PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_京元電2449_20260807_original.pdf
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原始內容
King Yuan Electronics
Riding on expanding TAM of Cloud AI volume even with less growth in test time
Sales growth to accelerate in Q4 after softer Q3
We forecast KYEC's Q3 sales to grow high single digits QoQ, below consensus estimate of 16-17% QoQ. Q3 gross margin may also decline to 38-39% from 39.5% in Q2, due to higher electricity and labor cost, and 1% dilution from the new Singapore fab. The major Cloud AI accelerators are ramping up in Q3, albeit still in early stage. We expect multiple Cloud AI accelerator programs to ramp meaningfully in Q4, to lift sales growth to 15-20% QoQ. We estimate Q4 GM to also rise to 42-43% with higher utilization and lower utility cost.
Larger Cloud AI TAM to support 2027E sales growth of 45%
Looking ahead, KYEC has planned clean room construction through end of 2027, reflecting the rising testing demand from probing and final test from growing units of server CPU, accelerators, networking etc. On final test time, the content for new major Cloud AI accelerator may be flat to up slightly vs prior generation based on our estimate, likely given the tight testing capacity and limited architectural change. Net, we forecast KYEC's sales to grow 45% in 2027E after 36% growth in 2026E.
Diversifying footprint in Singapore and the US
Given the geopolitical dynamics, KYEC is also enhancing its supply resilience by diversifying its production base. The new Singapore fab just started mass production in Q226. KYEC also recently announced its plan for the US expansion. In terms of implication to profitability, our view is the dilution should be manageable if KYEC could negotiate with key clients for tool consignment.
Valuation: Buy with lower target of NT$325
We lower 2026/27/28E EPS by 11-15% to factor in less meaningful increase of final test time of Cloud AI chips, MediaTek's TPU v8t order split with ASE, and higher OPEX assumption. We lower our price target to NT$325 from NT$380, based on unchanged 22x 2027E PE. Maintain Buy rating.
| Equities | Equities | Equities | Equities |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan Semiconductors | Taiwan Semiconductors | Taiwan Semiconductors | Taiwan Semiconductors |
| 12-month rating | 12-month rating | 12-month rating | Buy |
| 12m price target | 12m price target | 12m price target | NT$325.00 Prior : NT$380.00 |
| Price (07 Aug 2026) | Price (07 Aug 2026) | Price (07 Aug 2026) | NT$242.00 |
| RIC: 2449.TW BBG: 2449 TT | RIC: 2449.TW BBG: 2449 TT | RIC: 2449.TW BBG: 2449 TT | RIC: 2449.TW BBG: 2449 TT |
| Trading data and key metrics | Trading data and key metrics | Trading data and key metrics | Trading data and key metrics |
| 52-wk range | 52-wk range | 52-wk range | NT$354.00-127.50 |
| Market cap. Shares o/s | Market cap. Shares o/s | Market cap. Shares o/s | NT$296b/US$9.17b 1,223m (ORD) |
| Free float | Free float | Free float | 91% |
| Avg. daily volume ('000) | Avg. daily volume ('000) | Avg. daily volume ('000) | 35,140 |
| Avg. daily value (m) | Avg. daily value (m) | Avg. daily value (m) | NT$10,695.4 |
| Common s/h equity (12/26E) | Common s/h equity (12/26E) | Common s/h equity (12/26E) | NT$61.9b |
| P/BV (12/26E) | P/BV (12/26E) | P/BV (12/26E) | 4.8x |
| Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | 1.7x |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) |
| From | To | %ch Cons. | |
| 12/26E | 10.18 | 9.13 | -10 9.29 |
| 12/27E | 17.28 | 14.79 | -14 14.62 |
| 12/28E | 20.85 | 18.34 | -12 19.85 |
| Sunny Lin Analyst sunny.lin@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7346 | |||
| Ryan Sun | |||
