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55KB | 真資料圖（財務） | 聯發科股價與歷次 BofA 目標價（PO）沿革：2024-01 約 NT$1,100 起，2026-09-24 調至 NT$6,200，股價 2026 年大幅跳升至約 NT$4,500-5,400 |
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原始內容
MediaTek
ASIC business expanding into Bytedance; potential high-end mobile gains in '27
Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 6,200 TWD | Price: 4,475 TWD
Bytedance expanding ASIC TAM beyond Google/xAI
Bloomberg reported on October 15 th that Bytedance is close to an agreement to work with Mediatek on the ASIC design and turnkey service support following its collaboration with Broadcom and Qualcomm. This is consistent with our update in September that Mediatek could co-develop an AI inference chipset with Bytedance from 1H27 for tape out in 1H28 and see contribution from production in early '29. Similar to Mediatek and xAI's collaboration, we believe Bytedance would need the support on sourcing components (e.g. HBM and substrate) in addition to wafer manufacturing/packaging, lifting the dollar content vs. Google's TPUs. Assuming 1mn unit demand annually & US$20-25k ASPs including advanced logic dies and HBM, the project could contribute US$20-25bn to Mediatek's sales in '29 (vs. BofA sales expectation on Mediatek of US$82bn in '28 with US$45bn from Google TPUv8/v9 and US$9bn from xAI's 1-2 quarter contribution).
A modest tailwind in mobile as it gains share at Samsung
The mobile chipset builds from Mediatek and Qualcomm in 2H26 are tracking below seasonal in 2H26 as the end demand is impacted by the elevated memory cost. While the market outlook looms into '27 (vs. -25% Android unit demand in '26), we expect Mediatek's mobile business to fare better especially in the high-end segment where it could gain unit share by penetrating into Samsung's flagship smartphones historically dominated by Qualcomm and Samsung's own SoCs. Factoring 30% share in Samsung's high-end mobile shipment of 30-35mn annual units and US$200+ chipset ASPs, it could be ~20% accretive to Mediatek's mobile sales and ~5% of its total business from 2H27.
EPS and valuation downside limited after recent pullback
We maintain our Buy rating & NT$6,200 PO on 24x 2H27-1H28E P/E (implied 30x ASIC EPS + 10x merchant EPS). The share has been dragged by TPU competition concern in the near term but could be lifted by expanding ASIC projects and high-end mobile gains.
| Estimates (Dec) (NT$) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (Adjusted - mn) | 106,387 | 105,319 | 109,179 | 261,785 | 631,678 |
| EPS | 66.84 | 66.17 | 68.59 | 164.47 | 396.85 |
| EPS Change (YoY) | 38.2% | -1.0% | 3.7% | 139.8% | 141.3% |
| Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha) | 68.57 | 142.10 | 287.07 | ||
| Dividend / Share | 53.00 | 53.00 | 55.00 | 132.00 | 317.00 |
| Free Cash Flow / Share | 89.53 | 92.84 | 85.93 | 159.40 | 297.78 |
| Valuation (Dec) | |||||
| P/E | 66.95x | 67.63x | 65.24x | 27.21x | 11.28x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.18% | 1.18% | 1.23% | 2.95% | 7.08% |
| EV / EBITDA* | 56.42x | 55.04x | 52.64x | 21.59x | 9.23x |
| Free Cash Flow Yield* | 1.98% | 2.06% | 1.91% | 3.53% | 6.60% |
| * For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 6. |
This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or other persons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.
