PDF 原檔：報告_GS_聯亞光電3081_20261005_original.pdf
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47KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1「Landmark monthly revenues and YoY」：2018/01 至 2026/09 月營收長條（左軸 NT$mn，0–600）與 YoY 折線（右軸 -100% 至 250%）；最右端 2026/09 長條約 540、YoY 約 190%（財務類圖，公司頁不嵌） |
報告_GS_聯亞光電3081_20261005_005.png |
67KB | 真資料圖 | 「LandMark (3081.TWO)」Goldman Sachs 評等與目標價沿革圖（2023/7-2026/6）：目標價標籤 686、589、505、434、449、654、651、678、762、867、1403、1603、1830、2081 等，隨股價走高；註明 Covered by Allen Chang, as of Feb 13, 2025（沿革圖，非公司架構圖，公司頁不嵌） |
原始內容
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LandMark (3081.TWO): CW laser in strong demand with capacity expansion; 3Q26 revenues +183% YoY; Buy
Sep revenues up 190% YoY to NT$540m, or 7% / 1% ahead of our / Bloomberg consensus, reaffirming our positive view on Landmark's growth on SiPh optical networking, along with the better supply of InP substrate, and the company's capacity expansion. As we highlighted in Global Optical Module TAM, we expect 1.6T and above to grow at 188% / 30% YoY in 2027 / 28E, with SiPh penetration rate at 73% / 74% in 800G and above in 2027 / 28E. Looking ahead, we expect revenues in 4Q26E to continue sequential increase, driven by new AI server racks ramp up, optical modules specification upgrade (toward 1.6T), and Landmark's ongoing capacity expansion to capture the market demand. In mid-Sep, Landmark announced the company has obtained a batch of new equipment valued at NT$535m, supporting company's shipment ramp up ahead. Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 1: Landmark monthly revenues and YoY
Source: Company data
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Ting Song +852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 2: We expect Landmark Oct 2026 revenues to grow 176% YoY/ 3% MoM to NT$557m Landmark quarterly/ monthly revenues
| Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026E | Nov 2026E | Dec 2026E | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$m) | 421 | 501 | 520 | 540 | 557 | 562 | 542 | 1,221 | 1,562 | 1,660 |
| YoY | 128% | 177% | 181% | 190% | 176% | 167% | 135% | 121% | 183% | 158% |
| MoM/QoQ | 4% | 19% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | -4% | 35% | 28% | 6% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 416 | 442 | 506 | 505 | 1,123 | 1,556 | ||||
| Actual vs. GS | 1% | 14% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 0% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in Landmark 3Q26 revenues and revise up earnings by 5%/ 1%/ 1%/ 1% in 2026-29E mainly on higher revenues of CW laser epi-wafer and diodes for 1.6T products, supported by rising demand from high-speed optical modules. We keep GM and Opex ratio largely unchanged.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revisions
| NT$m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Diff % | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Diff % | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Diff % | 2029E - Old | 2029E - New | 2029E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 5,152 | 5,348 | 4% | 9,470 | 9,586 | 1% | 14,796 | 15,099 | 2% | 22,205 | 22,498 | 1% |
| GP | 2,868 | 2,979 | 4% | 5,308 | 5,370 | 1% | 8,471 | 8,520 | 1% | 12,768 | 12,936 | 1% |
| OP | 2,191 | 2,301 | 5% | 4,444 | 4,506 | 1% | 7,296 | 7,345 | 1% | 11,036 | 11,182 | 1% |
| Pre-tax income | 2,253 | 2,364 | 5% | 4,499 | 4,562 | 1% | 7,385 | 7,435 | 1% | 11,125 | 11,272 | 1% |
| Net income | 1,803 | 1,891 | 5% | 3,599 | 3,649 | 1% | 5,908 | 5,948 | 1% | 8,900 | 9,017 | 1% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||
| GM | 55.7% | 55.7% | 0ppts | 56.1% | 56.0% | 0ppts | 57.3% | 56.4% | -0.8ppts | 57.5% | 57.5% | 0ppts |
| OPM | 42.5% | 43.0% | 0.5ppts | 46.9% | 47.0% | 0.1ppts | 49.3% | 48.6% | -0.7ppts | 49.7% | 49.7% | 0ppts |
| NM | 35.0% | 35.4% | 0.4ppts | 38.0% | 38.1% | 0.1ppts | 39.9% | 39.4% | -0.5ppts | 40.1% | 40.1% | 0ppts |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: Landmark P&L Summary
| NT$ mn | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 1,056 | 1,208 | 2,203 | 5,348 | 9,586 | 15,099 | 455 | 553 | 553 | 642 | 904 | 1,221 | 1,562 | 1,660 |
