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原始內容
Marvell (MRVL US)
Inline Quarter; Eyes on Investor Day
Retain Buy and TP of $290: Marvell's F2Q results were largely inline, while elevated expectations into the print sent shares down 7.8% after hours. F2Q revenue of $2.74bn, +13% QoQ/+37% YoY vs Cons of $2.7bn, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.94, +18% QoQ/+40% YoY vs Cons of $0.93. For F3Q, management guided revenue of $3.15bn, implying +15% QoQ/+50% YoY, with GM to decline QoQ purely driven by mix as custom ASIC ramps. Management expects margin to remain within F3Q range through F4Q, with operating leverage expected to push non -GAAP OPM toward the 38% -40% target. Longer-term, the CEO raised FY27E revenue outlook to ~$12bn (from $11.5bn) and FY28E revenue outlook to ~$18bn (from $16.5bn), driven by robust data center outlook. We revise our EPS by +7%/+3% in FY27E/FY28E. Retain Buy rating and TP of $290, still based on 20x FY29E EPS.
Maintain ~$10bn AI ASIC revenue in FY29E, yet We expect $16bn+: Marvell's custom silicon business is set for explosive expansion, with management guiding >100% YoY growth for in FY28E. Google's multi -year framework agreement spans multiple product lines including inference accelerators, storage controllers, NICs, CXL memory interfaces and near -memory compute. Only a modest portion of related revenue will be recognized in FY28E, while material volume ramp -up is expected in FY29 and beyond, serving as a key upside driver for $10B+ FY29E target. Mgmt. also mentioned another large hyperscaler XPU project is making solid progress and constitutes a major contributor to FY28E custom silicon growth.
Connectivity as the largest driver behind $18bn FY28E Guidance : On Scale -out, 800G demand stays robust while 1.6T DSPs are ramping rapidly with further acceleration for FY28E. Revenue from 51.2T switches is expected to double this fiscal year alongside expanding customer adoption. For Scale -across, AI clusters demand roughly 10× more bandwidth compared with legacy DCI environments, creating strong tailwinds for 1.6T ZR/ZR+ coherent DSP for inter -data -center connectivity. On Scale -up deployments, the Celestial AI acquisition strengthens Marvell's CPO/NPO, optical fabric capabilities. Management commented that the FY28E Scale -up optical revenue opportunity is meaningfully larger than the prior $300mn expectation. Of note, Marvell has allocated approximately $1bn in supplier prepayments to secure sufficient capacity.
Risks: 1) AI demand slowdown; 2) ASIC project delay; 3) peer competition.
| W whi Profit forecast | FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 5,767 | 8,195 | 12,102 | 20,762 | 38,104 |
| Revenue YoY ( % ) | 4.7 | 42.1 | 47.7 | 71.6 | 83.5 |
| Net profit (m) | 1,377 | 2,466 | 4,109 | 7,334 | 13,826 |
| Net profit YoY ( % ) | 5.1 | 79.0 | 66.7 | 78.5 | 88.5 |
| EPS ($) | 1.6 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 14.5 |
| P/E | 142.2 | 77.3 | 50.5 | 28.0 | 15.3 |
| ROE ( % ) | 10.3 | 17.2 | 20.1 | 24.4 | 32.4 |
Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.
Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.
数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心
evanlee 李念颖 2026-08-28 15:52:16
Maintained Target price
Buy $290
Alicia Xia
SFC CE No. BSS651 aliciaxia@gfgroup.com.hk
Jeff Pu, CFA
SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk
Evan Lee
SFC CE No. BVI629 evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk
evanlee 李念颖 2026-08-28 15:52:16
Earnings Forecast
Earnings revision
By factoring results and guidance, we revise our FY27E/FY28E EPS estimates by +7%/+3%, respectively.
