報告_UBS_台達電2308_20260915

PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_台達電2308_20260915_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-09-16）

原始內容

First Read

Delta Electronics

Add to APAC Key Call Buy - Taiwan Summit reaffirms the AI Power opportunity

Capturing a robust industry TAM as the leading server power supplier

Delta affirmed a stronger growth profile as AI infrastructure now is over 50% of sales. Our bottom-up model from our APAC Focus (link) estimates a 69% CAGR to US$91.1bn AI server power TAM from 2025-2030 even moderating 2028-30 for hyperscale cash flow and grid power constraints. We see a strong 2027 driven by +65% YoY accelerator die growth, Rubin's ~60% higher rack power and AMD's move to rack-scale systems. 400V/800V becomes a larger driver in 2028-29 as rising power density outgrows lowvoltage distribution. We believe Delta is key beneficiary with its broad grid-to-chip portfolio helping sustain its ~40% share of a rising TAM.

Near-term supply constraints bottoming from Aug and accelerating into Q4.

Supply constraints on Power ICs have tempered Q3 growth from +15-20% QoQ to +1012% QoQ but should grow in Sep and accelerate to double digit QoQ in Q426 and above seasonal Q127 (UBS +3% QoQ) into new ASIC/GPU platform ramps and more supply. Management expects shortages to persist for at least the next several quarters with demand accelerating faster than supply and the supply-demand gap likely widening before narrowing but price hikes rebounding OpMs.

HVDC Adoption Appears Increasingly Inevitable.

HVDC production and shipments have begun and should be modest in 2027 before ramping sharper in the following 1-2 years. As rack power rises from 140kW on GB300 to nearly 250kW on VR200 and potentially higher on Rubin Ultra, management expects space and efficiency constraints to shift power systems out of racks and into side-car or centralized architectures. Delta sees HVDC as the logical solution for power-loss, thermal, and density challenges, with higher-voltage architectures offering multipletimes higher value per watt than current solutions. Delta sees three hyperscalers evaluating 400V, two adopting it for NVIDIA racks initially before converging on 800V.

Reiterate Buy and PT NT$2,750

Delta's stock has pulled back 36% since May following push-outs to NVIDIA's architecture slowing the dedicated power rack ramp-up and elevating supply constraints, pulling it back to 22x/17x 2026-27 EPS. We now see better entry with sales ramping in H226, spec upgrades to ASIC power racks and Rubin at 60% higher TDP over Blackwell and margins holding better than feared. The company should leverage its strong product line, R&D and field support to participate in the key power architecture transitions in the coming years moving the power stack out of the rack and also developing emerging nascent technologies including SST for facility level power transformation and rectification and fuel cells licensing Ceres for medium-term opportunity to supplement the power grid constraint with alternative energy.

Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 1,620.00 on 14-Sep-2026

Figure 1: UBS / Consensus expectations for Q326-Q127E and 2025A-27E

Source: UBSe, Visible Alpha Consensus

Figure 2: AI Power TAM build-up: rising watts per rack drive the majority of growth

Source: UBS

Figure 3: Delta Key Operating Metrics: Sales led by power and infrastructure

Source: UBS

2024

$224,270

9.1%

$43,278

1.5%

$100,691

2.3%

$52,638

-3.1%

$421,148

5.0%

2024

53%

10%

24%

12%

100%

2025

$280,320

25.0%

$36,907

-14.7%

$182,642

81.4%

$54,822

4.1%

$554,885

31.8%

2025

51%

7%

33%

10%

100%

2026E

$423,428

51.1%

$32,884

-10.9%

$260,581

42.7%

$64,911

18.4%

$782,854

41.1%

2026E

54%

4%

33%

8%

100%

2027E

$648,001

53.0%

$33,110

0.7%

$344,886

32.4%

$71,091

9.5%

$1,098,155

40.3%

2027E

59%

3%

31%

6%

100%

Figure 4: Delta Valuation vs. Global peers

• EPS Average in US$, Share price as of 9/14

Source: Company Data, UBSe, Refinitiv

Figure 5: Delta has pulled back from its peak

Source: Factset

Figure 6: Delta FWD EPS is still on growth trend

Source: Factset

Forecast returns

Company Description

Delta Electronics provides computer switching power supply solutions, as well as video display and electronics components, for computers, smartphones, telecom and industrial products. Founded in 1971, the firm has production bases in Taiwan, China, Thailand and India. In 2023, its power electronics, infrastructure and automation segments contributed 62%, 25% and 13% of revenue, respectively.

UBS EPS and Consensus EPS

The UBS EPS is an adjusted diluted EPS metric. It is calculated using the UBS analyst's interpretation of earnings suitable for valuation purposes divided by the diluted number of shares. This may differ to the way the consensus EPS metric has been calculated.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We base our price target on PE multiple valuation.

Delta's businesses include SPS and components for a variety of end-applications, video displays and data networking subsystem and system products. Any changes in these endmarkets could affect our forecasts for Delta. Investment risk could increase/decrease on any deviation from our expectations for end-market demand and competition.

Downside risks for Delta include: severe supply chain constraints; weaker-than-expected PC/ server demand; a slower-than-expected IA recovery; and a slower ramp of 5G in 2022.

Quantitative Research Review

UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.

Delta Electronics

Required Disclosures

This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".

For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 14 September 2026 04:29 PM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts co-author research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses, please see the Quantitative Research Review Addendum at the back of this report, where applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https:// neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubsquant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.