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報告_Daiwa_精測6510_3Q26_20261028

更新 2026-10-29

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_精測6510_3Q26_20261028_original.pdf

原始內容

Chunghwa Precision Test Tech (6510 TT)

Target price: TWD3,815.00 (from TWD4,000.00)

Shareprice(28Oct):TWD3,200.00 | Up/downside:+19.2%

3Q26 review: slight miss; eyes on probe card

  • Robust 4Q26 outlook driven by AI demand
  • Solid AI/HPC project pipeline through 2027
  • Reiterating our Buy (1) call; trimming 12M TP to TWD 3,815

What's new: CHPT released its 3Q26 results on 27 October. 3Q26 revenue reached TWD1,905m (+16.2% QoQ, +53.4% YoY), in line with our forecast, but slightly below the consensus by 3.2%. Gross margin came in at 57.3% (-0.3ppt QoQ, +1ppt YoY), beating our forecast and the consensus by 2.6ppt and 1.8ppt, respectively, mainly driven by a better product mix. Operating profit reached TWD671m (+17.7% QoQ, +118.4% YoY), beating our estimate by 4.8% and largely in line with the consensus. Net profit was TWD551m (+11.6% QoQ, +100% YoY). EPS was TWD16.75, beating our estimate by 4.2% but missing consensus by 4%.

What's the impact: Robust 4Q26 outlook driven by AI demand.

Management guided for 4Q26 revenue to grow by double digits QoQ, implying 2026 revenue growth of 50% YoY, above our previous forecast (+48% YoY) and broadly in line with the consensus estimate, driven by mass shipments of AI ASIC-related SLT boards and burn-in boards. As the product mix shifts towards IC testing board, we expect the 4Q26 gross margin to be diluted to 53.8% (vs. consensus of 55%).

Solid AI/HPC project pipeline. Management expects that probe cards can contribute at most 30% of revenue in 2027, supported by full-stack solution of US automotive customers and the ASIC CPU project. The probe card is undergoing qualification through year-end; volume production will only ramp next year, after verification. For load board, demand from existing US tier-1 AI/HPC IC design customers remains solid, while for the next-gen AI ASIC project, CHPT remains the major supplier of the final test, easing market concerns about losing share to competitors. Management is continuing discussions with customers on SLT and burn-in board opportunities. Radio frequency (RF) projects for US space-related customers in collaboration with a Japanese partner offer additional growth opportunities.

What we recommend: We lower our 2027-28E EPS by 8-10% to reflect gross margin dilution and a higher opex ratio. We lower our 12M TP to TWD3,815 based on a 35x PER on our 4-quarter forward EPS (2027E) and reaffirm our Buy (1) rating. We lower our target PER from 45x to reflect year-end qualification risks; re-rating will need clear validation milestones and better visibility on a volume ramp-up. Key downside risks: delay of AI/HPC projects and unsuccessful qualification of its probe card.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 5-16% below the consensus forecasts, likely reflecting our more conservative opex assumptions.

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Leon Chen (886) 2 8758 6247 leon.chen@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Mike Liu (886) 2 8758 6252 mike.liu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 0.3 (6.0) (1.5)
Net profit change (2.0) (9.9) (8.2)
Core EPS (FD) change (2.1) (10.0) (8.3)

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 1,465.00-4,200.00
Market cap (USDbn) 3.24
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 82.41
Shares outstanding (m) 33
Major shareholderCHUNG HUA INVESTMENT CO LT (33.7%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 7,116 11,397 14,458
Operating profit (m) 2,374 4,363 5,603
Net profit (m) 1,993 3,584 4,586
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 60.623 108.884 139.344
EPS change (%) 99.4 79.6 28.0
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (5.2) (5.3) (15.8)
PER (x) 52.8 29.4 23.0
Dividend yield (%) 0.9 1.7 2.2
DPS 30.3 54.4 69.7
PBR (x) 9.4 7.6 6.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 36.2 20.8 16.0
ROE (%) 19.9 28.5 30.1