>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 7 to 9. Analyst Certification on page 4. Price
15 October 2026
Equity
Haas Liu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3727 haas.liu@bofa.com
Mike Yang >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) mike.c.yang@bofa.com
Cathy Hsu >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) cathy.hsu3@bofa.com
Stock Data
| Price | 4,475 TWD |
|---|---|
| Price Objective | 6,200 TWD |
| Date Established | 24-Sep-2026 |
| Investment Opinion | C-1-7 |
| 52-Week Range | 1,130 TWD-5,480 TWD |
| Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) | 223,698 USD / 1,605.0 |
| Market Value (mn) | 7,182,163 TWD |
| Average Daily Value (mn) | 1,195 USD |
| Free Float | 86.1% |
| BofA Ticker / Exchange | MDTKF / TAI |
| Bloomberg / Reuters | 2454 TT / 2454.TW |
| ROE (2026E) | 26.1% |
| Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) | -59.4% |
ASIC: Application Specific Integrated Circuit
AI: Artificial Intelligence
TAM- Total addressable market
HBM: High Bandwidth Memory
TPU: Tensor Processing Unit
SoC: System on Chip
iQprofile SM MediaTek
| Key Income Statement Data (Dec) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ Millions) | |||||
| Sales | 530,586 | 595,966 | 667,725 | 1,287,745 | 2,476,796 |
| Gross Profit | 263,386 | 283,080 | 303,888 | 560,024 | 1,041,787 |
| Sell General & Admin Expense | (28,981) | (31,304) | (33,776) | (46,012) | (55,702) |
| Operating Profit | 102,412 | 103,470 | 105,313 | 289,855 | 714,726 |
| Net Interest & Other Income | 16,590 | 20,633 | 21,467 | 15,763 | 23,204 |
| Associates | 517 | 785 | 266 | 0 | 0 |
| Pretax Income | 119,519 | 124,888 | 127,046 | 305,619 | 737,930 |
| Tax (expense) / Benefit | (12,378) | (18,770) | (16,942) | (42,920) | (105,342) |
| Net Income (Adjusted) | 106,387 | 105,319 | 109,179 | 261,785 | 631,678 |
| Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,592 | 1,592 | 1,592 | 1,592 | 1,592 |
| Key Cash Flow Statement Data | |||||
| Net Income | 106,387 | 105,319 | 109,179 | 261,785 | 631,678 |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 20,936 | 22,974 | 26,903 | 32,453 | 39,005 |
| Change in Working Capital | (2,076) | (18,295) | 202 | (73,654) | (150,492) |
| Deferred Taxation Charge | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Other Adjustments, Net | 30,808 | 52,794 | 21,569 | 56,114 | (21,063) |
| Cash Flow from Operations | 156,055 | 162,793 | 157,853 | 276,698 | 499,127 |
| Capital Expenditure | (13,771) | (15,009) | (20,986) | (22,820) | (24,853) |
| (Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments | (14,671) | (9,972) | 3,770 | (205) | (13) |
| Other Cash Inflow / (Outflow) | (7,486) | (12,773) | (32,224) | (46,870) | (57,272) |
| Cash Flow from Investing | (35,928) | (37,754) | (49,440) | (69,895) | (82,137) |
| Shares Issue / (Repurchase) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cost of Dividends Paid | (87,551) | (86,070) | (85,583) | (88,215) | (210,111) |
| Cash Flow from Financing Flow | (90,119) | (87,675) | (71,347) | (90,187) | (212,070) |
| Free Cash | 142,284 | 147,784 | 136,867 | 253,878 | 474,275 |
| Net Debt | (210,705) | (243,168) | (254,022) | (370,751) | (575,678) |
| Change in Net Debt | (39,560) | (31,534) | (22,794) | (116,616) | (204,920) |
| Key Balance Sheet Data | |||||
| Property, Plant & Equipment | 56,917 | 60,427 | 69,112 | 75,390 | 82,205 |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 289,925 | 285,901 | 322,568 | 359,336 | 405,461 |
| Trade Receivables | 44,713 | 62,121 | 78,813 | 118,936 | 242,811 |
| Cash & Equivalents | 219,624 | 247,709 | 283,493 | 400,222 | 605,148 |
| Other Current Assets | 86,688 | 87,626 | 90,208 | 152,106 | 279,672 |
| Total Assets | 697,868 | 743,785 | 844,194 | 1,105,990 | 1,615,297 |
| Long-Term Debt | 0 | 60 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 25,910 | 31,180 | 34,299 | 34,278 | 34,277 |
| Short-Term Debt | 8,919 | 4,481 | 29,351 | 29,351 | 29,351 |
| Other Current Liabilities | 257,983 | 298,869 | 335,961 | 381,034 | 372,697 |
| Total Liabilities | 292,812 | 334,590 | 399,731 | 444,783 | 436,445 |
| Total Equity | 405,055 | 409,195 | 444,463 | 661,207 | 1,178,852 |
| Total Equity & Liabilities | 697,868 | 743,785 | 844,194 | 1,105,990 | 1,615,297 |
| iQmethod SM - Bus Performance* | |||||
| Return On Capital Employed | 23.9% | 22.0% | 21.2% | 42.2% | 64.0% |
| Return On Equity | 27.8% | 26.4% | 26.1% | 48.1% | 69.3% |
| Operating Margin | 19.3% | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.5% | 28.9% |
| EBITDA Margin | 23.2% | 21.2% | 19.8% | 25.0% | 30.4% |
| iQmethod SM - Quality of Earnings* | |||||
| Cash Realization Ratio | 1.5x | 1.5x | 1.4x | 1.1x | 0.8x |
| Asset Replacement Ratio | 1.1x | 1.1x | 1.4x | 1.4x | 1.4x |
| Tax Rate (Reported) | 10.4% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 14.3% |
| Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio | -52.0% | -59.4% | -57.2% | -56.1% | -48.8% |
| Interest Cover | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
Key Metrics
- For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 6.
