PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_台達電2308_20260715_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-17）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
260715_ubs_delta_008.png |
95KB | 真資料圖 | 台達電目標價（藍線）與股價（黑線）沿革圖，2023/4-2026中，目標價自 ~400 階梯式上調至 2,750，股價近期在 1,800-2,000 區間；下方時間軸標示 Buy／No Rating 評等區段 |
260715_ubs_delta_003.png |
71KB | 真資料圖 | 台達電 Sales/Opex（NT$mn，長條圖，左軸）與 GM%/OpM%（線圖，右軸）年度走勢，2010-2027E，近年營收與毛利率同步上升 |
260715_ubs_delta_001.png |
42KB | 真資料圖 | 台達電季度營收依事業別堆疊面積圖（Automation／Infrastructure／Mobility／Power Supply Products），Q118-Q326E，Power Supply 佔比持續擴大 |
260715_ubs_delta_004.png |
47KB | 真資料圖 | 台達電營運現金流／資本支出（長條圖，左軸 NT$bn）與 FCF/股利（線圖，右軸 NT$）年度走勢，2010-2027E，近年現金流大幅成長 |
260715_ubs_delta_006.png |
50KB | 真資料圖 | 台達電股價（面積圖，左軸 NT$）與 NTM P/E（線圖，右軸 x）走勢，2002/7-2026中，另繪 Avg P/E 17x、±1SD（13x/22x）三條水平線，近期 P/E 已遠超 +1SD |
260715_ubs_delta_002.png |
46KB | 真資料圖 | 台達電季度營收依事業別堆疊折線圖（Power Supply Products／Infrastructure／Mobility／Automation），Q118-Q326E，與 001 同資料的折線版呈現 |
260715_ubs_delta_005.png（36KB）、260715_ubs_delta_007.png（28KB）低於 40KB 門檻，預設非資料圖，未逐張 Read。
原始內容
Delta Electronics
Power TAM still rising amid roadmap changes
Q2 Preview - Lowering sales and margins in line with latest expectations
Results (due 30 July) should discuss the milder Q226 but still strong H226/2027 outlook. Q2 sales rose +15% QoQ, in line with our latest view, but below original UBS/Street +18%/17% QoQ due to delays in data center projects and stretching lead times on IGBT/MOSFETs. We also trim Q2 GM/OpM from 37.1%/19.5% to 36.0%/18.0%, and EPS from NT$10.51 to NT$9.36; all a bit below street (Figure 1 B U v S . s V A o C e n u Q 2 1 - 3 6 E a d 5 0 8 ) reflecting lower revenue scale, component costs not yet passed through and 70bp QoQ headwind from a Q1 reversal. Infrastructure led (34% of sales) +22% QoQ, with liquid cooling a bright spot (12% of Q2), while power supply (53% of sales) grew +13% QoQ, shy of 20%+ expectations. Smaller segments were mild, with mobility (5% of sales) up 8% QoQ and automation (8% of sales) up 6% QoQ though not meaningfully recovering.
H2 rebound and 400/800 VDC developments continue amid roadmap shifts
We raise Q326 sales from +11% to +15% QoQ vs. street +13% QoQ with ~3-5% price hikes to pass on component costs and continued Blackwell strength ahead of Rubin and Trainum 3 ramp albeit milder liquid cooling growth. We model Q4 +8% QoQ as Rubin rack ramps shift later in Q4 though first wave customers still deploy. We expect 20% of racks in 2027 to use 400V and 800V power racks alongside the Rubin, TPU and Trainium IT racks to simplify the IT rack and prepare for follow-on generations; important for lifting content from 1-1.5% to 2-2.5% of the BOM. For Rubin Ultra, an upgraded Oberon NVL72 rack looks likely over Kyber (link) with the option to network 8 racks with optical transceivers (link), moderating the power rack requirement until Feynman.
Growth tracking stronger for 2026, adding capacity for future years
We balance a milder ramp of power racks with our upgraded rack forecast (now 72.5k/90k in 2026-27) to still net higher NVIDIA rack power CAGR from 60% to 65% for 2025-29 from US$3.6bn to US$26.3bn, supporting Delta to scale up its NVIDIA power sales to US$16bn or 30% of sales by 2029. We expect Rubin power rack penetration at 20% in 2027, Rubin Ultra at 30% in 2027 and 50% by 2029 and Feynman at full penetration. New products layer in 2028-29 including solid state transformer where Delta is shipping to a China cloud with 2.5MW design and planning to sample 6-10MW design for US/Europe in 2027 and solid oxide fuels cells with 3050MW mini-line in 2027 and 1GW+ capacity available mid-term in Guanyin.
Valuation: Maintain Buy and lift our PT from NT$2,600 to NT$2,750
We view the stock as more reasonably valued on the 25% pullback since late May and now 28/21x 2027/28E EPS, and stay positive on stronger CSP capex and rise in power/ cooling requirements. We fine-tune 2026E reflecting the lower Q2 sales/margins but lift 2027/28E EPS by 5-6% to NT$67.5/NT$90 vs. street NT$64/NT$103, lifting PT from NT $2,600 to NT$2,750 on same 35x 27-28E average P/E in line with global/China peers rerating to 30-40x, reflecting ~2 SD vs. its 5y avg. range.
| Highlights (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 401,227 | 421,148 | 554,886 | 782,070 | 1,097,681 | 1,422,589 | 1,665,440 | 1,880,285 |
| EBIT (UBS) | 40,950 | 47,652 | 83,932 | 150,784 | 232,792 | 307,241 | 366,098 | 413,594 |
| Net earnings (UBS) | 32,107 | 32,508 | 59,806 | 111,695 | 175,325 | 233,768 | 279,970 | 317,255 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | 12.36 | 12.52 | 23.02 | 43.00 | 67.50 | 90.00 | 107.78 | 122.14 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 9.84 | 6.43 | 7.00 | 11.60 | 21.56 | 33.84 | 45.11 | 54.03 |
| Net (debt) / cash | 51,519 | 65,074 | 104,887 | 137,260 | 246,028 | 265,961 | 363,223 | 477,360 |
| Profitability/valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EBIT (UBS) margin% | 10.2 | 11.3 | 15.1 | 19.3 | 21.2 | 21.6 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
| ROIC (EBIT)% | 23.9 | 26.6 | 43.9 | 68.6 | 92.3 | 95.2 | 87.2 | 85.2 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x | 12.7 | 12.9 | 13.8 | 26.6 | 17.6 | 13.5 | 11.1 | 9.6 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) x | 25.8 | 28.7 | 26.3 | 44.0 | 28.0 | 21.0 | 17.5 | 15.5 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield% | 5.2 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| Dividend yield (net)% | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 1,890.00 on 15-Jul-2026
Equities
Taiwan
Electric Components & Equipment
| 12-month rating | Buy |
|---|---|
| 12m price target | NT$2,750.00 Prior : NT$2,600 |
| Price (15 Jul 2026) | NT$1,890 |
| RIC: 2308.TW BBG: 2308 TT |
Trading data and key metrics
| 52-wk range | NT$2,520.00-499.00 |
|---|---|
| Market cap. | NT$4,909b/US$152b |
| Shares o/s | 2,598m (ORD) |
| Free float | 71% |
| Avg. daily volume ('000) | 12,760 |
| Avg. daily value (m) | NT$26,919.4 |
| Common s/h equity (12/26E) | NT$367b |
| P/BV (12/26E) | 13.4x |
| Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | NM |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| From | To | %ch | Cons. | |
| 12/26E | 43.35 | 43.00 | -1 | 41.32 |
| 12/27E | 64.00 | 67.50 | 5 | 66.19 |
| 12/28E | 85.00 | 90.00 | 6 | 102.97 |
Randy Abrams
Analyst randy.abrams@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7338
Diana Chang
Analyst diana.chang@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7335
Annie Chen
Associate Analyst annie.chen@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7281
tables and charts
Figure 1: UBS vs. VA Consensus Q126-Q326E and 2025-28E
| Q126 | Q226E | Q226E | Q226E | Q326E | Q326E | Q326E | 2025 | 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$m) | Actual | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA | Actual | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA |
| Revenue | 159,353 | 183,257 | 188,731 | 186,232 | 211,294 | 210,196 | 206,971 | 554,886 | 782,070 | 777,704 | 770,712 | 1,097,681 | 1,051,721 | 1,080,814 | 1,422,589 | 1,354,900 | 1,542,246 |
| - QoQ / YoY | -1.4% | 15.0% | 18.4% | 16.9% | 15.3% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 31.8% | 40.9% | 40.2% | 38.9% | 40.4% | 35.2% | 40.2% | 29.6% | 28.8% | 42.7% |
| Gross profit | 58,961 | 65,902 | 70,101 | 68,818 | 78,527 | 78,129 | 77,198 | 190,157 | 288,288 | 288,437 | 285,882 | 409,134 | 390,190 | 413,472 | 531,464 | 504,278 | 607,280 |
| - Gross margin | 37.0% | 36.0% | 37.1% | 37.0% | 37.2% | 37.2% | 37.3% | 34.3% | 36.9% | 37.1% | 37.1% | 37.3% | 37.1% | 38.3% | 37.4% | 37.2% | 39.4% |
| Operating profit | 28,417 | 33,049 | 36,835 | 35,090 | 42,346 | 41,926 | 40,642 | 83,932 | 150,784 | 151,948 | 147,093 | 232,792 | 221,218 | 234,746 | 307,241 | 290,707 | 368,568 |
| - OP margin | 17.8% | 18.0% | 19.5% | 18.8% | 20.0% | 19.9% | 19.6% | 15.1% | 19.3% | 19.5% | 19.1% | 21.2% | 21.0% | 21.7% | 21.6% | 21.5% | 23.9% |
| Non-op profit | 2,676 | 1,438 | 1,438 | 1,358 | 1,438 | 1,438 | 1,406 | 3,934 | 6,990 | 6,990 | 6,751 | 5,753 | 5,753 | 6,417 | 5,753 | 5,753 | 7,499 |
| Pre-tax profit | 31,093 | 34,487 | 38,273 | 36,448 | 43,784 | 43,364 | 42,048 | 87,866 | 157,774 | 158,938 | 153,844 | 238,545 | 226,971 | 240,628 | 312,993 | 296,459 | 375,385 |
| Tax | -7,258 | -7,415 | -8,229 | -7,707 | -9,414 | -9,323 | -8,958 | -19,930 | -34,495 | -34,745 | -33,366 | -51,287 | -48,799 | -51,613 | -67,294 | -63,739 | -81,191 |
| - Tax rate | 23.3% | 21.5% | 21.5% | 21.1% | 21.5% | 21.5% | 21.3% | 22.7% | 21.9% | 21.9% | 21.7% | 21.5% | 21.5% | 21.4% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| Minority | -3,279 | -2,750 | -2,750 | -2,937 | -2,779 | -2,779 | -3,421 | -7,828 | -11,585 | -11,585 | -12,961 | -11,932 | -11,932 | -16,946 | -11,932 | -11,932 | -25,209 |
| Net profit | 20,556 | 24,322 | 27,294 | 25,804 | 31,591 | 31,262 | 29,669 | 60,108 | 111,695 | 112,609 | 107,517 | 175,325 | 166,240 | 172,070 | 233,768 | 220,788 | 268,984 |
| EPS (NT$) | $7.91 | $9.36 | $10.51 | $9.83 | $12.16 | $12.04 | $11.35 | $23.14 | $43.00 | $43.35 | $41.39 | $67.50 | $64.00 | $66.24 | 90.00 | 85.00 | 103.55 |
Source: Company data, Visible Alpha, UBS estimates. Note: 2025 EPS is based on the reported number.
Figure 2: Delta revenue growth led by power supply and infrastructure
| Segment Totals (NT$mn) | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 | Q126 | Q226E | Q326E | Q426E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power Supply | $59,780 | $64,892 | $75,766 | $80,533 | $85,450 | $96,334 | $115,176 | $126,494 |
| QoQ (%) | 0.1% | 8.6% | 16.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 12.7% | 19.6% | 9.8% |
| YoY (%) | 27.6% | 17.5% | 21.3% | 34.8% | 42.9% | 48.5% | 52.0% | 57.1% |
| Mobility (EV) | $10,703 | $11,149 | $7,970 | $7,544 | $7,968 | $8,576 | $9,005 | $8,554 |
| QoQ (%) | 4.3% | 4.2% | -28.5% | -5.3% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 5.0% | -5.0% |
| YoY (%) | 1.7% | -1.1% | -29.0% | -26.5% | -25.6% | -23.1% | 13.0% | 13.4% |
| Infrastructure | $34,487 | $33,957 | $53,170 | $59,602 | $51,595 | $63,099 | $70,905 | $76,206 |
| QoQ (%) | 13.0% | -1.5% | 56.6% | 12.1% | -13.4% | 22.3% | 12.4% | 7.5% |
| YoY (%) | 57.0% | 46.6% | 112.2% | 95.4% | 49.6% | 85.8% | 33.4% | 27.9% |
| Automation | $13,950 | $14,037 | $13,412 | $13,934 | $14,339 | $15,247 | $16,208 | $16,911 |
| QoQ (%) | 1.8% | 0.6% | -4.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.3% |
| YoY (%) | 17.8% | 3.0% | -0.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 8.6% | 20.8% | 21.4% |
| Total Revenue (NT$mn) | $118,919 | $124,035 | $150,318 | $161,613 | $159,353 | $183,257 | $211,294 | $228,167 |
| QoQ (%) | 4.1% | 4.3% | 21.2% | 7.5% | -1.4% | 15.0% | 15.3% | 8.0% |
| YoY (%) | 30.3% | 19.9% | 34.0% | 41.5% | 34.0% | 47.7% | 40.6% | 41.2% |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 3: NVIDIA's roadmap to Feynman progressively ramps dedicated power racks
| NVIDIA Power Shelves | NVIDIA Power Shelves | NVIDIA Power Shelves | NVIDIA Power Shelves | NVIDIA Power Shelves | NVIDIA Power Racks | NVIDIA Power Racks | NVIDIA Power Racks | NVIDIA Power Racks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hardware Opportunity | Hopper | Blackwell | BW Ultra | Rubin | Rubin Ultra | Rubin | RU Oberon | RU Kyber | Feynman |
| Year of Introduction | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2027 | 2028 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Rack architecture | HGX | Oberon | Oberon | Oberon | Oberon | Oberon | Oberon | Kyber | Kyber |
| Process node | N4 | N4 | N4 | N3 | N3P | N3P | N3P | A16 | A16 |
| XPU Dies per rack | 32 | 144 | 144 | 144 | 144 | 144 | 144 | 288 | 576 |
| Power per XPU die (W) | 600 | 650 | 800 | 1,150 | 1,150 | 1,200 | 1,200 | 1,200 | 1,500 |
| 1GW of Data Center Power (W) | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 |
| PUE | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 |
| Power avail for AI Hardware, Net (kW) | 869,565 | 870,000 | 870,000 | 870,000 | 870,000 | 870,000 | 870,000 | 870,000 | 870,000 |
| Power per rack (kW) | 45 | 120 | 140 | 227 | 275 | 227 | 275 | 500 | 1000 |
| Number of racks perGW | 19,324 | 7,250 | 6,214 | 3,833 | 3,164 | 3,833 | 3,164 | 1,740 | 870 |