| Analyst ryan-za.sun@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7267 |
| Highlights (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 33,025 | 26,856 | 34,934 | 47,663 | 69,243 | 84,810 | 98,410 | 116,440 |
| EBIT (UBS) | 7,364 | 6,172 | 9,003 | 13,174 | 21,360 | 27,154 | 32,006 | 39,064 |
| Net earnings (UBS) | 5,840 | 4,445 | 7,963 | 11,184 | 18,107 | 22,448 | 26,522 | 31,860 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | 4.78 | 3.64 | 6.48 | 9.13 | 14.79 | 18.34 | 21.66 | 26.02 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 3.50 | 0.00 | 5.86 | 5.95 | 5.86 | 11.93 | 14.10 | 16.94 |
| Net (debt) / cash | (11,133) | (10,251) | (12,311) | (41,691) | (70,879) | (91,654) | (107,057) | (115,661) |
| Profitability/valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EBIT (UBS) margin% | 22.3 | 23.0 | 25.8 | 27.6 | 30.8 | 32.0 | 32.5 | 33.5 |
| ROIC (EBIT)% | 19.1 | 11.7 | 15.7 | 18.8 | 22.3 | 21.7 | 21.3 | 23.2 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x | 4.7 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 5.1 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) x | 13.0 | 29.7 | 21.1 | 26.5 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 11.2 | 9.3 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield% | 9.2 | 3.1 | (11.1) | (9.7) | (10.2) | (3.8) | (2.1) | 1.0 |
| Dividend yield (net)% | 5.6 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 7.0 |
Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 242.00 on 07-Aug-2026 18:28:01 CST
Figure 1: Q226 results vs consensus and UBS estimates
| (NT$m) | Q226A | VA | Diff. vs VA | LSEG | Diff. vs LSEG | UBSe | Q126 | QoQ | Q225 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,142 | 11,203 | -1% | 11,179 | 0% | 11,235 | 10,192 | 9% | 8,362 | 33% |
| Gross profit | 4,400 | 4,433 | -1% | 4,402 | 0% | 4,468 | 4,051 | 9% | 2,972 | 48% |
| - Gross margin | 39.5% | 39.6% | -8bps | 39.4% | 11bps | 39.8% | 39.7% | -25bps | 35.5% | 396bps |
| Operating profit | 2,828 | 3,209 | -12% | 3,227 | -12% | 3,417 | 2,772 | 2% | 2,176 | 30% |
| - OP margin | 25.4% | 28.6% | -326bps | 28.9% | -349bps | 30.4% | 27.2% | -182bps | 26.0% | -64bps |
| Net profit | 2,492 | 2,656 | -6% | 2,641 | -6% | 2,849 | 2,286 | 9% | 2,175 | 15% |
| EPS (NT$) | 2.04 | 2.07 | -1% | 2.05 | 0% | 2.33 | 1.87 | 9% | 1.78 | 15% |
Source: Company data, Visible Alpha, LSEG, UBS estimates
Figure 2: Revisions to UBS earnings estimates
| New | New | New | Old | Old | Old | Change | Change | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$m) | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Revenue | 47,663 | 69,243 | 84,810 | 49,608 | 71,183 | 86,983 | -4% | -3% | -2% |
| - YoY chg (%) | 36% | 45% | 22% | 42% | 43% | 22% | |||
| Gross profit | 19,160 | 28,622 | 34,999 | 20,016 | 30,680 | 37,503 | -4% | -7% | -7% |
| - Gross margin | 40.2% | 41.3% | 41.3% | 40.3% | 43.1% | 43.1% | 0% | -2% | -2% |
| Operating profit | 13,174 | 21,360 | 27,154 | 15,403 | 25,832 | 31,832 | -14% | -17% | -15% |
| - Operating margin | 27.6% | 30.8% | 32.0% | 31.0% | 36.3% | 36.6% | -3% | -5% | -5% |
| Non-op | 718 | 1,275 | 906 | 178 | 696 | 191 | 303% | 83% | 374% |
| Pre-tax profit | 13,892 | 22,634 | 28,060 | 15,581 | 26,528 | 32,023 | -11% | -15% | -12% |
| Reported net profit | 11,184 | 18,107 | 22,448 | 12,504 | 21,222 | 25,618 | -11% | -15% | -12% |
| - Net margin | 23.5% | 26.1% | 26.5% | 25.2% | 29.8% | 29.5% | |||
| Reported EPS (NT$) | 9.15 | 14.81 | 18.36 | 10.23 | 17.36 | 20.95 | -11% | -15% | -12% |
| - YoY chg (%) | 2% | 62% | 24% | 14% | 70% | 21% |
Source: UBS estimates. Note: Our EPS estimates here are based on basic EPS, and may differ from the table on the cover page.
