PDF 原檔：報告_MS_日月光3711_20260730_original.pdf
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174KB | 真資料圖 | 先進封裝營收推導表格：Nvidia/AMD/Google/Others 各產品出貨量（k units）、單顆美元含量假設、各產品先進封裝營收（US$mn），彙總 Total Revenue from oS outsource / full CoWoS-Like process，並對照 ASE LEAP guidance 與 MSe LEAP revenue |
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原始內容
M July 30, 2026 02:34 PM GMT
ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. | Asia Pacific
Strong 2027 AI revenue guidance; stay OW
| What's Changed ASE Technology Holding | From | To |
|---|---|---|
| Price Target | NT$558.00 | NT$628.00 |
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Strengthens our thesis
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Management raised 2027 LEAP revenue guidance to at least US $7.5bn, implying robust AI revenue and demand for advanced packaging/testing. We raise our price target to NT$628 and reiterate OW.
2027 LEAP revenue guidance raised from US$5.5bn to at least US$7.5bn; we now forecast US$8.5bn: On the July 30 earnings call, management said that 2026 LEAP (leading-edge advanced packaging and testing) is tracking ahead and raised guidance from US$3.5bn to US$3.7bn. Management also lifted the 2027 LEAP target from US $5.5bn to at least US$7.5bn, a strong beat vs. both our estimate and the buy-side bogey of ~US$6bn. We attribute this to strong AI-related demand, including strong server CPU, which has shown meaningful development over the past quarter. We now expect LEAP revenue of US$3.7bn in 2026 and US$8.5bn in 2027, mostly driven by strong CPU (full process) and ASIC/GPU demand (oS). See Exhibit 4 for our detailed LEAP revenue breakdown.
Another rise in 2026e capex; 2027e capex could remain high: In our prior report ASE: Strong AI customer demand to trigger price hike, we noted that Taiwan's OSAT capacity is full and that ASE and KYEC are devoting record-high capex to expand. As expected, the company raised 2026e capex again from US$8.5bn to US$10.5bn. It is simultaneously building 13 greenfield and seven brownfield sites. Management indicated that 2027e capex could remain high, suggesting extremely strong demand in the following years and limited concern about potential demand disruption from Intel EMIB. This also echoes TSMC's latest earnings call, in which it welcomed Intel's role in helping alleviate advanced packaging supply constraints.
Gross margin continues to expand: ASE's ATM margin expansion is ahead of our expectation. The company said it is likely to exceed the high end of its structural range (30%) by 4Q26 and expects margins to keep rising sequentially in 2027. We attribute the expansion to higher LEAP exposure, price hikes, and higher utilization from legacy process as well.
Raise price target to NT$628; stay OW: We view the implied target P/E of 21x for 2027e as attractive given the strong >70% earnings CAGR from 2025-2028e.
Meaningful upside
Financial results versus consensus
Meaningful revision higher
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Idea
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-2287 |
ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. (3711.TW, 3711 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | Industry View | Industry View | Industry View | Attractive |
| Price target | Price target | Price target | Price target | NT$628.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | 24 |
| Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026) | Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026) | Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026) | NT$505.00 | NT$505.00 |
| 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | NT$729.00-141.50 | NT$729.00-141.50 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$2,278,865 | NT$2,278,865 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EPS (NT$)** | 9.22 | 17.89 | 30.05 | 46.50 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | 16.84 | 26.95 | 40.85 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 8.70 | 16.86 | 24.63 | 32.18 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ bn) | 645.4 | 836.9 | 1,116.8 | 1,453.5 |
| P/E | 27.2 | 28.2 | 16.8 | 10.9 |
| ROE (%) | 11.8 | 21.2 | 31.0 | 40.0 |
| Div yld (%) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.