Stock LLM Wiki

報告_廣發香港_NVIDIA_F2Q_review_20260827

更新 2026-08-30
#來源/券商報告#公司/NVIDIA#產業/AI伺服器#技術/CoWoS

PDF 原檔：報告_廣發香港_NVIDIA_F2Q_review_20260827_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-30）

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_廣發香港_NVIDIA_F2Q_review_20260827_001.png 58KB 真資料圖 NVIDIA 12 個月遠期本益比折線圖，橫軸 Feb-18～Feb-26，兩條水平線標 Avg. = 30x 與 Avg. from 4Q22 = 28x；2022 年初高點逾 80x

未讀（<40KB 或同組抽樣）：（無其他 ≥40KB 圖）

原始內容

Nvidia (NVDA US)

Massive FY28 Guide Underscore Value and Positioning

Maintain TP at $345: Nvidia stock rose 4% during dafter -hours on robust prints, ~70% FY28 YoY guide (100% unconstrained), increasing revenue/GW and clarity (a bit) the $500bn financing framework, offsetting softer margin outlook. The earnings call underscored Nvidia's: 1) full -stack AI platform, with Vera Rubin's $40bn/GW value vs. Blackwell's $25bn; 2) neutral positioning for fast -growing neoclouds who need full solutions; 3) supply chain; 4) dual tailwinds from closed and open models, the latter a bigger driver; and 5) GPU which is fungible. Moreover, product -cycle stays constructive for Vera Rubin, driven by share gains vs. ASICs and neocloud build-out, with portfolio spans LPX, CPU, and networking including the better ramp of CPO Spectrum -X. A good problem to have remain the supply bottlenecks across memory, wafer fabrication, plus LPS (land -power -shell). Incorporating results and guidance, we revise FY27E/FY28E EPS by -1%/+3% and keep TP at $345.

Earnings call a positive driven by FY28 guide: F2Q revenue reached $96.2bn (+18% QoQ, +106% YoY), vs. GF $94.5bn, Bloomberg $92.3bn and buy -side $94.6bn; data -center revenue was $89bn, gross margin 75%, and EPS $2.22 were all higher than consensus. F3Q guidance of $108bn matched our preview of $108bn and topped Bloomberg $104bn, buyside $106-108bn, but gross margin of 74% trailed expectations due to memory cost (F4Q to 71 -72%, recovering to 72 -73% in FY28). More importantly, FY28 revenue is guided to be up approximately 70% YoY considering supply -constrained, vs. 100% customer -implied demand, both of which are major positive surprises during the call.

From Blackwell to Rubin's $40bn/GW amid tailwinds and execution: Mgmt indicated that Rubin platform to reach $40bn/GW, vs. Blackwell's $25bn/GW, driven by its full stack platform including Vera Rubin, Vera, LPX, networking, etc. For Rubin Ultra, despite a likely downgrade in HBM (see our AI Platform Value Shift on Aug 6 ), we expect NPO/CPO-connected NVL576 to be mainstream form factor, likely further boost the revenue/GW and widen the gap driven by scale-up domain. For industry trends, we believe the AI demand is real (while market waits for new demand drivers other than coding), AI buildout is transformative, and continue to expect the robust growth of Neocloud and open models to serve as tailwinds for Nvidia. In additionally, mgmt's comments of winning 2m GPUs at AWS reaffirmed our view of Nvidia's share gains, vs. ASICs such as TPU and Trainium. For numbers, we revised Nvidia's 2027 CoWoS forecast to 1.08m from 1.05m.

Risks: 1) geo-risk; 2) capex slowdown; 3) scaling slowdown; 4) product delay.

Profit forecast

FY2025 FY2026 FY2027E FY2028E FY2029E
Revenue (m) 130,497 215,938 410,878 712,069 910,443
Revenue YoY ( % ) 114.2 65.5 90.3 73.3 27.9
Net profit (m) 74,265 116,996 225,270 386,097 497,049
Net profit YoY ( % ) 129.8 57.5 92.5 71.4 28.7
EPS ($) 3.0 4.8 9.3 15.9 20.4
P/E 70.0 44.1 22.6 13.2 10.3
ROE ( % ) 93.6 74.4 81.2 75.0 62.4

Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.

Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.