Figure 3: UBS earnings estimates vs. consensus
| UBS | UBS | UBS | Consensus | Consensus | Consensus | Difference | Difference | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$m) | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Revenue | 47,663 | 69,243 | 84,810 | 49,743 | 72,498 | 93,917 | -4% | -4% | -10% |
| - YoY chg (%) | 36% | 45% | 22% | 42% | 46% | 30% | |||
| Gross profit | 19,160 | 28,622 | 34,999 | 19,962 | 30,231 | 39,582 | -4% | -5% | -12% |
| - Gross margin | 40.2% | 41.3% | 41.3% | 40.1% | 41.7% | 42.1% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Operating profit | 13,174 | 21,360 | 27,154 | 14,717 | 23,818 | 31,621 | -10% | -10% | -14% |
| - Operating margin | 27.6% | 30.8% | 32.0% | 29.6% | 32.9% | 33.7% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Pre-tax profit | 13,892 | 22,634 | 28,060 | 14,967 | 24,135 | 32,038 | -7% | -6% | -12% |
| Net profit | 11,184 | 18,107 | 22,448 | 12,043 | 19,394 | 25,747 | -7% | -7% | -13% |
| - Net margin | 23.5% | 26.1% | 26.5% | 24.2% | 26.8% | 27.4% | |||
| Basic EPS (NT$) | 9.15 | 14.81 | 18.36 | 9.38 | 15.18 | 20.04 | -3% | -2% | -8% |
| - YoY chg (%) | 2% | 62% | 24% | 4% | 62% | 32% |
Source: Visible Alpha, UBS estimates. Note: Our EPS estimates here are based on basic EPS, and may differ from the table on the cover page.
Figure 4: UBS earnings forecast
| (NT$m) | 2025 | Q126E | Q226E | Q326E | Q426E | 2026E | Q127E | Q227E | Q327E | Q427E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 34,934 | 10,192 | 11,142 | 12,083 | 14,247 | 47,663 | 13,794 | 16,289 | 18,688 | 20,472 | 69,243 | 84,810 | 98,410 | 116,440 |
| - YoY chg (%) | 30% | 39% | 33% | 30% | 43% | 36% | 35% | 46% | 55% | 44% | 45% | 22% | 16% | 18% |
| - QoQ chg (%) | - | 2% | 9% | 8% | 18% | - | -3% | 18% | 15% | 10% | - | - | - | - |
| Gross profit | 12,522 | 4,051 | 4,400 | 4,665 | 6,044 | 19,160 | 5,634 | 6,723 | 7,735 | 8,530 | 28,622 | 34,999 | 40,986 | 49,480 |
| - Gross margin | 35.8% | 39.7% | 39.5% | 38.6% | 42.4% | 40.2% | 40.8% | 41.3% | 41.4% | 41.7% | 41.3% | 41.3% | 41.6% | 42.5% |
| Operating profit | 9,003 | 2,772 | 2,828 | 3,213 | 4,361 | 13,174 | 4,138 | 5,003 | 5,795 | 6,424 | 21,360 | 27,154 | 32,006 | 39,064 |
| - Operating margin | 25.8% | 27.2% | 25.4% | 26.6% | 30.6% | 27.6% | 30.0% | 30.7% | 31.0% | 31.4% | 30.8% | 32.0% | 32.5% | 33.5% |
| Pre-tax profit | 10,629 | 2,808 | 3,076 | 3,453 | 4,555 | 13,892 | 4,534 | 5,362 | 6,103 | 6,635 | 22,634 | 28,060 | 33,153 | 39,826 |
| Net profit | 11,016 | 2,286 | 2,492 | 2,762 | 3,644 | 11,184 | 3,627 | 4,289 | 4,883 | 5,308 | 18,107 | 22,448 | 26,522 | 31,860 |
| - YoY chg (%) | 42% | -47% | 15% | 20% | 62% | 2% | 59% | 72% | 77% | 46% | 62% | 24% | 18% | 20% |
| - QoQ chg (%) | - | 2% | 9% | 11% | 32% | - | 0% | 18% | 14% | 9% | - | - | - | - |
| Basic EPS (NT$) | 9.01 | 1.87 | 2.04 | 2.26 | 2.98 | 9.15 | 2.97 | 3.51 | 3.99 | 4.34 | 14.81 | 18.36 | 21.69 | 26.06 |
| - YoY chg (%) | 42% | -47% | 15% | 20% | 62% | 2% | 59% | 72% | 77% | 46% | 62% | 24% | 18% | 20% |
| - QoQ chg (%) | - | 2% | 9% | 11% | 32% | - | 0% | 18% | 14% | 9% | - | - | - | - |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates. Note: Our EPS estimates here are based on basic EPS, and may differ from the table on the cover page.
