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報告_Daiwa_台達電2308_20260930

更新 2026-10-01

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_台達電2308_20260930_001.png 22,866B 真資料圖 股價走勢折線圖:Delta Ele 股價(左軸,TWD 800-2,550)與相對 TWSE 指數表現(右軸,%),橫軸 2025/9–2026/6
報告_Daiwa_台達電2308_20260930_002.png 31,334B 真資料圖 1 年期前瞻 PER band 圖:股價線(深藍)對應 23x/31x/39x/49x 四條本益比軌跡線,橫軸 2017/9–2026/9;trimmed 文字將此圖誤標在「product mix (yearly)」標題下,圖片實際內容為 PER band(非產品組合長條圖),以親眼所見為準

本份報告僅 2 張圖,均 <40KB 但內容清晰可辨,逐張 Read 確認均為真資料圖,無裝飾/文字卡。

原始內容

Delta Electronics (2308 TT)

Target price: TWD3,088.00 (from TWD2,988.00)

Shareprice(29Sep):TWD1,835.00 | Up/downside:+68.3%

Key beneficiary of the AI ASIC server trend

  • Better-than-expected DC-DC AI server contribution from 2026E
  • HVDC adoption rate should be higher-than-expected in 2028E
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating and raising 12M TP to TWD3,088

What's new: We provide our views on Delta after c.4 months of share price weakness, driven by investor concerns on HVDC delays, and a slowdown in power consumption trend amid deceleration in Nvidia's GPU shipment growth YoY. We remain positive on Delta over 2026-28E, as rising AI ASIC server trend should drive a meaningful increase in DC-DC power module ASPs (vs. Nvidia's discrete form factor). We expect higher HVDC adoption from 2028E, driven by IT rack and power supply architecture changes.

What's the impact: Component shortages are the key near-term bottleneck. We attribute the recent share-price weakness to slower-thanexpected revenue momentum in both 2Q26, due to vendor-sanction issue at Delta Thailand, and 3Q26E, due to a worsening shortage of power semiconductors. We believe the 2Q26 revenue shortfall was a one-off event, though 3Q26E growth is likely to remain constrained by the powersemi shortage. While supply capacity should improve, the supply-demand gap will likely persist for some time. That said, end-demand should remain sound. Given the continued improvement in revenue momentum, we still expect operating margin to reach a record-high of 18.3% in 3Q26.

Long-term growth drivers. We see Delta as a key beneficiary of the AI ASIC server trend. We were previously concerned that rising AI ASIC adoption could hurt Delta, as ASICs have lower thermal design power (TDP) than Nvidia GPUs, but now believe that Delta will benefit from rising content value of DC-DC power modules, as hyperscalers are more willing to spend on DC-DC modules (vs. discrete) despite higher initial cost given their superior energy efficiency. We forecast DC-DC power module revenue to reach c.TWD60bn in 2026E (vs. TWD9bn in 2025 and our prior estimate of c.TWD20bn for 2026E). This figure could increase further with rising ASIC usage in 2027. We also believe HVDC adoption rate could reach at least 50% in 2028E (vs. our prior expectation of 30%), as power supply architecture is becoming increasingly bulky (to accommodate aluminium capacitors inside power supply amid the super capacitor shortage). Limited space in IT racks would force customers to adopt more power racks and likely equip them with high voltage versions to improve efficiency.

What we recommend: We raise our 2026-28E EPS by 2-15% on higher HVDC contribution. We lift our 12M TP to TWD3,088 (from TWD2,988) based on a lower target PER of 49x (from 55x) to reflect market sentiment, (at the high-end of its past-3-year range of 11-50x) applied to our 1-yearforward EPS. Key downside risk: lower-than-expected demand.

How we differ: Our 2028E earnings is 21% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely due to our more bullish assumption for HVDC adoption.