| Rack ASP (US$mn) | $1.3 | $3.3 | $4.3 | $7.0 | $8.8 | $7.0 | $8.8 | $16.1 | $35.0 |
| Customer sales per GW($bn) | $25.1 | $23.9 | $26.7 | $26.8 | $27.7 | $27.1 | $27.7 | $28.0 | $30.5 |
Source: UBS estimates
Figure 4: Delta sales driven by power supply/infra
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
| 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $280,971 | $423,454 | $648,365 | $881,931 | $1,060,710 |
| 25.3% | 50.7% | 53.1% | 36.0% | 20.3% |
| $37,365 | $34,103 | $34,451 | $36,173 | $38,706 |
| -13.7% | -8.7% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% |
| $181,215 | $261,805 | $347,649 | $430,547 | $486,912 |
| 80.0% | 44.5% | 32.8% | 23.8% | 13.1% |
| $55,334 | $62,706 | $67,214 | $73,936 | $79,111 |
| 5.1% | 13.3% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 7.0% |
| $554,886 | $782,070 | $1,097,681 | $1,422,589 | $1,665,440 |
| 31.8% | 40.9% | 40.4% | 29.6% | 17.1% |
Figure 5: Power supply leading the growth
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
High-end expect
Figure 6: Power supply as % of BOM rises from 1-1.5% to 1.8-2.4% upgrading to dedicated power racks
| NVIDIA Power Shelves | NVIDIA Power Shelves | NVIDIA Power Shelves | NVIDIA Power Shelves | NVIDIA Power Shelves | NVIDIA Power Racks | NVIDIA Power Racks | NVIDIA Power Racks | NVIDIA Power Racks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power Supply Content per rack (US$) | Hopper | Blackwell | BW Ultra | Rubin | Rubin Ultra | Rubin | RU Oberon | RU Kyber | Feynman |
| Number of racks perGW | 19,324 | 7,250 | 6,214 | 3,833 | 3,164 | 3,833 | 3,164 | 1,740 | 870 |
| PSU | $7,040 | $23,400 | $33,000 | $48,000 | $57,600 | ||||
| Power rack | $258,400 | $258,400 | $258,400 | $493,320 | |||||
| Power Shelf | $0 | $6,120 | $10,200 | $4,200 | $5,040 | ||||
| BBU/Supercap | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,375 | $1,650 | ||||
| Capacitor Shelf | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,020 | $1,224 | ||||
| Power Management Unit | $300 | $900 | $2,000 | $1,200 | $1,440 | ||||
| DC-DC Module | $960 | $2,520 | $2,700 | $3,600 | $4,320 | $10,800 | $10,800 | $21,600 | $43,200 |
| Busbar | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,500 | $6,000 | $7,200 | ||||
| Other (Powerwhip, Fans, Inner Busbar, Chassis) | $1,000 | $6,000 | $6,000 | $12,000 | $14,400 | $18,000 | $18,000 | $30,000 | $50,000 |
| Total power supply content (US$) | $287,200 | $287,200 | $310,000 | $586,520 | |||||
| Power Rack to IT Hardware Ratio: | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||||
| Power Supply Content per rack (US$) | $12,300 | $41,940 | $57,400 | $77,395 | $92,874 | $159,556 | $191,467 | $310,000 | $586,520 |
| %of the BOM | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| Power Supply TAM per GW(US$mn) | $237.7 | $304.1 | $356.7 | $296.6 | $293.8 | $611.5 | $605.7 | $539.4 | $510.3 |
| Power rack content (42-48U) (US$) | Hopper | Blackwell | BW Ultra | Rubin | Rubin Ultra | Rubin | RU Oberon | RU Kyber | Feynman |
| AC-DC PSU Modules | $72,000 | $72,000 | $72,000 | $144,000 | |||||
| HVDC power shelf | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $30,000 | |||||
| Power capacitance shelf (supercap/EDLC) | $32,000 | $32,000 | $32,000 | $64,000 | |||||
| BBU shelf | $88,000 | $88,000 | $88,000 | $176,000 | |||||
| PMC | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $10,000 | |||||
| 800V busbar | $6,000 | $6,000 | $6,000 | $7,800 | |||||
| AC PDU | $6,400 | $6,400 | $6,400 | $8,320 | |||||
| DC PDU | $14,000 | $14,000 | $14,000 | $18,200 | |||||
| Power rack chassis | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $15,000 | |||||
| Others | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $20,000 | |||||
| Total power rack content (US$) | $258,400 | $258,400 | $258,400 | $493,320 | |||||
| Power Rack to IT Hardware Ratio: | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||||
| Power Supply Content per rack (US$) | $143,556 | $172,267 | $258,400 | $493,320 |
Source: UBS estimates
Figure 7: NVIDIA power TAM growing at a 65% CAGR to US$26.3bn in 2029E
| Rack Units | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HGX | 190,530 | 232,085 | 269,280 | 296,207 | 325,828 | |
| Blackwell | 20,690 | 17,778 | 1,863 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blackwell Ultra | 6,344 | 48,608 | 27,537 | 5,000 | 0 | |
| Rubin Power Rack% | 0% | 5% | 20% | 25% | 30% | |
| Rubin Integrated Power | 0 | 5,843 | 47,061 | 22,500 | 3,500 | |
| Rubin Power Rack | 0 | 308 | 11,765 | 7,500 | 1,500 | |
| Rubin Ultra Power Rack% | 0% | 0% | 30% | 40% | 50% | |
| Rubin Ultra Integrated Power | 0 | 0 | 1,260 | 36,000 | 10,000 | |
| Rubin Ultra Power Rack | 0 | 0 | 540 | 24,000 | 10,000 | |
| Feynman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,000 | 25,000 | |
| Total | 27,034 | 72,536 | 90,026 | 96,000 | 50,000 | |
| Power Content (US$) | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| HGX | $12,300 | $14,760 | $17,712 | $21,254 | $25,505 | |
| Blackwell | $41,940 | $41,940 | $41,940 | $41,940 | $41,940 | |
| Blackwell Ultra | $57,400 | $57,400 | $57,400 | $57,400 | $57,400 | |
| Rubin Integrated Power | $77,395 | $77,395 | $77,395 | $77,395 | $77,395 | |
| Rubin Power Rack | $159,556 | $159,556 | $159,556 | $159,556 | $159,556 | |
| Rubin Ultra Integrated Power | $92,874 | $92,874 | $92,874 | $92,874 | $92,874 | |
| Rubin Ultra Power Rack | $191,467 | $191,467 | $191,467 | $191,467 | $191,467 | |
| Feynman | $586,520 | $586,520 | $586,520 | $586,520 | $586,520 | |
| Total NVIDIA Power Supply TAM (US$mn) | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 25-29 CAGR |
| HGX | $2,344 | $3,426 | $4,769 | $6,296 | $8,310 | |
| Blackwell | $868 | $746 | $78 | $0 | $0 | |
| Blackwell Ultra | $364 | $2,790 | $1,581 | $287 | $0 | |
| Rubin Integrated Power | $0 | $452 | $3,642 | $1,741 | $271 | |
| Rubin Power Rack | $0 | $49 | $1,877 | $1,197 | $239 | |
| Rubin Ultra Integrated Power | $0 | $0 | $117 | $3,343 | $929 | |
| Rubin Ultra Power Rack | $0 | $0 | $103 | $4,595 | $1,915 | |
| Feynman | $0 | $0 | $0 | $587 | $14,663 | |
| Total NVIDIA Rack Power Supply TAM | $3,575 | $7,463 | $12,168 | $18,046 | $26,327 | 65% |
