PDF 原檔：報告_Nomura_頎邦6147_調升評等_20260914_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-09-16）
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原始內容
Relative performance chart
EQUITY: OSAT
Price
(TWD)
300-
250-
200-
150
100|
50-
-300
- 250
-200
- 150
Chipbond Technology Corporation 6147.TWO 6147 TT
EQUITY: OSAT
Churra. I CEC Namura
Concrete improvement in fundamentals in sight
Solid SiPh demand and future opportunities; baseline business benefiting from AI ripple effect; upgrade to Buy
Upgrade to Buy on increased progress in SiPh and potential DDIC backend reshuffles, with a new TP of TWD270, implying 43% upside
We were encouraged by Chipbond's efforts to utilize its idle bumping capacity and make inroads into silicon photonics (SiPh) but did not upgrade the stock as we assumed that the market has likely priced in much more than it would deliver (report ). Beside the reset in the market sentiment (share price -38% from the peak in late May vs. TAIEX +3%), we see increased progress in Chipbond's bumping services in SiPh and that its baseline DDIC business could enjoy the 'AI ripple effect' given a Korean DDIC vendor's supply chain reshuffle. We lift our 2026/27/28F EPS from TWD4.55/5.71/ 6.70 to TWD5.77/9.04/10.60 (Fig. 2 ) . We upgrade Chipbond to Buy from Neutral and raise TP to TWD270 (from TWD171), which is based on 30x (unchanged) 2027F EPS of TWD9.04, at the high end of the company's historical band (Fig. 4 ) to capture the diversification into SiPh. Chipbond currently trades at 21x 2027F EPS. Downside risks are softerthan-expected optical communication demand and slower new project ramp-up.
| Rating Up from Neutral | Buy |
|---|---|
| Target price Increased from TWD 171.00 | TWD 270.00 |
| Closing price 14 September 2026 | TWD 189.00 |
| Implied upside | +42.9% |
| Market Cap (USD mn) | 4,431.3 |
| ADT (USD mn) | 185.8 |
| Relative performance | chart |
TIA bumping remains the major driver in SiPh; TFLN engagement worth watching
While the addressable segments of Chipbond's gold bumping include transimpedance amplifier (TIA), photodetector (PD), driver and modulator, we believe so far only TIA and PD are in production, and most of Chipbond's SiPh revenue comes from 200G TIA bumping due to a larger die size than PD, with tie-ups with most of the major North American vendors. We estimate Chipbond's SiPh revenue to grow 110%/70% in 2027-28F and contribute low-/high-teens of revenue vs. c.6% in 2026F; thus, a more significant mix benefit could support GM growth to 32.7%/34.4% in 2027-28F from 29.4% in 2026F. Additionally, we believe Chipbond's backend collaboration with UMC (2303 TT, Buy) in thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN) modulator production is worth watching given a much larger die size.
Share gain in LDDI backend might mitigate some device unit pressure
We expect Chipbond's revenue growth to moderate in 4Q26F after +14% q-q growth in 3Q26F on a N American handset brand's seasonal demand and SiPh resilience given continued PC/ Android demand headwinds to Chipbond's baseline DDIC business (~80% of current revenue). However, we noted before that a Korea DDIC vendor could engage with UMC due to the company's captive fab partner's likely 8' capacity offloading amidst resource constraints (report ). The capacity optimization might cover more than fabrication but also gold bumping, and we think Chipbond could thus have the opportunity to gain LDDI backend share from 2027F in the earliest.
