PDF 原檔：報告_MS_面板報價7月_20260720_original.pdf
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原始內容
M July 20, 2026 04:26 PM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
TFT-LCD Panel Prices for July 2026: TVs -2%, Monitors and NBs Flat MoM
TV panel prices started to decline in July, and we expect IT panel prices to follow from 4Q26. Overall, we believe it is still premature to value panel stocks based on the potential glass opportunities in advanced packaging.
Key Takeaways
- TV panel prices declined 2% MoM in July, mainly due to softer panel order momentum following earlier procurement in 1H26.
- IT panel prices remained flat MoM in July, as panel makers remained unwilling to concede on pricing amid elevated component costs despite softer demand.
- For panel stocks, we do not find the risk-reward attractive based on the potential adoption of glass in advanced packaging.
TV panel prices fell 2% MoM in July: Mainstream 32", 43", 55", 65", and 75" TV panel prices dropped 3%, 3%, 2%, 2%, 1%, respectively, for the month of July. This is consistent with our view. We continue to expect TV panel prices to decline over the coming months, as TV panel shipments in 2H26 are likely to fall below seasonal levels following the pull-forward in demand during 1H26 ahead of major sporting events. This could weaken panel makers' bargaining power in price negotiations and create downward pressure on TV panel prices. That said, supply-side discipline should help prevent significant price declines during this period. We believe the next key checkpoint will be demand in Aug-Sep, when brands begin preparing for yearend promotions. On a quarterly average basis, we expect TV panel prices to decline by a low single-digit % QoQ in 3Q26.
IT panel prices remained flat in July: Monitor and notebook panel prices were flat MoM during the month. Both segments are experiencing slower demand in 2H26 as brand customers pulled forward restocking into 1H26. However, panel makers continue to face significant component cost pressures and remain unwilling to concede on pricing in the near term. On a quarterly average basis, we expect IT panel prices to remain flat QoQ in 3Q26.
Risk/reward less attractive: We view valuations as fair post-recent correction, particularly for Taiwan names AUO (2409.TW; 1.3x P/B) and Innolux (3481.TW; 1.7x P/B), as incremental contributions from advanced packaging are likely to take longer to materialize and competition could intensify as the industry moves toward mass production, with multiple supply chain players targeting the opportunity. In China, we prefer BOE (000725.SZ; 1.6x P/B) over TCL (000100.SZ; 1.7x P/B) on BOE's scale advantage and faster progress in glass core substrates.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Derrick Yang
Equity Analyst
Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2862
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+
Shawn Kim
Equity Analyst
Shawn.Kim@morganstanley.com
+44 20 7677-1018
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Vivi Huang
Research Associate
Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2860
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Andy Meng, CFA
Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com
+852 2239-7689
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific Industry View
In-Line
S. Korea Technology
Asia Pacific
Industry View
Attractive
Exhibit 1 : TFT-LCD TV Panel Price Trends
Source: Trendforce, Morgan Stanley Research
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.