3

2

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(unchanged)

Sheng Cheng (886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Thomas Kim (886) 2 8758 6249 thomas.kim@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 1.9 5.0 14.2
Net profit change 1.7 3.1 14.6
Core EPS (FD) change 1.7 3.1 14.6

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

報告_Daiwa_台達電2308_20260930_001
12-month range 854.00-2,520.00
Market cap (USDbn) 149.32
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 663.47
Shares outstanding (m) 2,598
Major shareholder HsiangTa International (10.3%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 772,369 1,130,604 1,830,517
Operating profit (m) 139,487 228,659 406,934
Net profit (m) 104,917 165,332 296,181
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 40.391 63.649 114.023
EPS change (%) 74.5 57.6 79.1
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (0.6) (0.5) 20.7
PER (x) 45.4 28.8 16.1
Dividend yield (%) 0.6 1.1 1.6
DPS 11.6 20.0 30.0
PBR (x) 12.9 9.5 6.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 28.2 18.0 10.4
ROE (%) 32.9 38.1 47.6

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Delta Electronics: revenue and earnings forecasts - Daiwa vs. consensus

(TWDm) 2026E - Previous 2026E - New 2026E - Consensus 2027E - Previous 2027E - New 2027E - Consensus 2028E - Previous 2028E - New 2028E - Consensus
Revenue 758,318 772,369 776,290 1,077,026 1,130,604 1,041,896 1,603,479 1,830,517 1,547,778
Diff (%) 1.9% -0.5% 5.0% 8.5% 14.2% 18.3%
Gross Margin (%) 36.3% 36.4% 36.3% 36.4% 36.6% 37.3% 36.8% 37.4% 37.8%
Operating profit 136,739 139,487 140,319 218,460 228,659 226,483 354,257 406,934 337,447
Op Margin (%) 18.0% 18.1% 18.1% 20.3% 20.2% 21.7% 22.1% 22.2% 21.8%
Net profit 103,133 104,917 105,513 160,325 165,332 166,236 258,555 296,181 245,392
EPS 39.70 40.39 40.62 61.72 63.65 64.00 99.54 114.02 94.47
Diff (%) 1.7% -0.6% 3.1% -0.5% 14.6% 20.7%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Delta: quarterly and annual P&L statement

(TWDm) 2026E - 1Q 2026E - 2Q 2026E - 3QE 2026E - 4QE 2027E - 1QE 2027E - 2QE 2027E - 3QE 2027E - 4QE 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Net revenue 159,353 183,256 203,032 226,728 227,803 262,584 301,325 338,892 554,885 772,369 1,130,604 1,830,517
COGS -100,392 -117,948 -129,236 -144,028 -144,973 -165,994 -189,980 -215,565 -364,729 -491,604 -716,512 -1,146,765
Gross profit 58,961 65,308 73,796 82,700 82,830 96,590 111,345 123,327 190,157 280,765 414,092 683,753
Operating expenses -30,544 -34,738 -36,546 -39,451 -39,638 -44,114 -48,815 -52,867 -106,224 -141,278 -185,434 -276,818
Operating profit 28,417 30,570 37,250 43,250 43,193 52,476 62,531 70,460 83,932 139,487 228,659 406,934
Non-operating profit 2,676 4,430 1,695 1,709 1,218 1,210 1,208 1,411 3,934 10,510 5,047 5,344
Pretax profit 31,093 35,000 38,946 44,959 44,410 53,686 63,739 71,871 87,866 149,997 233,706 412,278
Income taxes -7,258 -7,831 -8,568 -9,891 -9,770 -11,811 -14,023 -15,812 -19,930 -33,548 -51,415 -88,640
Net profit 20,556 25,136 27,332 31,894 31,223 37,936 45,196 50,976 60,108 104,917 165,332 296,181
Net EPS (TWD) 7.91 9.68 10.52 12.28 12.02 14.60 17.40 19.62 23.14 40.39 63.65 114.02
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 37.0% 35.6% 36.3% 36.5% 36.4% 36.8% 37.0% 36.4% 34.3% 36.4% 36.6% 37.4%
Operating margin 17.8% 16.7% 18.3% 19.1% 19.0% 20.0% 20.8% 20.8% 15.1% 18.1% 20.2% 22.2%
Pre-tax margin 19.5% 19.1% 19.2% 19.8% 19.5% 20.4% 21.2% 21.2% 15.8% 19.4% 20.7% 22.5%
Net margin 12.9% 13.7% 13.5% 14.1% 13.7% 14.4% 15.0% 15.0% 10.8% 13.6% 14.6% 16.2%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 34% 48% 35% 40% 43% 43% 48% 49% 32% 39% 46% 62%
Gross profit 56% 48% 41% 48% 40% 48% 51% 49% 39% 48% 47% 65%
Operating profit 102% 64% 50% 64% 52% 72% 68% 63% 76% 66% 64% 78%
Pretax profit 99% 79% 44% 75% 43% 53% 64% 60% 71% 71% 56% 76%
Net profit 101% 80% 47% 84% 52% 51% 65% 60% 71% 75% 58% 79%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue -1% 15% 11% 12% 0% 15% 15% 12%
Gross profit 5% 11% 13% 12% 0% 17% 15% 11%
Operating profit 8% 8% 22% 16% 0% 21% 19% 13%
Pretax profit 21% 13% 11% 15% -1% 21% 19% 13%
Net profit 19% 22% 9% 17% -2% 22% 19% 13%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Delta: 1-year-forward PER band

