圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-30）
ingest 時建立的「眼見為憑」圖片索引，是 lib/ 嵌圖的唯一真相來源；建立步驟見
ingest_steps.mdStep 2.5。
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_GS_穩懋3105_20261029_001.png |
18KB | 真資料圖（因子評分） | GS Factor Profile：3105.TWO 相對 Asia ex Japan 與 Greater China 電子元件覆蓋的成長、財務報酬、估值倍數（Multiple）、綜合百分位長條，Multiple 約 90-98 百分位 |
報告_GS_穩懋3105_20261029_002.png |
32KB | 真資料圖（股價） | 3105.TWO 與加權指數 2025-10 至 2026-10 走勢；3m 絕對漲幅 67.2%、6m 8.1%、12m 440.0% |
報告_GS_穩懋3105_20261029_003.png |
52KB | 真資料圖（產業） | Exhibit 1：穩懋稼動率與毛利率（右軸）3Q23 至 4Q28E 走勢，稼動率 3Q26 前後升至約 75-78%，2028E 約 88-89% |
報告_GS_穩懋3105_20261029_004.png |
41KB | 真資料圖（產業） | Exhibit 2：2020-2028E 智慧機出貨 YoY 與 PA foundry 手機出貨 YoY 長條；2026E 智慧機 -10%、PA foundry +11%，2027E／2028E 為 +2%／+4% |
報告_GS_穩懋3105_20261029_005.png |
31KB | 真資料圖（產業） | Exhibit 3：2020-2028E 手機 PA 中 IDM 與代工占比堆疊圖，代工占比 21%、24%、35%、49%、56%、66%、74%、77%、83% |
報告_GS_穩懋3105_20261029_006.png |
60KB | 真資料圖（產業） | Exhibit 4：2001-2028E 穩懋＋宏捷科合計資本支出（NT$mn，長條）與 YoY（折線），2021 高點逾 10,000，2026E-2028E 約 3,000-4,000 |
報告_GS_穩懋3105_20261029_007.png |
119KB | 真資料圖（產業） | Exhibit 5：2017-2030E GaAs TAM 與代工 TAM（US$mn）及代工占比，9%→14%（2020）→11%（2022-23）→16%（2026E）→17%（2028E）→19%（2030E），含三段趨勢註記 |
報告_GS_穩懋3105_20261029_008.png |
69KB | 文字卡（評等歷史） | 高盛對穩懋評等與目標價歷史（2023-2026）及加權指數，Sell 自 2024-12-02 起，近期目標價標示 124、142 |
報告_GS_穩懋3105_20261029
PDF 原檔：報告_GS_穩懋3105_20261029_original.pdf
原始內容
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Win Semiconductors Corp. (3105.TWO)
Earnings Review: New optical products ramping up but contribution remains limited; reiterate Sell
3105.TWO 12m Price Target: NT$162.00 Price: NT$540.00 Downside: 70.0%
Win Semi's 3Q26 core business (operating income) was 49/41% higher than GSe/BBG consensus, mainly driven by a more favorable product mix with higher contribution from the high margin infrastructure business (accounted for 39% of total revenue in 3Q26 vs. 34% in 2Q26), resulting in a 9.2ppt QoQ increase in 3Q26 GPM, and came in 6.9/6.1ppt above GSe/BBG consensus. Win Semi's OPEX increased to NT$775mn (vs. NT$743mn in 2Q26). NI was 67/110% higher than GSe/BBG consensus due to the high non-operating income of NT$698mn (account for 33% of total pretax income).
For 4Q26, the company expects revenue to increase by low single digit QoQ, and expects cellular to see QoQ decline due to weak season while the remaining businesses (including infrastructure/Wi-Fi/optical) will see flattish to small QoQ increase. For GM, the company guides the 4Q26 level to maintain at high-thirties %, which is much better than both our prior expectation and BBG consensus at 31.8/31.4%. Management indicated 3Q26 UTR to be higher at 75% (was 65% in 2Q26), and expect to maintain at similar level in 4Q26.
