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報告_Daiwa_雙鴻3324_3Q26前瞻_20261028

更新 2026-10-29

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_雙鴻3324_3Q26前瞻_20261028_original.pdf

原始內容

AURAS Technology (3324 TT)

Target price: TWD2,180.00 (from TWD1,600.00)

Shareprice(28Oct):TWD1,435.00 | Up/downside:+51.9%

Stronger-than-expected 2027 outlook

  • 3Q26 gross margin likely impacted by weaker-than-expected revenue
  • However, we expect intact 4Q26/2027 revenue and earnings
  • Reiterating our Buy (1) rating; raising 12-month TP to TWD2,180

What's new: We preview Auras' 3Q26 results. We reaffirm our Buy (1) rating, as we believe Auras' liquid-cooling capability will continue to help it gain order share in GPU and ASIC AI servers in the coming years.

What's the impact: 3Q26 preview. Auras' 3Q26 revenue of TWD9,791m (+12.5% QoQ, +64.3% YoY), announced earlier, accounts for 94.5% and 95.5% of our previous forecast (TWD10,365m, +19.1% QoQ and +74.0% YoY) and the consensus forecast, respectively. We attribute the revenue miss to delayed shipments in September (to 4Q26) and the flood impact in Thailand. Thus, we now forecast Auras' 3Q26 gross margin to be 28.5%, down from 30.0% (vs. 28.4% in 2Q26, 29.8% in 3Q25 and consensus forecast of 30.0%), mainly as we expect a reduced sales scale and lowerthan-expected gross margin on Auras' VGA and PC segments.

We forecast 3Q26 operating profit of TWD1.63bn (+17.3% QoQ, +64.3% YoY), 14% lower than the consensus forecast of TWD1.89bn, and operating margin of 16.7% (vs. 16.0% in 2Q26 and 16.7% in 3Q25). Overall, we forecast 3Q26 net profit of TWD1.24bn (+27.7% QoQ, +27.1% YoY), 16% lower than the consensus of TWD1.47bn. 3Q26 product mix by revenue: server 81% (+122% YoY), PC 14% (-15% YoY), VGA 4% (-40% YoY) and others 1% (-18% YoY). Liquid cooling accounted for 62% of Auras' 3Q26 revenue (vs. 55% in 2Q26 and 1Q26).

Much stronger 4Q26 and 2027 outlook, with rising liquid-cooling revenue exposure. We now forecast Auras' 4Q26 revenue to grow by 17.1% QoQ, raising from +5.1% QoQ, driven by a US ASIC project kicking off with liquid cooling component adoption; we expect stronger monthly revenue momentum in the coming months. We also see a chance for Auras to obtain a new US ASIC project in 2H27, with its liquid cooling revenue % rising further YoY, which should bode well for its gross margin expansion. We raise our 2027-28E EPS by 30-33% on more aggressive revenue and gross- and operating-margins forecasts.

What we recommend: We reiterate our Buy (1) call and raise our 12M TP to TWD2,180 (from TWD1,600), still based on a target PER of 22x (0.4x PEG over 2026-28E), close to the mid-point of its past-3-year range of 1038x (average PER: 19x), on our 1-year forward EPS (2027E). Key downside risks: softer-than-expected end-market demand, penetration rate of new specs and liquid-cooling development.

How we differ: Our 2027-28E EPS are 25-29% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely as we are more aggressive on our revenue and gross and operating margin assumptions.

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Helen Chien

(886) 2 8758 6254

helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Neil Teng, CFA (886) 2 8758 6256 neil.teng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change - 23.7 24.6
Net profit change (2.8) 28.4 25.7
Core EPS (FD) change - 33.1 30.3

Source: Daiwa forecasts

12-month range 820.00-1,710.00
Market cap (USDbn) 4.11
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 148.07
Shares outstanding (m) 93
Major shareholder Management (20.1%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 38,511 58,722 71,240
Operating profit (m) 6,777 11,744 15,174
Net profit (m) 5,158 9,279 11,857
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 55.089 99.110 126.648
EPS change (%) 99.6 79.9 27.8
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (2.4) 24.8 28.5
PER (x) 26.0 14.5 11.3
Dividend yield (%) 1.5 2.8 3.6
DPS 22.2 39.9 51.0
PBR (x) 9.1 6.3 4.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.4 11.2 8.6
ROE (%) 40.0 51.8 47.9

