Stock LLM Wiki

報告_大和_M31_20260506

更新 2026-05-09

PDF 原檔:報告_大和_M31_20260506_original.pdf

原始內容

M31 Technology (6643 TT)

Target price:

TWD750.00 (from TWD600.00)

Share price (6 May):

TWD650.00 |

Up/downside: +15.4%

Structural turnaround round the corner

  • Downbeat 1Q26 results for still bumpy operations but …
  • … strong earnings turnaround still on track to kick off from 2Q26
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating with a higher 12M TP of TWD750

What's new: M31 reported downbeat 1Q26 results for still bumpy quarterly operations due to delayed license projects. That said, we expect the delayed projects to catch up, evidenced by its improved April revenue, which management expects to set a good stage for growing revenue runrates into 2H26. Its goal of royalty outgrowing license revenue and the role it plays in the AI cycle reinforce our positive stance on M31's strong earnings turnaround from 2Q26, and our Buy (1) rating on the stock.

What's the impact: Results bumpy and downbeat but … M31 released a 1Q26 net loss of TWD49m, missing our/consensus estimates of TWD53m/TWD35m net profit due to lower revenue on delayed license recognition resulting in insufficient economies of scale to cover the higher opex associated with R&D, despite being partially offset by higher nonoperating gains (table on p.2). Management offered no numeric guidance for 2Q26, yet expects just released April revenue (TWD169m, +40% MoM, +31% YoY) to set a good stage for monthly revenue run-rates into MayJune, aiming for growth to continue into 2H26 with the bottom line turning positive. It further set a 'cautiously confident' tone for M31's 2026 outlook, reaffirming its goal for royalty revenue to outgrow license for a 20% revenue contribution this year, driven by advanced-node (N3-16) ramps for ASP accretion. All these support our view calling for M31 to structurally turn around its earnings growth from 2Q26, despite its bumpy quarterly operations over the past 4 quarters post its transition effect .

… structural turnaround still in sight. Management at today's call reaffirmed its rich pipeline of license projects accumulated over the years that cover a broad scope of foundation and interface IP from specialty to advanced nodes (N40/28/22 to N5/4/3/2) ready to convert into royalty revenue stream for growth. It further outlined how M31 plays a role in AI by leveraging its IP offerings of SRAM compilers and interfaces (SerDes, PCIe, USB, etc.) for cloud AI, and SRAM compilers, sensors, and interfaces (USB, MIPI, UFS, and display ports) for edge AI. All these reinforce our positive stance on its structural business and AI positioning.

What we recommend: Despite our forecast revisions, we raise our 12M TP for M31 to TWD750 (previous: TWD600), based on a higher 4-quarter PER target of 45x (previous: 40x) to discount its 2026-28E EPS CAGR of 56% with a 0.8x PEG, as we introduce our 2028 forecasts. We reaffirm our Buy (1) rating with key downside risk of any geopolitical overhang (war, FX, tariff) weighing on end-demand and delaying M31's royalty ramp.

How we differ: Our 2026-27E EPS are 35-47% above the consensus forecasts, likely due to our more positive view on M31's royalty ramps.

Rick Hsu (886) 2 8758 6261

rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Sharon Kao (886) 2 8758 6255 sharon.kao@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (3.1) 2.4 n.a.
Net profit change (18.9) 1.8 n.a.
Core EPS (FD) change (18.9) 1.8 n.a.

Source: Daiwa forecasts

報告_大和_M31_20260506_001
報告_大和_M31_20260506_002
12-month range 374.00-650.00
Market cap (USDbn) 0.86
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 21.77
Shares outstanding (m) 42
Major shareholder Huey-Ling Chen (21.4%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 2,283 3,157 3,803
Operating profit (m) 480 955 1,211
Net profit (m) 435 835 1,054
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 10.401 19.969 25.219
EPS change (%) 515.9 92.0 26.3
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 34.6 46.7 n.a.
PER (x) 62.5 32.6 25.8
Dividend yield (%) 0.2 1.5 2.3
DPS 1.2 10.0 15.0
PBR (x) 11.9 10.1 8.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 47.6 25.0 19.5
ROE (%) 20.8 33.5 36.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

