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報告_Daiwa_穩懋3105_20261029

更新 2026-10-30

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-10-30)

ingest 時建立的「眼見為憑」圖片索引,是 lib/ 嵌圖的唯一真相來源;建立步驟見 ingest_steps.md Step 2.5。

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報告_Daiwa_穩懋3105_20261029_001.png 22KB 真資料圖(股價) 穩懋(左軸,TWD 0-650)與相對 TWOTCI(右軸)2025-10 至 2026-10 走勢折線,2026-04 高點約 650,期末約 540
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報告_Daiwa_穩懋3105_20261029_003.png 51KB 真資料圖(估值) 穩懋股價與 4 季遠期本益比區間(10x、20x、30x、40x、50x、60x)2011-12 至 2026-12,2026 年股價落在約 40-60x 帶

報告_Daiwa_穩懋3105_20261029

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_穩懋3105_20261029_original.pdf

原始內容

Win Semiconductors (3105 TT)

Target price: TWD620.00 (from TWD449.00)

Shareprice(28Oct):TWD540.00 | Up/downside:+14.8%

Downgrading: profit optimisation on the go

  • Raising our forecasts on a higher margin trajectory
  • Growth pillars paying off across infrastructure, optics and RF
  • Downgrading our rating to Outperform (2), with a higher TP of TWD620

What's new: Following our results memo, we raise our forecasts and TP for Win Semiconductors (WinSemi), but lower our rating by one notch to Outperform (2) on valuation grounds. While its topline trajectory appears to be unfolding intact, its margin trajectory is running better than our expectations. This, together with management's positive commentary across its key business lines of RF, infrastructure and optics, reinforces our thesis that 3 growth pillars will turn around WinSemi's bottom line and optimise its structural profitability (Upgrading: profit optimisation round the corner, 24 July). We suggest accumulating only on pullbacks.

What's the impact: Forecast revisions. We raise our 2027-28E EPS by 2-11% for WinSemi to factor in its higher margin trajectory, primarily on better product mix geared towards the infrastructure business, followed by the ramp-up in optics for AI optical communications (OC). We note the surge in our 2026E EPS revision is a result of the company's non-operating gains of TWD684m in 3Q26, mainly from its 23%-owned ITEQ (6213 TT, TWD778, Buy [1], covered by Sheng Cheng), which distorts WinSemi's growth trajectory at the bottom line into 2027.

Transformation paying off. At its results call, management commented on resilient RF demand from iOS and for WiFi routers, strong demand for low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite communications, and a continued ramp in pin diode (PD) sales after the product entered mass-production from late2Q26. This should be followed by laser diode (LD), such as continuous wave (CW) and electro-absorption modulated laser (EML), though customer qualifications will take time. All the commentary reinforces our thesis that 3 growth pillars will help turn around WinSemi's bottom line for profitability optimisation after its business transformation: 1) RF business transformation paying off with premiumisation across cellular and WiFi for differentiation, 2) high-margin infrastructure scaling up on a robust LEO build, and 3) AI OC ramping fast, with broadened offerings from peripheral chips (optical drivers and modulators) to core chips for PD and LD.

What we recommend: Given our forecast revisions, we lift our 12M TP for WinSemi to TWD620 (previous: TWD449), based on a higher 4-quarter forward PER target of 55x (previous: 50x), justified by its 2025-28E EPS CAGR of 54% (previous: 50%) from a PEG perspective. Yet we lower our rating by one notch to Outperform (2) on valuation grounds, with key downside risk of commodity cost hikes worsening consumer demand.

How we differ: Our 2026E EPS is 40% above consensus due to our inclusion of the non-operating gains in 3Q26, while our 2027E EPS is 9% above likely on our higher margin assumptions.