The company continues to highlight the progress with its AI-related business, with its new PD (photodiodes) products started to ramp up from 2H26, with more contribution expected in 2027 along with more PD capacity coming online. For the new LD (laser diodes) products, the company continues to work with multiple clients on multiple new solutions (including CW laser, EML solutions and VCSEL), but expects to see more contribution in 2028 due to the lengthy reliability tests (takes 6M+ per our estimates). The company reiterated that CAPEX this year is project driven, which will mainly focus on expanding InP and GaN capacity for the datacom optical and infrastructure business.
SELL
Chao Wang
+886(2)2730-4195 | kuan-chao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Al Wang
+886(2)2730-4081 | al.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Key Data _____________________________________
Market cap: NT$217.7bn / $6.7bn
Enterprise value: NT$220.8bn / $6.8bn
3m ADTV: NT$11.9bn / $372.9mn
Taiwan
Greater China Electronic Components M&A Rank: 3
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NT$ mn) New | 16,638.5 | 21,761.6 | 25,119.3 | 27,419.8 |
| Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 16,638.5 | 21,320.0 | 24,016.0 | 25,863.5 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 4,708.4 | 6,888.3 | 7,020.2 | 7,886.5 |
| EPS (NT$) New | 4.00 | 11.05 | 6.73 | 8.37 |
| EPS (NT$) Old | 4.00 | 7.51 | 6.35 | 7.86 |
| P/E (X) | 25.9 | 48.9 | 80.2 | 64.5 |
| P/B (X) | 1.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| CROCI (%) | 8.2 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 10.7 |
| 9/26 | 12/26E | 3/27E | 6/27E | |
| EPS (NT$) | 4.55 | 2.94 | 1.41 | 1.36 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
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SELL
Win Semiconductors Corp. (3105.TWO) Rating since Dec 2, 2024
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 25.9 | 48.9 | 80.2 | 64.5 |
| P/B (X) | 1.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| FCF yield (%) | 7.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| EV/EBITDAR (X) | 10.6 | 33.7 | 33.1 | 29.2 |
| EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) | 10.6 | 33.7 | 33.1 | 29.2 |
| CROCI (%) | 8.2 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 10.7 |
| ROE (%) | 4.3 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 7.9 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | 13.3 | 12.1 | 19.0 | 20.6 |
| Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) | 13.3 | 12.1 | 19.0 | 20.6 |
| Interest cover (X) | 1.0 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.6 |
| Days inventory outst, sales | 109.4 | 88.9 | 88.7 | 91.2 |
| Receivable days | 32.9 | 32.4 | 33.6 | 34.5 |
| Days payable outstanding | 39.9 | 43.2 | 41.8 | 43.3 |
| DuPont ROE (%) | 4.0 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 9.1 |
| Turnover (X) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Leverage (X) | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Gross cash invested (ex cash) (NT$) | 61,343.0 | 63,080.6 | 67,644.6 | 70,795.7 |
| Average capital employed (NT$) | 48,929.8 | 46,932.9 | 46,908.0 | 47,197.6 |
| BVPS (NT$) | 98.00 | 101.87 | 104.22 | 107.15 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | (4.7) | 30.8 | 15.4 | 9.2 |
| EBITDA growth | (13.8) | 46.3 | 1.9 | 12.3 |
| EPS growth | 120.5 | 176.6 | (39.1) | 24.3 |
| DPS growth | NM | 259.1 | (39.1) | 24.3 |
| EBIT margin | 4.3 | 17.7 | 14.8 | 14.8 |
| EBITDA margin | 28.3 | 31.7 | 27.9 | 28.8 |
| Net income margin | 10.2 | 21.5 | 11.4 | 12.9 |
Price Performance __________________________________________
Source: FactSet. Price as of 28 Oct 2026 close.
Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 16,638.5 | 21,761.6 | 25,119.3 | 27,419.8 |
| Cost of goods sold | (12,612.4) | (14,670.0) | (17,142.0) | (18,584.3) |
| SG&A | (1,711.1) | (1,879.3) | (2,195.2) | (2,303.1) |
| R&D | (1,600.3) | (1,361.3) | (2,075.9) | |
| -- | -- | (2,467.8) -- | ||
| Other operating inc./(exp.) EBITDA | -- 4,708.4 | 6,888.3 | 7,020.2 | 7,886.5 |
| Depreciation & amortization | (3,993.7) | (3,037.3) | (3,314.1) | (3,821.9) |
| EBIT | 714.7 | 3,851.0 | 3,706.1 | 4,064.6 |
| Net interest inc./(exp.) | (546.0) | (417.3) | (400.2) | (473.6) |
| Income/(loss) from associates | 0.0 | 300.8 | (500.0) | -- |
| Pre-tax profit | 1,386.9 | 5,296.7 | 3,206.1 | 4,064.6 |
| Provision for taxes | (297.1) | (947.7) | (688.1) | (864.7) |
| Minority interest | 604.0 | 335.8 | 337.0 | 349.1 -- |
| Preferred dividends Net inc. (pre-exceptionals) | -- | -- | -- | 3,549.0 |
| Post-tax exceptionals | 1,693.8 -- | 4,684.8 -- | 2,854.9 -- | -- |
| Net inc. (post-exceptionals) | 1,693.8 | 4,684.8 | 2,854.9 | 3,549.0 |
| EPS (basic, pre-except) (NT$) | 4.00 | 11.05 | 6.73 | 8.37 |
| EPS (diluted, pre-except) (NT$) | 4.00 | 11.05 | 6.73 | 8.37 |
| EPS (basic, post-except) (NT$) | 4.00 | 11.05 | 6.73 | 8.37 |
| EPS (diluted, post-except) (NT$) | 4.00 | 11.05 | 6.73 | 8.37 |
| DPS (NT$) | 2.00 | 7.18 | 4.38 | 5.44 |
| Div. payout ratio (%) | ||||
| Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) | 50.1 | 65.0 | 65.0 | ______ 65.0 |
| Cash & cash equivalents | 12/25 7,066.9 | 12/26E 7,670.5 | 12/27E 5,082.9 | 12/28E 4,646.7 |
| Accounts receivable | 1,713.9 | 2,146.3 | 2,477.5 | 2,704.4 |
| Inventory | 4,978.5 | 5,626.9 | 6,575.0 | 7,128.2 797.6 |
| Other current assets | 797.6 14,556.9 | 797.6 | 797.6 | |
| Total current assets | 16,241.3 | 14,933.0 | 15,276.9 | |
| Net PP&E | 19,671.9 | 19,421.6 | 19,094.6 | 18,359.7 (195.6) |
| Net intangibles | 65.5 21,091.0 | (21.5) 21,391.8 | (108.6) 20,891.8 | 20,891.8 |
| Total investments Other long-term assets | 5,343.4 | 5,343.4 | 5,343.4 | |
| Total assets | 60,728.7 | 5,343.4 62,376.5 | 60,154.2 | 59,676.2 |
| Accounts payable | 1,661.9 | 1,808.6 | 2,113.4 | 2,291.2 |
| Short-term debt Short-term lease liabilities | 330.7 | 330.7 | 330.7 -- | 330.7 -- |
| Other current liabilities | -- 3,872.5 | -- 6,069.8 | 4,880.4 | 5,331.5 |
| Total current liabilities | 5,865.1 | 8,209.1 | 7,324.4 | 7,953.4 |
| Long-term debt | 12,328.2 | 12,328.2 | 12,328.2 | 12,328.2 |
| Long-term lease liabilities Other long-term liabilities | -- | -- | -- | -- 544.5 |
| liabilities | 544.5 | 544.5 | ||
| Total long-term Total liabilities | 544.5 12,872.7 | 12,872.7 21,081.8 | 12,872.7 20,197.2 | 12,872.7 20,826.2 |
| Preferred shares | 18,737.9 -- | -- 43,184.9 | -- 44,184.1 | -- 45,426.3 |
| Total common equity Minority interest | 41,545.3 445.6 | (1,890.2) | (4,227.2) | (6,576.3) |
| Total liabilities & | 62,376.5 | 60,154.2 | 59,676.2 | |
| equity Net debt, adjusted | 60,728.7 | |||
| 7,576.0 | 8,012.2 | |||
| Cash Flow (NT$ mn) | 5,592.0 12/25 | 4,988.4 12/26E | 12/27E | __________ 12/28E |
| Net income D&A add-back | 1,693.8 | 4,684.8 3,037.3 (335.8) | 2,854.9 | 3,549.0 |
| Minority interest add-back Net (inc)/dec working | 3,993.7 (604.0) | 3,314.1 (337.0) | 3,821.9 (349.1) | |
| capital Other operating cash flow | 207.1 (337.6) | (934.1) | (974.6) | (602.3) |
| Cash flow from operations | 500.0 | -- | ||
| 4,953.0 | (300.8) | |||