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Auras: revenue and earnings forecasts revisions

(TWDm) 2026E - New 2026E - Previous 2026E - Change 2027E - New 2027E - Previous 2027E - Change 2028E - New 2028E - Previous 2028E - Change
Sales 38,511 38,511 0.0% 58,722 47,487 23.7% 71,240 57,197 24.6%
Gross profit 11,361 11,476 -1.0% 18,263 14,484 26.1% 22,441 18,017 24.6%
Gross margin 29.5% 29.8% -0.3pp 31.1% 30.5% 0.6pp 31.5% 31.5% 0pp
Operating profit 6,777 6,892 -1.7% 11,744 9,213 27.5% 15,174 12,183 24.6%
Operating margin 17.6% 17.9% -0.3pp 20.0% 19.4% 0.6pp 21.3% 21.3% 0pp
Net profit 5,158 5,308 -2.8% 9,279 7,228 28.4% 11,857 9,434 25.7%
Net margin 13.4% 13.8% -0.4pp 15.8% 15.2% 0.6pp 16.6% 16.5% 0.1pp
Fully-diluted EPS (TWD) 55.09 55.12 0.0% 99.11 74.45 33.1% 126.65 97.17 30.3%

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Auras: 3Q26 results preview

(TWDm) Daiwa's 3Q26 forecasts Our previous forecasts Differ Bloomberg consensus Differ
Revenue 9,791 10,365 -5.5% 10,183 -3.8%
Gross profit 2,790 3,110 -10.3% 3,051 -8.5%
Operating profit 1,630 1,950 -16.4% 1,892 -13.8%
Profit before tax 1,607 1,996 -19.5% 1,913 -16.0%
Net profit 1,237 1,557 -20.5% 1,470 -15.8%
EPS 13.30 16.72 -20.5% 15.68 -15.2%
Margin
Gross margin 28.5% 30.0% -1.5pp 30.0% -1.5pp
Operating margin 16.7% 18.8% -2.2pp 18.6% -1.9pp
Pre-tax margin 16.4% 19.3% -2.8pp 18.8% -2.4pp
Net margin 12.6% 15.0% -2.4pp 14.4% -1.8pp

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Auras: quarterly and annual P&L