数据来源：公司

财务报

发证

表，广

券

发

展研究中心

Maintained

Buy

Target price

$345

Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk

Henry Huang SFC CE No. BYA749 henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk

Earnings Forecast

F2Q results better than expected

F2Q results (July-qtr) came in modestly ahead of expectations. Total revenue reached $96.2bn (+18% QoQ, +106% YoY), versus GF's $94.5bn, Bloomberg consensus $92.3bn and buy -side estimates of $94.6bn; data -center revenue hit $89bn wit networking growing strongly at 18% QoQ, gross margin stood at 75% (GF:75.1%, Bloomberg:75%), and EPS printed at $2.22 (GF:$2.15, Bloomberg:$2.09, buy -side:$2.18).

F3Q guidance of $108bn inline with our forecast and slightly above expectations, while gross margin to trend down on memory cost

F3Q revenue guidance of $108bn ± 2% matched our forecast of $108bn and topped street consensus (Bloomberg:$104bn, buy -side:$106-108bn), while guided gross margin of 73.5 -74.5% trailed market expectations (GF:75.1%, Bloomberg:74.8%); Vera Rubin has started shipping and is expected to contribute ~20% of data -center revenue in F3Q. Driven by higher -than -anticipated memory costs, management guided F4Q gross margin of 71 -72%, with a recovery toward 72 -73% for FY28 supported by price hikes effective F1Q28.

More importantly, FY28 revenue is guided for 70% YoY, a supply -constrained figure versus underlying customer -implied demand of 100% YoY expansion.

Figure 1: Nvidia's F2Q results review

USD mn F2Q27 F1Q27 QoQ F2Q26 YoY GFHK Diff Consensus Diff
Sales 96,221 81,615 17.9% 46,743 105.9% 94,481 1.8% 92,376 4.2%
Gross Profit 72,188 61,211 17.9% 33,960 112.6% 70,942 1.8% 69,326 4.1%
OPEX 8,232 7,449 10.5% 3,795 116.9% 8,300 -0.8% 8,141 1.1%
Operating Profit 63,956 53,783 18.9% 30,165 112.0% 62,642 2.1% 61,185 4.5%
Pretax Profit 64,256 54,240 18.5% 30,685 109.4% 63,124 1.8% 61,695 4.2%
Net Income 53,954 45,548 18.5% 25,783 109.3% 52,393 3.0% 51,052 5.7%
EPS (US$) 2.22 1.87 18.7% 1.05 111.4% 2.15 3.3% 2.09 6.2%
ppts ppts ppts ppts
GM 75.0% 75.0% 0.0 72.7% 2.3 75.1% -0.1 75.0% 0.0
OPM 66.5% 65.9% 0.6 64.5% 2.0 66.3% 0.2 66.2% 0.3
Pretax Margin 66.8% 66.5% 0.3 65.6% 1.2 66.8% 0.0 66.8% 0.0
Net Margin 56.1% 55.8% 0.3 55.2% 0.9 55.5% 0.6 55.3% 0.8

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 2: Nvidia Roadmap

H200 B200 B300 Rubin LP30 Rubin Ultra
Launch/MP 2Q24 4Q24 3Q25 3Q26 3Q26 2H27
Architecture Single 2-die 2-die 2-die + 2xI/O Single 2-die + 2x I/O
Front-end node N4P N4P N4P N3P Samsung N4 N3P
Back-end process CoWoS-S CoWoS-L CoWoS-L CoWoS-L CoWoS-L
Transistor (bn) Interconnect 80 NVLink 900GB/s 208 NVLink 1,800 GB/s 208 NVLink 1,800 GB/s NVLink 3,600 GB/s NVLink 3,600 GB/s
Memory (GB) 141GB HBM3E 192GB HBM3E 288GB HBM3E 12hi x 8 288GB HBM4 12hi x 8 500MB
Memory Bandwidth (TB/s) 4.8 8 8 22 150
TDP Networking 700W 400Gb CX7 1000W 400Gb CX7 1000W 800Gb CX8 2,300W Dual-800Gb CX9 1,600Gb CX10

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 3: Rubin Ultra's current likely HBM spec

HBM4 HBM4E
8 Hi 192GB 256GB
12 Hi 288GB 384GB

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Earnings revision

Incorporating results and guidance, we revise FY27E/FY28E EPS by -1%/+3%.