Figure 5: KYEC's 12-month forward PE band (x)
Source: LSEG, UBS
Figure 6: KYEC's 12-month forward P/BV band (x)
Source: LSEG, UBS
King Yuan Electronics (2449.TW)
| Income Statement (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | %ch | 12/27E | %ch | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 33,025 | 26,856 | 34,934 | 47,663 | 36.4 | 69,243 | 45.3 | 84,810 | 98,410 | 116,440 |
| Gross profit | 11,142 | 9,344 | 12,522 | 19,160 | 53.0 | 28,622 | 49.4 | 34,999 | 40,986 | 49,480 |
| EBITDA (UBS) | 16,498 | 13,496 | 16,516 | 25,101 | 52.0 | 38,871 | 54.9 | 49,265 | 58,296 | 69,711 |
| Depreciation & amortisation | (9,134) | (7,324) | (7,513) | (11,928) | -58.8 | (17,511) | -46.8 | (22,110) | (26,290) | (30,647) |
| EBIT (UBS) | 7,364 | 6,172 | 9,003 | 13,174 | 46.3 | 21,360 | 62.1 | 27,154 | 32,006 | 39,064 |
| Associates & investment income | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other non-operating income | 114 | (207) | 1,764 | 1,281 | -27.4 | 2,836 | 121.4 | 3,236 | 4,036 | 4,036 |
| Net interest | 6 | 6 | (138) | (562) | -308.7 | (1,561) | -177.6 | (2,330) | (2,889) | (3,274) |
| Exceptionals (incl goodwill) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pre-tax profit | 7,484 | 5,972 | 10,629 | 13,892 | 30.7 | 22,634 | 62.9 | 28,060 | 33,153 | 39,826 |
| Tax | (1,468) | (1,211) | (2,624) | (2,707) | -3.2 | (4,527) | -67.2 | (5,612) | (6,631) | (7,965) |
| Profit after tax | 6,016 | 4,761 | 8,005 | 11,185 | 39.7 | 18,107 | 61.9 | 22,448 | 26,522 | 31,861 |
| Preference dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 0 | - 99.0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minorities Extraordinary | (176) 0 | (316) 3,334 | (42) 3,053 | - | 0 0 | 0.0 - | 0 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 | |
| items | 0 | |||||||||
| Net earnings (local GAAP) | 5,840 | 7,779 | 11,016 | 11,184 | 1.5 | 18,107 | 61.9 | 22,448 | 26,522 | 31,860 |
| Net earnings (UBS) | 5,840 | 4,445 | 7,963 | 11,184 | 40.5 | 18,107 | 61.9 | 22,448 | 26,522 | 31,860 |
| Tax rate (%) | 19.6 | 20.3 | 24.7 | 19.5 | -21.1 | 20.0 | 2.6 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| Per Share (NT$) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | %ch | 12/27E | %ch | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) | 4.78 | 3.64 | 6.48 | 9.13 | 41.0 | 14.79 | 62.0 | 18.34 | 21.66 | 26.02 |
| EPS (local GAAP, diluted) | 4.78 | 6.36 | 8.96 | 9.13 | 1.9 | 14.79 | 62.0 | 18.34 | 21.66 | 26.02 |
| EPS (UBS, basic) | 4.78 | 6.51 | 9.15 | 14.81 | 61.9 | 18.36 | ||||
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 3.50 | 3.64 | 5.95 | 40.5 | 5.86 | -1.5 | 11.93 | 21.69 14.10 | 26.06 | |
| Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) 1 | 12.25 | 0.00 9.62 | 5.86 12.59 | 18.87 | 1.5 49.9 | 29.09 | 54.2 | 36.40 | 43.14 | 16.94 51.06 |
| Book value per share | 31.88 | 35.48 | 41.24 | 50.63 | 22.8 | 59.49 | 17.5 | 68.23 | 77.99 | 89.94 |
| Average shares (diluted) | 1,222 | 1,223 | 1,230 | 1,225 | -0.4 | 1,224 | 0.0 | 1,224 | 1,224 | 1,224 |
| Balance Sheet (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | %ch | 12/27E | %ch | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Cash and equivalents Other current assets | 12,263 9,779 | 10,329 33,589 | 17,964 10,956 | 28,926 10,846 | 61.0 -1.0 | 34,738 15,620 | 20.1 | 43,963 16,942 | 53,560 20,023 | 64,956 23,245 |
