報告_Citi_聯發科2454_20261021

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Prepared for [訂閱者已遮] citi

21 Oct 2026 12:07:38 ET │ 16 pages

Mediatek (2454.TW)

We see a strong 4Q26 and long-term growth ahead

CITI'S TAKE

Market has been skeptical of Mediatek's TPU development and new projects development; we believe its v8 project is on track and its US$2bn and higher revenue for this year will be key catalyst to drive strong 4Q QoQ growth. Along with its price hike in consumer products, we are looking for c30% QoQ 4Q revenue growth and expect OPM upside. Looking ahead into 2027/28 onward, despite EMIB-T uncertainties, thanks to ongoing v8 long life cycle and multiple ASP upside, we see US$18bn/US$40bn AI ASIC revenue contribution. Anticipating a robust earnings trend into next two years, we reiterate our Buy rating on Mediatek.

We see 3Q beat on consumer product pull-in demand - We have highlighted that Mediatek's 3Q revenue should be a beat due to its market share gain, better mix, and pull-in demand ahead of further price hike. Mediatek will host an analyst meeting on Oct 30; we expect an inline 3Q GM/OM (guidance mid-point of 46%/15%), yet we expect a strong 4Q26 outlook thanks to AI ASIC contribution and better mix/pricing for consumer products. On the back of solid operating leverage, we are also looking for OPM upside. We are looking for upbeat 4Q26 guidance and outlook.

Potential v9 production risk on EMIB-T well anticipated, yet upside on v8 and following v10 not factored in - Given the yield-rate challenge and much longer cycle time for EMIB-T, we are not surprised to see any production delayed. However, thanks to stronger v8 momentum into 2028 and multiple ASP upgrade at Mediatek thanks to the Serdes upgrade and N2 process development, we thus see our estimate of US$40bn AI ASIC revenue in 2028 as intact. Other than 224G SerDes in production, its 336G and 448G SerDes are actively under development. While we would not dismiss EMIB-T yield risk for TPU v9, we believe there is great chance that Mediatek will be working on CoWoS/CoPoS for TPU v10, which is aiming for 2029 production. The higher value for v9 and long v8 cycle will be more than enough to compensate for the potential v9 shipment downside, and we believe the order visibility already last into 2029 onward thanks to its v10 engagement.

New customer engagement ongoing, more longer-term potential - On the back of Mediatek's advanced node design capabilities, Serdes development, supply chain management, and business model flexibility, we think Mediatek has great chance to further penetrate into new CSP projects. More importantly, it is one of the few players in the NVLink Fusion ecosystem in front-end design and full process AI ASIC service, and we believe this will lead to more long-term opportunities beyond 2028.

Earnings Summary

Source: Powered by dataCentral

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.

n Buy

Short-Term View: Upside, expires 30-OCT-26

Price (21 Oct 26 13:30)

NT$4,140.00

Target price NT$6,800.00

Expected share price return

64.3%

Expected dividend yield

1.3%

Expected total return

65.5%

Market Cap NT$6,644,504M

US$203,626M

Price Performance (RIC: 2454.TW, BB: 2454 TT)

Laura (Chia Yi) Chen AC

+886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com

Jack Chen +886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com

Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093

nicholas.lai@citi.com Prepared for [訂閱者已遮] Prepared for [訂閱者已遮]

Earnings upward revision on better OPM, robust AI ASIC revenue on track; maintain Buy with TP at NT$6,800

Mediatek will host an analyst meeting on Oct 30; we expect an inline GM/OPM (guidance mid-point of 46%/15%), yet we expect a strong c30% QoQ growth outlook for 4Q26 thanks to AI ASIC contribution and better mix/pricing for consumer products. On the back of solid operating leverage, we are also looking for OPM upside. We are looking for upbeat 4Q26 guidance.

With AI ASIC starts contributing in 4Q26 and multiplying growth into next two years, we expect OPM expansion for Mediatek on the back of its operational leverage. We lift our earnings projection for 2026/2027/28 by 9%/ 25%/9%. We maintain our Buy with TP$6,800 (30x of 2027/28 EPS, from 35x previously, mainly on recent macro concerns and concerns on AI capex beyond 2028).

Figure 1. Mediatek - 3Q26 preview

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg

Figure 2. Mediatek - Estimates Revisions

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research Prepared for [訂閱者已遮] Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg Prepared for [訂閱者已遮] NT$mn

Figure 3. Mediatek - Citi estimates vs. Consensus

Figure 6. Mediatek - Forecast Summary

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research, company data Prepared for [訂閱者已遮]

Bull/Bear: Mediatek (2454.TW)

Spread 85pp

Current Price and expected returns (upside/downside) as of 21 Oct 2026

BULL Assumptions

• Higher than expected AI ASIC development
• Stronger than expected margins expansion
• Bull case TP is based on its peak cycle valuation of 32x PER to 2027/28E EPS

BASE Assumptions

• 2027/28E GM of >44%
• 2027/28E OPM of >16%

BEAR Assumptions

• Lower than AI ASIC development
• Worse than expected margins declines
• Bear case TP is based on 16x PER (the mid-point of its historical valuation) to 2027/28E EPS

Prepared for [訂閱者已遮]

Mediatek

Company description

Mediatek (MTK) is a fabless IC company that designs SoC for smartphone, smart TV, and digital media devices. It also develops chips for connectivity, networking, smart home gadgets, and automotive sectors. It was founded in 1997, is listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, and is headquartered in Taiwan. It has sales and research subsidiaries in mainland China, Singapore, India, the US, Japan, Korea, Denmark, and England. It primarily sells its products in China and other emerging-market countries.

Investment strategy

We rate Mediatek shares as Buy. We expect Mediatek to ride on 5G migration in emerging markets and market share gain of its high-end Dimensity series in China market as well. In particular, we see strong growth potential from its AI ASIC, NTN-satellite business in the long term. We believe solid fundamentals and strong operating leverage will support Mediatek's margins outlook.

Valuation

Our NT$6,800 target price (rounded) for Mediatek is based on 30x P/E to 2027/2028 EPS, which is 1-std above its five-year average forward P/E given the promising outlook from its AI ASIC business starting from 2H26. We believe our target PE is also justified by Mediatek's global and regional peers' trading at an average of c32x PER. AI ASIC development with CSPs should provide more upside from 2027 onwards. We also see Mediatek as well prepared for 6G and 6G+NTN Satellite communication. Despite lukewarm smartphone overall deamand, we expect Mediatek to benefit from 5G migration in emerging markets and its Dimensity series should also gain shares in flagship models. Non-smartphone business is also seeing stabilizing TV and IoT demand with Mediatek outgrowing the overall market on its better technology in WiFi 7 and connectivity.

Risks

Key downside risks that could prevent the shares from reaching our target price include: 1) weaker-than-expected growth from AI ASIC business; 2) more severe competition in the smartphone segment; 3) slower overall demand related to macroeconomic risks, especially for smartphone demand; and 4) further price hikes from foundries.

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Appendix A-1

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-23）