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

CHPT: 3Q26 results vs. Daiwa and Bloomberg estimates

(TWDm) CHPT's 3Q26 results QoQ YoY Daiwa forecast Difference Bloomberg consensus Difference
Revenue 1,905 16.2% 53.4% 1,892 0.7% 1,968 -3.2%
Gross profit 1,091 15.6% 55.9% 1,033 5.5% 1,091 0.0%
Operating profit 671 17.7% 118.4% 640 4.8% 688 -2.5%
Profit before tax 682 14.4% 100.6% 652 4.5% 707 -3.6%
Net profit 551 11.6% 100.0% 529 4.3% 578 -4.7%
Basic EPS (TWD) 16.75 11.5% 99.2% 16.08 4.2% 17.47 -4.1%
Margin
Gross margin 57.3% -0.3pp 1.0pp 54.6% 2.6pp 55.4% 1.8pp
Operating margin 35.2% 0.5pp 10.5pp 33.8% 1.4pp 35.0% 0.2pp
Pre tax margin 35.8% -0.6pp 8.4pp 34.5% 1.3pp 35.9% -0.2pp
Net margin 28.9% -1.2pp 6.8pp 27.9% 1.0pp 29.4% -0.5pp

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

CHPT: quarterly and annual P&L statements

(TWDm) 2026E - 1Q 2026E - 2Q 2026E - 3Q 2026E - 4QE 2027E - 1QE 2027E - 2QE 2027E - 3QE 2027E - 4QE 2026E 2027E 2028E
Net sales 1,357 1,640 1,905 2,214 2,138 2,770 3,176 3,312 7,116 11,397 14,458
Gross profit 771 943 1,091 1,192 1,183 1,572 1,816 1,879 3,996 6,450 8,157
Operating costs 373 373 420 456 413 512 572 590 1,623 2,086 2,554
Operating profit 397 570 671 736 771 1,060 1,244 1,289 2,374 4,363 5,603
Pre-tax profit 418 596 682 749 784 1,074 1,257 1,303 2,445 4,418 5,658
Net profit 342 494 551 606 634 869 1,021 1,059 1,993 3,584 4,586
EPS (TWD) 10.43 15.02 16.75 18.42 19.26 26.42 31.03 32.17 60.62 108.88 139.34
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 56.8% 57.5% 57.3% 53.8% 55.4% 56.8% 57.2% 56.7% 56.2% 56.6% 56.4%
Operating margin 29.3% 34.7% 35.2% 33.2% 36.1% 38.3% 39.2% 38.9% 33.4% 38.3% 38.8%
Pre-tax margin 30.8% 36.3% 35.8% 33.8% 36.7% 38.8% 39.6% 39.3% 34.4% 38.8% 39.1%
Net margin 25.2% 30.1% 28.9% 27.4% 29.7% 31.4% 32.2% 32.0% 28.0% 31.4% 31.7%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 18% 35% 53% 85% 57% 69% 67% 50% 48% 60% 27%
Gross profit 24% 39% 56% 78% 54% 67% 66% 58% 50% 61% 26%
Operating income 59% 81% 118% 130% 94% 86% 85% 75% 99% 84% 28%
Net income 55% 129% 100% 113% 85% 76% 85% 75% 100% 80% 28%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 14% 21% 16% 16% -3% 30% 15% 4%
Gross profit 15% 22% 16% 9% -1% 33% 15% 3%
Operating income 24% 43% 18% 10% 5% 37% 17% 4%
Net income 20% 44% 12% 10% 5% 37% 17% 4%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

CHPT: revenue and earnings forecast revisions

(TWDm) 2026E - Previous 2026E - New 2026E - Consensus 2027E - Previous 2027E - New 2027E - Consensus 2028E - Previous 2028E - New 2028E - Consensus
Revenue 7,096 7,116 7,227 12,119 11,397 11,643 14,676 14,458 16,354
Diff (%) 0.3% -1.5% -6.0% -2.1% -1.5% -11.6%
Gross margin (%) 55.8% 56.2% 56.0% 55.0% 56.6% 55.3% 55.6% 56.4% 54.0%
Operating Profit 2,422 2,374 2,488 4,847 4,363 4,573 6,105 5,603 6,589
Operating margin 34.1% 33.4% 34.4% 40.0% 38.3% 39.3% 41.6% 38.8% 40.3%
Net Profit 2,035 1,993 2,104 3,979 3,584 3,786 4,998 4,586 5,460
EPS 61.91 60.62 63.92 121.00 108.88 115.00 152.00 139.34 165.49
Diff (%) -2.1% -5.2% -10.0% -5.3% -8.3% -15.8%