| YoY Growth | 109% | 63% | 48% | 46% | ||
| Delta TAM at 60% share | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 25-29 CAGR |
| HGX | $1,406 | $2,055 | $2,862 | $3,777 | $4,986 | |
| Blackwell | $521 | $447 | $47 | $0 | $0 | |
| Blackwell Ultra | $218 | $1,674 | $948 | $172 | $0 | |
| Rubin Integrated Power | $0 | $271 | $2,185 | $1,045 | $163 | |
| Rubin Power Rack | $0 | $29 | $1,126 | $718 | $144 | |
| Rubin Ultra Integrated Power | $0 | $0 | $70 | $2,006 | $557 | |
| Rubin Ultra Power Rack | $0 | $0 | $62 | $2,757 | $1,149 | |
| Feynman | $0 | $0 | $0 | $352 | $8,798 | |
| Total NVIDIA Delta Opportunity | $2,145 | $4,478 | $7,301 | $10,828 | $15,796 | 65% |
| YoY Growth | 109% | 63% | 48% | 46% | ||
| %of Delta | 11% | 18% | 21% | 24% | 31% |
Source: UBS estimates
Figure 8: Delta's GMs could be slightly light in Q2 but broadly keeping the 36-37% recent range
| Margin Drivers | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 | Q126 | Q226E | Q326E | Q426E | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue (NT$mn) | 118,919 4% | 124,035 4% | 150,318 21% | 161,613 8% | 159,353 -1% | 183,257 15% | 211,294 15% | 228,167 8% | 554,886 32% | 782,070 41% | 1,097,681 40% | 1,422,589 30% | 1,665,440 17% |
| Sequential change (%) Power Supply | 34.9% | 40.0% | 39.3% | 38.3% | 40.1% | 39.3% | 41.0% | 41.3% | 38.2% | 40.5% | 41.2% | 40.7% | 40.8% |
| Mobility (EV) | 11.0% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Infrastructure | 33.7% | 34.9% | 32.9% | 33.1% | 36.4% | 34.3% | 34.4% | 33.8% | 33.5% | 34.6% | 32.7% | 32.8% | 32.3% |
| Automation | 29.6% | 34.9% | 33.0% | 33.9% | 36.0% | 36.1% | 36.0% | 35.8% | 32.9% | 36.0% | 35.8% | 35.8% | 35.8% |
| Delta BlendedGM% | 31.8% | 35.5% | 34.9% | 34.6% | 37.0% | 36.0% | 37.2% | 37.2% | 34.3% | 36.9% | 37.3% | 37.4% | 37.4% |
| Gross Profit (NT$mn) | $37,788 | $44,049 | $52,416 | $55,903 | $58,961 | $65,902 | $78,527 | $84,898 | $190,157 | $288,288 | $409,134 | $531,464 | $623,575 |
| Opex (NT$mn) | -$23,752 | -$25,380 | -$27,607 | -$29,485 | -$30,544 | -$32,853 | -$36,181 | -$37,926 | -$106,224 | -$137,504 | -$176,342 | -$224,224 | -$257,477 |
| Opex/Sales% | 20.0% | 20.5% | 18.4% | 18.2% | 19.2% | 17.9% | 17.1% | 16.6% | 19.1% | 17.6% | 16.1% | 15.8% | 15.5% |
| Power Supply | 17.1% | 20.8% | 21.4% | 20% | 22.1% | 20.0% | |||||||
| Mobility (EV) | -2.5% | -0.6% | -0.2% | -11% | -9.3% | 0.0% | |||||||
| Infrastructure | 10.6% | 14.8% | 16.5% | 18% | 19.7% | 15.7% | |||||||
| Automation DeltaOpM% | 3.3% 11.8% | 1.4% 15.1% | -0.9% 16.5% | 0% 16.3% | 0.8% 17.8% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 20.6% | 1.0% 15.1% | 19.3% | 21.2% | 21.6% | 22.0% |
| Operating Profit (NT$mn) | $14,036 | $18,669 | $24,809 | $26,418 | $28,417 | $33,049 | $42,346 | $46,973 | $83,932 | $150,784 | $232,792 | $307,241 | $366,098 |
| Minority Interest | -$1,812 | -$1,386 | -$2,316 | -$2,314 | -$3,279 | -$2,750 | -$2,779 | -$2,777 | -$7,828 | -$11,585 | -$11,932 | -$11,932 | -$11,932 |
| Net Income | $10,231 | $13,948 | $18,606 | $17,324 | $20,556 | $24,322 | $31,591 | $35,226 | $60,108 | $111,695 | $175,325 | $233,768 | $279,970 |
| EPS (NT$) | $3.94 | $5.37 | $7.16 | $6.67 | $7.91 | $9.36 | $12.16 | $13.56 | $23.14 | $43.00 | $67.50 | $90.00 | $107.78 |
| Gross Profit %of Total | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 | Q126 | Q226E | Q326E | Q426E | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
| Power Supply | 55% | 59% | 57% | 55% | 58% | 57% | 60% | 62% | 56% | 60% | 65% | 68% | 69% |
| Mobility (EV) | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Infrastructure | 31% | 27% | 33% | 35% | 32% | 33% | 31% | 30% | 32% | 31% | 28% | 27% | 25% |
| Automation | 11% | 11% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 9: Sales and margins have improved with the ramp in server power and infrastructure
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 10: UBS annual P&L for Delta - strong sales growth continues
| Ticker Shares outstanding (mn) | Ticker Shares outstanding (mn) | 2308.TW 2,597.5 | Current Price (NT$) Mkt cap (US$ mn) | Current Price (NT$) Mkt cap (US$ mn) | Current Price (NT$) Mkt cap (US$ mn) | $1,855 $163,337 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E 2027E | 2028E |
| Revenues (NT$ mn) | $384,443 | $401,227 | $421,148 | $554,886 | $782,070 $1,097,681 | $1,422,589 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 4.4% | 5.0% | 31.8% | 40.9% 40.4% | 29.6% | |
| Gross profit (NT$mn) | $110,773 | $117,213 | $136,580 | $190,157 | $288,288 $409,134 | $531,464 |
| GM (%) | 28.8% | 29.2% | 32.4% | 34.3% | 36.9% 37.3% | 37.4% |
| Operating profit (NT$mn) | $41,439 | $40,950 | $47,652 | $83,932 | $150,784 $232,792 | $307,241 |
| OPM (%) | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 15.1% | 19.3% 21.2% | 21.6% |
| Net profit (NT$ mn) | $32,666 | $33,393 | $35,229 | $60,108 | $111,695 $175,325 | $233,768 |
| EPS (NT$) | $12.58 | $12.86 | $13.56 | $23.14 | $43.00 $67.50 | $90.00 |
| EPS growth (%) | 2% | 5% | 71% | 86% 57% | 33% | |
| P/E (x) | 147.5 | 144.3 | 136.8 | 80.2 | 43.1 27.5 | 20.6 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% 1.2% | 1.8% |
| P/B (x) | 21.4 | 19.9 | 17.2 | 14.8 | 11.8 9.2 | 7.2 |
| ROE (%) | 17.5% | 16.8% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 30.9% 35.6% | 35.9% |
| Quarters | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 | Q126 | Q226E Q326E | Q426E |
| Revenues (NT$ mn) | $124,035 | $150,318 | $161,613 | $159,353 | $183,257 $211,294 | $228,167 |
| QoQ Growth (%) | 21.2% | 7.5% | -1.4% | 15.0% 15.3% | 8.0% | |
| Gross profit (NT$mn) | $44,049 | $52,416 | $55,903 | $58,961 | $65,902 $78,527 | $84,898 |
| GM (%) | 35.5% | 34.9% | 34.6% | 37.0% | 36.0% 37.2% | 37.2% |
| Operating profit (NT$mn) | $18,669 | $24,809 | $26,418 | $28,417 | $33,049 $42,346 | $46,973 |
| OPM (%) | 15.1% | 16.5% | 16.3% | 17.8% | 18.0% 20.0% | 20.6% |
| Net profit (NT$ mn) | $13,948 | $18,606 | $17,324 | $20,556 | $24,322 $31,591 | $35,226 |
| EPS (NT$) | $5.37 | $7.16 | $6.67 | $7.91 | $9.36 $12.16 | $13.56 |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates. Note: 2025 EPS is based on the reported number.