| Total current assets | 22,041 | 43,918 | 28,919 | 50,357 | 44.0 | 73,583 | 88,201 | |||
| Net tangible fixed assets | 44,140 | 34,924 | 60,554 | 39,772 99,414 | 37.5 64.2 | 133,902 | 26.6 34.7 | 60,905 163,792 | 187,502 | 206,855 |
| Net intangible fixed | 13 | 7 | -23.0 | 7 | 0.0 | 7 | 7 | |||
| assets | 7,717 | 8 | 9 | 184.7 | 43,301 | 30.0 | 7 | 52,626 | 59,577 | |
| Investments / other assets Total assets | 73,911 | 7,862 | 11,696 | 33,301 | 227,568 | 31.9 | 46,103 | 313,719 | ||
| liabilities | 86,711 | 101,178 | 172,494 | 70.5 | 270,807 | 354,641 | ||||
| Trade payables & other ST | 6,953 | 16,907 | 15,919 | 21,104 | 32.6 - | 22,101 | 4.7 | 22,375 | 22,990 | 23,574 0 |
| Short term debt Total current liabilities | 795 7,748 | 0 | 0 15,919 | 0 21,104 | 32.6 | 0 22,101 | - 4.7 | 0 22,375 | 0 22,990 | 23,574 |
| Long term debt | 22,601 | 16,907 20,581 | 30,275 | 70,617 | 133.3 | 105,617 | 49.6 | 135,617 | 160,617 | 180,617 |
| Other long term liabilities | 3,536 | 4,512 | 4,546 | 18,855 | 314.7 | 27,094 | 43.7 | 29,382 | 34,747 | 40,465 |
| Preferred shares | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total liabilities (incl pref shares) | 33,885 | 41,999 | 50,740 | 110,576 | 117.9 | 154,812 | 40.0 | 187,373 | 218,354 | 244,655 |
| Common s/h equity | 1,124 | 1,415 | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 9 | 0.0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Minority interests | 38,903 | 43,296 | 50,429 | 61,910 | 22.8 | 72,747 | 17.5 | 83,425 | 95,356 | 109,977 |
| Total liabilities & equity | 73,911 | 86,711 | 101,178 | 172,494 | 70.5 | 227,568 | 31.9 | 270,807 | 313,719 | 354,641 |
| Cash Flow (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | %ch | 12/27E | %ch | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Net income (before pref divs) Depreciation & amortisation | 5,840 9,134 | 7,779 | 11,016 7,513 | 11,184 11,928 | 1.5 | 18,107 17,511 | 61.9 46.8 | 22,448 22,110 | 26,522 26,290 | 31,860 30,647 |
| Net change in working capital | 95 | 7,324 1,444 | (1,822) | 569 | 58.8 - | (2,947) | - | (819) | (1,924) | (2,063) |
| Other operating | (809) | 1,928 | (3,555) | 30.8 | (10,830) | -340.2 | (3,032) | (7,064) | ||
| Operating cash | 14,260 | (2,460) | 21,842 | 2.9 | 40,707 | 43,824 | (7,527) 52,917 | |||
| flow Tangible capital | (7,273) | 18,475 (14,437) | 13,152 (31,732) | 21,221 | 61.4 | (52,000) | -4.0 | (52,000) | (50,000) | (50,000) |
| expenditure | 0 | (50,000) 0 | -57.6 | - | 0 | |||||
| Intangible capital expenditure | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net (acquisitions) & disposals | 0 | 0 | 52 | (1) | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 0 | 0 |
| Other investing Investing cash | 0 | 81 | 18,602 | 62 | -99.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| flow | (7,273) | (14,355) | (13,078) | (49,939) | -281.9 | (52,000) | -4.1 | (52,000) | (50,000) | (50,000) (17,239) |
| Equity dividends paid | (4,280) | (3,913) | (4,891) 0 | (7,160) | -46.4 | (7,270) | -1.5 | (11,770) 0 | (14,591) 0 | 0 |
| Share issues / (buybacks) | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| Other financing | (36,073) | 0 3,947 | (414) | 0 6,612 | - | 0 8,239 | 24.6 | 2,287 | 5,365 | 5,718 |
| Change in debt & pref shares Financing cash flow | 32,858 (7,495) | (2,815) | 9,918 | 40,229 | 305.6 NM | 35,000 35,969 | -13.0 -9.4 | 30,000 20,518 | 25,000 15,774 | 20,000 8,479 |
