Ltd. (600183.SS) | E (05/26/2022) | Rmb122.54 |
| Shennan Cir uits Co Ltd (002916.SZ) | E (08/24/2023) | Rmb337.24 |
| Unimi ron (3037.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,185.00 |
| Visual Photoni s Epitaxy Co Ltd (2455.TW) | E (09/11/2023) | NT$523.00 |
| Wistron Corporation (3231.TW) | O (07/12/2023) | NT$187.00 |
| Wiwynn Corp (6669.TW) | O (11/10/2025) | NT$2,115.00 |
| Yageo Corp. (2327.TW) | O (10/28/2025) | NT$627.00 |
| Zhen Ding (4958.TW) | ++ | NT$567.00 |
| Irene Yen | ||
| Co-Te h Development Corp. (8358.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$493.00 |
| Taiwan Union Te hnology Corporation (6274.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$1,655.00 |
- Hist rical prices are n t split adjusted.