Cash flow summary
Delta's 2025 capex reached NT$46.1bn, with around 60% of the budget spent on equipment. Management guided 2026 capex to increase 10%+, with equipment spending primarily supporting AI and infrastructure investments as well as overseas expansions in China, Thailand, and the US. The company noted that capacity remains tight but sufficient to support demand over the next 1-2 years, and is planning for capacity to meet longer-term growth.
Figure 11: Mild positive free cash flows continue for Delta
| Annual (NT$mn) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 21-25 Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $314,671 | $384,443 | $401,227 | $421,148 | $554,886 | $782,070 | $1,097,681 | $415,275 |
| Capital spending | $22,815 | $20,981 | $27,778 | $33,430 | $45,950 | $46,500 | $51,150 | $30,191 |
| Capex/revenue (%) | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.2% |
| Dep and amort | $17,151 | $18,936 | $21,590 | $21,095 | $24,022 | $29,489 | $33,020 | $20,559 |
| Depr/revenue (%) | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.0% |
| Operating cash flow | $28,319 | $46,529 | $71,086 | $72,895 | $98,474 | $113,790 | $221,173 | $63,461 |
| Free cash flow | $5,505 | $25,548 | $43,309 | $39,465 | $52,525 | $67,290 | $170,023 | $33,270 |
| FCF and Dividends | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 21-25 Avg |
| FCF / share (NT$) | $2.12 | $9.84 | $16.67 | $15.19 | $20.22 | $25.91 | $65.46 | $12.81 |
| FCF / EV Yield (%) | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield (%) | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Dividend/share (NT$) | $5.50 | $5.50 | $9.84 | $6.43 | $7.82 | $11.60 | $21.56 | $7.02 |
| Payout rate (%) | 56% | 53% | 78% | 50% | 52% | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Dividend amount (NT$) | $14,286 | $14,286 | $25,560 | $16,702 | $20,313 | $30,131 | $55,991 | $18,230 |
| Pre-Dividend close (NT$) | $297.50 | $221.50 | $344.50 | $390.50 | $428.00 | $2,230.00 | $1,855.00 | |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates. Note: Capital spending includes both purchase/sales of fixed assets.
Figure 12: Op CF rising with the growth acceleration
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Valuation
We view the stock as more reasonably valued on the 25% pullback since late May and now 28/21x 2027/28E EPS, and stay positive on stronger CSP capex and rise in power/ cooling requirements. We fine-tune 2026E reflecting the lower Q2 sales/margins but lift 2027/28E EPS by 5-6% to NT$67.5/NT$90 vs. street NT$64/NT$103, lifting PT from NT $2,600 to NT$2,750 on same 35x 27-28E average P/E in line with global/China peers rerating to 30-40x, reflecting ~2 SD vs. its 5y avg. range. We still view Delta as well positioned in AI power & cooling to deliver strong growth at GMs near recent highs.
Figure 14: Delta valuation vs global peers
| Market cap | 6-month ADT | Price 15-Jul | Price target | EPS (LC$) | Earnings | EPS (LC$) | growth (%) | PE (x) | P/B (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) | ROE (%) | Div Yld (%) | Div Yld (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company | Ticker | (US$m) | (US$m) | (LC$) | (LC$) | Rating | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2027E 2028E | 2026E | 2027E | 2026E | 2027E | 2026E | 2027E |
| Asian IDC power equipment | |||||||||||||||||||
| Delta | 2308.TW | 152,389 | 724 | 1,890 | 2,750 | Buy | 43.00 | 67.50 | 90.00 | 85.8 | 57.0 | 33.3 | 28.0 | 21.0 13.4 | 9.7 | 35.2 | 40.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Delta Thailand | DELTA.BK | 117,804 | 153 | 311 | - | NC | 1.96 | 3.13 | 4.00 | 28.9 | 59.5 | 28.1 99.5 | 77.7 | 39.0 | 30.7 | 26.4 | 33.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| LiteOn | 2301.TW | 15,565 | 189 | 216 | - | NC | 6.60 | 8.68 | 12.03 | 28.1 | 31.6 | 38.6 24.9 | 18.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 16.4 | 21.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Average Asian IDC | 95,252 | 355 | 50.8 | 38.9 19.3 | 15.2 | 26.0 | 31.6 | 1.1 | 1.5 | ||||||||||
| Global IDC power equipment | |||||||||||||||||||
| Vertiv | VRT.N | 115,876 | 454 | 304 | 370 | Buy | 5.72 | 8.16 | 9.67 | 56.6 | 43.0 | 19.0 | 33.8 28.6 | 20.4 | 13.9 | 51.8 | 49.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Eaton | ETN.N | 162,967 | 261 | 416 | 360 | Neutral | 13.41 | 15.38 | 17.12 | 10.7 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 27.0 24.3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 24.8 | 25.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Schneider | SCHN.PA | 179,211 | 300 | 275 | 310 | Buy | 9.19 | 11.07 | 12.84 | 13.2 | 20.1 | 15.6 | 22.6 20.1 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 22.9 | 24.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Average Global IDC | 152,685 | 338 | 27.8 | 24.3 11.1 | 8.6 | 33.2 | 33.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | ||||||||||
| China IDC power equipment | |||||||||||||||||||
| Kehua | 002335.SZ | 3,595 | 267 | 33 | 46.1 | Buy | 0.91 | 1.39 | 1.76 | 62.9 | 52.7 | 26.4 | 23.4 | 18.5 3.6 | 3.3 | 10.3 | 14.6 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| Envicool | 002837.SZ | 12,750 | 724 | 68 | 123.0 | Buy | 1.23 | 3.51 | 4.51 | 198.8 | 185.9 | 28.6 | 19.3 | 15.0 17.8 | 9.8 | 37.6 | 65.4 | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Zhongheng Electronic | 002364.SZ | 4,056 | 308 | 49 | - | NC | 0.28 | 0.43 | 0.69 | n.a. | 51.8 | 62.4 | 114.6 70.6 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Kstar | 002518.SZ | 3,313 | 109 | 39 | - | NC | 1.07 | 1.56 | 2.20 | 58 | 45.4 | 40.9 | 24.7 17.5 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 13.2 | 16.7 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Hopewind | 603063.SH | 2,510 | 187 | 37 | - | NC | 1.32 | 1.48 | 1.70 | 32 | 12.5 | 14.8 | 24.7 21.5 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 0.5 | - |
