報告_MS_工業自動化JMTBA_20260709

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_工業自動化JMTBA_20260709_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-13）

兩張真資料圖之目標價數值與 2026-06-25 報告（報告_MS_工業自動化亞德客1590上銀2049_20260625）已嵌入公司頁的同類走勢圖一致（AirTAC TP 2000、上銀 TP 400），僅時間軸延伸，未嵌入 lib 頁避免重複圖表堆疊。

原始內容

M July 9, 2026 05:59 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

Automation - Read-across from Preliminary JMTBA June 2026 Orders

In this report, we focus on preliminary JMTBA orders, which we believe could be a catalyst for AirTAC's and Hiwin's share prices.

According to the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association (JMTBA), headline orders grew 15% MoM and 53% YoY in June 2026 (vs. -6% MoM/+38% YoY in May 2026), to ¥204bn.

• Domestic orders were +28% MoM/+46% YoY (vs. -8% MoM/+37% YoY in May), at ¥58bn.
• Overseas orders were +10% MoM/+56% YoY (vs. -6% MoM/+38% YoY in May), at ¥145bn.

Our view:

• Overseas orders saw some seasonal rebound on a sequential basis and stay strong on a YoY basis, consistent with the solid manufacturing PMIs from three major regions - China, Europe and North America at 50.3, 51.4 and 53.3 in May vs. 50.0, 51.6 and 54.0 in May.
• We remain OW on both AirTAC (1590.TW) and Hiwin (2049.TW), as we see company-specific drivers on top of the industry recovery trend:
• ° AirTAC should continue to benefit from its own market share gain, and valuation appears undemanding at 20x 2027e P/E (vs. 25x average since 2020).
• ° Hiwin should see margin expansions in the coming quarters, driven by higher utilization and price hikes, which we believe could be share price catalysts. Though the current valuation of 31x 2027 P/E does not look cheap, we note that its peak cycle valuation could be up to 35-40x P/E.

Idea

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Derrick Yang

Equity Analyst

Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2862

Vivi Huang

Research Associate

Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2860

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Andy Meng, CFA

Equity Analyst

Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com

+852 2239-7689

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific

Industry View

In-Line

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Catalyst Event Reaction

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Valuation Methodology and Risks

AirTAC International (1590.TW)

Base case, 30x 2027e P/E. We believe this methodology better captures earnings growth momentum for industrial automation component plays (market sentiment moves along with business cycles). As the industry enters an upcycle, we think applying a peak cycle valuation of 30x P/E is reasonable given the stronger business outlook.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger macroeconomic climate in China
• n Stronger-than-expected demand from industrial automation

Risks to Downside

• n Sharper economic downturn in China
• n Miniature linear guideway business development taking more time
• n Larger-than-expected investment in new products but weaker-than-expected demand

Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW)

Base case, P/E. We think this valuation methodology better captures Hiwin's earnings growth momentum, as its valuation tends to move with the business cycle. We apply a target multiple of 37x to our 2027 EPS estimate. We view this multiple as justified by the 44% operating profit CAGR we project for 2025-28.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger industrial automation demand pickup.
• n Market share gains.
• n Earlier-than-expected revenue contribution from humanoids.

Risks to Downside

• n Weaker industrial automation demand.
• n More pricing pressure.
• n Market share loss.
• n More broad-based impact on the global economy from geopolitical risks.

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Disclosure Section

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