Figure 1: Earnings revision
| USDm | FY26 | FY27E | FY27E | FY28E | FY28E | Change (%) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDm | FY26 | Old | New | Old | New | FY27E | FY28E |
| Net sales | 8,195 | 11,524 | 12,102 | 20,354 | 20,762 | 5% | 2% |
| Gross profit | 4,872 | 6,786 | 7,101 | 11,602 | 11,834 | 5% | 2% |
| Operating profit | 2,889 | 4,067 | 4,461 | 7,426 | 7,742 | 10% | 4% |
| Pre-tax Income | 2,363 | 3,888 | 4,282 | 7,306 | 7,622 | 10% | 4% |
| Net profit | 2,466 | 3,683 | 4,109 | 6,920 | 7,334 | 12% | 6% |
| EPS ($) | 2.88 | 4.12 | 4.41 | 7.75 | 7.96 | 7% | 3% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin | 59.5% | 58.9% | 58.7% | 57.0% | 57.0% | ||
| Operating margin | 35.3% | 35.3% | 36.9% | 36.5% | 37.3% | ||
| Pre-tax margin | 28.8% | 33.7% | 35.4% | 35.9% | 36.7% | ||
| Net profit margin | 30.1% | 32.0% | 34.0% | 34.0% | 35.3% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 2: MRVL's P&L forecast
| (USD m) | FY26 | F1Q27 | F2Q27 | F3Q27E | F4Q27E | FY27E | F1Q28E | F2Q28E | F3Q28E | F4Q28E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 8,195 | 2,418 | 2,739 | 3,209 | 3,736 | 12,102 | 3,860 | 4,471 | 5,450 | 6,980 | 20,762 |
| COGS | 3,323 | 994 | 1,125 | 1,332 | 1,550 | 5,001 | 1,660 | 1,923 | 2,344 | 3,001 | 8,928 |
| Gross profit | 4,872 | 1,424 | 1,614 | 1,877 | 2,186 | 7,101 | 2,200 | 2,549 | 3,107 | 3,979 | 11,834 |
| Opex | 1,983 | 683 | 769 | 853 | 954 | 2,640 | 1,075 | 1,210 | 0 | 911 | 4,093 |
| Operating profit | 2,889 | 847 | 1,003 | 1,194 | 1,416 | 4,461 | 1,347 | 1,595 | 2,031 | 2,769 | 7,742 |
| Non-operating profit | -526 | -89 | -30 | -30 | -30 | -179 | -30 | -30 | -30 | -30 | -120 |
| Pre-tax profit | 2,363 | 758 | 973 | 1,164 | 1,386 | 4,282 | 1,317 | 1,565 | 2,001 | 2,739 | 7,622 |
| Income tax | 103 | -40 | -37 | -44 | -52 | -173 | -50 | -59 | -75 | -103 | -287 |
| Non-GAAP Net Income | 2,466 | 718 | 866 | 1,120 | 1,334 | 4,039 | 1,268 | 1,506 | 1,926 | 2,636 | 7,334 |
| Non-GAAP EPS ($) | 2.88 | 0.80 | 0.94 | 1.22 | 1.45 | 4.41 | 1.38 | 1.63 | 2.09 | 2.86 | 7.96 |
| Diluted shares | 856 | 893 | 921 | 921 | 921 | 893 | 921 | 921 | 921 | 921 | 921 |
| Margin analysis | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 59.5% | 58.9% | 58.9% | 58.5% | 58.5% | 58.7% | 57.0% | 57.0% | 57.0% | 57.0% | 57.0% |
| Operating margin | 35.3% | 35.0% | 36.6% | 37.2% | 37.9% | 36.9% | 34.9% | 35.7% | 37.3% | 39.7% | 37.3% |
| Pre-tax margin | 28.8% | 31.4% | 35.5% | 36.3% | 37.1% | 35.4% | 34.1% | 35.0% | 36.7% | 39.2% | 36.7% |
| Effective tax rate | -4.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Growth (% YoY) | |||||||||||
| Sales | 42% | 28% | 37% | 55% | 68% | 48% | 60% | 63% | 70% | 87% | 72% |
| Operating profit | 74% | 31% | 44% | 59% | 79% | 54% | 59% | 59% | 70% | 95% | 74% |
| Net income | 79% | 33% | 48% | 71% | 95% | 64% | 77% | 74% | 72% | 98% | 82% |
| EPS | 84% | 30% | 40% | 60% | 81% | 53% | 71% | 74% | 72% | 98% | 81% |
| Product mix (%) | |||||||||||
| Data center | 74% | 76% | 79% | 84% | 81% | 81% | 82% | 84% | 87% | 90% | 86% |
| Carrier | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% |
| Enterprise networking | 10% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 6% |
| Auto industrial | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Consumer | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage evanlee 李念颖 2026-08-28 15:52:16
evanlee 李念颖 2026-08-28 15:52:16
Valuation and Recommendation
Maintain Buy with TP of $290
We maintain Marvell (MRVL US) at Buy rating with TP of $290, based on 20x our FY29E (CY2028) EPS estimate. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market will be mainly focused on the company's earnings outlook, and we usually apply P/E method to technology firms with robust growth.
Marvell's P/E traded at an average of 20-40x since 2018 since the launch of ChatGPT. On relative basis, the peer group trades at an average of 20-40x forward P/E. Our target price is based on 20x FY29E P/E, which is inline of its mid-term valuation within this AI cycle.
Figure 3: MRVL's 12-month forward P/E
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Risks
1) AI demand slowdown; 2) ASIC project delay; 3) peer competition.