| 6,151.5 | 5,357.5 | 6,419.5 | ||
| Capital expenditures Acquisitions | (1,691.4) -- | (2,700.0) -- | (2,900.0) -- | (3,000.0) -- -- |
| Divestitures | 6,292.1 | -- | -- | |
| Others | 511.6 | -- | ||
| Cash flow from investing | 5,112.3 | -- (2,700.0) | -- | (3,000.0) |
| Repayment of lease liabilities | -- | (2,900.0) | -- | |
| Dividends paid (common & pref) | (423.9) | -- (847.9) | -- (3,045.1) | (1,855.7) |
| Inc/(dec) in debt Other financing cash | 791.3 (8,785.0) | -- (2,000.0) | -- | -- |
| flows Cash flow from | (2,847.9) | (2,000.0) | (2,000.0) (3,855.7) | |
| financing Total cash flow | (8,417.6) 1,647.6 | (5,045.1) | (436.2) | |
| 603.6 | (2,587.6) | |||
| Free cash flow | 3,451.5 | 3,419.5 | ||
| 3,261.6 | ||||
| 2,457.5 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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Upward revision to PA foundry TAM reflecting foundry continue to gain share despite weak smartphone shipment
We have revised up our 2026/27/28E PA foundry TAM by 5/4/2% to
US$1.3bn/1.5bn/1.6bn despite smartphone shipment remaining weak (GSe now at -10%/+2%/+2% in 2026/27/28, was -10%/+3%/+1% previously, see here) as the smartphone market remains exposed to the rising memory cost environment (see here). The upward revision is based on our expectation that PA foundry house will continue to gain share in the smartphone PA segment as newer smartphone projects from design houses are being allocated to foundries due to the higher production costs and increasing design complexity of the PA. This will benefit Win Semi in the mid to long term (Win Semi's revenue from cellular business already saw 28% YoY YTD). We now expect the market TAM to deliver an 8% CAGR over 2026-30E, and we expect foundries' cellular PA shipments to increase by 11% in 2026 (Exhibit 2), outperforming our 2026 smartphone shipment estimates of -10% YoY due to the higher than expected PA foundry penetration (Exhibit 5).
Win Semi delivered 3Q26 revenue that is better than the company's guidance (actual QoQ at 31% vs. guidance of low-teens QoQ), with the cellular business in peak season. Management expects this momentum to slow down in 4Q26 and guided revenue to see QoQ decline in the cellular business. We now expect Win Semi's PA foundry revenue to grow 31% YoY in 2026 (was 28% previously), outpacing the overall PA foundry TAM growth of 22% YoY, as the company continues to focus on mid-to-high-end and premium smartphone models (iOS camp accounts for 30-40% of the company's cellular business per our estimate), which are relatively more resilient to rising memory costs. Moreover, we expect Win Semi's PA foundry market share to decline from 74% in 2020 to 57% in 2026, and further lower to ~50% by 2030, but its revenue will continue to expand further due to the growing foundry TAM.
We continue to expect Taiwan PA foundry players to see modest recovery in 2026 CAPEX. However, we do not view this as an indication of a recovery in demand for the overall PA foundry industry. Win Semi maintained its 2026 CAPEX guidance of NT$2-3bn, with the majority of spending allocated to the new InP and GaN capacity rather than GaAs capacity expansion. We continue to believe GaAs capacity remains sufficient as we estimate Win Semi's quarterly utilization rate could reach at most 85% throughout 2026-28E (Exhibit 1), suggesting no meaningful need for additional GaAs capacity expansion.