M31: quarterly P&L forecasts

TWDm 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue 435 449 355 544 395 528 624 736 1,782 2,283 3,157 3,803
License 352 404 277 484 323 434 512 599 1,517 1,869 2,496 2,973
Royalty 83 45 78 60 71 94 112 137 265 414 660 830
COGS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gross profit 435 449 355 544 395 528 624 736 1,782 2,283 3,157 3,803
Opex -427 -410 -403 -450 -461 -425 -446 -471 -1,689 -1,803 -2,201 -2,592
Operating profit 8 39 -48 95 -66 103 178 265 93 480 955 1,211
Non-op gain (loss) 15 -87 46 26 19 5 6 6 1 36 27 37
Pretax profit 23 -47 -2 120 -47 108 184 271 94 516 982 1,247
Income taxes -3 7 -6 -21 -2 -15 -26 -38 -23 -81 -147 -193
Net profit 20 -41 -7 99 -49 93 158 233 71 435 835 1,054
EPS (TWD, basic) 0.47 -0.98 -0.18 2.38 -1.18 2.22 3.78 5.58 1.69 10.40 19.97 25.22
EPS (TWD, fully diluted) 0.47 -0.98 -0.18 2.38 -1.18 2.22 3.78 5.58 1.69 10.40 19.97 25.22
Revenue mix
License 81% 90% 78% 89% 82% 82% 82% 81% 85% 82% 79% 78%
Royalty 19% 10% 22% 11% 18% 18% 18% 19% 15% 18% 21% 22%
Margin
Gross profit 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Opex 98% 91% 114% 83% 117% 81% 72% 64% 95% 79% 70% 68%
Operating profit 2% 9% -14% 17% -17% 20% 29% 36% 5% 21% 30% 32%
Net profit 5% -9% -2% 18% -12% 18% 25% 32% 4% 19% 26% 28%
Growth (QoQ)
Revenue 33% 3% -21% 53% -27% 34% 18% 18%
Gross profit 33% 3% -21% 53% -27% 34% 18% 18%
Operating profit nm 413% -223% nm -170% -256% 73% 49%
Net profit nm -308% nm nm -150% nm 70% 47%
EPS (basic) nm -308% nm nm -150% nm 70% 47%
EPS (FD) nm -309% nm nm -150% nm 70% 47%
Growth (YoY)
Revenue 27% 5% -7% 66% -9% 18% 76% 35% 20% 28% 38% 20%
Gross profit 27% 5% -7% 66% -9% 18% 76% 35% 20% 28% 38% 20%
Operating profit 182% -63% -208% nm nm 163% nm 180% 75% 415% 99% 27%
Net profit -54% -137% -127% nm -351% nm nm 135% -44% 516% 92% 26%
EPS (basic) -54% -137% -127% nm -351% nm nm 135% -45% 515% 92% 26%
EPS (FD) -54% -137% -127% nm -351% nm nm 135% -44% 516% 92% 26%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

M31: 1Q26 results review and 2Q26 outlook

1Q26 1Q26 1Q26 Variance Variance Growth Growth
TWDm Actual Daiwa Consensus Daiwa Consensus QoQ YoY Guidance Daiwa (previous)
Revenue 395 470 456 -16% -13% -27% -9% na revenue up 12% QoQ
License 323 389 na -17% na -33% -8%
Royalty 71 81 na -11% na 19% -13%
Gross profit 395 470 456 -16% -13% -27% -9%
Opex -461 -413 -432 11% 7% 3% 8% na opex up 3% QoQ
Operating profit -66 56 24 -218% -378% -170% nm
Pretax profit -47 61 44 -177% -208% -139% -307%
Net profit -49 53 35 -193% -241% -150% -351%
FD EPS (TWD) -1.18 1.26 0.84 -193% -241% -150% -351%
Margin
Gross 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Operating -16.8% 12.0% 5.2% -28.8% -22.0%
Net -12.5% 11.2% 7.7% -23.7% -20.2%

