報告_UBS_聯發科2454_20260731

PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_聯發科2454_20260731_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-03）

原始內容

Key Call: MediaTek Inc.

Meaningful step-up in TPU guidance; conviction rising on share gains and execution

Stronger visibility for larger TPU TAM, higher share and execution

Management shared higher visibility of Google TPU sales opportunity, its share gains, and increased confidence about the execution of TPU v9 ramping in 2028. TPU v8t is on track to start ramping in Q4 with over US$2bn sales. MediaTek raised the 2027 sales target from US$7-12bn to US$12-16bn, which is now based on larger TAM of US$80bn and MediaTek's higher share target of 15-20% vs 10-15% prior. We still see room for higher sales contribution in 2027, and forecast US$18bn. See Figure 1 B U S f o r e c a s t M i T d ' k P b n u for our TPU financial analysis. With a steady ramp of TPU and stable existing business, MediaTek guided 2026 sales to grow high single digit YoY, vs UBSe of 9% growth pre-earnings.

TPU v9 on track for MP in 2028 with improving yield of EMIB-T

As for TPU v9, management showed a lot more conviction than prior quarters and indicated the project is on track for mass production in 2028. The TAM should be much larger than US$80bn and MediaTek anticipates further and meaningful share expansion. We believe as of now, the tape out is on track for delivery in Q426. On the market concern regarding Intel's EMIB-T risk, MediaTek was also constructive about the supply situation and the yield improvement, especially at the substrate makers' end. This aligns with our recent sector deep dive on Intel's EMIB-T, that we believe Ibiden is making good progress and should have reached a reasonable 50% yield for trial production. Unimicron also showed a lot more commitment on EMIB-T earlier this week, which makes us more comfortable with substrate supply for v9 to reach >2mn units in 2028 and drive US$35bn TPU sales for MediaTek. MediaTek's board also approved a US$5bn financing budget to secure and invest in supply chain capacity when necessary-we view this as essential in further enhancing MediaTek's positioning in Cloud/Edge AI by leveraging its scale, especially with the increasing supply chain shortage.

Q3 sales better than feared; Q4 to strongly inflect

Q3 sales is guided to grow 0-5% QoQ, above recent buyside expectations of flat to 5% QoQ decline, in our view. The strength is supported by smart edge, new flagship 5G SoC, and price hike to pass through supply chain cost. We have flagged that MediaTek should raise pricing for most products by 5-10% from Sept. Based on full year sales guidance of high single digit growth, Q4 sales is implied to grow >30% QoQ, through >US$2bn sales from TPU v8 and flagship smartphone seasonality.

Valuation: maintain Key Call Buy and target of NT$6,500

We fine tune 2026/27E/28E EPS to NT$67.6/181.5/301.4. Our 2027/28E EPS are well above consensus by 39%/19%. MediaTek's higher conviction on TPU opportunity, especially the TPU v9 progress, should ease investor concerns on execution. Reiterate Key Call Buy and target of NT$6,500, based on 27x 2027-28E PE.

Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 3,555.00 on 31-Jul-2026

Figure 1: UBS forecasts for MediaTek's TPU business

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 2: MediaTek's key growth drivers

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 3: Q226 earnings comparison

Source: Company data, Visible Alpha, LSEG, UBS estimate

Figure 4: MediaTek's operating metrics

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 5: Revenue mix by product group

Source: Company data, UBS

Figure 6: Revisions to UBS earnings estimates

Source: UBS estimates. Note: Our EPS estimates here are based on basic EPS, and may differ from the table on the cover page.

Figure 7: UBS vs consensus earnings estimates

Source: LSEG, UBS estimates. Note: Our EPS estimates are based on basic EPS and may differ from the table on the cover page

Figure 8: UBS earnings forecasts

Source: Company data, UBS estimates. Note: Our EPS estimates are based on basic EPS and may differ from the table on the cover page

Figure 9: MediaTek's 12-month forward PE (x)

Source: Company data, LSEG, UBS

MediaTek Inc. (2454.TW)

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts. 1 Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) is calculated using UBS net income adding back depreciation and amortization.

MediaTek Inc. (2454.TW)

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.

Forecast returns

Company Description

MediaTek is a leading integrated circuit (IC) design company in Taiwan, focusing on solutions from the edge to the cloud, applications for its product offerings range from smartphones, smart homes and AI PCs to high-performance computing, automotive, and AI data centers.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Our price target for MediaTek is based on a target PE methodology.

Fabless integrated circuit (IC) design houses face a variety of uncertainties, including rapidly changing technology, end-market demand, competition, employee turnover and foundry wafer costs. They are also vulnerable to legal disputes over intellectual property rights. In addition, MediaTek is exposed to potential price competition in handset SoC, TV SoC, etc. Downside risks include slower-than-expected market share gains and a weaker-thanexpected demand recovery.

Quantitative Research Review

UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.

MediaTek Inc.

Required Disclosures

This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".

For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 31 July 2026 11:05 AM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts coauthor research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses, please see the Quantitative Research Review Addendum at the back of this report, where applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/ quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quantanswers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.