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Exhibit 1: Win Semi's GM to be driven by utilization rate and product mix
Exhibit 2: We expect cellular PA foundry shipments to increase 11%/4%/4% in 2026/27/28E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: China cellular PA market share - Foundry continues to outgrow IDM
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: We believe Taiwan PA foundries' CAPEX will gradually improve starting from 2026
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Exhibit 5: We believe the foundry penetration rate will grow to 16%/17%/17% in 2026/27/28E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 6: Win Semi 3Q26 result vs. GSe/consensus
| Win Semi (3105.TWO) - P&L (NT$mn) | 3Q26 - Actual | 3Q26 - GS est. | 3Q26 - Diff (%) | QoQ - 2Q26 | QoQ | YoY - 3Q25 | YoY | Bloomberg consensus - Consensus | Bloomberg consensus - % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,859 | 5,781 | 1% | 5,257 | 11% | 4,488 | 31% | 5,871 | 0% |
| Gross profits | 2,191 | 1,766 | 24% | 1,485 | 48% | 1,205 | 82% | 1,835 | 19% |
| Operating profits | 1,416 | 950 | 49% | 742 | 91% | 386 | 267% | 1,008 | 41% |
| Pre-tax income | 2,114 | 950 | 122% | 1,188 | 78% | 897 | 136% | 1,082 | 95% |
| Net profit | 1,930 | 1,159 | 67% | 977 | %86 | 1,070 | 80% | 918 | 110% |
| EPS, NT$ | 4.55 | 2.73 | 66% | 2.30 | 97% | 2.53 | %08 | 2.27 | 101% |
| Gross margin (%) | 37.4% | 30.5% | 6.9ppt | 28.2% | 9.2ppt | 26.9% | 10.5ppt | 31.3% | 6.1ppt |
| EBIT margin (%) | 24.2% | 16.4% | 7.7ppt | 14.1% | 10.1ppt | 8.6% | 15.6ppt | 17.2% | 7.0ppt |
| Net margin (%) | 32.9% | 20.0% | 12.9ppt | 18.6% | 14.4ppt | 23.9% | 9.1ppt | 15.6% | 17.3ppt |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Investment view
The company has started to see increasing contribution from the new PD product in 3Q26 but the contribution remains very limited (overall optical business only saw high single digit QoQ in 3Q26), while the company expects PD product revenue to further ramp up in 2027 along with more PD capacity coming online. This is tracking more slowly than our expectation, and we now expect the datacom optical business to account for only a mid-single-digit of 2026E revenue (was expecting high-single-digit previously). Meanwhile, progress in new high end LD products (including CW lasers, EML solutions and VCSEL) remains broadly the same since last earning call, with the company is still at verification stage and expect more meaningful contribution in 2028E. As such, we believe Win Semi's revenue remains highly exposed to the potential weakness in smartphone demand, as we estimate smartphone related business (including cellular, WiFi, and optical) will account for 50%+ of total revenue in 2026E. The contribution e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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from datacom optical through 2026-27E could not reach scale, and it remains highly uncertain whether optical companies will outsource LD products to Win Semi in 2028E. As a result, we believe Win Semi's stock price remains too elevated (trading at over 50x 2027E P/E based on GSe/BBG consensus) with limited contribution from the datacom optical business.
We maintain our conservative view on Win Semi's stock performance, given (1) the contribution from datacom optical products (e.g., PDs and LDs) remains limited in near-term, with the higher margin LD products potentially seeing more contribution in 2028E, (2) the company's exposure in cellular business remains high (30%+), and the smartphone market continue to be impacted by high memory cost; and (3) given the slow technology upgrade speed in the GaAs foundry market, we believe competitors such as AWSC could catch up with the technology and is better positioned to gain share given their lower cost structures and more competitive pricing.
Maintain Sell, with a new 12-m TP of NT$162 (from NT$142).