Source: Company, Daiwa estimates and forecasts

M31: numbers of license project build

報告_大和_M31_20260506_003

Cumulative license build for previous years

New license build for current year

Source: Company

M31: 4-quarter forward PER bands

報告_大和_M31_20260506_004

Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Licensing growth (%) (1.0) 24.4 26.0 (7.8) 22.2 23.2 33.5 19.1
Royalty growth (%) 35.0 90.5 (8.9) (9.7) 10.7 56 59.5 25.7

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Licensing 859 1,069 1,347 1,241 1,517 1,869 2,496 2,973
Royalty 153 291 265 240 265 414 660 830
Other Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Revenue 1,012 1,360 1,612 1,481 1,782 2,283 3,157 3,803
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SG&A (153) (178) (225) (280) (337) (379) (421) (501)
Other op.expenses (546) (814) (940) (1,148) (1,352) (1,425) (1,781) (2,091)
Operating profit 313 368 446 53 93 480 955 1,211
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (1) 10 29 28 18 22 27 37
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (19) 65 37 69 (17) 14 0 0
Pre-tax profit 294 443 513 150 94 516 982 1,247
Tax (41) (64) (78) (23) (23) (81) (147) (193)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 253 379 435 127 71 435 835 1,054
Net profit (adjusted) 253 379 435 127 71 435 835 1,054
EPS (reported)(TWD) 6.096 9.173 10.401 3.047 1.690 10.401 19.969 25.219
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 6.096 9.173 10.401 3.047 1.690 10.401 19.969 25.219
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 6.096 9.032 10.401 3.036 1.689 10.401 19.969 25.219
DPS (TWD) 8.000 4.784 6.061 6.693 2.001 1.200 10.000 15.000
EBIT 313 368 446 53 93 480 955 1,211
EBITDA 353 415 496 117 168 553 1,044 1,315

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 294 443 513 150 94 516 982 1,247
Depreciation and amortisation 40 47 49 63 75 73 89 105
Tax paid (41) (64) (78) (23) (23) (81) (147) (193)
Change in working capital (65) (11) (54) (100) (76) (65) (201) (5)
Other operational CF items (4) 236 (189) (43) (43) 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations 225 652 241 47 26 443 723 1,154
Capex (533) (31) (34) (80) (48) (68) (95) (114)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 142 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items 219 (154) 225 (13) 94 (5) (5) (5)
Cash flow from investing (314) (186) 332 (93) 46 (73) (100) (119)
Change in debt 89 (89) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (332) (198) (254) (279) (84) (50) (418) (627)
Other financing CF items 108 56 (5) (10) (15) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (134) (232) (259) (289) (98) (50) (418) (627)
Forex effect/others 3 5 (12) 15 (5) 0 0 0
Change in cash (220) 239 302 (320) (31) 319 205 408
Free cash flow (308) 620 207 (34) (22) 374 628 1,040

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 724 1,114 1,148 682 558 877 1,082 1,490
Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts receivable 319 325 374 263 336 416 616 626
Other current assets 89 220 133 260 346 346 346 346
Total current assets 1,132 1,659 1,654 1,205 1,240 1,639 2,044 2,461
Fixed assets 683 571 562 592 605 607 619 637
Goodwill & intangibles 8 11 12 18 29 29 26 23
Other non-current assets 114 126 169 345 289 289 289 289
Total assets 1,937 2,367 2,397 2,159 2,163 2,563 2,978 3,410
Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 6 2 5 2 2 17 16 21
Other current liabilities 264 503 321 215 247 247 247 247
Total current liabilities 270 505 326 217 249 264 263 268
Long-term debt 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current liabilities 0 5 8 23 14 14 14 14
Total liabilities 353 510 334 240 263 278 277 282
Share capital 316 317 348 418 418 418 418 418
Reserves/R.E./others 1,268 1,540 1,715 1,501 1,482 1,867 2,284 2,711
Shareholders' equity 1,584 1,857 2,063 1,919 1,900 2,285 2,702 3,129
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 1,937 2,367 2,397 2,159 2,163 2,563 2,978 3,410
EV 26,528 26,054 26,021 26,486 26,611 26,292 26,087 25,679
Net debt/(cash) (641) (1,114) (1,148) (682) (558) (877) (1,082) (1,490)
BVPS (TWD) 38.211 44.927 49.307 46.084 45.496 54.669 64.638 74.857

