報告_MS_工業自動化亞德客1590上銀2049_20260625

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原始內容

M June 25, 2026 04:11 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

Automation - Read-across from JMTBA May 2026 Orders

In this report, we focus on final JMTBA orders, which we believe could be one of the catalysts for Airtac's and Hiwin's share prices.

Per the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association (JMTBA), headline orders dropped 6% MoM and grew 38% YoY in May 2026 (vs. -2% MoM/+45% YoY in April 2026), to ¥177bn.

• Domestic orders -8% MoM/+37% YoY (vs. -2% MoM/+43% YoY in April), to ¥45bn.
• Overseas orders -6% MoM/+38% YoY (vs. -2% MoM/+46% YoY in April), to ¥132bn.
• By region:
• ° China: -4% MoM/+66% YoY, to ¥51bn
• ° Europe: -17% MoM/+6% YoY, to ¥17bn
• ° North America: -9% MoM/+14% YoY, to ¥37bn

Our view:

• Order growth for all three regions continues to be robust on a YoY basis, consistent with the solid manufacturing PMIs, i.e., China, Europe, and North America at 50.0, 51.6, and 54.0 in May, vs. 50.3, 52.2, and 52.7 in April.
• We see order growth continuing to point to an upcycle scenario for all three major regions.
• On top of the overall segment recovery within automation:
• ° Airtac (1590.TW, OW) should benefit from its own share gains and incremental contribution from linear guides. Valuation appears undemanding at 21x 2027e P/E (vs. 25x average since 2020).
• ° Hiwin (2049.TW, OW) should show margin expansions in the coming quarters, supported by higher utilization and price hikes. We see potential share price upside as the stock now trades at 31x 2027e P/E (vs. peak cycle valuation of 35-40x).

Update

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Derrick Yang

Equity Analyst

Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2862

Vivi Huang

Research Associate

Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2860

Sharon Shih

Equity Analyst

Sharon.Shih@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2865

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific

Industry View

In-Line

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Catalyst Event Reaction

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Valuation Methodology and Risks

AirTAC International (1590.TW)

Base case, 30x 2027e P/E. We believe this methodology better captures earnings growth momentum for industrial automation component plays (market sentiment moves along with business cycles). As the industry enters an upcycle, we think applying a peak cycle valuation of 30x P/E is reasonable given the stronger business outlook.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger macroeconomic climate in China
• n Stronger-than-expected demand from industrial automation

Risks to Downside

• n Sharper economic downturn in China
• n Miniature linear guideway business development taking more time
• n Larger-than-expected investment in new products but weaker-than-expected demand

Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW)

Base case, P/E. We think this valuation methodology better captures Hiwin's earnings growth momentum, as its valuation tends to move with the business cycle. We apply a target multiple of 37x to our 2027 EPS estimate. We view this multiple as justified by the 44% operating profit CAGR we project for 2025-28.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger industrial automation demand pickup.
• n Market share gains.
• n Earlier-than-expected revenue contribution from humanoids.

Risks to Downside

• n Weaker industrial automation demand.
• n More pricing pressure.
• n Market share loss.
• n More broad-based impact on the global economy from geopolitical risks.

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Disclosure Section

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