| Cash flow inc/(dec) in cash | (508) | (2,781) 1,339 | 4,613 | 39,681 10,963 | 9,597 | 11,396 | ||||
| FX / non cash items | 4,687 2,947 | 0 | 133.9 - | 5,811 0 | -47.0 - | 9,225 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Balance sheet inc/(dec) in | (46) | (3,272) (1,933) | 7,634 | 10,963 | 43.6 | -47.0 | 9,597 | |||
| cash | (554) | 5,811 | 9,225 | |||||||
| 11,396 |
Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts. 1 Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) is calculated using UBS net income adding back depreciation and amortization.
King Yuan Electronics (2449.TW)
| Valuation (x) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (local GAAP, diluted) | 13.0 | 17.0 | 15.3 | 26.5 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 11.2 | 9.3 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) | 13.0 | 29.7 | 21.1 | 26.5 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 11.2 | 9.3 |
| P/CEPS | 5.1 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 4.7 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield% | 9.2 | 3.1 | (11.1) | (9.7) | (10.2) | (3.8) | (2.1) | 1.0 |
| Dividend yield (net)% | 5.6 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 7.0 |
| P/BV | 1.9 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| EV/revenues (core) | 2.3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) | 4.7 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 5.1 |
| EV/EBIT (core) | 10.4 | 23.3 | 19.4 | 22.8 | 15.0 | 12.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 |
| EV/OpFCF (core) | 4.7 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 5.1 |
| EV/op. invested capital | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Enterprise value (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Market cap. | 75,738 | 131,648 | 166,830 | 295,904 | 295,904 | 295,904 | 295,904 | 295,904 |
| Net debt (cash) | 73 | 10,692 | 11,281 | 27,001 | 56,285 | 81,267 | 99,356 | 111,359 |
| Buy out of minorities | 1,124 | 1,415 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Pension provisions/other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total enterprise value | 76,935 | 143,755 | 178,120 | 322,914 | 352,198 | 377,180 | 395,268 | 407,272 |
| Non core assets | (94) | (100) | (3,279) | (22,802) | (32,766) | (35,532) | (42,020) | (48,935) |
| Core enterprise value | 76,841 | 143,655 | 174,841 | 300,112 | 319,432 | 341,648 | 353,249 | 358,337 |
| Growth (%) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Revenue | (10.2) | (18.7) | 30.1 | 36.4 | 45.3 | 22.5 | 16.0 | 18.3 |
| EBITDA (UBS) | (10.3) | (18.2) | 22.4 | 52.0 | 54.9 | 26.7 | 18.3 | 19.6 |
| EBIT (UBS) | (19.7) | (16.2) | 45.9 | 46.3 | 62.1 | 27.1 | 17.9 | 22.1 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) | (14.4) | (23.9) | 78.1 | 41.0 | 62.0 | 24.0 | 18.2 | 20.1 |
| Net DPS | 16.8 | (100.0) | - | 1.5 | (1.5) | 103.8 | 18.2 | 20.1 |
| Margins & Profitability (%) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Gross profit margin | 33.7 | 34.8 | 35.8 | 40.2 | 41.3 | 41.3 | 41.6 | 42.5 |
| EBITDA margin | 50.0 | 50.3 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 56.1 | 58.1 | 59.2 | 59.9 |
| EBIT (UBS) margin | 22.3 | 23.0 | 25.8 | 27.6 | 30.8 | 32.0 | 32.5 | 33.5 |
| Net earnings (UBS) margin | 17.7 | 16.6 | 22.8 | 23.5 | 26.1 | 26.5 | 27.0 | 27.4 |
