報告_MS_雲端半導體_20260727

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M July 27, 2026 06:36 AM GMT

Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Asia Pacific

Greater China Cloud Semis: Read-across from INTC earnings call

Intel's commentary suggests a positive outlook for cloud semi names in Greater China, driven by strong customer demand for x86 server CPU. We are OW on Aspeed and Montage.

Key takeaways from Intel's 2Q26 earnings call:

• Data Center and AI (DCAI) continues to see demand acceleration across cloud and enterprise, as customers increasingly recognize the critical role of x86 CPUs in AI infra. The outlook was strengthened by additional strategic customer wins and long-term agreements in 2Q. The challenge now is to grow supply to meet customer demand. Intel's custom ASIC (ApplicationSpecific Integrated Circuit) business currently has a US$2bn run rate and Intel management said it expects a US$4bn run rate in the near future.
• Customers continue to signal a strong and sustainable spending environment, driven by AI compute demand. Industry-wide supply constraints across wafers, memory, and substrate remain the dominant challenge. The outlook for server CPU demand has improved, and Intel management now forecasts strong double-digit growth for the server CPU industry globally this year and next, with momentum extending into 2028.

Our thoughts: We believe Intel's commentary is positive for the Greater China cloud semi names that we cover, including Aspeed and Montage, especially given Intel's positive feedback on strong customer demand. For more details, see our recent cloud semis update.

Update

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For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

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Valuation Methodology and Risks

Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO)

Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions:

• n Cost of equity of 9.8% (2.0% risk-free rate, 6% risk premium, 1.3 beta)
• n Medium-term growth rate of 21.4%
• n Terminal growth rate of 5.5%
• n Cash payout ratio of 85%

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger cloud demand
• n Faster-than-expected spec migration
• n Mild competition

Risks to Downside

• n Softening cloud demand
• n Slower-than-expected spec migration
• n Intensified competition
• n Further policy tightening in China

Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809.HK)

Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions:

• n 8.4% CoE (1.2 beta, 3.0% risk-free rate, and 4.5% risk premium)
• n 30% payout ratio
• n 19.3% medium-term growth rate
• n 4% terminal growth rate

These assumptions reflect cloud capex growth, DRAM interface technology migration, and Montage's strong position in China's datacenter semi localization. We then apply an exchange rate of 1.15 HKD:1 RMB, assuming no H-share discount vs the A-share.

Risks to Upside

• n Faster-than-expected phase-out of US peers
• n Faster-than-expected spec migration

Risks to Downside

• n Weaker-than-expected cloud demand
• n Slower-than-expected DRAM interface technology migration
• n Delay in new product launches

Montage Technology Co Ltd (688008.SS)

Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions:

• n 8.4% CoE (1.2 beta, 3.0% risk-free rate, and 4.5% risk premium)
• n 30% payout ratio

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• n 19.3% medium-term growth rate
• n 4% terminal growth rate

We believe these assumptions are justified, given the cloud capex growth, DRAM interface technology migration, and Montage's strong position in China's datacenter semi localization.

Risks to Upside

• n Faster-than-expected phase-out of US peers
• n Faster-than-expected spec migration

Risks to Downside

• n Weaker-than-expected cloud demand
• n Slower-than-expected DRAM interface technology migration
• n Delay in new product launches

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Disclosure Section

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