Source: Daiwa estimates and forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Server CPU Shipment (mn) 38 36 23 22 28 36 49 58
AI GPU/ASIC Shipment (mn) 0 0 4 9 12 18 29 33
SmartphoneShipment (mn) 1,655 1,437 1,381 1,439 1,429 1,249 1,235 1,303

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Wafer testing 3,202 3,287 1,956 2,413 3,123 5,025 7,848 9,811
IC testing 657 678 596 786 1,203 1,579 3,085 4,186
Other Revenue 382 423 333 406 481 512 463 461
Total Revenue 4,241 4,389 2,884 3,605 4,806 7,116 11,397 14,458
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (1,950) (2,101) (1,493) (1,678) (2,138) (3,120) (4,947) (6,301)
SG&A (430) (467) (479) (564) (610) (749) (897) (1,088)
Other op.expenses (781) (954) (965) (873) (868) (874) (1,189) (1,466)
Operating profit 1,080 866 (53) 490 1,190 2,374 4,363 5,603
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (1) (2) (1) (1) (1) (28) (17) (20)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 3 46 33 65 35 99 72 75
Pre-tax profit 1,083 910 (21) 554 1,225 2,445 4,418 5,658
Tax (192) (154) 24 (68) (238) (456) (834) (1,071)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 14 30 25 11 5 0 0
Net profit (reported) 891 771 33 510 997 1,993 3,584 4,586
Net profit (adjusted) 891 771 33 510 997 1,993 3,584 4,586
EPS (reported)(TWD) 27.184 23.500 0.990 15.572 30.410 60.623 108.884 139.344
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 27.184 23.500 0.990 15.572 30.410 60.623 108.884 139.344
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 27.184 23.500 0.990 15.572 30.410 60.623 108.884 139.344
DPS (TWD) 13.600 11.750 0.500 7.800 15.235 30.284 54.442 69.672
EBIT 1,080 866 (53) 490 1,190 2,374 4,363 5,603
EBITDA 1,464 1,304 405 942 1,606 2,792 4,780 6,042

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 1,083 910 (21) 554 1,225 2,445 4,418 5,658
Depreciation and amortisation 384 437 458 453 416 418 416 439
Tax paid (192) (154) 24 (68) (238) (456) (834) (1,071)
Change in working capital (177) 254 172 (535) 36 (768) (631) (268)
Other operational CF items (9) (47) (307) 213 136 233 0 0
Cash flow from operations 1,089 1,401 325 616 1,574 1,872 3,369 4,757
Capex (477) (926) (322) (146) (153) (528) (600) (385)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (42) (85) 78 (42) (219) (1,592) 61 80
Cash flow from investing (519) (1,011) (244) (188) (372) (2,121) (539) (305)
Change in debt 0 0 0 0 0 2,563 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (393) (446) (385) (16) (256) (502) (997) (1,792)
Other financing CF items (20) 58 (23) (26) (29) (14) 0 0
Cash flow from financing (414) (388) (409) (43) (285) 2,048 (997) (1,792)
Forex effect/others (2) 7 (2) 15 (6) 10 6 7
Change in cash 155 10 (330) 400 911 1,809 1,840 2,667
Free cash flow 612 475 3 470 1,421 1,343 2,769 4,372

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 3,013 3,023 2,693 3,093 4,004 5,813 7,653 10,319
Inventory 453 440 326 571 787 1,508 2,391 2,733
Accounts receivable 1,069 774 600 1,048 688 1,406 2,035 2,402
Other current assets 122 169 153 225 451 2,068 2,068 2,068
Total current assets 4,657 4,406 3,773 4,936 5,930 10,794 14,146 17,523
Fixed assets 4,064 4,631 4,499 4,222 3,998 4,278 4,462 4,408
Goodwill & intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 0 0 0 0 23 99 38 (42)
Total assets 8,721 9,037 8,272 9,158 9,951 15,171 18,645 21,888
Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5
Accounts payable 890 827 519 847 841 1,806 2,687 3,129
Other current liabilities 254 225 157 232 317 403 403 403
Total current liabilities 1,143 1,052 675 1,079 1,158 2,215 3,095 3,537
Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 1,645 1,645 1,645
Other non-current liabilities 32 26 24 21 13 50 50 50
Total liabilities 1,175 1,078 699 1,101 1,170 3,910 4,790 5,232
Share capital 328 328 328 328 328 329 329 329
Reserves/R.E./others 7,217 7,631 7,246 7,730 8,453 10,933 13,526 16,327
Shareholders' equity 7,545 7,959 7,574 8,058 8,780 11,262 13,855 16,656
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 8,721 9,037 8,272 9,158 9,951 15,171 18,645 21,888
EV 102,210 102,200 102,529 102,130 101,219 101,060 99,220 96,553
Net debt/(cash) (3,013) (3,023) (2,693) (3,093) (4,004) (4,163) (6,003) (8,669)
BVPS (TWD) 230.114 240.436 229.586 245.112 267.481 341.840 420.597 505.657