| ROIC (EBIT) | 19.1 | 11.7 | 15.7 | 18.8 | 22.3 | 21.7 | 21.3 | 23.2 |
| ROIC post tax | 15.4 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 15.1 | 17.8 | 17.3 | 17.1 | 18.5 |
| ROE (UBS) | 15.6 | 10.8 | 17.0 | 19.9 | 26.9 | 28.7 | 29.7 | 31.0 |
| Capital structure & Coverage (x) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Net debt / total equity% | 27.8 | 22.9 | 24.4 | 67.3 | 97.4 | 109.9 | 112.3 | 105.2 |
| Net debt / (net debt + total equity)% | 21.8 | 18.7 | 19.6 | 40.2 | 49.3 | 52.3 | 52.9 | 51.3 |
| Net debt/EV% | 0.1 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 16.0 | 21.5 | 25.1 | 27.3 |
| Capex / depreciation% | 79.9 | 197.4 | NM | NM | NM | NM | 190.2 | 163.2 |
| Capex / revenue% | 22.0 | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
| EBIT / net interest | - | - | 65.4 | 23.4 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 11.9 |
| Dividend cover (UBS) | 1.4 | - | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Div. payout ratio (UBS)% | 73.3 | - | 89.9 | 65.0 | 39.5 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 |
| Revenues by division (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Others | 33,025 | 26,856 | 34,934 | 47,663 | 69,243 | 84,810 | 116,440 | |
| 33,025 | 34,934 | 47,663 | 69,243 | 84,810 | 98,410 98,410 | 116,440 | ||
| Total | 26,856 | 12/30E | ||||||
| EBIT (UBS) by division (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 39,064 |
| Others | 7,364 | 6,172 | 9,003 | 13,174 | 21,360 | 27,154 | 32,006 | 39,064 |
| Total | 7,364 | 6,172 | 9,003 | 13,174 | 21,360 | 27,154 | 32,006 |
Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.
Forecast returns
| Forecast price appreciation | 34.3% |
|---|---|
| Forecast dividend yield | 2.5% |
| Forecast stock return | 36.8% |
| Market return assumption | 6.3% |
| Forecast excess return | 30.5% |
Company Description
Founded in 1987, King Yuan is Taiwan's leading pure semiconductor testing provider, with diversified applications and a growing customer base.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
We value King Yuan based on a PE multiple.
Company-specific upside/downside risks include: a stronger/weaker-than-expected recovery in end-market tech demand and growing Chinese competition.
Quantitative Research Review
UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.
King Yuan Electronics
| Question | Response |
|---|---|
| 1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 5. What's driving the difference? | |
| 6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 7. What's driving the difference? | |
| 8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the next three months? | No Catalyst |
| 9. Is there an actual or approximate date for the catalyst? | |
| 10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approximate date? | |
| 11. What is the catalyst? |
Required Disclosures
This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".
For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 07 August 2026 10:39 AM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts coauthor research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses, please see the Quantitative Research Review Addendum at the back of this report, where applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/ quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quantanswers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.