Figure 4: Earnings revision

USDm FY2026 FY2027E FY2027E FY2028E FY2028E Change (%) Change (%)
USDm FY2026 Old New Old New FY27E FY28E
Net sales 215,938 408,811 410,878 676,478 712,069 1% 5%
Gross profit 153,994 306,887 303,247 507,065 519,132 -1% 2%
Operating profit 137,299 271,138 268,666 452,065 463,632 -1% 3%
Pre-tax Income 139,460 273,041 270,023 454,353 465,177 -1% 2%
Net profit 116,996 227,153 225,270 377,113 386,097 -1% 2%
EPS ($) 4.77 9.31 9.27 15.46 15.88 -1% 3%
Key ratios (%)
Gross margin 71.3% 75.1% 73.8% 75.0% 72.9%
Operating margin 63.6% 66.3% 65.4% 66.8% 65.1%
Pre-tax margin 64.6% 66.8% 65.7% 67.2% 65.3%
Net profit margin 54.2% 55.6% 54.8% 55.7% 54.2%

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 5: Nvidia's P&L forecast

(USD m) FY26 F1Q27 F2Q27 F3Q27E F4Q27E FY27E F1Q28E F2Q28E F3Q28E F4Q28E FY28E
Sales 215,938 81,615 96,221 110,981 122,060 410,878 141,425 159,573 189,036 222,035 712,069
COGS 61,944 20,383 24,033 28,885 34,329 107,631 39,239 43,597 50,860 59,241 192,938
Gross profit 153,994 61,232 72,188 82,096 87,731 303,247 102,187 115,975 138,176 162,793 519,132
Opex 16,695 7,449 8,232 9,000 9,900 34,581 11,500 12,700 14,600 16,700 55,500
Operating profit 137,299 53,783 63,956 73,096 77,831 268,666 90,687 103,275 123,576 146,093 463,632
Non-operating profit 2,161 457 300 300 300 1,357 386 386 386 386 1,545
Pre-tax profit 139,460 54,240 64,256 73,396 78,131 270,023 91,073 103,662 123,962 146,480 465,177
Income tax 22,464 8,692 10,302 12,477 13,282 44,754 15,482 17,622 21,074 24,902 79,080
Non-GAAP Net Income 116,996 45,548 53,954 60,919 64,849 225,270 75,591 86,039 102,889 121,578 386,097
Non-GAAP EPS ($) 4.77 1.87 2.22 2.51 2.67 9.27 3.11 3.54 4.23 5.00 15.88
Diluted shares 24,527 24,391 24,285 24,285 24,285 24,312 24,312 24,312 24,312 24,312 24,312
Margin analysis
Gross margin 71.3% 75.0% 75.0% 74.0% 71.9% 73.8% 72.3% 72.7% 73.1% 73.3% 72.9%
Operating margin 63.6% 65.9% 66.5% 65.9% 63.8% 65.4% 64.1% 64.7% 65.4% 65.8% 65.1%
Pre-tax margin 64.6% 66.5% 66.8% 66.1% 64.0% 65.7% 64.4% 65.0% 65.6% 66.0% 65.3%
Effective tax rate 16.1% 16.0% 16.0% 17.0% 17.0% 16.6% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
Growth (% YoY)
Sales 65% 85% 106% 95% 79% 90% 73% 66% 70% 82% 73%
Operating profit 58% 131% 112% 94% 69% 96% 69% 61% 69% 88% 73%
Net income 58% 129% 109% 92% 64% 93% 66% 59% 69% 87% 71%
EPS 59% 131% 111% 93% 65% 94% 67% 59% 69% 87% 71%
Product mix (%)
Data Center 90% 92% 93% 94% 95% 94% 95% 95% 96% 97% 96%
Gaming 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2%
Professional Visualization 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Auto 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
OEM & Other 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Valuation and Recommendation

Maintain Buy with TP of $345

We rate Nvidia (NVDA US) Buy and set our TP to $345, which is based on 28x our FY27E/FY28E (average of CY2026 and CY2027) EPS estimate. Our price target implies a 22x our FY28E (~CY2027) non-GAAP EPS estimate.

We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market will be mainly focused on the company's earnings outlook, and we usually apply P/E method to fabless firms.

Our target multiple is 10% lower than its mid-cycle level of 30x since 2018 but inline with its mid-cycle of 28x since 4Q22 when the AI cycle started. We believe the ongoing AI/Gen AI trends and its platform leadership represent vast growth opportunities including CSPs, enterprise, industrial, Sovereign AI, etc.

Figure 6: Nvidia's 12-month forward P/E

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Risks

1) geo-risk; 2) capex slowdown; 3) scaling slowdown; 4) product delay.