(TWDm) 2026E - 1Q26 2026E - 2Q26 2026E - 3Q26E 2026E - 4Q26E 2027E - 1Q27E 2027E - 2Q27E 2027E - 3Q27E 2027E - 4Q27E 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue 8,552 8,700 9,791 11,468 12,000 13,500 15,000 18,222 38,511 58,722 71,240
Gross profit 2,537 2,472 2,790 3,561 3,696 4,185 4,680 5,702 11,361 18,263 22,441
Operating profit 1,520 1,390 1,630 2,236 2,396 2,735 3,080 3,533 6,777 11,744 15,174
Pre-tax profit 1,570 1,317 1,607 2,283 2,447 2,786 3,131 3,585 6,776 11,949 15,379
Net profit 1,164 969 1,237 1,787 1,882 2,157 2,436 2,804 5,158 9,279 11,857
Basic EPS (TWD) 12.61 10.41 13.30 19.20 20.22 23.17 26.17 30.12 55.51 99.69 127.39
Margin
Gross margin 29.7% 28.4% 28.5% 31.1% 30.8% 31.0% 31.2% 31.3% 29.5% 31.1% 31.5%
Operating margin 17.8% 16.0% 16.7% 19.5% 20.0% 20.3% 20.5% 19.4% 17.6% 20.0% 21.3%
Pre-tax margin 18.4% 15.1% 16.4% 19.9% 20.4% 20.6% 20.9% 19.7% 17.6% 20.3% 21.6%
Net margin 13.6% 11.1% 12.6% 15.6% 15.7% 16.0% 16.2% 15.4% 13.4% 15.8% 16.6%
YoY
Revenue 93.7% 64.0% 64.3% 50.9% 40.3% 55.2% 53.2% 58.9% 65.4% 52.5% 21.3%
Gross profit 109.9% 78.3% 57.4% 77.7% 45.7% 69.3% 67.7% 60.1% 78.3% 60.8% 22.9%
Operating profit 169.7% 119.4% 64.3% 109.1% 57.7% 96.7% 88.9% 58.0% 107.9% 73.3% 29.2%
Pre-tax profit 135.6% 524.9% 33.4% 90.9% 55.9% 111.5% 94.9% 57.1% 106.8% 76.3% 28.7%
Net profit 127.7% 512.8% 27.1% 92.4% 61.7% 122.6% 96.9% 56.9% 100.5% 79.9% 27.8%
QoQ 38,511 58,722 71,240
Revenue 12.6% 1.7% 12.5% 17.1% 4.6% 12.5% 11.1% 21.5%
Gross profit 26.6% -2.5% 12.9% 27.6% 3.8% 13.2% 11.8% 21.8%
Operating profit 42.1% -8.5% 17.3% 37.2% 7.1% 14.1% 12.6% 14.7%
Pre-tax profit 31.3% -16.1% 22.0% 42.1% 7.2% 13.9% 12.4% 14.5%
Net profit 25.3% -16.8% 27.7% 44.4% 5.3% 14.6% 13.0% 15.1%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Auras: product mix

報告_Daiwa_雙鴻3324_3Q26前瞻_20261028_002

Auras: 1-year forward PER

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Server revenue YoY growth (%) 17.7 37.7 (5.8) 109.7 117.9 110.0 70.0 25.0
PC revenue YoY growth (%) 20.5 (4.9) (4.6) 5.4 1.7 5.0 5.0 5.0
VGA revenue YoY growth (%) 26.6 (2.3) (17.6) (20.5) 18.1 5.0 5.0 5.0
Others revenue YoY growth (%) (15.2) (58.5) 5.2 35.7 (37.7) 10.0 10.0 10.0

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Server 2,257 3,107 2,927 6,139 13,375 28,088 47,749 59,687
PC 6,422 6,106 5,824 6,138 6,242 6,554 6,882 7,226
Other Revenue 5,579 4,643 3,962 3,502 3,659 3,868 4,091 4,328
Total Revenue 14,258 13,857 12,713 15,779 23,276 38,511 58,722 71,240
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (11,595) (11,135) (9,708) (11,753) (16,904) (27,150) (40,460) (48,800)
SG&A (771) (914) (951) (1,201) (1,702) (2,657) (3,876) (4,417)
Other op.expenses (513) (635) (678) (914) (1,411) (1,927) (2,643) (2,850)
Operating profit 1,379 1,173 1,376 1,911 3,259 6,777 11,744 15,174
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (22) (29) (5) 9 (34) (95) (95) (95)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 64 483 197 446 53 95 300 300
Pre-tax profit 1,421 1,628 1,568 2,366 3,277 6,776 11,949 15,379
Tax (268) (341) (329) (434) (580) (1,288) (2,270) (2,922)
Min. int./pref. div./others (21) (23) (7) (39) (126) (331) (400) (600)
Net profit (reported) 1,133 1,264 1,232 1,893 2,572 5,158 9,279 11,857
Net profit (adjusted) 1,133 1,264 1,232 1,893 2,572 5,158 9,279 11,857
EPS (reported)(TWD) 13.117 14.676 14.281 21.227 28.256 55.512 99.691 127.390
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 13.117 14.676 14.281 21.227 28.256 55.512 99.691 127.390
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 12.596 14.044 13.678 20.688 27.598 55.089 99.110 126.648
DPS (TWD) 6.000 6.500 6.350 10.000 12.000 22.205 39.949 51.048
EBIT 1,379 1,173 1,376 1,911 3,259 6,777 11,744 15,174
EBITDA 1,899 1,709 1,847 2,420 3,931 7,448 12,416 15,846