Company Sector
Semiconductors
Company Description
MediaTek is a fabless IC design company supplying to wireless communications and digital consumer markets. Before taking leadership in mobile SoC area, it had built solid ground in the TV SoC and optical disk drive markets. The firm invests heavily in R&D to seek better positioning in the 5G cycle, and has a complete offering including ASIC, Wi-Fi, PMIC etc. to address applications beyond smartphone, such as IoT and auto.
Investment Rationale
We have Buy rating on MediaTek as we think MediaTek is ready and has the strength to brace for the upcoming proliferation of IoT devices and opportunities in growing markets like ASIC, ARM-based PC, auto, and etc., and we believe its solid balance sheet and cashflow could provide downside support to the share price. Meanwhile, we expect 5G smartphone penetration to be a multi-year theme for the company, with its better competitive landscape in duopoly 5G era and an improved margin profile.
Stock Data
Price to Book Value
16.5x
lül
Focus charts and tables
Exhibit 1: Mediatek P&L analysis from 2026-28
We estimate Mediatek's ASIC business including TPUs and xAI's accelerator project to be the key growth driver in 2028
| Mediatek business analysis | TPUv8t | Merchant | Mediatek '26 | TPUv8t | Merchant | Mediatek '27 | TPUv8t | TPUv9t | xAI | Merchant | Mediatek '28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASIC demand (mn units) ASIC ASP (US$000) | 0.5 $4.6 | 4.2 $4.6 | 1.9 $4.6 | 3.1 $11.5 | 0.9 $9.0 | ||||||
| Sales (US$bn) | $2.1 | $19.1 | $21.2 | $19.2 | $21.7 | $40.9 | $8.7 | $36.2 | $8.5 | $25.3 | $78.6 |
| Gross profit | $0.9 | $8.8 | $9.6 | $8.1 | $9.7 | $17.8 | $3.7 | $14.8 | $3.7 | $10.9 | $33.1 |
| GMs | 42% | 46% | 46% | 42% | 45% | 43% | 42% | 41% | 43% | 43% | 42% |
| Opex | $0.8 | $5.5 | $6.3 | $3.3 | $5.3 | $8.6 | $0.3 | $3.3 | $0.9 | $5.9 | $10.4 |
| Opex/sales | 39% | 29% | 30% | 17% | 24% | 21% | 3% | 9% | 11% | 23% | 13% |
| Operating profit | $0.1 | $3.3 | $3.3 | $4.8 | $4.4 | $9.2 | $3.4 | $11.6 | $2.7 | $5.0 | $22.7 |
| OpMs | 3% | 17% | 16% | 25% | 20% | 23% | 39% | 32% | 32% | 20% | 29% |
| Tax rate | 13% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| Net profit (US$bn) | $0.1 | $2.8 | $3.5 | $4.1 | $3.8 | $8.3 | $2.9 | $9.9 | $2.3 | $4.3 | $20.1 |
| EPS (NT$) | $1.1 | $56.2 | $69.1 | $81.5 | $75.0 | $164.9 | $57.7 | $196.2 | $46.1 | $85.0 | $397.2 |
Source: BofA Global Research estimates BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Price objective basis & risk
MediaTek (MDTKF)
Our PO of NT$6,200 is based on 24x 2H27-1H28 P/E. which is towards the higher end of its historical P/E range of 8-25x, as we believe the company's broadening ASIC pipeline could drive an earnings upgrade cycle.
Upside risks to our PO are: (1) better than expected smartphone demand, especially in China, (2) a better pricing in mobile communication segment thanks to alleviated competition and rising exposure to high-end/flagship market, and (3) an even more superior investment return on non-op side to uplift its net cash position. (4) Unexpected collaboration with global technology leaders leads to higher than expected margins/profits
Downside risks to our PO are: (1) weaker-than-expected end-market situation in consumer-related smartphone/TV space, (2) macro challenges including inflation/policyrelated pressures, (3) rising competition from existing players and/or newcomers in smartphone/TV SoC (system on chip) space, and (4) ASP/margin pressure caused by each or all of the above and/or rising foundry costs. (4) Bidding process for Meta Inference ASIC is slower than expected.