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原始內容
M August 9, 2026 08:15 PM GMT
Chenbro | Asia Pacific
Outlook Stays Solid, Despite Near-term Hiccup
| What's Changed | To | |
|---|---|---|
| Price Target | NT$1,780.00 | NT$1,600.00 |
Management remains positive on the outlook in 2H26 and 2027, as it is confident of picking up the shortfall from delayed shipment/revenue recognition in the coming months.
Short-term hiccup, but 2H outlook solid: July monthly sales of NT$2,462mn (-24% MoM/+42% YoY) were a negative surprise to the market, which management attributed to slower pull-in from its major customer owing to the memory shortage and the change in logistics arrangement. Management is not too worried about this and is confident that it can make up the near-term shortfall during the rest of the year. It thus remains optimistic on the outlook in 2H26, as the demand from its GPU/ ASIC server clusters and general servers is strong, driving orders for its chassis and rack offerings. Owing to the short-term hiccup, we now expect its 3Q26 revenue to grow by a single digit % QoQ vs. the prior double digit % QoQ.
Rack offerings emerging as another pillar for growth: On top of the share gains in the chassis market, Chenbro is turning more aggressively in the rack business. It has been the qualified supplier for two major GPU vendors. Moreover, it has penetrated into the CDU (Collant Distribution Unit) rack at multiple hyperscalers. Going forward, Chenbro might continue looking for opportunities in components in the AI space, where it can leverage its mechanical expertise and existing customer relationships. Revenue contribution from racks was 5-10% in 2025, might be over 10% in 2026 and even higher in 2027.
More diversified global footprint: Chenbro has a pretty aggressive capacity expansion plan in the pipeline, besides the existing ones in Taiwan and China. The Malaysian factory could start pilot production from 4Q26, mainly for chassis products . Meanwhile, the US capacity will start to ramp from 2H27 and the majority of the capacity will be for rack production. Lastly, its BoD has approved a capex plan of up to NT$600mn to set up a subsidiary in Vietnam, which might start mass production from 1Q27 (most for racks, especially CDU racks), as Chenbro will need to leverage the capacity to optimize the operation for its newly won projects in 2Q26. The total capex stays unchanged at NT$2.5-3.0bn for 2026.
Stay OW: We can understand the market's negative take on the weaker July monthly sales, but we think sentiment should improve if Chenbro can deliver a strong rebound in the coming months with the delayed shipment/recognition flowing in. We think the thesis of its own share gains in the chassis and rack businesses amid a growing AI cape cycle remains intact. Stay OW with a lower PT of NT$1,600 (27x 2027 P/E).
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Derrick Yang Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2862 |
|---|---|
| Vivi Huang Research Associate Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2860 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7689 |
Chenbro (8210.TW, 8210 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | In-Line |
| Price target | NT$1,600.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 43 |
| Shr price, close (Aug 7, 2026) | NT$1,115.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$1,590.00-505.00 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 122 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$136,517 |
| EV, curr (mn) | NT$133,964 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$2,409 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 29.06 | 47.77 | 58.77 | 68.77 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 28.97 | 48.96 | 65.82 | 82.99 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 22,001 | 32,467 | 42,173 | 49,177 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 5,101 | 8,347 | 10,106 | 11,733 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 3,558 | 5,849 | 7,196 | 8,420 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 34.6 | 23.3 | 19.0 | 16.2 |
| P/BV | 11.4 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 5.7 |
| RNOA (%) | 48.5 | 68.8 | 67.5 | 74.5 |
| ROE (%) | 49.0 | 52.8 | 47.3 | 43.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.2 | 15.8 | 12.7 | 10.5 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | 2.1 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 5.8 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (28.3) | (34.1) | (45.7) | (54.8) |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
- ** = Based on consensus methodology
- § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.