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Exhibit 8: P&L table
| NT$mD | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 1Q28E | 2Q28E | 3Q28E | 4Q28E | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,590 | 5,257 | 5,859 | 6,055 | 5,920 | 6,175 | 6,658 | 6,366 | 6,276 | 6,728 | 7,340 | 7,075 | 16,639 | 21,762 | 25,119 | 27,420 | 28,974 |
| Gross profit | 1,209 | 1,485 | 2,191 | 2,207 | 1,881 | 1,959 | 2,158 | 1,979 | 1,959 | 2,169 | 2,425 | 2,283 | 4,026 | 7,092 | 7,977 | 8,835 | 9,527 |
| Operating expense | (778) | (743) | (775) | (945) | (995) | (1,050) | (1,132) | (1,095) | (1,092) | (1,164) | (1,263) | (1.252) | (3,311) | (3,241) | (4,271) | (4,771) | (5,128) |
| Operating income | 431 | 742 | 1,416 | 1,262 | 886 | 910 | 1,026 | 884 | 867 | 1,005 | 1,163 | 1,031 | 715 | 3,851 | 3,706 | 4,065 | 4,399 |
| Pretax income | 532 | 1,188 | 2,114 | 1,462 | 636 | 660 | 1,026 | 884 | 867 | 1,005 | 1,163 | 1,031 | 1,387 | 5,297 | 3,206 | 4,065 | 4,399 |
| Taxes expense | (83) | (284) | (288) | (292) | (127) | (158) | (226) | (177) | (173) | (241) | (244) | (206) | (296) | (948) | (688) | (865) | (935) |
| Net income | 533 | 977 | 1,930 | 1,244 | 598 | 577 | 894 | 786 | 787 | 844 | 1,012 | 907 | 1,695 | 4,685 | 2,855 | 3,549 | 3,826 |
| EPS, NT$ | 1.26 | 2.30 | 4.55 | 2.94 | 1.41 | 1.36 | 2.11 | 1.85 | 1.86 | 1.99 | 2.39 | 2.14 | 4.00 | 11.05 | 6.73 | 8.37 | 9.02 |
| As % of sales | |||||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 26.3% | 28.2% | 37.4% | 36.4% | 31.8% | 31.7% | 32.4% | 31.1% | 31.2% | 32.2% | 33.0% | 32.3% | 24.2% | 32.6% | 31.8% | 32.2% | 32.9% |
| Operating expense ratio | 16.9% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 15.6% | 16.8% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.2% | 17.4% | 17.3% | 17.2% | 17.7% | 19.9% | 14.9% | 17.0% | 17.4% | 17.7% |
| Operating margin | 9.4% | 14.1% | 24.2% | 20.8% | 15.0% | 14.7% | 15.4% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 4.3% | 17.7% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 15.2% |
| QoQ growth (%) | |||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | -4.3% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 3.4% | -2.2% | 4.3% | 7.8% | -4.4% | -1.4% | 7.2% | 9.1% | -3.6% | |||||
| Gross profit | -20.7% | 22.8% | 47.6% | 0.7% | -14.8% | 4.2% | 10.1% | -8.3% | -1.0% | 10.7% | 11.8% | -5.9% | |||||
| Operating income | -35.2% | 72.1% | 90.8% | -10.8% | -29.8% | 2.6% | 12.8% | -13.8% | -2.0% | 15.9% | 15.7% | -11.4% | |||||
| Net income | -48.2% | 83.2% | 97.5% | -35.5% | -51.9% | -3.4% | 54.8% | -12.1% | 0.1% | 7.2% | 20.0% | -10.4% | |||||
| YoY growth (%) | |||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 28.4% | 39.1% | 30.5% | 26.3% | 29.0% | 17.5% | 13.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.1% | %9- | 31% | 15% | %6 | 6% |
| Gross profit | 102.1% | 112.7% | 81.8% | 44.8% | 55.6% | 32.0% | -1.5% | -10.3% | 4.1% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 15.3% | 0% | 76% | 12% | 11% | 8% |
| Operating income | NA | NA | 267.1% | 89.9% | 105.7% | 22.6% | -27.5% | -29.9% | -2.2% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 16.5% | %9- | 439% | -4% | 10% | 8% |
| Net income | 3166.5% | NA | 80.3% | 21.0% | 12.1% | -40.9% | NA | -36.9% | 31.5% | 46.1% | 13.2% | 15.4% | 121% | 176% | 39% | 24% | 8% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investment Thesis and TP & risks
Win Semi is a key GaAs-based semi foundry player with c.49% global market share as of 2025. We believe the company's market share could decline given its much higher-than-peer product pricing in the demand downtrend. We also expect the
Earnings revisions
We raise our 2026E revenue by 2% after factor in 3Q26 results and raise our 2027/28E revenue by 5/6% to factor in higher infrastructure and optical business contribution. We revise up our 2026/27/28E GM estimates by 3.8/2.1/1.6ppt as we expect more margin expansion driven by higher UTR and the higher contribution from high margin infrastructure business. Overall, we revised up our 2026/27/28E EPS estimates by 47/6/7%.