5

4

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Rick Hsu (886) 2 8758 6261 rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Sam Weng (886) 2 8758 6255 sam.weng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (0.2) 1.6 1.4
Net profit change 46.3 10.9 1.8
Core EPS (FD) change 46.3 10.9 1.8

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 97.80-617.00
Market cap (USDbn) 7.06
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 373.97
Shares outstanding (m) 424
Major shareholder Cathay Life Insurance Co Ltd (5.6%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 21,804 27,628 31,807
Operating profit (m) 3,911 5,968 7,610
Net profit (m) 4,507 4,742 6,136
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 10.630 11.186 14.475
EPS change (%) 166.1 5.2 29.4
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 39.7 9.2 (10.1)
PER (x) 50.8 48.3 37.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.9 1.0
DPS 2.0 5.0 5.5
PBR (x) 5.5 5.1 4.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 32.8 24.5 21.2
ROE (%) 10.8 11.0 13.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

WinSemi: quarterly P&L estimates and forecasts

TWDm 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cellular 1,606 1,735 1,641 1,526 1,404 1,544 1,621 1,540 5,299 6,507 6,109 6,354
Infrastructure 1,515 1,735 2,226 2,230 2,045 2,353 2,489 2,332 5,529 7,706 9,219 10,202
WiFi 912 868 914 868 799 903 957 909 2,927 3,563 3,567 3,790
Optics & others 556 919 1,078 1,474 1,717 2,096 2,314 2,604 2,883 4,027 8,732 11,461
Total revenue 4,590 5,257 5,859 6,098 5,964 6,896 7,382 7,386 16,638 21,803 27,628 31,807
COGS -3,381 -3,773 -3,669 -3,830 -3,878 -4,375 -4,604 -4,566 -12,612 -14,652 -17,423 -19,319
Gross profit 1,209 1,485 2,190 2,268 2,086 2,521 2,777 2,820 4,025 7,151 10,205 12,488
Opex -778 -743 -775 -945 -930 -1,062 -1,115 -1,130 -3,311 -3,240 -4,237 -4,878
Operating profit 431 742 1,415 1,323 1,156 1,459 1,663 1,690 715 3,911 5,968 7,610
EBITDA 1,223 1,522 2,142 2,158 1,979 2,314 2,509 2,450 4,709 7,046 9,251 10,494
Non-op gains/losses 101 447 698 11 -5 -10 -15 -10 672 1,256 -40 60
Pretax profit 532 1,188 2,113 1,334 1,151 1,449 1,648 1,680 1,387 5,167 5,928 7,670
Income taxes -83 -284 -288 -267 -230 -290 -330 -336 -297 -922 -1,186 -1,534
Net profit 533 977 1,929 1,067 921 1,159 1,318 1,344 1,694 4,507 4,742 6,136
FD O/S (m) 424 424 424 424 424 424 424 424 424 424 424 424
FD EPS (TWD) 1.26 2.30 4.55 2.52 2.17 2.73 3.11 3.17 4.00 10.63 11.19 14.47
Revenue mix
Cellular 35% 33% 28% 25% 24% 22% 22% 21% 32% 30% 22% 20%
Infrastructure 33% 33% 38% 37% 34% 34% 34% 32% 33% 35% 33% 32%
WiFi 20% 17% 16% 14% 13% 13% 13% 12% 18% 16% 13% 12%
Optical & others 12% 17% 18% 24% 29% 30% 31% 35% 17% 18% 32% 36%
Margin
Gross 26% 28% 37% 37% 35% 37% 38% 38% 24% 33% 37% 39%
Operating 9% 14% 24% 22% 19% 21% 23% 23% 4% 18% 22% 24%
EBITDA 27% 29% 37% 35% 33% 34% 34% 33% 28% 32% 33% 33%
Net 12% 19% 33% 17% 15% 17% 18% 18% 10% 21% 17% 19%
Growth (QoQ)
Cellular revenue 16% 8% -5% -7% -8% 10% 5% -5%
Infrastructure revenue -7% 15% 28% 0% -8% 15% 6% -6%
WiFi revenue 3% -5% 5% -5% -8% 13% 6% -5%
Optics & other revenue -37% 65% 17% 37% 17% 22% 10% 13%
Total revenue -4% 15% 11% 4% -2% 16% 7% 0%
Gross profit -21% 23% 48% 4% -8% 21% 10% 2%
Operating profit -35% 72% 91% -7% -13% 26% 14% 2%
EBITDA -19% 24% 41% 1% -8% 17% 8% -2%
Net profit -48% 83% 97% -45% -14% 26% 14% 2%
FD EPS -48% 83% 97% -45% -14% 26% 14% 2%
Growth (YoY)
Cellular revenue 36% 39% 11% 10% -13% -11% -1% 1% -24% 23% -6% 4%
Infrastructure revenue 25% 39% 55% 37% 35% 36% 12% 5% 12% 39% 20% 11%
WiFi revenue 72% 21% 15% -2% -12% 4% 5% 5% 20% 22% 0% 6%
Optics & other revenue -14% 61% 39% 66% 209% 128% 115% 77% -6% 40% 117% 31%
Total revenue 28% 39% 31% 27% 30% 31% 26% 21% -5% 31% 27% 15%
Gross profit 102% 113% 82% 49% 73% 70% 27% 24% 0% 78% 43% 22%
Operating profit nm nm 267% 99% 168% 97% 17% 28% -6% 447% 53% 28%
EBITDA 34% 62% 59% 43% 62% 52% 17% 14% -14% 50% 31% 13%
Net profit nm nm 80% 4% 73% 19% -32% 26% 121% 166% 5% 29%
FD EPS nm nm 80% 4% 73% 19% -32% 26% 121% 166% 5% 29%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

WinSemi: PBR trend

WinSemi: 4-quarter forward PER band

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts:

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Wafer shipment (6" equ) 483,237 316,573 265,500 300,450 292,525 364,399 397,121 432,527
Utilisation rate (%) 94 61 50 55 54 68 84 93
Blended wafer ASP (USD) 1,730 1,709 1,635 1,607 1,623 1,648 1,696 1,711

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cellular & WiFi 16,469 9,168 8,263 9,446 8,226 10,070 9,676 10,144
Infrastructure 5,071 5,276 4,075 4,943 5,529 7,706 9,219 10,202
Other Revenue 4,642 3,891 3,499 3,069 2,884 4,028 8,732 11,461
Total Revenue 26,182 18,334 15,836 17,458 16,639 21,804 27,628 31,807
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (16,412) (13,610) (12,367) (13,416) (12,612) (14,652) (17,423) (19,319)
SG&A (2,015) (1,557) (1,679) (1,590) (1,709) (1,856) (2,165) (2,492)
Other op.expenses (1,332) (1,684) (1,846) (1,691) (1,603) (1,385) (2,072) (2,386)
Operating profit 6,424 1,484 (56) 762 715 3,911 5,968 7,610
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (246) (204) (437) (587) (478) (235) (140) (40)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 222 547 (186) 158 1,150 1,491 100 100
Pre-tax profit 6,401 1,826 (679) 332 1,387 5,167 5,928 7,670
Tax (1,189) (411) 121 7 (297) (922) (1,186) (1,534)
Min. int./pref. div./others 245 388 478 428 604 261 0 0
Net profit (reported) 5,456 1,802 (80) 768 1,694 4,507 4,742 6,136
Net profit (adjusted) 5,456 1,802 (80) 768 1,694 4,507 4,742 6,136
EPS (reported)(TWD) 12.898 4.252 (0.188) 1.811 3.995 10.630 11.186 14.475
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 12.898 4.252 (0.188) 1.811 3.995 10.630 11.186 14.475
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 12.070 4.050 (0.188) 1.811 3.995 10.630 11.186 14.475
DPS (TWD) 10.025 8.002 2.500 0.000 1.000 2.000 5.000 5.500
EBIT 6,424 1,484 (56) 762 715 3,911 5,968 7,610
EBITDA 10,591 5,787 4,685 5,462 4,709 7,046 9,251 10,494