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 3.1 34.4 18.5 (8.2) 20.3 28.1 38.3 20.5
EBITDA (YoY) (23.3) 17.6 19.3 (76.5) 43.9 229.2 88.9 26.0
Operating profit (YoY) (25.2) 17.6 21.3 (88.1) 75.0 415.0 99.1 26.7
Net profit (YoY) (21.6) 50.1 14.7 (70.8) (44.4) 515.9 92.0 26.3
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) (22.3) 48.2 15.2 (70.8) (44.4) 515.9 92.0 26.3
Gross-profit margin 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
EBITDA margin 34.9 30.5 30.7 7.9 9.4 24.2 33.1 34.6
Operating-profit margin 30.9 27.1 27.7 3.6 5.2 21.0 30.3 31.8
Net profit margin 25.0 27.9 27.0 8.6 4.0 19.0 26.4 27.7
ROAE 16.3 22.0 22.2 6.4 3.7 20.8 33.5 36.2
ROAA 13.7 17.6 18.3 5.6 3.3 18.4 30.1 33.0
ROCE 19.7 20.9 22.8 2.7 4.9 22.9 38.3 41.5
ROIC 43.0 37.4 45.7 4.2 5.4 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 13.9 14.4 15.2 15.6 24.8 15.7 15.0 15.5
Accounts receivable (days) 103.5 86.4 79.1 78.5 61.3 60.0 59.6 59.6
Current ratio (x) 4.2 3.3 5.1 5.5 5.0 6.2 7.8 9.2
Net interest cover (x) 593.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 102.9 103.1 88.3 76.6 65.8 71.1 96.1 75.1
Free cash flow yield n.a. 2.3 0.8 n.a. n.a. 1.4 2.3 3.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 2011, M31 is an independent semiconductor IP provider in Taiwan, offering both foundation IP for specialty technology nodes and functional IP such as high-speed interface and analogue IP.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analyst comments
Executive/board quality 2 M31's board of directors (BoD) has 7 members, including 3 independent directors, who represent 43% of total directors, higher than the regulatory requirement of at least 20%. Its Chairman and President are not the same person, but its President is one of the directors. M31 has the Audit Committee, Compensation Committee and Risk Control Committee under the BoD.
G Capital management 1 Although M31 is a young company (founded in 2011 and listed in 2019), its dividend payout ratio has been over the 75% level for the past 5 years. M31 is a semiconductor IP provider without onsite production activities, which would require high capex to do so. As such, we view its high dividend payout ratio to be appropriate.
Related party & transaction 1 We do not see any meaningful impact from related-party transactions.
S Supply chain management 2 M31's suppliers are required to comply with the Supplier Management Standards, which was set by M31 in 2013. In addition, M31 has periodical evaluations for its suppliers and onsite audits to ensure the quality and implementation of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), as well as Environmental Protection and Safety and Integrity Policies.
E Water & wastewater management 1 M31 is a semiconductor IP provider without physical products, and thus no production activity to affect the environment.
E Waste & hazardous materials management 1 The company is a semiconductor IP provider without physical products, and thus no production activity to affect the environment. It still adopts some measures to reduce waste from its operations, such as recycling and using electronic files to replace paper documents as much as possible to reduce the use of paper.
E GHG emissions 1 M31 is a semiconductor IP provider without physical products, and thus no production activity to affect the environment.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 11 Mar 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-07-02)

回補驗證:僅涵蓋已被 lib 頁嵌入的圖片,非全量驗證。

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_大和_M31_20260506_003.png 28KB 真資料圖 累計授權案數長條圖,深藍為歷年累計、灰色為當年新增,橫軸 2012 至 1Q26,數值逐年成長至近 1,900 件
報告_大和_M31_20260506_004.png 55KB 真資料圖 股價與本益比區間圖,深藍線為股價(TWD),灰階線標示 25x/35x/45x/55x/65x/75x 本益比帶,橫軸 Jan-19 至 Dec-26,圖下方標註 Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa forecasts