| Gross profit | 138 | 239 | 941 | 2,979 | 5,370 | 8,520 | 147 | 240 | 241 | 313 | 495 | 702 | 863 | 919 |
| OP income | (280) | (112) | 508 | 2,301 | 4,506 | 7,345 | 45 | 150 | 105 | 209 | 373 | 573 | 618 | 737 |
| Pretax income | (264) | (68) | 525 | 2,364 | 4,562 | 7,435 | 53 | 121 | 124 | 227 | 397 | 586 | 631 | 750 |
| Net income | (212) | (55) | 411 | 1,891 | 3,649 | 5,948 | 42 | 97 | 99 | 190 | 318 | 468 | 505 | 600 |
| EPS (NT$) | (2.10) | (0.54) | 4.21 | 18.58 | 35.87 | 58.46 | 0.42 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 1.87 | 3.12 | 4.60 | 4.96 | 5.90 |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 13.1% | 19.8% | 42.7% | 55.7% | 56.0% | 56.4% | 32.3% | 43.3% | 43.6% | 48.7% | 54.8% | 57.5% | 55.2% | 55.4% |
| Operating margin | -26.5% | -9.3% | 23.1% | 43.0% | 47.0% | 48.6% | 9.8% | 27.0% | 19.0% | 32.5% | 41.3% | 46.9% | 39.6% | 44.4% |
| Net margin | -20.0% | -4.5% | 18.7% | 35.4% | 38.1% | 39.4% | 9.3% | 17.5% | 17.9% | 29.6% | 35.1% | 38.4% | 32.3% | 36.1% |
| YoY | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | -56% | 14% | 82% | 143% | 79% | 58% | 40% | 103% | 71% | 122% | 99% | 121% | 183% | 158% |
| Gross profit | -82% | 73% | 294% | 217% | 80% | 59% | 638% | 503% | 171% | 247% | 237% | 193% | 258% | 194% |
| OP income | na | na | na | 353% | 96% | 63% | 18% | na | 1176% | na | 734% | 283% | 489% | 253% |
| Net income | na | na | na | 360% | 93% | 63% | 20% | na | 1139%2233% | 651% | 384% | 410% | 215% | |
| QoQ | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 57% | 22% | 0% | 16% | 41% | 35% | 28% | 6% | ||||||
| Gross profit | 63% | 63% | 1% | 30% | 58% | 42% | 23% | 7% | ||||||
| OP income | -849% | 234% | -30% | 99% | 79% | 53% | 8% | 19% | ||||||
| Net income | 418% | 129% | 2% | 92% | 67% | 48% | 8% | 19% | ||||||
| EBITDA | 55% | 81% | -21% | 69% | 52% | 43% | 7% | 17% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We employ a discounted P/E methodology (unchanged) and apply a 61.5x (unchanged, report link) target P/E multiple on our 2029E EPS, discounted back to 2027E at a COE of 10.5% (beta 1.7x, risk free rate 1.6%, and market risk premium at 5.1% - unchanged). Our target P/E multiple of 61.5x is derived from the PEG&M ratio of peers (unchanged) in the photonics supply chain. Consequently, our 12-month target price is now NT$4,459 (vs. previously at NT$4,401). Our new TP implied 2028E P/E of 76x is between company's avg. P/E at 62x and avg. +1 P/E at 91x. Maintain Buy.
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Exhibit 5: Landmark discounted P/E
| (NT$ mn) - Milestones - SiPh Rev contribution SiPh GP contribution | 2022 - 5G infrastructure cycle - 13% 15% | 2023 - 5G infrastructure cycle - 35% 25% | 2024 - 5G infrastructure cycle - 42% 41% | 2025 - SiPh in AI data center - 70% 71% | 2026E - SiPh in AI data center - 87% 89% | 2027E - SiPh in AI data center - 93% 94% | 2028E - CPO - 95% 96% | 2029E - CPO - 95% 96% | 2030E - CPO - 95% 96% | 2031E - CPO - 95% 96% | 2032E - CPO - 95% 96% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,381 | 1,056 | 1,208 | 2,203 | 5,348 | 9,586 | 15,099 | 22,498 | 33,297 | 46,616 | |
| YoY | 27% | -56% | 14% | 82% | 143% | 79% | 58% | 49% | 48% | 40% | 64,330 38% |
| Gross profit | 759 | 138 | 239 | 941 | 2,979 | 5,370 | 8,520 | 12,936 | 19,146 | 26,804 | 37,054 |
| 31.9% | 13.1% | 19.8% | 42.7% | 57.5% | 57.6% | ||||||
| Gross margin | 424 | 432 | 55.7% | 56.0% | 56.4% | 57.5% | 57.5% | 3,496 | 4,632 | ||
| OPEX | 418 | 351 | 678 | 864 | 1,175 | 1,755 | 2,564 | 36% | 32% | ||
| YoY Opex ratio | 19% 17.8% | -1% 39.6% | -16% 29.0% | 23% 19.6% | 57% 12.7% | 27% | 36% | 49% 7.8% | 46% 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Operating | 335 | -280 | -112 | 508 | 2,301 | 9.0% | 7.8% | 11,182 | 16,582 | 23,308 | 32,423 |
| profit YoY | -18% | -184% | -60% | -555% | 353% | 4,506 | 7,345 63% | 52% | 48% | 41% | 39% |
| Operating margin | 14% | -27% | -9% | 23% | 43% | 96% 47% | 49% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Pre-tax profit | 378 | -264 | 525 | 2,364 | 7,435 | 11,272 | 32,513 | ||||