Delta: product mix (yearly)

報告_Daiwa_台達電2308_20260930_002
Product mix (TWDm) 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Power supply
Server 63,046 76,230 93,520 113,763
AI server 61,351 167,394 317,839 737,386
Infrastructure
Datacentre Infra 54,695 62,623 73,966 91,437
liquid cooling equipment 46,900 106,732 252,621 450,779
BBU 11,500 20,885 35,367 51,524
AI-related sales 174,446 357,633 679,792 1,331,125
% of mix 31% 46% 60% 73%
Server-related sales 237,492 433,863 773,312 1,444,888
% of mix 43% 56% 68% 79%

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Automation revenue growth (YoY) 18 19 (0) (3) 5 10 7 6
Infrastructure revenue growth (YoY) (8) 26 (4) 2 82 46 68 54
Power Electronics sales growth (YoY) 21 21 9 (10) 25 47 42 76

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Power Electronics 187,316 227,311 248,257 223,992 280,032 412,588 584,196 1,030,133
Automation 45,881 54,519 54,296 52,403 54,943 60,345 64,800 68,944
Other Revenue 81,474 102,613 98,674 144,752 219,911 299,436 481,607 731,441
Total Revenue 314,671 384,443 401,227 421,148 554,885 772,369 1,130,604 1,830,517
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (224,461) (273,671) (284,013) (284,567) (364,729) (491,604) (716,512) (1,146,765)
SG&A (31,642) (37,564) (40,215) (47,354) (57,482) (75,990) (95,620) (141,409)
Other op.expenses (27,202) (31,770) (36,048) (41,575) (48,743) (65,288) (89,814) (135,409)
Operating profit 31,365 41,439 40,950 47,652 83,932 139,487 228,659 406,934
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 134 38 899 1,859 1,501 1,591 1,567 1,564
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 4,128 4,588 6,793 1,804 2,433 8,919 3,480 3,780
Pre-tax profit 35,628 46,065 48,642 51,316 87,866 149,997 233,706 412,278
Tax (7,128) (9,075) (9,762) (10,925) (19,930) (33,548) (51,415) (88,640)
Min. int./pref. div./others (1,703) (4,325) (5,488) (5,163) (7,828) (11,532) (16,959) (27,458)
Net profit (reported) 26,796 32,666 33,393 35,229 60,108 104,917 165,332 296,181
Net profit (adjusted) 26,796 32,666 33,393 35,229 60,108 104,917 165,332 296,181
EPS (reported)(TWD) 10.316 12.576 12.855 13.562 23.140 40.391 63.649 114.023
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 10.316 12.576 12.855 13.562 23.140 40.391 63.649 114.023
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 10.316 12.576 12.855 13.562 23.140 40.391 63.649 114.023
DPS (TWD) 5.500 5.500 9.840 6.430 7.000 11.600 20.000 30.000
EBIT 31,365 41,439 40,950 47,652 83,932 139,487 228,659 406,934
EBITDA 48,516 60,375 62,540 72,668 111,771 168,652 265,796 451,602