| Megmeet | 002851.SZ | 14,484 | 496 | 169 | - | NC | 0.54 | 1.39 | 2.75 | -34 | 156.4 | 96.8 | 120.9 61.4 | 15.0 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Honor Electronic | 300870.SZ | 5,619 | 245 | 249 | - | NC | 2.16 | 2.77 | 3.99 | 11 | 28.3 | 44.1 | 89.9 | 62.4 15.8 | 11.1 | 14.0 | 15.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average China IDC | 6,774 | 362 | 93.5 | 59.2 10.1 | 7.7 | 14.0 | 18.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 | ||||||||||
| Global Average | 60,780 | 340 | 50.3 | 35.1 12.5 | 9.6 | 21.2 | 26.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
Source: Eikon estimates, UBS estimates
Figure 13: Net cash/share also increasing
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 15: Delta has re-rated the past year to 35x FWD P/E and 28x 2027 P/E
Source: FactSet, UBS
Figure 17: UBS Delta base / upside / downside scenarios
| New UBS | New UBS | New UBS | Prior UBS | Prior UBS | Prior UBS | Upside Case | Upside Case | Upside Case | Downside Case | Downside Case | Downside Case | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| Sales YoY Growth Gross Profit | $554,886 31.8% $190,157 | $782,070 40.9% $288,288 | $1,097,681 40.4% $409,134 | $1,422,589 29.6% $531,464 | $777,704 40.2% $288,437 | $1,051,721 35.2% $390,190 | $1,354,900 28.8% $504,278 | $797,712 43.8% $295,649 | $1,152,565 44.5% $435,354 | $1,422,589 23.4% $531,464 | $742,967 33.9% $266,444 | $933,029 25.6% $319,773 | $1,225,561 31.4% $423,909 |
| GM% | 34.3% | 36.9% | 37.3% | 37.4% | 37.1% | 37.1% | 37.2% | 37.1% | 37.8% | 37.4% | 35.9% | 34.3% | 34.6% |
| Opex Op Profit | $106,224 $83,932 | $137,504 $150,784 | $176,342 $232,792 | $224,224 $307,241 | $136,488 $151,948 | $168,972 $221,218 | $213,571 $290,707 | $140,116 $155,533 | $184,718 $250,635 | $224,224 $307,241 | $134,066 $132,378 | $163,117 $156,657 | $208,696 $215,212 |
| OpM% | 15.1% | 19.3% | 21.2% | 21.6% | 19.5% | 21.0% | 21.5% | 19.5% | 21.7% | 21.6% | 17.8% | 16.8% | 17.6% |
| Non-Op Pretax Tax rate Tax Minority/other Net income EPS | $3,934 $87,866 -23% ($19,930) ($7,828) $60,108 $23.14 | $6,990 $157,774 -22% ($34,495) ($11,585) $111,695 $43.00 | $5,753 $238,545 -22% ($51,287) ($11,932) $175,325 $67.50 | $5,753 $312,993 -22% ($67,294) ($11,932) $233,768 $90.00 | $6,990 $158,938 -22% ($34,745) ($11,585) $112,609 $43.35 | $5,753 $226,971 -22% ($48,799) ($11,932) $166,240 $64.00 | $5,753 $296,459 -22% ($63,739) ($11,932) $220,788 $85.00 | $6,990 $162,523 -22% ($35,533) ($11,585) $115,405 | $5,753 $256,388 -22% ($55,123) ($11,932) $189,332 | $5,753 $312,993 -22% ($67,294) ($11,932) $233,768 | $6,990 $139,368 -22% ($30,471) ($11,585) $97,313 | $5,753 $162,409 -22% ($34,918) ($11,932) $115,559 $44.49 | $5,753 $220,965 -22% ($47,508) ($11,932) $161,525 $62.18 |
| $44.43 | $72.89 | $90.00 | $37.46 | ||||||||||
| Shares | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 |
| EPS vs. base case | 3.3% | 69.5% | 109.3% | -12.9% | 3.5% | 44.6% | |||||||
| Current Price | $1,855 | $1,855 | $1,855 | ||||||||||
| P/E | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 30 | 30 | ||
| Implied Share Price | |||||||||||||
| Upside/Downside | $2,750 48.2% | $2,750 48.2% | $2,750 48.2% | $2,600 | $2,600 | $2,600 | $3,150 69.8% | $3,150 69.8% | $3,150 69.8% | $1,600 -13.7% | $1,600 -13.7% | $1,600 -13.7% |
Source: UBS estimates. Note: 2025 EPS is based on the reported number.
Figure 16: Delta share price has re-rated beyond its earnings anticipating further growth/upgrades
Source: FactSet, UBS
Delta Electronics (2308.TW)
| Income Statement (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | %ch | 12/27E | %ch | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 401,227 | 421,148 | 554,886 | 782,070 | 40.9 | 1,097,681 | 40.4 | 1,422,589 | 1,665,440 | 1,880,285 |
| Gross profit | 117,213 | 136,580 | 190,157 | 288,288 | 51.6 | 409,134 | 41.9 | 531,464 | 623,575 | 704,266 |
| EBITDA (UBS) | 62,540 | 68,746 | 107,954 | 180,273 | 67.0 | 265,812 | 47.5 | 344,025 | 406,927 | 458,795 |
| Depreciation & amortisation | (21,590) | (21,095) | (24,022) | (29,489) | -22.8 | (33,020) | -12.0 | (36,784) | (40,828) | (45,201) |
| EBIT (UBS) | 40,950 | 47,652 | 83,932 | 150,784 | 79.7 | 232,792 | 54.4 | 307,241 | 366,098 | 413,594 |
| Associates & investment income | 5,507 | (916) | 2,131 | 5,277 | 147.6 | 4,040 | -23.4 | 4,040 | 4,040 | 4,040 |
| Other non-operating income | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net interest | 899 | 1,859 | 1,501 | 1,713 | 14.1 | 1,713 | 0.0 | 1,713 | 1,713 | 1,713 |
| Exceptionals (incl goodwill) | 1,286 | 2,720 | 302 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pre-tax profit | 48,642 | 51,316 | 87,866 | 157,774 | 79.6 | 238,545 | 51.2 | 312,993 | 371,851 | 419,347 |
| Tax | (9,762) | (10,925) | (19,930) | (34,495) | -73.1 | (51,287) | -48.7 | (67,294) | (79,948) | (90,160) |
| Profit after tax | 38,880 | 40,391 | 67,936 | 123,280 | 81.5 | 187,258 | 51.9 | 245,700 | 291,903 | 329,187 |
| Preference dividends Minorities | 0 (5,488) | 0 (5,163) | 0 (7,828) | 0 (11,585) | - -48.0 | 0 (11,932) | - -3.0 | 0 (11,932) | 0 (11,932) | 0 (11,932) |
| Extraordinary | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| items Net earnings (local | 33,393 | 175,325 | 57.0 | 233,768 | 279,970 | 317,255 | ||||
