報告_MS_智邦2345_Celestica借鏡_20261028

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原始內容

M Update October 28, 2026 12:55 AM GMT

Accton Technology Corporation | Asia Pacific

Read-across from Celestica's 3Q26 Results

We see positive implications for Accton given demand strength (1 6T migration amid sustaining 800G) and breadth (scale up opportunities) of ethernet switches in future

Celestica (CLS.N, not covered) 3Q26 res lts:

• 3Q26 revenue of US$5,830mn (+24% QoQ/+83% YoY), non-GAA operating margin of 8.5%, a record high, and non-GAA E S of US$3.30 (+30% QoQ/ +109% YoY).
• ° Higher than guidance and 7%/13% above consensus for revenue/earnings, respectively.
• ° Drivers: Stronger CCS revenue (84% of the mix in 3Q26), including networking and compute/storage growth of 68% and 242% YoY, respectively, vs. guidance 60% and 190% YoY.
• 4Q26 revenue guided at US$6,275-6,575mn (+10% QoQ/+76% YoY at the midpoint) vs. consensus at US$6,396mn, management raising 2026 target to US$21bn for revenue (+69% YoY vs. prior US$20.5bn) and US$11.55 for nonGAA E S (+91% YoY vs. prior US$11.3).
• ° Driven by hyperscaler-led 800G demand and ramping 1.6T programs, along with continued AI compute and storage demand.
• 2027 revenue guided at US$40bn (+90% YoY), non-GAA O M at 9.0% (+0.6ppt YoY) and non-GAA E S at US$21.5 (+86% YoY)
• ° It expects CCS to grow 110% (1.6T/800G on networking and ASIC ramp on compute/storage) and ATS at 10%, with revenue skewed to 2H on multiple large ramps and momentum likely sustaining into 2028.
• luggable should remain the mainstream interconnect solution, while C O might pick up more meaningfully from 3.2T, per company.
• CLS expects ethernet scale up could represent new opportunities in future.

O r view:

• While the customer profiles are different, we still see positive implications from Celestica's comments for Accton regarding demand strength (1.6T migration amid sustaining 800G) and breadth (scale up opportunities) of ethernet switches.
• We stay constructive on Accton, and believe it will continue to benefit from the secular growth in network switches amid increasing data traffic, spec upgrades, and a wider customer base as well as the AI accelerator modules on the initiatives for compute diversity.

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Accton Technology Corporation(2345.TW, 2345 TT)

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§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Researc estimates

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M Update

AlphaSignals Catalyst Event Reaction

Source:Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc M Update

More Takeaways

Further comments from Celestica:

• Demand visibility is lengthening and it is now having conversations with customers for 2029/2030 projects
• Still seeing lots of pluggables during 1.6T, while it expects C O to play out more prominently in 3.2T.
• It has won a new hyperscaler program to co-design and manufacture a 1.6T rackscale C O networking solution, with production scheduled to ramp in late 2027, per management.

M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Accton Technology Corporation (2345.TW)

Base case, /E, which we believe better captures the company's earnings growth momentum. We assign a target /E of 30x to our 2027 E S estimate, which we view as justified by an operating profit CAGR of 48% for 2025-28, based on our estimates. This implies a EG of around 0.6, vs. its average of 0.7 over 2019-25, when the stock was trading at a /E of 22x for an operating profit CAGR of 32%.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger data center capex
• n Faster network switch spec migration
• n InfiniBand losing share in AI networks
• n Stronger custom AI accelerator growth
• n Stronger ODM direct business model adoption

Risks to Do nside

• nWeaker data center capex
• n Slower network switch spec migration
• n InfiniBand taking more share in AI networks
• n Softer custom AI accelerator growth
• n Softer ODM direct business model adoption

M Update

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