| -68 | 4,562 | 16,672 | 23,398 | ||||||||
| Net profit | 330 | -212 | -55 | 411 | 1,891 | 3,649 | 5,948 | 9,017 | 13,338 | 18,719 | 26,010 |
| EPS (NT$, diluted) | 3.26 | -2.10 | -0.54 | 4.21 | 18.58 | 35.87 | 58.46 | 88.62 | 131.09 | 183.97 | 255.63 |
| YoY | -2% | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 360% | 93% | 63% | 52% | 48% | 40% | 39% |
| TP implied P/E | 240 | 124 | 76 | 50 | 34 | 24 | 17 |
| 2029E target P/E | 61.5 |
|---|---|
| Target multiple x EPS | 5,448 |
| Discounted back to 2027; TP (NTD) | 4,459.0 |
| Implied 2027 P/E | 124 |
| COE assumption | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.7 |
| Risk free | 1.6% |
| Market risk premium | 5.1% |
| COE | 10.5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 6: Landmark 12M forward P/E
Exhibit 7: Landmark QFII holding trend
Source: Eikon Datastream
Price Target Risks and Methodology - LandMark Optoelectronics Corp.
Valuation: We employ a discounted P/E methodology, applying a 61.5x target P/E multiple on our 2029E EPS, then discount it back to 2027E at a COE of 10.5% (beta 1.7x, risk free rate 1.6% and market risk premium at 5.1%), to derive our 12-month target price of NT$4,459. Our target P/E multiple is based on the same PEG&M ratio as peers in the photonics supply chain. We are Buy-rated on LandMark.
Key risk: Slower-than-expected SiPh penetration; stronger-than-expected competition; Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs) offering Epitaxial (EPI) wafers in-house.
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3081.TWO
12m Price Target: NT$4,459.00
Price: NT$3,000.00 Upside: 48.6%
| Buy | GS Forecast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | ||
| Market cap: NT$291.5bn / $9.1bn Enterprise value: NT$289.5bn / $9.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$8.3bn / $260.0mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | Revenue (NT$ mn) New | 2,202.8 | 5,348.2 | 9,586.0 | 15,099.5 |
| Market cap: NT$291.5bn / $9.1bn Enterprise value: NT$289.5bn / $9.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$8.3bn / $260.0mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 2,202.8 | 5,151.6 | 9,470.3 | 14,796.5 |
| Market cap: NT$291.5bn / $9.1bn Enterprise value: NT$289.5bn / $9.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$8.3bn / $260.0mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 842.9 | 2,668.4 | 4,902.2 | 7,761.6 |
| Market cap: NT$291.5bn / $9.1bn Enterprise value: NT$289.5bn / $9.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$8.3bn / $260.0mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | EPS (NT$) New | 4.21 | 18.58 | 35.87 | 58.46 |
| Market cap: NT$291.5bn / $9.1bn Enterprise value: NT$289.5bn / $9.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$8.3bn / $260.0mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | EPS (NT$) Old | 4.21 | 17.72 | 35.38 | 58.06 |
| Market cap: NT$291.5bn / $9.1bn Enterprise value: NT$289.5bn / $9.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$8.3bn / $260.0mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | P/E (X) | 85.8 | 161.4 | 83.6 | 51.3 |
| Market cap: NT$291.5bn / $9.1bn Enterprise value: NT$289.5bn / $9.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$8.3bn / $260.0mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | P/B (X) | 9.1 | 71.5 | 61.0 | 49.3 |
| Market cap: NT$291.5bn / $9.1bn Enterprise value: NT$289.5bn / $9.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$8.3bn / $260.0mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | Dividend yield (%) | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Market cap: NT$291.5bn / $9.1bn Enterprise value: NT$289.5bn / $9.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$8.3bn / $260.0mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | CROCI (%) | 10.8 | 33.5 | 63.2 | 107.8 |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | ||
| EPS (NT$) | 4.60 | 4.96 | 5.90 | 7.25 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 5 Oct 2026 close.
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