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 35,628 46,065 48,642 51,316 87,866 149,997 233,706 412,278
Depreciation and amortisation 17,151 18,936 21,590 25,016 27,839 29,164 37,138 44,667
Tax paid (7,128) (9,075) (9,762) (10,925) (19,930) (33,548) (51,415) (88,640)
Change in working capital (20,506) (20,062) 2,466 (2,538) (24,348) (79,476) (110,688) (146,647)
Other operational CF items 3,175 10,665 8,151 10,025 27,047 (175) (80) (80)
Cash flow from operations 28,319 46,529 71,086 72,895 98,474 65,964 108,660 221,579
Capex (23,027) (21,824) (27,830) (33,485) (46,091) (71,830) (67,836) (87,865)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (1,953) (2,489) (5,421) (304) (2,702) 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (1,501) (406) (251) (6,571) (4,420) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (26,481) (24,719) (33,502) (40,360) (53,214) (71,830) (67,836) (87,865)
Change in debt 6,993 (1,900) 10,327 7,135 11,729 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (15,751) (15,026) (27,455) (18,696) (20,313) (30,132) (51,951) (77,926)
Other financing CF items 421 (2,814) 6,651 444 (817) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (8,337) (19,739) (10,478) (11,118) (9,401) (30,132) (51,951) (77,926)
Forex effect/others (2,358) 9,621 (1,198) 8,586 (2,146) 0 0 0
Change in cash (8,857) 11,692 25,909 30,003 33,713 (35,998) (11,127) 55,788
Free cash flow 5,292 24,705 43,257 39,410 52,383 (5,867) 40,824 133,714

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 51,268 63,572 92,620 121,793 155,113 119,115 107,988 163,776
Inventory 69,697 83,980 81,756 89,706 108,208 148,085 222,038 331,596
Accounts receivable 72,700 89,676 81,706 92,180 125,020 172,147 248,968 367,286
Other current assets 3,213 3,222 3,877 7,246 7,440 7,440 7,440 7,440
Total current assets 196,878 240,450 259,958 310,925 395,781 446,788 586,434 870,097
Fixed assets 76,607 86,267 98,002 115,710 142,040 184,706 215,404 258,602
Goodwill & intangibles 73,610 77,170 78,544 78,783 75,326 75,326 75,326 75,326
Other non-current assets 18,017 21,987 21,242 26,480 26,472 26,646 26,726 26,806
Total assets 365,112 425,874 457,747 531,898 639,619 733,466 903,890 1,230,832
Short-term debt 4,442 2,119 5,875 8,121 17,325 2,364 2,364 2,364
Accounts payable 54,570 62,716 53,539 69,223 94,452 101,981 142,066 223,295
Other current liabilities 49,157 60,179 66,671 74,939 97,888 97,888 97,888 97,888
Total current liabilities 108,169 125,013 126,085 152,283 209,665 202,234 242,318 323,547
Long-term debt 43,914 44,337 51,420 56,309 56,703 56,703 56,703 56,703
Other non-current liabilities 26,904 31,156 37,506 43,740 47,861 47,861 47,861 47,861
Total liabilities 178,988 200,507 215,011 252,332 314,230 306,798 346,883 428,112
Share capital 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975 25,975
Reserves/R.E./others 128,811 160,813 173,188 204,112 242,083 343,361 473,701 719,413
Shareholders' equity 154,787 186,789 199,164 230,087 268,058 369,337 499,677 745,389
Minority interests 31,338 38,578 43,572 49,478 57,331 57,331 57,331 57,331
Total equity & liabilities 365,112 425,874 457,747 531,898 639,619 733,466 903,890 1,230,832
EV 4,794,918 4,787,955 4,774,739 4,758,607 4,742,738 4,763,776 4,774,903 4,719,115
Net debt/(cash) (2,912) (17,115) (35,325) (57,363) (81,085) (60,047) (48,920) (104,708)
BVPS (TWD) 59.590 71.910 76.674 88.579 103.197 142.187 192.365 286.959

