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報告_Daiwa_聯亞3081_3Q26_20261028

更新 2026-10-29

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_聯亞3081_3Q26_20261028_original.pdf

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-10-29)

ingest 時建立的「眼見為憑」圖片索引,是 lib/ 嵌圖的唯一真相來源;建立步驟見 ingest_steps.md Step 2.5。

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_聯亞3081_3Q26_20261028_001.png 21KB 真資料圖(股價) LandMark(左軸,TWD)股價與相對加權指數(右軸,%)2025-10 至 2026-10 走勢,股價 2026 年急升,高點約 3,300-3,500(左軸 0-3,550)
報告_Daiwa_聯亞3081_3Q26_20261028_002.png 32KB 真資料圖(估值) PBR 走勢 2015-07 至 2026 年底與平均、±1 標準差、±2 標準差線;歷史高點 2016 年 10.8x、2017 年 10.4x,2026 年飆升至最高 55x,並標註 11.7x 為前一波高點
報告_Daiwa_聯亞3081_3Q26_20261028_003.png 40KB 真資料圖(估值) 股價與四季前瞻 PER 區間(20x、35x、50x、65x、80x、100x)2015-07 至 2027 年,股價 2026 年急升至約 3,300 以上,貼近最上緣 100x 區間

(本份三張皆為股價/估值走勢圖,未嵌入 lib。)

原始內容

LandMark Optoelectronics (3081 TT)

Target price: TWD1,210.00 (from TWD900.00)

Shareprice(28Oct):TWD2,580.00 | Up/downside:-53.1%

Mindful of reset to street's margin hype

  • Another set of upbeat quarterly results and guidance
  • Raising forecasts on clear order visibility secured by LTAs
  • Reaffirming Sell (5) on valuation with higher TP of TWD1,210

What's new: LandMark Opto (LMO) disclosed another set of upbeat results and guidance on 28 October, thanks to continued strong demand for broadband optical transceivers on cloud service providers' (CSP) active AI datacentre build that spurred demand for LMO's silicon photonics (SiPh) epiwafer and chip solutions. While we raise our forecasts and TP on its clear order visibility secured by long-term agreements (LTAs) signed with customers and suppliers, we retain our Sell (5) call on valuation grounds; be mindful of downside risk to any margin hype from the street.

What's the impact: Another set of upbeat results and guidance. LMO reported 3Q26 net profit of TWD621m, 11%/5% above our/consensus estimates thanks to lower R&D, while gross margin (GM) differed not much despite a higher top line. Guidance calls for 4Q26 revenue to reach TWD1.8bn, 15% above our previous forecast, thanks to stronger demand for CW lasers (ie, SiPh) and likely continued passthrough of materials cost hikes such as InP substrates. Management gave no margin guidance yet expects not much continued GM expansion in the next few quarters, considering supply-chain value proposition. We suspect this has to do with bargaining power of its customers who are hyperscale CSPs worldwide.

Clear-sky business visibility yet… Management at the call elaborated its 4-year LTAs signed with both CSP customers and substrate vendors, which secured business visibility for LMO to commit to a capex hike aimed at increasing capacity by 150% YoY each year over 2027-28. While we merit such efforts and raise our 2026-28E EPS forecasts by 10-25%, we flag the LTAs wouldn't offer downside protection should the global AI investments slow down - a risk we've flagged for likely a soft-landing in 2028. More importantly, we remain concerned on valuations.

… hefty valuations still under test. Valuations look still stretched as the stock continues trading at 32x 2027E PBR and 80x 2027E PER (charts on p.2), which in our opinion have discounted too much ahead of LMO's fundamentals despite strong growth.

What we recommend: Given our forecast revisions, we raise our 12M TP for LMO to TWD1,210 (previous: TWD900), based on a revised ROEadjusted PBR target of 15x (previous: 13x) 2027E BVPS on a higher ROE trajectory. We reaffirm our Sell (5) call on stretched valuations with key upside risks of any better-than-expected SiPh ramp and margin execution.