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 6,401 1,826 (679) 332 1,387 5,167 5,928 7,670
Depreciation and amortisation 4,167 4,304 4,740 4,700 3,994 3,134 3,284 2,883
Tax paid (1,189) (411) 121 7 (297) (922) (1,186) (1,534)
Change in working capital (1,738) 1,743 422 (227) 207 (1,400) (250) (650)
Other operational CF items 175 (1,492) (335) 88 (338) 261 0 0
Cash flow from operations 7,815 5,968 4,270 4,900 4,953 6,241 7,776 8,370
Capex (8,081) (7,124) (3,209) (1,222) (1,691) (2,000) (1,500) (1,000)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (6,514) 43 456 166 6,804 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (14,594) (7,081) (2,753) (1,055) 5,112 (2,000) (1,500) (1,000)
Change in debt 18,581 (1,384) (7) (8,113) (7,202) (1,233) (1,110) (999)
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (4,240) (3,392) (1,060) 0 (424) (848) (2,120) (2,332)
Other financing CF items 491 (248) (609) (826) (654) 100 100 100
Cash flow from financing 14,831 (5,023) (1,676) (8,939) (8,280) (1,981) (3,129) (3,230)
Forex effect/others (76) 184 106 188 (138) 0 0 0
Change in cash 7,975 (5,952) (54) (4,906) 1,648 2,260 3,146 4,139
Free cash flow (266) (1,156) 1,061 3,678 3,262 4,241 6,276 7,370

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 16,394 10,501 10,469 5,695 7,391 9,651 12,797 16,937
Inventory 6,671 5,420 5,111 4,992 4,979 5,929 6,229 6,629
Accounts receivable 2,718 917 1,149 1,226 1,597 1,947 2,547 2,647
Other current assets 672 376 435 543 590 450 450 450
Total current assets 26,455 17,213 17,163 12,455 14,557 17,977 22,023 26,663
Fixed assets 27,784 31,546 31,312 28,265 19,672 19,132 17,841 16,390
Goodwill & intangibles 5,187 4,944 3,588 3,538 5,409 3,060 3,055 3,050
Other non-current assets 15,468 15,425 17,104 20,000 21,091 21,091 21,091 21,091
Total assets 74,894 69,128 69,168 64,259 60,729 61,260 64,010 67,194
Short-term debt 0 0 21 26 330 330 330 330
Accounts payable 2,163 1,017 1,362 1,094 1,662 1,562 2,212 2,062
Other current liabilities 5,052 5,230 11,340 6,483 3,873 5,033 5,210 5,399
Total current liabilities 7,215 6,247 12,724 7,603 5,865 6,925 7,752 7,791
Long-term debt 29,279 26,540 20,030 16,532 12,328 11,095 9,986 8,987
Other non-current liabilities 1,278 1,152 1,065 986 545 1,000 1,100 1,200
Total liabilities 37,772 33,939 33,819 25,121 18,738 19,020 18,838 17,978
Share capital 4,240 4,239 4,239 4,239 4,239 4,239 4,239 4,239
Reserves/R.E./others 30,698 29,089 29,716 33,879 37,306 37,500 40,333 44,276
Shareholders' equity 34,938 33,329 33,955 38,118 41,545 41,739 44,573 48,516
Minority interests 2,184 1,861 1,394 1,020 446 500 600 700
Total equity & liabilities 74,894 69,128 69,168 64,259 60,729 61,260 64,010 67,194
EV 243,997 246,828 239,903 240,811 234,641 231,202 227,046 222,009
Net debt/(cash) 12,886 16,039 9,582 10,864 5,268 1,775 (2,481) (7,619)
BVPS (TWD) 82.600 78.631 80.094 89.914 97.998 98.456 105.139 114.440