| Year-end 31 Dec Currency (TWD) | FY25 Actual | Old | FY26F New | Old | FY27F New | Old | FY28F New |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (mn) | 21,454 | 24,935 | 27,432 | 26,863 | 33,075 | 28,462 | 36,143 |
| Reported net profit (mn) | 2,775 | 3,390 | 4,280 | 4,250 | 6,712 | 4,985 | 7,871 |
| Normalised net profit (mn) | 2,775 | 3,390 | 4,280 | 4,250 | 6,712 | 4,985 | 7,871 |
| FD normalised EPS | 3.74 | 4.55 | 5.77 | 5.71 | 9.04 | 6.70 | 10.60 |
| FD norm. EPS growth (%) | -33.0 | 21.6 | 54.0 | 25.4 | 56.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 |
| FD normalised P/E (x) | 50.5 | - | 32.8 | - | 20.9 | - | 17.8 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 22.9 | - | 16.6 | - | 12.1 | - | 11.0 |
| Price/book (x) | 3.0 | - | 2.3 | - | 2.2 | - | 2.1 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.5 | - | 2.3 | - | 3.6 | - | 4.2 |
| ROE (%) | 5.9 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 11.9 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash |
Source: Company data, Nomura estimates
Research Analysts
Semiconductor
Eric Chen, CFA - NITB eric.chen@nomura.com +886(2) 21769965
Aaron Jeng, CFA - NITB
aaron.jeng@nomura.com +886(2) 21769962
Vivian Yang - NITB
vivian.yang@nomura.com +886(2) 21769970
Production Complete: 2026-09-14 23:57 UTC
Key data on Chipbond Technology Corporation
Cashflow statement (TWDmn)
| Year-end 31 Dec | FY24 | FY25 | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 5,934 | 5,398 | 8,270 -3,442 | 10,751 -1,537 | 11,701 -759 |
| Change in working capital Other operating cashflow | 13 -615 | -795 -1,055 | -1,239 | -1,081 | -1,254 |
| Cashflow from operations | 5,332 | 3,548 | 3,589 | 8,133 | 9,689 |
| Capital expenditure | -876 | -3,000 | -3,000 | ||
| -4,918 | -3,346 | ||||
| Free cashflow | 4,456 | -1,370 | 243 | 5,133 | 6,689 |
| Reduction in investments | 1,467 | 760 | -262 | 0 | 0 |
| Net acquisitions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dec in other LT assets liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inc in other LT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adjustments | 789 | 568 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
| CF after investing acts | 6,712 | -42 | 30 | 5,133 | 6,689 |
| Cash dividends | -2,793 | -2,793 | -2,085 | -3,215 | -5,042 |
| Equity issue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debt issue | -900 | 1,257 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Convertible debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| issue | |||||
| Others financial acts | -17 | -223 | 540 | 0 | 0 -5,042 |
| CF from Net cashflow | -3,710 3,002 | -1,758 -1,800 | -1,545 -1,515 | -3,215 1,918 | 1,647 |
| Beginning cash | 5,623 | 8,625 | 6,825 | 5,310 | 7,228 |
| Ending cash | 8,625 | 6,825 | 5,310 | 7,228 | 8,874 |
| Ending net debt | -4,036 | -5,954 | -7,600 | ||
| As at 31 Dec | -8,625 | -5,568 | |||
| Balance sheet (TWDmn) | FY24 | FY25 | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F |
| Marketable securities | 5 4,181 | 0 4,365 | 402 6,356 | 402 7,409 | 402 7,978 |
| Accounts receivable | |||||
| Inventories | 1,998 | 3,294 | 4,702 | 5,344 | 5,596 |
| Other current assets | 85 | 107 | 108 | 108 | 108 22,958 |
| Total current assets LT investments | 14,894 19,140 | 14,591 18,851 | 16,879 30,108 | 20,491 30,508 | 30,908 |
| Fixed assets | 12,343 | 14,618 | 14,840 | 14,482 | 14,505 |
| Goodwill | 0 | 0 | |||
| Other intangible | 0 | 0 | 0 0 | ||
| assets Other LT assets | 0 | 0 | 0 6,410 | 0 6,410 | 6,410 |
| Total assets | 5,647 52,023 | 6,169 54,230 | 68,236 | 71,891 | 74,781 |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Accounts payable | 0 789 | 879 | 1,156 | 1,313 | 1,375 |
| Other current liabilities | 2,853 | 3,471 | 3,153 | 3,153 | 3,153 |
| Total current liabilities | 3,642 | 4,350 | 4,309 | 4,467 | 4,529 |
| Long-term debt | 0 | 1,257 | 1,274 | 1,274 | 1,274 |