Also, we introduce our 2029E earnings estimates with this report.
Exhibit 7: Earnings revisions table
| Win Semi P&L (NT$ mn) | 2026E New | 2026E Old | Diff. | 2027E New | 2027E Old | Diff. | 2028E New | 2028E Old | Diff. | 2029E New |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 21,762 | 21,320 | 2% | 25,119 | 24,016 | 5% | 27,420 | 25,864 | 6% | 28,974 |
| Gross Profit | 7,092 | 6,148 | 15% | 7,977 | 7,133 | 12% | 8,835 | 7,930 | 11% | 9,527 |
| EBIT | 3,851 | 2,924 | 32% | 3,706 | 3,141 | 18% | 4,065 | 3,430 | 19% | 4,399 |
| Net Income | 4,685 | 3,184 | 47% | 2,855 | 2,694 | 6% | 3,549 | 3,331 | 7% | 3,826 |
| EPS (NTS) | 11.05 | 7.51 | 47% | 6.73 | 6.35 | 6% | 8.37 | 7.86 | 7% | 9.02 |
| Ratio analysis | ||||||||||
| Gross margin | 32.6% | 28.8% | 3.8pp | 31.8% | 29.7% | 2.1pp | 32.2% | 30.7% | 1.6pp | 32.9% |
| EBIT margin | 17.7% | 13.7% | 4.0pp | 14.8% | 13.1% | 1.7pp | 14.8% | 13.3% | 1.6pp | 15.2% |
| Net margin | 21.5% | 14.9% | 6.6pp | 11.4% | 11.2% | 0.1pp | 12.9% | 12.9% | 0.1pp | 13.2% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation
We maintain our Sell rating, and revise up our TP from NT$142 to NT$162, based on the same target PE of 24x (1x STDV lower than the industry upcycle average valuation), factoring in our earnings revisions and, consistent with our group coverage practices, roll over our valuation period from 4Q26-3Q27 to 2027E.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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company to be impacted by the slow PA foundry market growth outlook given weak end-market demand and high inventory levels. This is despite some longer-term demand drivers (China PA in-sourcing trend, WiFi 6E/7 upgrading trend, new smartphone/AR VR optical products, automotive LiDAR opportunity, satellite communication market opportunity, stronger 5G BTS deployment in EU/US market, datacom optical opportunity etc.), which should increase its revenue/GM in the long term. However, we believe Win Semi's market share loss will continue to weigh on its long-term growth opportunity. We are Sell-rated given the ongoing PA foundry industry downcycle, along with our cautious view on the company's market share outlook. Win Semi is now trading above its average downcycle P/E multiple. Key upside risks are (1) easing competition in the China PA foundry market, (2) faster-than-expected progress on 5G/WiFi 7 upgrade trend, and (3) faster-than-expected growth from LEO/AI-related business.
Our 12-month target price of NT$162 is based on 24x 2027E EPS, which is 1x STDV lower than the industry upcycle average valuation since 2016. Key upside risks are (1) easing competition in the China PA foundry market, (2) faster-than-expected progress on 5G/WiFi 7 upgrade trend, and (3) faster-than-expected growth from LEO/AI-related business.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]