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 2.5 (30.0) (13.6) 10.2 (4.7) 31.0 26.7 15.1
EBITDA (YoY) (8.1) (45.4) (19.1) 16.6 (13.8) 49.6 31.3 13.4
Operating profit (YoY) (17.5) (76.9) n.a. n.a. (6.2) 447.2 52.6 27.5
Net profit (YoY) (16.4) (67.0) n.a. n.a. 120.6 166.1 5.2 29.4
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) (21.6) (66.4) n.a. n.a. 120.6 166.1 5.2 29.4
Gross-profit margin 37.3 25.8 21.9 23.2 24.2 32.8 36.9 39.3
EBITDA margin 40.5 31.6 29.6 31.3 28.3 32.3 33.5 33.0
Operating-profit margin 24.5 8.1 n.a. 4.4 4.3 17.9 21.6 23.9
Net profit margin 20.8 9.8 n.a. 4.4 10.2 20.7 17.2 19.3
ROAE 15.8 5.3 n.a. 2.1 4.3 10.8 11.0 13.2
ROAA 8.4 2.5 n.a. 1.2 2.7 7.4 7.6 9.4
ROCE 11.3 2.3 n.a. 1.4 1.3 7.2 10.9 13.3
ROIC 11.9 2.3 n.a. 1.6 1.5 7.0 11.0 14.4
Net debt to equity 36.9 48.1 28.2 28.5 12.7 4.3 n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 18.6 22.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.8 20.0 20.0
Accounts receivable (days) 33.1 36.2 23.8 24.8 31.0 29.7 29.7 29.8
Current ratio (x) 3.7 2.8 1.3 1.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.4
Net interest cover (x) 26.2 7.3 n.a. 1.3 1.5 16.6 42.6 190.3
Net dividend payout 64.8 62.2 58.8 0.0 25.0 18.8 44.7 38.0
Free cash flow yield n.a. n.a. 0.5 1.6 1.4 1.9 2.7 3.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1999, Win Semiconductors Corp (WinSemi) is the world's largest compound semiconductor foundry, focusing on gallium-arsenide (GaAs) foundry services for customers in both wireless and wireline communication markets, as well as infrastructure applications. It has a diverse technology portfolio of processes that supports microwave frequency requirements from 50MHz to 100GHz, with applications including smartphones, tablet PCs, cellular base-stations, very small aperture terminals (VSAT) and fibre optics. It has started penetrating into vertical cavity surface emitting laser (VCSEL) foundries since 2017 for consumer laser applications such as 3D laser sensors and cameras.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analystcomments
quality Executive/board 2 WinSemi's board of directors (BoD) has 10 members, including 3 independent directors, representing 30% of total directors. Among the BoD, three of its non-independent directors are also executive management.
G Capital management 2 Since 2017, its dividend payout ratio has remained above 58%, except for 2024 when no dividend was paid. Despite being the largest compound semiconductor foundry in the world, WinSemi is continually expanding its capacity for future growth. Thus, we see the balance between investment and dividend as appropriate.
Related party & transaction 1 It did not have any meaningful related-party transactions in 2023.
S Supplychain management 2 WinSemi We actively cooperate with local suppliers and improve their development capabilities, reduce carbon emissions and create local employment opportunities. WinSemi also conducts on- site audits of suppliers and annual assessment of suppliers on environmental protection and safety & health management systems. In 2023, 100% of WinSemi's new suppliers signed the "WIN Supplier Code of Conduct".'"
E Water&wastewater management 1 Effluent that flows out of WinSemi's facilities will first undergo pre-treatment in-house and then treatment by the wastewater treatment plant at Hwaya Technology Park before discharge. The plant has an acid and alkali wastewater recycling system and chemical mechanical polishing wastewater recycling system for wastewater management.
E Waste & hazardous materials management 1 WinSemi has established a hazardous substance-free management procedure and also collaborates with its suppliers to produce products that are hazardous substance-free for customers and consumers. WinSemi specifies in purchase contracts and order forms with its suppliers that the provided materials may not contain hazardous substances as defined by WinSemi. For waste management, it aims to increase the recycling rate of waste solvents and reduce the use of raw materials in production.
E GHGemissions 1 For reduction of energy consumption, it prioritises high-efficiency and low energy consumption models when replacing equipment and has also established annual energy conservation management objectives. WinSemi targets to reduce electricity consumption (kWh/6"e wafer) by 12% from 2018 to 458.58 and PFCs emission (ton CO2e/6"e wafer) by 50% from 2018 to 0.114 in 2030.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 4 May 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company