| GAAP) | 35,229 | 60,108 | 111,695 | 85.8 | ||||||
| Net earnings (UBS) | 32,107 | 32,508 | 59,806 | 111,695 | 86.8 | 175,325 | 57.0 | 233,768 | 279,970 | 317,255 |
| Tax rate (%) | 20.1 | 21.3 | 22.7 | 21.9 | -3.6 | 21.5 | -1.7 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| Per Share (NT$) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | %ch | 12/27E | %ch | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) | 12.36 | 12.52 | 23.02 | 43.00 | 86.8 | 67.50 | 57.0 | 90.00 | 107.78 | 122.14 |
| EPS (local GAAP, diluted) | 12.86 | 13.56 | 23.14 | 43.00 | 85.8 | 67.50 | 57.0 | 90.00 | 107.78 | 122.14 |
| EPS (UBS, basic) | 12.36 | 12.52 | 23.02 | 43.00 | 67.50 | 57.0 | 90.00 | 122.14 | ||
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 9.84 | 86.8 | 21.56 | 85.8 | 33.84 | 107.78 | ||||
| Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) 1 | 20.67 | 6.43 20.64 | 7.00 | 11.60 | 65.7 68.4 | 80.21 | 47.6 | 104.16 | 45.11 123.50 | 54.03 139.54 |
| Book value per share | 76.67 | 88.58 | 32.27 103.20 | 54.35 141.34 | 37.0 | 194.19 | 37.4 | 257.15 | 326.49 | 401.14 |
| Average shares (diluted) | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 | 0.0 | 2,598 | 0.0 | 2,598 | 2,598 | 2,598 |
| Balance Sheet (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | %ch | 12/27E | %ch | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Cash and equivalents | 92,360 167,598 | 121,793 189,132 | 155,113 240,668 | 192,271 339,861 | 24.0 41.2 | 306,304 332,152 | 59.3 | 332,028 534,270 | 435,661 623,527 | 556,806 703,167 |
| Other current assets Total current assets | 259,958 | 310,925 | 395,781 | 532,133 | -2.3 20.0 | 866,298 | 1,059,188 | 1,259,973 | ||
| Net tangible fixed assets | 98,002 | 115,710 | 142,040 | 159,051 | 34.5 12.0 | 638,456 177,181 | 11.4 | 196,662 | 217,725 | 240,604 |
| Net intangible fixed assets | 78,544 | 78,783 | 75,326 | 79,093 | 5.0 | 83,047 | 5.0 | 87,200 | 91,560 | 96,138 |
| Investments / other assets | 21,242 | 26,480 | 26,472 | 29,831 | 12.7 | 33,407 | 12.0 | 37,220 | 41,294 | 45,656 |
| 932,091 | 16.5 | 1,409,767 | ||||||||
| Total assets | 457,747 | 531,898 | 639,619 | 800,108 | 25.1 | 1,187,379 | 1,642,371 | |||
| Trade payables & other ST liabilities | 122,750 | 139,305 | 207,301 | 275,498 | 32.9 | 276,875 | 0.5 | 374,781 | 422,612 | 466,225 |
| Short term debt Total current liabilities | 3,335 126,085 | 1,918 141,223 | 2,364 209,665 | 2,364 277,862 | 0.0 32.5 | 2,364 279,239 | 0.0 0.5 | 2,364 377,145 | 2,364 424,976 | 2,364 468,589 |
| Long term debt | 37,506 | 54,800 | 47,861 | 52,647 | 10.0 | 57,912 | 10.0 | 63,703 | 70,074 | 77,081 |
| 51,420 | 56,309 | 0.0 | 56,703 | 0.0 | 56,703 | 56,703 | ||||
| Other long term liabilities | 0 | 56,703 | 56,703 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 56,703 0 | ||
| Preferred shares Total liabilities (incl pref shares) | 215,011 | 0 252,332 | 0 314,230 | 0 387,213 | - | 393,854 | 1.7 | 497,552 | 551,753 | 602,373 |
| Common s/h equity | 199,164 | 230,087 | 268,058 | 367,148 | 23.2 37.0 | 504,423 | 37.4 | 667,946 | 848,065 | 1,041,980 |
| Minority interests | 43,572 | 49,478 | 57,331 | 45,746 | -20.2 | 33,814 | -26.1 | 21,882 | 9,949 | (1,983) |
| Total liabilities & equity | 457,747 | 531,898 | 639,619 | 800,108 | 25.1 | 932,091 | 16.5 | 1,187,379 | 1,409,767 | 1,642,371 |
| 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | %ch | 12/29E | 12/30E | ||||
| Cash Flow (NT$m) Net income (before pref divs) | 12/23 33,393 | 35,229 | 60,108 | 111,695 | %ch 85.8 | 175,325 | 57.0 | 12/28E 233,768 | 279,970 | 317,255 |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 21,590 | 21,095 | 24,022 | 29,489 | 22.8 | 33,020 | 12.0 | 36,784 | 40,828 | 45,201 |
| Net change in working capital | 9,359 | (4,979) | 16,460 | (30,996) | - | 9,086 | - | (104,211) | (41,427) | (36,027) |
| Other operating | 6,745 | 21,550 | (2,116) | 3,603 | - | 3,742 | 3.9 | 3,537 | 3,336 | |
| Operating cash | 71,086 | 72,895 | 98,474 | 113,790 | 15.6 | 221,173 | 94.4 | 169,878 | 282,708 | 3,141 329,571 |
| flow Tangible capital | (27,778) | (33,430) | (45,950) 0 | (46,500) | -1.2 | (51,150) | -10.0 - | (56,265) | (61,892) | (68,081) |
| expenditure | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Intangible capital expenditure disposals | 0 (5,541) | 0 (4,739) | (135) | - | 0 0 | - | 0 | 0 | ||
| Net (acquisitions) & Other investing | (183) | (2,191) | (7,130) | 0 | - - | - | 0 0 | 0 | ||
| Investing cash | (33,502) | 0 (46,500) | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | (61,892) | 0 (68,081) | |||
| flow | (40,360) | (53,214) | -48.3 | (51,150) | -10.0 -85.8 | (56,265) | (140,345) | |||
| Equity dividends paid | (25,560) 0 | (16,702) | (20,313) 0 | (30,131) | (55,991) 0 | - | (87,888) 0 | (117,184) 0 | 0 | |
| Share issues / (buybacks) | 0 | - | 0 | |||||||
| Other financing | 4,755 | (2,967) | 21,774 | 0 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 0 | |
| Change in debt & pref shares Financing cash flow | 10,327 (10,478) | 8,552 | (10,862) (9,401) | 0 (30,131) | - -220.5 | 0 (55,991) | - -85.8 | 0 (87,888) | 0 (117,184) | (140,345) |
| Cash flow inc/(dec) in cash | 27,107 | (11,118) 21,417 | 37,159 | 3.6 | 25,725 | |||||
| FX / non cash items | 1,947 | 35,859 (2,538) | 0 | - | 114,032 0 | 206.9 - | 0 | 103,632 0 | 121,145 0 | |
| Balance sheet inc/(dec) in cash | 29,054 | 8,015 29,433 | 37,159 | 11.5 | 114,032 | 25,725 | ||||
| 33,320 | 206.9 | 103,632 | 121,145 |
Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts. 1 Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) is calculated using UBS net income adding back depreciation and amortization.