How we differ: Our 2027-28E EPS are 29-48% below the consensus forecasts as we believe the street is too aggressive on the SiPh strength.

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4

3

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Rick Hsu (886) 2 8758 6261 rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Sam Weng (886) 2 8758 6255 sam.weng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 6.2 17.6 17.4
Net profit change 10.0 24.9 20.3
Core EPS (FD) change 9.9 24.8 20.2

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 353.64-3,530.00
Market cap (USDbn) 8.08
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 298.08
Shares outstanding (m) 102
Major shareholder HwaSheng Int'l Investment (8.4%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 5,505 8,169 8,829
Operating profit (m) 2,623 4,046 4,108
Net profit (m) 2,131 3,295 3,372
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 20.915 32.345 33.103
EPS change (%) 396.9 54.6 2.3
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 3.0 (29.1) (47.9)
PER (x) 123.4 79.8 77.9
Dividend yield (%) 0.1 0.4 0.7
DPS 3.0 11.1 19.1
PBR (x) n.a. n.a. 27.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 88.9 58.0 53.8
ROE (%) 41.7 46.3 37.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts Note: 2026E PBR = 43.5x / 2027E PBR = 32.0x

LMO: quarterly P&L estimates and forecasts

TWDm 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue 904 1,221 1,562 1,817 1,834 2,017 2,148 2,170 2,203 5,505 8,169 8,829
COGS -409 -520 -647 -730 -737 -806 -869 -886 -1,262 -2,306 -3,299 -3,812
Gross profit 495 702 915 1,087 1,097 1,211 1,279 1,284 941 3,199 4,871 5,017
Opex -122 -129 -143 -182 -185 -204 -217 -219 -432 -576 -825 -909
Operating profit 373 573 771 906 912 1,007 1,062 1,065 508 2,623 4,046 4,108
EBITDA 444 648 849 996 1,003 1,098 1,175 1,198 818 2,937 4,474 4,799
Pretax profit 397 586 777 904 922 1,023 1,083 1,091 525 2,663 4,119 4,215
Income taxes 79 117 155 181 184 205 217 218 -97 -533 -824 -843
Net profit 318 468 621 723 737 819 867 872 428 2,131 3,295 3,372
EPS (TWD, basic) 3.12 4.60 6.11 7.11 7.24 8.04 8.51 8.56 4.24 20.94 32.34 33.10
EPS (TWD, fully diluted) 3.12 4.60 6.11 7.10 7.24 8.04 8.51 8.56 4.21 20.92 32.34 33.10
Margin
Gross 55% 57% 59% 60% 60% 60% 60% 59% 43% 58% 60% 57%
Operating 41% 47% 49% 50% 50% 50% 49% 49% 23% 48% 50% 47%
EBITDA 49% 53% 54% 55% 55% 54% 55% 55% 37% 53% 55% 54%
Net 35% 38% 40% 40% 40% 41% 40% 40% 19% 39% 40% 38%
Growth (QoQ)
Revenue 41% 35% 28% 16% 1% 10% 7% 1%
Gross profit 58% 42% 30% 19% 1% 10% 6% 0%
Operating profit 77% 53% 35% 17% 1% 10% 5% 0%
Net profit 67% 48% 33% 16% 2% 11% 6% 1%
EPS (basic) 66% 48% 33% 16% 2% 11% 6% 1%
EPS (FD) 67% 48% 33% 16% 2% 11% 6% 1%
Growth (YoY)
Revenue 99% 121% 183% 183% 103% 65% 38% 19% 82% 150% 48% 8%
Gross profit 237% 193% 279% 248% 122% 73% 40% 18% 294% 240% 52% 3%
Operating profit 734% 284% 644% 330% 144% 76% 38% 18% nm 416% 54% 2%
Net profit 651% 384% 528% 280% 132% 75% 39% 21% nm 397% 55% 2%
EPS (basic) 645% 380% 524% 278% 132% 75% 39% 21% nm 394% 54% 2%
EPS (FD) 651% 384% 528% 280% 132% 75% 39% 21% nm 397% 55% 2%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