Balance Sheet [Table_FinanceDetail] [Table_FinanceDetail] [Table_FinanceDetail] [Table_FinanceDetail] USD mn
As of Jan 31 FY25 FY26 FY27E FY28E FY29E
Current assets 80,126 125,605 178,349 276,841 366,899
Cash and cash equivalents 43,210 62,556 61,918 72,846 107,856
Inventory 10,080 21,403 37,189 66,664 83,454
Accounts Receivable 23,065 38,466 73,191 126,844 162,181
Other current assets 3,771 3,180 6,051 10,486 13,408
Non-current assets 31,475 81,198 226,733 428,421 604,811
Long-term equity investment - - 75,000 172,500 279,750
Fixed assets 6,283 10,383 16,989 22,404 26,489
Other long-term assets 25,192 70,815 134,744 233,517 298,572
Total assets 111,601 206,803 405,082 705,262 971,709
Current liabilities 18,047 32,163 69,667 116,914 135,639
Accounts Payable 6,310 9,812 17,049 30,562 38,259
Short-term borrowings - 999 11,990 15,943 7,356
Other current liabilities 11,737 21,352 40,628 70,410 90,025
Non-current liabilities 14,227 17,347 57,840 73,651 39,301
Long-term Debt 8,463 7,469 47,962 63,773 29,423
Other non-current liabilities 5,764 9,878 9,878 9,878 9,878
Total liabilities 32,274 49,510 127,507 190,566 174,940
Total Equity 79,327 157,293 277,575 514,696 796,769
Share Capital - - - - -
Additional Paid-in Capital 11,261 10,142 -5,861 -21,864 -37,868
Retained earnings 68,066 147,151 283,436 536,560 834,637
Minority interests - - - - -
Total Liabilities & Equity 111,601 206,803 405,082 705,262 971,709
Income Statement USD mn
As of Jan 31 FY25 FY26 FY27E FY28E FY29E
Revenue 130,497 215,938 410,878 712,069 910,443
Cost of sales 31,992 61,944 107,631 192,938 241,530
Gross profit 98,505 153,994 303,247 519,132 668,913
Operating Expense 11,716 16,695 34,581 55,500 72,000
Operating profit 86,789 137,299 268,666 463,632 596,913
Interest Income 1,786 2,300 2,300 2,645 3,042
Interest Expense 247 259 208 208 208
Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) 3 119 2,420 -735 -892
Pre-tax profit 88,336 139,460 270,023 465,177 598,854
Income tax 14,071 22,464 44,754 79,080 101,805
Profit for the year 74,265 116,996 225,270 386,097 497,049
Minority interest - - - - 1
Net profit to ord. equity 74,265 116,996 225,270 386,097 497,048
EPS ($) 3.0 4.8 9.3 15.9 20.4
Cash Flow Statement USD mn
As of Jan 31 FY25 FY26 FY27E FY28E FY29E
Operating cash flow 64,089 105,018 201,794 346,413 475,228
Profit for the year 74,265 116,996 225,270 386,097 497,049
Depreciation & amortization 1,864 2,843 3,394 4,585 5,915
Change in working capital - - -26,869 -44,269 -27,736
Others -12,040 -14,821 - - -
Investing cash flow -20,421 -52,228 -148,929 -206,273 -182,305
Capex -4,233 -6,943 -10,000 -10,000 -10,000
Change in investment - - -75,000 -97,500 -107,250
Others -16,188 -45,285 -63,929 -98,773 -65,055
Free cash flow 43,668 52,790 52,865 140,140 292,924
Financing cash flow -42,359 -48,474 -53,503 -129,211 -257,914
Change in Capital -37,916 -39,031 -104,988 -148,976 -214,976
Net Change in Debt -1,246 5 51,484 19,764 -42,938
Others -3,197 -9,448 - - -
Exchange influence - - - - -
Net increase in cash 1,309 4,316 -638 10,928 35,010
Key Financial Ratios Key Financial Ratios Key Financial Ratios Key Financial Ratios Key Financial Ratios Key Financial Ratios
As of Jan 31 FY25 FY26 FY27E FY28E FY29E
Growth (%)
Revenue growth 114.2 65.5 90.3 73.3 27.9
Operating profit growth 133.7 58.2 95.7 72.6 28.7
Net profit growth 129.8 60.6 88.8 71.4 28.7
Profitability (%)
Gross profit margin 75.5 71.3 73.8 72.9 73.5
Operating Profit Margin 66.5 63.6 65.4 65.1 65.6
Net profit margin 56.9 55.2 54.8 54.2 54.6
Key Ratio (%)
ROA 83.8 74.9 73.6 69.5 59.3
ROE 93.6 74.4 81.2 75.0 62.4
Stability
Gross debt/equity 10.7 5.4 21.6 15.5 4.6
Interest Coverage 358.6 548.3 1299.2 2237.4 2880.1
Current Ratio 4.4 3.9 2.6 2.4 2.7
Quick Ratio 3.9 3.2 2.0 1.8 2.1
Net debt/equity Net cash Net cash Net cash 1.3 Net cash

Rating definitions Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)

Company ratings Buy

Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %

Hold

Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10 % and 10 %

Underperform

Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10 %

Sector ratings Positive

Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%

Neutral

Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Cautious

Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Hong Kong Company

GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited

Address

27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong

Telephone

(852) 37191111

Email

evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk

Disclaimer

This report has been prepared by GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited ('GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage'). According to the laws, regulations and regulatory requirements in different countries and regions, this report is distributed by GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage with relevant legal and compliant operation qualifications in these countries and regions.

GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong ('SFC') to conduct Type 4 Regulated Activity 'Advising on Securities'. It is regulated by the SFC, and is responsible for the distribution of this report in Hong Kong. Information about the qualifications of the research analyst(s) who is(are) the author(s) of this report as licensed by the SFC are disclosed in the section where research analyst names are shown.

The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the company or relevant securities that the analyst(s) covered in this report: 1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views on the company or relevant securities mentioned herein; and 2) no part of his or her remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, in connection with his or her specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

This report is published solely for information purpose and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities or a solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities.

The securities mentioned in this report may not be allowed to be sold in certain jurisdictions. No action has been taken to permit the distribution of the research report to any person in any jurisdiction that the circulation or distribution of such research report is unlawful. This report is distributed solely to clients or designated institutions authorized by GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage, and is not distributed publicly. It is distributed to certain clients based on the conclusion that they are able to assess investment risks independently, execute investment decisions independently and assume corresponding risks independently.

This report has been issued and based on information obtained from sources generally available to the public and believed by the research analyst(s) to be reliable but which has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is made by GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage as to their accuracy and completeness of the information contained in this report. GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage accepts no liability for all loss arising from the use of the materials presented in this report, unless is excluded by applicable laws or regulations. Please be aware of the fact that investments involve risks and the price of securities may be fluctuated and therefore return may be varied, past results do not guarantee future performance. Any recommendation contained in this report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any individuals. This report is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by respective recipients of this report, where necessary, recipients should obtain professional advice before making investment decisions.

GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in the research report. The points of view, opinions and analytical methods adopted in the research report are solely expressed by the analysts but not that of GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage or its affiliates. The information, opinions and forecasts presented in the research report are the current opinions of the analysts as of the date appearing on this material only which may subject to change at any time without notice. The salesperson, dealer or other professionals of GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage may deliver opposite points of view to their clients and the proprietary trading division with respect to market commentary or dealing strategy either in writing or verbally. The proprietary trading division of GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage may have different investment decision which may be contrary to the opinions expressed in the research report. GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage or its affiliates or respective directors, officers, analysts and employees related to research report business may have rights and interests in securities mentioned in the research report. Recipients should be aware of relevant disclosure of interest (if any) when reading this report.

GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage and its affiliates may be seeking or building business relationships with company(ies) mentioned in this report. Therefore, investors should consider the impact on the independence of this report by GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage and its affiliates due to potential conflicts of interests. Investors should not make any investment decisions based solely on the contents of this report. Investors should make their own investment decisions and bear their own risk. No written or verbal commitment of sharing gains or losses from securities investments in any form shall be effective.

This report may contain and/or describe/present factual historical information on prices of Futures contracts (the 'information'). Please note that this information is solely for the purpose of forming part of the argument/grounds/evidence in our research methodology/analysis to support our conclusion on our view of the relevant industry/company mentioned. It does not, by any means (express or implied) to be associated with or constituted as SFC Type 5 Regulated Activity (Advising on futures contracts).

Disclosure of Interests

  • 1) The research analyst(s) and his/her associate has not served as an officer of the company(ies) mentioned in this report, and does not have any financial interests in the company(ies) mentioned in this report.
  • 2) GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage and/or its affiliates does not have any financial interests and has not invested in interests aggregate to an amount equal to or more than (i) 1 % of the market capitalization; or (ii) 1 % of the issued share capital, or issued units, in the company(ies) mentioned in this report.
  • 3) GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage and/or its affiliates does not have any market making activities, and has not employed any individual(s) serving as officer(s) of the company(ies) mentioned in this report.
  • 4) GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage and/or its affiliates does not have any investment banking relationship in Hong Kong with the company(ies) mentioned in this report in the past 12 months.

Copyright © GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Without the prior written consent obtained from GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage, any part of the materials contained herein should not (i) in any forms be copied or reproduced or (ii) be re-disseminated.

被誰引用

相關公司
NVDA.US