| Balance Sheet | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | USD mn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
| Current assets | 3,120 | 6,461 | 10,577 | 20,524 | 32,499 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 948 | 2,639 | 5,595 | 11,236 | 18,798 |
| Inventory | 1,030 | 1,388 | 1,727 | 3,360 | 5,140 |
| Accounts Receivable | 1,028 | 2,187 | 3,026 | 5,653 | 8,281 |
| Other current assets | 114 | 247 | 230 | 275 | 279 |
| Non-current assets | 17,084 | 15,825 | 17,755 | 18,927 | 20,669 |
| Long-term equity investment | - | - | - | - | - |
| Fixed assets | 791 | 935 | 1,392 | 2,353 | 4,115 |
| Other long-term assets | 16,294 | 14,890 | 16,363 | 16,575 | 16,554 |
| Total assets | 20,205 | 22,285 | 28,332 | 39,451 | 53,168 |
| Current liabilities | 2,027 | 3,221 | 2,413 | 3,493 | 4,541 |
| Accounts Payable | 622 | 1,074 | 1,088 | 2,117 | 3,102 |
| Short-term borrowings | 130 | 500 | - | - | - |
| Other current liabilities | 1,275 | 1,647 | 1,325 | 1,376 | 1,439 |
| Non-current liabilities | 4,751 | 4,756 | 5,779 | 5,885 | 5,947 |
| Long-term Debt | 3,934 | 3,971 | 4,966 | 4,973 | 4,979 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 816 | 786 | 813 | 912 | 968 |
| Total liabilities | 6,778 | 7,977 | 8,192 | 9,378 | 10,488 |
| Total Equity | 13,427 | 14,308 | 20,141 | 30,073 | 42,680 |
| Share Capital | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Additional Paid-in Capital | 14,535 | 12,951 | 17,607 | 23,921 | 27,170 |
| Retained earnings | -1,109 | 1,356 | 2,532 | 6,150 | 15,508 |
| Minority interests | - | - | - | - | - |
| Total Liabilities & Equity | 20,205 | 22,285 | 28,332 | 39,451 | 53,168 |
| Income Statement | USD mn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
| Revenue | 5,767 | 8,195 | 12,102 | 20,762 | 38,104 |
| Cost of sales | 2,247 | 3,323 | 5,001 | 8,928 | 17,528 |
| Gross profit | 3,521 | 4,872 | 7,101 | 11,834 | 20,576 |
| Operating Expense | 1,856 | 1,983 | 2,640 | 4,093 | 6,088 |
| Operating profit | 1,665 | 2,889 | 4,461 | 7,742 | 14,488 |
| Interest Income | 15 | -11 | - | - | - |
| Interest Expense | 189 | 203 | 214 | 199 | 199 |
| Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) | -9 | -313 | 35 | 79 | 79 |
| Pre-tax profit | 1,481 | 2,363 | 4,282 | 7,622 | 14,368 |
| Income tax | 104 | -103 | 173 | 287 | 542 |
| Profit for the year | 1,377 | 2,466 | 4,109 | 7,334 | 13,826 |
| Minority interest | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net profit to ord. equity | 1,377 | 2,466 | 4,109 | 7,334 | 13,826 |
| EPS ($) | 1.6 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 14.5 |
evanlee 李念颖 2026-08-28 15:52:16
| Cash Flow Statement | USD mn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
| Operating cash flow | 1,681 | 1,751 | 3,950 | 8,583 | 14,049 |
| Net profit (GAAP) | -885 | 2,670 | 1,392 | 3,837 | 9,579 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 717 | 491 | 383 | 431 | 533 |
| Change in working capital | -852 | -1,108 | 1,324 | 3,231 | 3,425 |
| Others | 2,701 | -302 | 850 | 1,084 | 513 |
| Investing cash flow | -301 | 2,098 | -1,873 | -960 | -1,762 |
| Capex | -285 | -327 | -604 | -960 | -1,762 |
| Change in investment | - | 2,479 | -1,271 | - | - |
| Others | -16 | -54 | 2 | - | - |
| Free cash flow | 1,397 | 1,424 | 3,346 | 7,623 | 12,286 |
| Financing cash flow | -1,383 | -2,158 | 880 | -1,982 | -4,724 |
| Change in Capital | -676 | -2,040 | -950 | -1,700 | -4,500 |
| Net Change in Debt | -109 | 969 | 494 | 6 | 6 |
| Others | -598 | -1,087 | 1,336 | -288 | -230 |
| Exchange influence | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net increase in cash | -3 | 1,691 | 2,956 | 5,641 | 7,562 |
| Key Financial Ratios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth | 4.7 | 42.1 | 47.7 | 71.6 | 83.5 |
| Operating profit growth | 4.1 | 73.5 | 54.4 | 73.5 | 87.1 |
| Net profit growth | 5.1 | 79.0 | 66.7 | 78.5 | 88.5 |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross profit margin | 61.0 | 59.5 | 58.7 | 57.0 | 54.0 |
| Operating Profit Margin | 28.9 | 35.3 | 36.9 | 37.3 | 38.0 |
| Net profit margin | 23.9 | 30.1 | 34.0 | 35.3 | 36.3 |
| Key Ratio | |||||
| ROA | 6.6 | 11.6 | 16.2 | 21.6 | 29.9 |
| ROE | 10.3 | 17.2 | 20.1 | 24.4 | 32.4 |
| Stability | |||||
| Gross debt/equity | 50.5 | 55.7 | 40.7 | 31.2 | 24.6 |
| Interest Coverage | 8.8 | 12.7 | 21.0 | 39.3 | 73.2 |
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 7.2 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 6.0 |
| Net debt/equity | 23.2 | 12.8 | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash |
Rating definitions
Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Company ratings Buy
Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Hold
Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10 % and 10 %
Underperform
Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Sector ratings Positive
Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral
Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious
Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
Hong Kong Company
GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited
Address
27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong
Telephone
(852) 37191111
evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk