報告_廣發香港_日月光投控3711_20261020

PDF 原檔：報告_廣發香港_日月光投控3711_20261020_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-21）

ingest 時建立的「眼見為憑」圖片索引，是 lib/ 嵌圖的唯一真相來源；嵌入時只從這裡挑分類為「真資料圖」的。本報告三張圖皆為財務／產能／估值圖，依規則不嵌 lib。

原始內容

ASE Holdings (3711 TT)

Dual Tailwinds from Pricing and LEAP

C Progress Intact, with >$170 Annualized EPS Potential Lift TP to NT$843: Despite broader market softness, we remain positive on ASE, as packaging emerges as a key bottleneck across AI and non-AI applications. Our supply chain research indicates severe packaging constraints and price hikes among leading analog players. Meanwhile, LEAP demand across GPUs, CPUs and ASICs continues to accelerate, supported by AMD's full-process packaging business, pricing gains and slower-than-expected competitor capacity expansion. We expect LEAP's ATM revenue contribution to rise from 23% in 2026 to 32% in 2027, driving margin expansion despite higher capex. Factoring in stronger ASPs, LEAP growth and our earnings preview, we raise 2026E/2027E EPS by 6%/12% and lift our TP from NT$754 to NT$843, based on 25x 2027E EPS.

Packaging supply tightness broadens: Our supply chain research suggests that packaging has emerged as a critical bottleneck, extending beyond AI GPUs into mature-node applications, including analog, with lead times lengthening by >30% and unfilled orders rising. Advanced packaging and testing pricing should also remain aggressive, driven by AI demand and longer testing times. According to an Oct 13 EDN report, OSAT prices have risen 10-30% amid tightening supply, reinforcing our expectations of 10-80% price hikes for FC/Wirebond/QFN and 10-20% for CoWoS in 3Q26-4Q26.

LEAP on AMD's higher wafer allocation, limited competition, etc: We believe AMD's server CPU roadmap to accelerate, by full adoption of CoWoS for Venice and beyond including the recently announced Verano. Additionally, our supply chain research suggests increased wafer supply for AMD's CPU in 2Q-4Q27, due to Intel's shift from TSMC's 2nm to its own 18A. Additionally, we believe another OSAT CoWoS supplier's expansion is slower than expected, likely the U.S. expansion in 2028. Together with increasing demand from TSMC for CP and oS, we forecast its LEAP to be $4bn/$8bn in 2026E/2027E, vs. guidance of $3.6bn/$7.2bn.

Earnings preview: 3Q26 sales rose 28% QoQ on IC ATM of +20% QoQ and EMS of +42% QoQ. We expect GM to be at the high end of guidance and EPS of $5.3 in 3Q26. For 4Q26, we expect IC ATM sales to be +9% QoQ and EMS to be -5% QoQ; with price hikes and higher mix of LEAP, we expect GM to be 23% in 4Q26.

Risks: 1) AI slowdown; 2) consumer demand; 3) peer competition; 4) capacity delay.

Profit forecast

Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.

Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.

数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心

Maintained Buy

Target price NT$ 843

Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk

Henry Huang

SFC CE No. BYA749 henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk

Earnings Forecast

Figure 1: ASE's LEAP revenue (USD bn)

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 2: ASE/SPIL, Amkor CoWoS Capacity Forecast (kwpm)

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Earnings Revision

Factoring in stronger ASPs, LEAP growth and our earnings preview, we raise 2026E/2027E EPS by 6%/12%.

Figure 3: Earnings revision

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 4: ASE's P&L forecast

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Valuation and Recommendation

Maintain Buy with TP of NT$843

We rate ASE (3711 TT) Buy and set our TP at NT$843 which is based on 25x our 2027E EPS. We adopt 2027 as valuation basis to capture its robust LEAP business potential which is the key market focus and is expected to see aggressive capacity expansion. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market now mainly focuses on the company's earnings outlook.

The ASE/SPIL is the highest-quality OSAT and NO.1 in market share worldwide, backed by superior operational management, M&As, economies of scale, and customer/product diversification. We like ASE as we view it as an AI beneficiary with increasing margin-accretive AI/LEAP business in 2026 and beyond. We believe the business will be driven by oS and CP in 2026, with emerging driver of full process business ramping in 2H26.

ASE's P/E traded at an average of 14x since 2021 but was up to an average of 19x since 1Q24 when the company meaningfully started AI business. We derive our target price based on 25x P/E, which is meaningfully higher than the mid-cycle level given its fast-growing AI momentum.

Figure 5: ASE's 12-month forward P/E

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Risks

1) AI slowdown; 2) consumer demand; 3) peer competition; 4) capacity delay.

NTD mn Cash Flow Statement

513,648 Operating cash flow

48,058 Others

112,854 Others

241,504 Others

889,333 1,187,762 1,602,911 1,979,894 Key Financial Ratios

48,969 Gross debt/equity

193,198 Quick Ratio

Rating definitions Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)

Company ratings Buy

Hold Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%

Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Underperform Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Sector ratings Positive

Neutral Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%

Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Cautious Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Hong Kong Company

Address GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited

27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong

Telephone

(852) 37191111

Email evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk

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