LMO: 3Q26 results and 4Q26 guidance check

TWDm 3Q26 - Actual 3Q26 - Daiwa 3Q26 - Variance 3Q26 - QoQ Growth - YoY Growth - Guidance 4Q26E - Daiwa (previous)
Revenue 1,562 1,500 4% 28% 183% Revenue QoQ growth to be similar to 4Q25 up 4% QoQ
Gross profit 915 885 3% 30% 279% na GM = 60%
Operating profit 771 698 11% 35% 644%
Pretax profit 777 700 11% 33% 528%
Net profit 621 560 11% 33% 528%
Adjusted EPS (TWD) 6.11 5.50 11% 33% 528%
Margin
Gross 58.6% 59.0% -0.5%
Operating 49.4% 46.5% 2.9%
Net 39.8% 37.3% 2.5%
Revenue mix*
Telecom 5-10% 9%
Datacom 80-85% 88%
Others c.5% 3%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Note: * Telecom includes PON and cellular interconnectivity, Datacom includes SiPh and datacentre connectivity, Others include consumer, automotive LiDAR, industrial and other applications

LMO: PBR trend

LMO: 4-quarter forward PER band

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Wafer shipment ('000) 49 65 27 31 53 101 133 154
Capacity utilization (%) 53 64 26 30 51 92 98 99
Blended ASP (USD) 1,366 1,234 1,242 1,205 1,345 1,710 1,916 1,794

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
PON 564 521 285 374 273 343 408 441
SiPhotonics 289 317 380 522 1,505 4,679 7,107 7,637
Other Revenue 1,019 1,542 392 313 425 483 654 751
Total Revenue 1,873 2,381 1,056 1,208 2,203 5,505 8,169 8,829
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (1,104) (1,622) (918) (970) (1,262) (2,306) (3,299) (3,812)
SG&A (153) (155) (125) (130) (160) (323) (457) (503)
Other op.expenses (203) (270) (292) (220) (272) (254) (368) (406)
Operating profit 412 334 (279) (112) 508 2,623 4,046 4,108
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 3 6 16 21 26 20 73 107
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 3 39 (1) 23 (9) 20 0 0
Pre-tax profit 418 378 (264) (68) 525 2,663 4,119 4,215
Tax (80) (49) 53 14 (97) (533) (824) (843)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 338 330 (212) (55) 428 2,131 3,295 3,372
Net profit (adjusted) 338 330 (212) (55) 428 2,131 3,295 3,372
EPS (reported)(TWD) 3.358 3.284 (2.103) (0.541) 4.236 20.936 32.345 33.103
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 3.358 3.284 (2.103) (0.541) 4.236 20.936 32.345 33.103
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 3.358 3.261 (2.093) (0.536) 4.209 20.915 32.345 33.103
DPS (TWD) 5.000 3.500 3.500 0.500 0.500 3.000 11.085 19.083
EBIT 412 334 (279) (112) 508 2,623 4,046 4,108
EBITDA 904 811 178 280 818 2,937 4,474 4,799

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 418 378 (264) (68) 525 2,663 4,119 4,215
Depreciation and amortisation 492 477 457 391 309 314 428 691
Tax paid (80) (49) 53 14 (97) (533) (824) (843)
Change in working capital 207 (193) 90 30 (355) (680) (95) (75)
Other operational CF items (15) 25 (96) 10 331 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations 1,022 639 240 377 714 1,764 3,628 3,988
Capex (206) (363) (151) (70) (87) (1,896) (960) (760)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (127) (97) (819) (312) (400) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (333) (460) (970) (382) (487) (1,896) (960) (760)
Change in debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (100)
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (457) (320) (322) (46) (46) (305) (1,129) (1,944)
Other financing CF items (8) 14 (8) (2) (7) 500 0 (100)
Cash flow from financing (465) (306) (330) (48) (53) 195 (1,129) (2,144)
Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in cash 225 (127) (1,060) (53) 174 63 1,539 1,084
Free cash flow 816 276 89 306 627 (132) 2,668 3,228

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 1,771 1,644 1,299 1,548 1,973 2,036 3,575 4,659
Inventory 289 376 357 346 571 661 711 711
Accounts receivable 297 458 230 199 337 987 1,037 1,137
Other current assets 24 33 22 31 30 30 30 30
Total current assets 2,381 2,511 1,909 2,125 2,911 3,714 5,353 6,537
Fixed assets 2,123 2,164 1,969 1,665 1,522 3,086 3,711 3,809
Goodwill & intangibles 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 3
Other non-current assets 471 437 503 497 571 581 601 601
Total assets 4,981 5,117 4,384 4,290 5,008 7,385 9,668 10,950
Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 89 176 56 41 45 105 110 135
Other current liabilities 302 273 163 183 487 440 555 580
Total current liabilities 391 450 219 225 532 545 665 715
Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 500 500 300
Other non-current liabilities 318 311 303 294 286 300 300 300
Total liabilities 709 761 522 519 817 1,345 1,465 1,315
Share capital 914 919 919 925 925 925 925 925
Reserves/R.E./others 3,359 3,438 2,943 2,846 3,266 5,114 7,278 8,710
Shareholders' equity 4,272 4,357 3,862 3,772 4,191 6,039 8,203 9,635
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 4,981 5,117 4,384 4,290 5,008 7,385 9,668 10,950
EV 260,795 260,923 261,267 261,019 260,594 261,031 259,492 258,208
Net debt/(cash) (1,771) (1,644) (1,299) (1,548) (1,973) (1,536) (3,075) (4,359)
BVPS (TWD) 42.508 43.415 38.384 37.397 41.441 59.344 80.524 94.584