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 1,421 1,628 1,568 2,366 3,277 6,776 11,949 15,379
Depreciation and amortisation 520 536 470 509 672 672 672 672
Tax paid (149) (271) (368) (468) (417) (1,288) (2,270) (2,922)
Change in working capital (233) (769) 296 (667) (3,812) (4,040) (7,934) (3,690)
Other operational CF items (115) 116 6 (97) (315) 95 95 95
Cash flow from operations 1,444 1,240 1,971 1,643 (594) 2,216 2,512 9,535
Capex (1,030) (615) (835) (1,436) (2,234) (1,800) (1,800) (1,800)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 96 11 (85) (41) (370) (376) (376) (376)
Other investing CF items (105) (28) (134) (90) (90) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (1,038) (633) (1,053) (1,567) (2,695) (2,176) (2,176) (2,176)
Change in debt 677 (61) (386) 1,608 2,762 200 1,300 200
Net share issues/(repurchases) (447) 0 0 167 155 0 0 0
Dividends paid (482) (517) (577) (571) (903) (1,108) (2,063) (3,712)
Other financing CF items (51) (52) (43) 160 (64) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (303) (629) (1,007) 1,364 1,950 (908) (763) (3,512)
Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in cash 102 (22) (89) 1,441 (1,338) (868) (427) 3,847
Free cash flow 414 625 1,136 208 (2,828) 416 712 7,735

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 1,494 1,484 1,366 2,809 1,439 571 144 3,991
Inventory 2,301 2,081 2,391 2,934 6,179 8,231 13,413 15,425
Accounts receivable 4,849 4,570 4,613 5,462 10,128 14,954 24,102 28,451
Other current assets 334 286 284 475 842 842 842 842
Total current assets 8,978 8,420 8,653 11,680 18,587 24,597 38,500 48,709
Fixed assets 2,442 2,715 3,126 4,083 6,150 6,750 7,350 7,950
Goodwill & intangibles 125 173 187 212 197 197 197 197
Other non-current assets 350 435 646 951 1,190 1,190 1,190 1,190
Total assets 11,895 11,743 12,612 16,926 26,125 32,734 47,237 58,046
Short-term debt 416 1,498 232 475 2,678 2,678 2,678 2,678
Accounts payable 4,938 3,668 4,136 5,019 9,311 12,175 18,598 21,296
Other current liabilities 315 454 419 407 534 122 122 122
Total current liabilities 5,670 5,620 4,787 5,902 12,523 14,975 21,397 24,096
Long-term debt 350 255 172 313 630 830 2,130 2,330
Other non-current liabilities 967 58 786 1,423 1,477 1,477 1,477 1,477
Total liabilities 6,986 5,933 5,745 7,638 14,630 17,282 25,004 27,903
Share capital 884 884 895 918 931 929 929 929
Reserves/R.E./others 3,859 4,682 5,741 8,043 10,154 13,782 20,163 27,473
Shareholders' equity 4,743 5,566 6,635 8,961 11,085 14,711 21,092 28,402
Minority interests 166 244 231 327 410 741 1,141 1,741
Total equity & liabilities 11,895 11,743 12,612 16,926 26,125 32,734 47,237 58,046
EV 133,001 134,075 132,832 131,870 135,841 137,241 139,368 136,321
Net debt/(cash) (728) 269 (961) (2,020) 1,869 2,937 4,664 1,017
BVPS (TWD) 53.654 62.968 74.140 97.655 119.093 158.341 227.017 305.698