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 11.3 22.2 4.4 5.0 31.8 39.2 46.4 61.9
EBITDA (YoY) 2.6 24.4 3.6 16.2 53.8 50.9 57.6 69.9
Operating profit (YoY) (0.2) 32.1 (1.2) 16.4 76.1 66.2 63.9 78.0
Net profit (YoY) 5.1 21.9 2.2 5.5 70.6 74.5 57.6 79.1
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 5.1 21.9 2.2 5.5 70.6 74.5 57.6 79.1
Gross-profit margin 28.7 28.8 29.2 32.4 34.3 36.4 36.6 37.4
EBITDA margin 15.4 15.7 15.6 17.3 20.1 21.8 23.5 24.7
Operating-profit margin 10.0 10.8 10.2 11.3 15.1 18.1 20.2 22.2
Net profit margin 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.4 10.8 13.6 14.6 16.2
ROAE 17.8 19.1 17.3 16.4 24.1 32.9 38.1 47.6
ROAA 7.6 8.3 7.6 7.1 10.3 15.3 20.2 27.7
ROCE 13.8 16.4 14.3 14.8 22.6 31.5 41.5 55.1
ROIC 14.6 17.0 15.7 17.5 27.8 35.5 40.8 53.0
Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Effective tax rate 20.0 19.7 20.1 21.3 22.7 22.4 22.0 21.5
Accounts receivable (days) 79.7 77.1 78.0 75.4 71.4 70.2 68.0 61.4
Current ratio (x) 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.7
Net interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 56.1 53.3 78.2 50.0 51.6 50.1 49.5 47.1
Free cash flow yield 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.1 n.a. 0.9 2.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1971, Delta Electronics has been the global leader in switching power supply solutions since 2002 and DC brushless fans since 2006. Its business covers 3 key areas: power electronics (eg, power supplies, thermal management products and passive components), automation (eg, controllers, robot arms and building management systems), and infrastructure (eg, datacentre infrastructure, networking and EV charging).

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analystcomments
Executive/board quality 1 Delta's board has 7 non-independent and 5 independent directors with a term of three years. The total number of directors and ratio of independent directors appear higher than most other listed companies. Besides, according to Delta's CSR report, enhancing the board's functions is one of the key goals for the company to achieve better corporate governance; also, the board members' diversity and professionalism will be taken into consideration to ensure a good board quality. Moreover, the company evaluates all the directors in the board using internal regulations and an external independent institution each year and at least once every three years, respectively. We believe Delta has implemented relatively more enhanced measure than most listed firms to improve its board quality.
G Capital management 2 During 2016-19, Delta's payout ratio was stable in the range of c.70%, but fell to 56% in 2020 and 53% in 2021. For 2020, it was mainly due to a sizeable non-cash re-valuation gain after the acquisition of Delta Thailand (DET), while the company maintained more cash on hand to deal with the uncertainties caused by COVID-19. However, the DPS growth from 2016 to 2021 was limited, as Delta struggled with business diversification into new end-markets (eg, smartphone, NEV). We believe that Delta's effort started to bear fruit in recent years after its NEV business has gradually picked up. Overall, we see a stable dividend policy from Delta and expect its DPS to continue to grow YoY in the future given that they declared a TWD11.6 DPS for 2025 which equals a 50% payout ratio.
Related party & transaction 1 Revenue from related parties stood at 12% of total 2025 revenue and purchases from related parties were at 11%. We see limited risk from related party transactions.
S Supplychain management 1 Delta focuses on: 1) localised management, 2) supplier certification and risk management, and 3) supplier sustainability engagement as key initiatives under the scope of supply chain management. In 2019, 144 new suppliers joined Delta's supply chain system. All of them passed environmental and social evaluations, signed the declaration of "non-use of conflict materials", and complied with Responsible Business Alliance's (BRA) Code of Conduct. Also, these vendors had to implement and abide by Delta's supply chain CSR policy and code of conduct. To lower ESG risks, Delta carries out RBA audits and monitors high-risk critical suppliers each year. The suppliers that fail these audits have to provide detailed improvement plans in response to identified issues. Besides, Delta has surveyed a total of 263 suppliers with potential risk and 63 suppliers with high risk of the total 1,331 suppliers, based on its CSR policy and code of conduct. If these suppliers are flagged as high-risk and no concrete improvements are made, Delta may consider terminating cooperation and transactions with them to improve the company's engagement on supplier sustainability. Overall, we think Delta has a solid plan to improve its supply chain management with specific KPIs, including: 1) achieving supplier improvement rate of 80% in 2025, 2) reducing GHG emissions rate of critical suppliers by 10% in 2025, and 3) improving water saving rate of critical suppliers by 12% in 2025.
S Datasecurity 2 Delta's Information Security team created Delta's Information Security Policy in November 2013 and started providing educational training to global employees in 2014. Delta gradually introduced the Information Security Management System (ISMS) in 2016 and obtained the ISO 27001 international certification in 2018. According to ISO27001, Delta has to conduct at least one internal audit on information security and appoint an independent institution to conduct audit externally. According to Delta, no major deficiencies have been found in recent years.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 30 Sep 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company