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) (18.9) 27.1 (55.6) 14.4 82.3 149.9 48.4 8.1
EBITDA (YoY) (22.7) (10.3) (78.0) 56.8 192.4 259.2 52.4 7.3
Operating profit (YoY) (41.8) (19.0) n.a. n.a. n.a. 416.2 54.2 1.5
Net profit (YoY) (42.9) (2.4) n.a. n.a. n.a. 397.3 54.6 2.3
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) (42.9) (2.9) n.a. n.a. n.a. 396.9 54.6 2.3
Gross-profit margin 41.0 31.9 13.1 19.8 42.7 58.1 59.6 56.8
EBITDA margin 48.3 34.1 16.9 23.1 37.1 53.3 54.8 54.4
Operating-profit margin 22.0 14.0 n.a. n.a. 23.1 47.6 49.5 46.5
Net profit margin 18.0 13.8 n.a. n.a. 19.4 38.7 40.3 38.2
ROAE 7.8 7.6 n.a. n.a. 10.8 41.7 46.3 37.8
ROAA 6.6 6.5 n.a. n.a. 9.2 34.4 38.6 32.7
ROCE 9.6 7.7 n.a. n.a. 12.8 48.9 53.1 44.1
ROIC 12.5 11.2 n.a. n.a. 18.7 62.4 67.2 63.2
Net debt to equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Effective tax rate 19.2 12.9 0.0 0.0 18.4 20.0 20.0 20.0
Accounts receivable (days) 90.4 57.9 118.9 64.8 44.4 43.9 45.2 44.9
Current ratio (x) 6.1 5.6 8.7 9.5 5.5 6.8 8.0 9.1
Net interest cover (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net dividend payout 85.1 104.2 107.3 (23.9) (93.3) 71.3 53.0 59.0
Free cash flow yield 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 n.a. 1.0 1.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in June 1997, LandMark Optoelectronics Corporation (LMO) is a dedicated compound semiconductor epiwafer supplier for optical communication (OC), with end-applications focusing primarily on telecom and datacom, including passive optical network (PON), datacentre and cellular infrastructure, as well as industrial and consumer electronics. LMO is one of the largest pure OC epiwafer suppliers globally by revenue.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analystcomments
G Executive/board quality 2 LMO's Board of Directors consists of seven members whose expertise covers industry, academia, finance, accounting, and management. Among these directors, three are independent, representing 43 percent of the board. This proportion exceeds the regulatory requirement, which mandates a minimum of 20 percent independent directors. Although the chairman and the president are different individuals, several members of the executive management team, including the CSO, CTO, and CFO, also serve as directors. This concentration of managerial and oversight roles may increase the likelihood of agency problems because the same individuals influence both strategic decision making and governance. The board currently includes only one female director out of seven members, which represents 14 percent of the total. The company recognizes this gender imbalance and is actLMO's Board of Directors consists of seven members whose expertise covers industry, academia, finance, accounting, and management. Among these directors, three are independent, representing 43 percent of the board. This proportion exceeds the regulatory requirement, which mandates a minimum of 20 percent independent directors. Although the chairman and the president are different individuals, several members of the executive management team, including the CSO, CTO, and CFO, also serve as directors. This concentration of managerial and oversight roles may increase the likelihood of agency problems because the same individuals influence both strategic decision making and governance. The board currently includes only one female director out of seven members, which represents 14 percent of the total. The company recognizes this gender imbalance and is actively working toward a more inclusive and balanced board composition.
Capital management 2 In the past 10 years, LMO's dividend payout ratio has been above 65%. Despite the payout ratio decreasing to 65-70% during 2018-19 due to a decrease in earnings from a high level of above 80% over 2015-17, the payout ratio returned to above 75% during 2020-23.
Related party & transaction 1 The company does not engage in any meaningful related-party transactions.
S Supplychain management 2 LMO has established a 'Supplier Management Procedure' to shortlist qualified business partners and evaluates suppliers annually based on its suppliers' environmental protection procedures as well as health management system. Also, LMO requires its suppliers to sign a 'Letter of Commitment of Supplier for Corporate Social Responsibility' and establish an RBA (Responsible Business Alliance). If its suppliers have a significant impact on society due to their inappropriate conduct relating to labour, human rights and environmental pollution, LMO would investigate and consider the possibility of terminating the contract. As part of its ISO 14001 environmental management framework, LMO continuously implements
E Water&wastewater management 3 multiple water conservation measures and promotes water recycling. Measures include enhancing cooling tower concentration ratios, recovering condensate from air handling unit cooling coils, and using a purified water RO R (Reverse Osmosis Reject) recovery system. The Company sources process and utility water from the site water treatment plant to meet operational needs (including ice machine cooling towers, evaporation losses, and water used and evaporated in manufacturing and washing processes). To increase production value per unit of water and improve water use efficiency, factories and buildings are equipped with water meters that are read daily to monitor and control consumption. In 2024, these efforts and technologies resulted in total water savings of approximately 16.79 thousand m³, a water conservation rate of about 33%, representing a 23% increase in total water savings compared
E Waste & hazardous materials management 1 with the prior year. LMO's main wastes include sludge generated from manufacturing wastewater treatment process, chemical waste liquids used in the manufacturing process, chemical-contaminated clean cloths and filtering materials, and waste wafers, as well as employees' daily garbage, nonprocess-generated packaging materials, waste plastics, and other wastes, which are all disposed of by qualified removal and treatment providers. The Company set a short term target of annual hazardous waste generated per unit of product below 0.07 kg/cm2 and achieved 0.043 kg/cm2 in 2024 (a 20.4% reduction year on year). Its medium term target is to reduce hazardous waste per unit of product by 10% in 2025 compared with 2020, with a longer term ambition to lower waste per unit of product by 20% by 2030.
E GHGemissions 3 Starting from 2022, LMO has conducted a greenhouse gas inventory in accordance with ISO 14064-1 in order to accurately grasp the sources of greenhouse gas emissions and emissions from each factory, and to implement various energy-saving and emission reduction measures based on the inventory results. Through continuous improvement programs, LMO minimizes the environmental and climate impacts of global warming from GHG emissions, and fulfills its corporate social responsibility.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 29 Jan 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company