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 0.8 3.5 (34.3) 25.0 33.3 48.1 60.2 26.9
EBITDA (YoY) (6.1) (10.9) (68.9) 132.7 70.5 73.8 71.2 26.4
Operating profit (YoY) (9.5) (19.8) n.a. n.a. 143.2 99.4 83.8 28.4
Net profit (YoY) (5.3) (13.5) (95.8) 1,465.7 95.4 99.9 79.8 28.0
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) (5.3) (13.6) (95.8) 1,472.9 95.3 99.4 79.6 28.0
Gross-profit margin 54.0 52.1 48.2 53.5 55.5 56.2 56.6 56.4
EBITDA margin 34.5 29.7 14.0 26.1 33.4 39.2 41.9 41.8
Operating-profit margin 25.5 19.7 n.a. 13.6 24.8 33.4 38.3 38.8
Net profit margin 21.0 17.6 1.1 14.2 20.7 28.0 31.4 31.7
ROAE 12.2 9.9 0.4 6.5 11.8 19.9 28.5 30.1
ROAA 10.6 8.7 0.4 5.9 10.4 15.9 21.2 22.6
ROCE 14.8 11.2 n.a. 6.3 14.1 21.9 30.7 33.1
ROIC 20.4 15.2 n.a. 8.7 19.7 32.5 47.3 57.3
Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Effective tax rate 17.7 16.9 0.0 12.3 19.5 18.7 18.9 18.9
Accounts receivable (days) 80.4 76.7 86.9 83.4 65.9 53.7 55.1 56.0
Current ratio (x) 4.1 4.2 5.6 4.6 5.1 4.9 4.6 5.0
Net interest cover (x) 1,124.2 563.9 (14.8) 484.4 1,460.9 88.2 258.2 278.5
Net dividend payout 50.0 50.0 50.5 50.2 50.1 50.0 50.0 50.0
Free cash flow yield 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.3 2.6 4.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 2005, CHPT originated from the high-speed PCB team at Chunghwa Telecom Laboratories. The company provides semiconductor test interfaces for wafer-level and final testing stages, including MEMS probe cards, high-layer-count probe card PCBs, interposers, and IC load boards, with growing exposure to AI and HPC applications.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analystcomments
Executive/board quality 1 The board demonstrates strong governance quality through independent oversight, ESG integration, transparent disclosure practices, and consistent top-5% governance rankings, supporting effective strategic execution and long-term stakeholder value creation.
G Capital management 2 The company maintains a prudent capital structure, strong profitability, and disciplined investment approach, balancing growth, R&D spending, sustainability investments, and risk management tosupport long-termfinancial resilience.
Related party & transaction 2 No significant concerns were identified regarding related-party transactions. Clear conflict-of- interest policies, director recusal procedures, and strong audit committee oversight help safeguard transparency and protect shareholder interests.
S Supplychain management 1 The company exhibits robust supply chain management through comprehensive supplier evaluations, sustainability assessments, on-site audits, ethical compliance requirements, and supply continuity planning, strengthening operational resilience and responsible sourcing.
E Water&wastewater management 1 Water stewardship is well managed through wastewater recycling, source reduction initiatives, and continuous monitoring, achieving a 60.55% wastewater reuse rate while reducing environmental impacts and improving resource efficiency.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 7 Aug 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-10-29)

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_精測6510_3Q26_20261028_001.png 25KB 真資料圖(股價走勢小圖,財務/股價類不嵌 lib) CHPT 股價(左軸 TWD)與相對 TWOTCI 指數(右軸)折線,2025-10 至 2026-10;股價 1,000 附近起漲、2026-01 前後高點約 4,000、近期約 3,000