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 16.7 (2.8) (8.3) 24.1 47.5 65.4 52.5 21.3
EBITDA (YoY) (3.9) (10.0) 8.0 31.1 62.4 89.5 66.7 27.6
Operating profit (YoY) (11.7) (14.9) 17.3 38.8 70.6 107.9 73.3 29.2
Net profit (YoY) 1.9 11.6 (2.5) 53.6 35.9 100.5 79.9 27.8
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) (0.2) 11.5 (2.6) 51.3 33.4 99.6 79.9 27.8
Gross-profit margin 18.7 19.6 23.6 25.5 27.4 29.5 31.1 31.5
EBITDA margin 13.3 12.3 14.5 15.3 16.9 19.3 21.1 22.2
Operating-profit margin 9.7 8.5 10.8 12.1 14.0 17.6 20.0 21.3
Net profit margin 7.9 9.1 9.7 12.0 11.1 13.4 15.8 16.6
ROAE 24.3 24.5 20.2 24.3 25.7 40.0 51.8 47.9
ROAA 10.3 10.7 10.1 12.8 11.9 17.5 23.2 22.5
ROCE 26.5 17.7 18.6 22.0 26.2 40.1 51.1 48.8
ROIC 29.9 18.1 18.2 23.7 26.0 34.6 42.0 42.3
Net debt to equity n.a. 4.8 n.a. n.a. 16.9 20.0 22.1 3.6
Effective tax rate 18.8 21.0 21.0 18.4 17.7 19.0 19.0 19.0
Accounts receivable (days) 122.0 124.1 131.8 116.5 122.2 118.9 121.4 134.6
Current ratio (x) 1.6 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0
Net interest cover (x) 63.6 40.9 255.1 n.a. 95.8 71.2 123.4 159.5
Net dividend payout 45.7 44.3 44.5 47.1 42.5 40.0 40.1 40.1
Free cash flow yield 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.2 n.a. 0.3 0.5 5.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1998 and listed on Taiwan's OTC stock board in May 2005, AURAS Technology (Auras) is a leading global thermal solutions provider that offers a one-stop shopping model. Its major clients include Quanta, Compal, HP, Lenovo, Dell, Amazon and Meta. Major applications for the company's products are notebooks (consumer, commercial and gaming), desktops, VGA, servers and others.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analystcomments
G Executive/board quality 2 The CEO and Chairperson of Auras are the same individual, and we see the Chairperson has served as Auras' vice president for 14 years, which is a positive sign from an executive perspective. We see no issue with its board quality.
G Capital management 2 Auras' dividend payout ratio was 42-47% over 2019-25, which we consider reasonable as the company is at a fast-growing stage.
G Related party & transaction 2 Cost of goods generated from related-party transactions was less than 1% of total COGS during 2022-25, and we found no suspicious activity.
E Supplychain management 1 Auras has a complete process to select and review its supply chain to make sure its supply- chain management meets ESG requirements. For example, those who submit ICP testing report and have ISO9001, QC080000 and ESG-related certifications would be the preferred choice as suppliers.
E Datasecurity 2 To protect business information, Auras introduced the ISO 27001 management system in 2022, improving its information security system. Thus, when the company's business activities are affected by major disasters or equipment failure, Auras can effectively reduce the damage to an acceptable level, and ensure that the information operation process can be rebuilt.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 28 Oct 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-10-29)

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_雙鴻3324_3Q26前瞻_20261028_001.png 29KB 真資料圖 「Share price performance」:雙鴻股價(藍,左軸 TWD)與相對加權指數(黃,右軸 %)Oct-25 至 Oct-26,股價自約 1,100 回落至 800 附近後 2026 年 7-9 月急升至約 1,700,再回落約 1,300-1,400(財務股價類)
報告_Daiwa_雙鴻3324_3Q26前瞻_20261028_002.png 39KB 真資料圖 「Auras: product mix」營收組合堆疊(PC/VGA/Server/Others):Server 2025 57%、2026E 73%、2027E 81%、2028E 84%;PC 2025 27%、2026E 17%、2027E 12%、2028E 10%;VGA 2026E 9%、2027E 6%、2028E 5%(產品組合類,數字照圖標)
報告_Daiwa_雙鴻3324_3Q26前瞻_20261028_003.png 30KB 真資料圖 「Auras: 1-year forward PER」:股價對 8x/12x/16x/20x/24x 倍數帶,Oct-19 至 Oct-26,2026 年股價落在約 16x-20x 帶之間(財務估值類)