Delta Electronics (2308.TW)
| Valuation (x) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (local GAAP, diluted) | 24.8 | 26.5 | 26.2 | 44.0 | 28.0 | 21.0 | 17.5 | 15.5 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) | 25.8 | 28.7 | 26.3 | 44.0 | 28.0 | 21.0 | 17.5 | 15.5 |
| P/CEPS | 15.4 | 17.4 | 18.8 | 34.8 | 23.6 | 18.1 | 15.3 | 13.5 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield% | 5.2 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| Dividend yield (net)% | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| P/BV | 4.2 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 13.4 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 4.7 |
| EV/revenues (core) | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) | 12.7 | 12.9 | 13.8 | 26.6 | 17.6 | 13.5 | 11.1 | 9.6 |
| EV/EBIT (core) | 19.3 | 18.6 | 17.8 | 31.8 | 20.1 | 15.1 | 12.4 | 10.7 |
| EV/OpFCF (core) | 13.8 | 14.3 | 15.0 | 28.3 | 18.2 | 14.2 | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| EV/op. invested capital | 4.6 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 21.8 | 18.5 | 14.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 |
| Enterprise value (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Market cap. | 827,149 | 933,285 | 1,574,188 | 4,909,351 | 4,909,351 | 4,909,351 | 4,909,351 | 4,909,351 |
| Net debt (cash) | (51,519) | (65,074) | (104,887) | (137,260) | (246,028) | (265,961) | (363,223) | (477,360) |
| Buy out of minorities | 41,075 | 46,525 | 53,405 | 51,539 | 39,780 | 27,848 | 15,915 | 3,983 |
| Pension provisions/other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total enterprise value | 816,705 | 914,735 | 1,522,706 | 4,823,629 | 4,703,103 | 4,671,238 | 4,562,043 | 4,435,973 |
| Non core assets | (25,159) | (27,940) | (30,879) | (30,879) | (30,879) | (30,879) | (30,879) | (30,879) |
| Core enterprise value | 791,545 | 886,795 | 1,491,826 | 4,792,750 | 4,672,224 | 4,640,358 | 4,531,164 | 4,405,094 |
| Growth (%) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Revenue | 4.4 | 5.0 | 31.8 | 40.9 | 40.4 | 29.6 | 17.1 | 12.9 |
| EBITDA (UBS) | 3.6 | 9.9 | 57.0 | 67.0 | 47.4 | 29.4 | 18.3 | 12.7 |
| EBIT (UBS) | (1.2) | 16.4 | 76.1 | 79.7 | 54.4 | 32.0 | 19.2 | 13.0 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) | 1.4 | 1.3 | 84.0 | 86.8 | 57.0 | 33.3 | 19.8 | 13.3 |
| Net DPS | 78.9 | (34.7) | 8.9 | 65.7 | 85.8 | 57.0 | 33.3 | 19.8 |
| Margins & Profitability (%) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Gross profit margin | 29.2 | 32.4 | 34.3 | 36.9 | 37.3 | 37.4 | 37.4 | 37.5 |
| EBITDA margin | 15.6 | 16.3 | 19.5 | 23.1 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24.4 | 24.4 |
| EBIT (UBS) margin | 10.2 | 11.3 | 15.1 | 19.3 | 21.2 | 21.6 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
| Net earnings (UBS) margin | 8.0 | 7.7 | 14.3 | 16.0 | 16.4 | 16.8 | 16.9 | |
| ROIC (EBIT) | 23.9 | 26.6 | 10.8 43.9 | 68.6 | NM | NM | NM | NM |
| 72.1 | 74.5 | 68.2 | 66.7 | |||||
| ROIC post tax ROE (UBS) | 18.3 16.6 | 20.7 15.1 | 33.7 24.0 | 53.1 35.2 | 40.2 | 39.9 | 36.9 | 33.6 |
| Capital structure & Coverage (x) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Net debt / EBITDA | (0.8) | (0.9) | (1.0) | (0.8) | (0.9) | (0.8) | (0.9) | (1.0) |
| Net debt / total equity% | (21.2) | (23.3) | (32.2) | (33.2) | (45.7) | (38.6) | (42.3) | (45.9) |
| Net debt / (net debt + total equity)% | (26.9) | (30.3) | (47.6) | (49.8) | (84.2) | (62.7) | (73.4) | (84.8) |
| Net debt/EV% | (5.0) | (6.4) | (5.6) | (2.5) | (4.1) | (5.5) | (6.9) | (9.5) |
| Capex / depreciation% | 128.7 | 158.5 | 191.3 | 157.7 | 154.9 | 153.0 | 151.6 | 150.6 |
| Capex / revenue% | 6.9 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| EBIT / net interest | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Dividend cover (UBS) | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Div. payout ratio (UBS)% | 79.6 | 51.4 | 30.4 | 27.0 | 31.9 | 37.6 | 41.9 | 44.2 |
| Revenues by division (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Power supply | 248,257 | 224,270 | 280,971 | 423,454 | 648,365 | 881,931 | 1,060,710 | 1,224,058 |
| Passive components | 37,477 | 45,611 | 46,581 | 51,865 | 55,466 | 61,013 | 67,114 | 73,825 |
| IA | 39,600 | 34,736 | 36,712 | 45,908 | 48,531 | 53,384 | 57,121 | 59,977 |
| Networking | 26,121 | 26,381 | 28,584 | 31,298 | 35,328 | 38,154 | 41,206 | 44,503 |
| Others | 49,772 | 90,150 | 162,038 | 229,545 | 309,991 | 388,107 | 439,289 | 477,922 |
| Total | 401,227 | 421,148 | 554,886 | 782,070 | 1,097,681 | 1,422,589 | 1,665,440 | 1,880,285 |
| EBIT (UBS) by division (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/28E | 366,098 | 12/30E | |||
| Component & Systems | 40,950 | 47,652 | 12/25 83,932 | 12/26E 150,784 | 12/27E 232,792 | 307,241 | 12/29E | 413,594 |
| Others | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 40,950 | 47,652 | 83,932 | 150,784 | 232,792 | 307,241 | 366,098 | 413,594 |
Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.
Forecast returns
| Forecast price appreciation | 45.5% |
|---|---|
| Forecast dividend yield | 0.6% |
| Forecast stock return | 46.1% |
| Market return assumption | 6.3% |
| Forecast excess return | 39.8% |
Company Description
Delta Electronics provides computer switching power supply solutions, as well as video display and electronics components, for computers, smartphones, telecom and industrial products. Founded in 1971, the firm has production bases in Taiwan, China, Thailand and India. In 2023, its power electronics, infrastructure and automation segments contributed 62%, 25% and 13% of revenue, respectively.
UBS EPS and Consensus EPS
The UBS EPS is an adjusted diluted EPS metric. It is calculated using the UBS analyst's interpretation of earnings suitable for valuation purposes divided by the diluted number of shares. This may differ to the way the consensus EPS metric has been calculated.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
We base our price target on PE multiple valuation.
Delta's businesses include SPS and components for a variety of end-applications, video displays and data networking subsystem and system products. Any changes in these endmarkets could affect our forecasts for Delta. Investment risk could increase/decrease on any deviation from our expectations for end-market demand and competition.
Downside risks for Delta include: severe supply chain constraints; weaker-than-expected PC/ server demand; a slower-than-expected IA recovery; and a slower ramp of 5G in 2022.
Quantitative Research Review
UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.
Delta Electronics
| Question | Response |
|---|---|
| 1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) | 5 |
| 4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 5. What's driving the difference? | |
| 6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 7. What's driving the difference? | |
| 8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the next three months? | No Catalyst |
| 9. Is there an actual or approximate date for the catalyst? | |
| 10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approximate date? | |
| 11. What is the catalyst? |
Required Disclosures
This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".
For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 15 July 2026 11:11 AM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts coauthor research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses, please see the Quantitative Research Review Addendum at the back of this report, where applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/ quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quantanswers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.