| Convertible debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other LT liabilities | 1,248 | 1,255 | 1,254 | 1,254 | 1,254 |
| Total liabilities | 6,862 | 6,836 | 6,994 | 7,056 | |
| Minority interest | 4,890 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Preferred stock | 0 | 0 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Common stock | 0 11,310 | 11,424 | 11,977 | 11,977 | 11,977 |
| Retained | 34,082 | 36,944 | 39,139 | 42,636 | 45,465 |
| earnings Proposed dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Other equity and | 0 1,741 | -999 | 0 10,283 | 10,283 | 10,283 |
| reserves Total shareholders' equity | 47,133 | 47,368 | 61,400 | 64,897 | 67,725 |
| Total equity & liabilities | 52,023 | 74,781 | |||
| 54,230 | |||||
| Liquidity (x) | |||||
| 4.09 | 3.35 | 68,236 3.92 | 71,891 4.59 | 5.07 | |
| Current ratio Interest cover | - net cash | - net cash cash | - net cash | - net cash net | - net cash |
| Leverage Net debt/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%) | net cash | net | net cash | net | |
| Per share Reported EPS | |||||
| 5.59 | 3.74 | 5.77 | cash 9.04 | cash 10.60 | |
| (TWD) Norm EPS (TWD) | 5.59 5.59 63.29 | 3.74 3.74 | 5.77 5.77 82.46 | 9.04 87.16 | 10.60 |
| FD norm EPS (TWD) BVPS (TWD) | 63.62 | 9.04 | 10.60 90.96 | ||
| DPS (TWD) | 3.75 | 2.80 | 4.32 | 6.77 | 7.94 |
| Activity (days) | |||||
| 76.8 | 72.7 | 71.3 | 76.0 | 77.9 | |
| Days receivable | 42.8 | 57.3 | 75.4 | 82.3 | 84.5 |
| Days inventory | 18.0 | ||||
| Days payable | 17.0 | 19.2 | 20.2 | 20.8 | |
| Cash cycle | 102.7 | 111.9 | 127.5 | 138.0 | 141.6 |
Source: Company data, Nomura estimates
Performance
| (%) | 1M | 3M | 12M | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute (TWD) | 20 | -15.6 | 252.6 | M cap (USDmn) | 4,431.3 |
| Absolute (USD) | 20.9 | -16 | 236.3 | Free float (%) | 81.8 |
| Rel to Taiwan TAIEX Index | 19.2 | -20.2 | 171.3 | 3-mth ADT (USDmn) | 185.8 |
Income statement (TWDmn)
| Year-end 31 Dec | FY24 | FY25 | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20,338 | 21,454 | 27,432 | 33,075 | 36,143 |
| Cost of goods sold | -15,769 | -16,863 | -19,362 | -22,276 | -23,696 |
| Gross profit | 4,569 | 4,591 | 8,070 | 10,800 | 12,447 |
| SG&A | -2,027 | -2,191 | -2,844 | -3,407 | -3,723 |
| Employee share expense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Operating profit | 2,542 | 2,400 | 5,226 | 7,393 | 8,725 |
| EBITDA | 5,934 | 5,398 | 8,270 | 10,751 | 11,701 |
| Depreciation | -3,392 | -2,998 | -3,044 | -3,358 | -2,977 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EBIT | 2,542 | 2,400 | 5,226 | 7,393 | 8,725 |
| Net interest expense | 67 | 46 | 8 | 33 | 65 |
| Associates & JCEs | 526 | 498 | -24 | 400 | 400 |
| Other income | 1,627 | 313 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
| Earnings before tax | 4,762 | 3,256 | 5,232 | 7,826 | 9,189 |
| Income tax | -628 | -481 | -951 | -1,114 | -1,318 |
| Net profit after tax | 4,135 | 2,775 | 4,280 | 6,712 | 7,871 |
| Minority interests | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preferred dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Normalised NPAT | 4,135 | 2,775 | 4,280 | 6,712 | 7,871 |
| Extraordinary items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reported NPAT | 4,135 | 2,775 | 4,280 | 6,712 | 7,871 |
| Dividends | -2,793 | -2,085 | -3,215 | -5,042 | -5,913 |
| Transfer to reserves | 1,342 | 690 | 1,065 | 1,670 | 1,958 |
| Valuations and ratios | |||||
| Reported P/E (x) | 33.8 | 50.5 | 32.8 | 20.9 | 17.8 |
| Normalised P/E (x) | 33.8 | 50.5 | 32.8 | 20.9 | 17.8 |
| FD normalised P/E (x) | 33.8 | 50.5 | 32.8 | 20.9 | 17.8 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| Price/cashflow (x) | 26.2 | 39.5 | 39.1 | 17.2 | 14.5 |
| Price/book (x) | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 20.5 | 22.9 | 16.6 | 12.1 | 11.0 |
| EV/EBIT (x) | 43.1 | 46.6 | 26.3 | 17.3 | 14.6 |
| Gross margin (%) | 22.5 | 21.4 | 29.4 | 32.7 | 34.4 |
| EBITDA margin (%) | 29.2 | 25.2 | 30.1 | 32.5 | 32.4 |
| EBIT margin (%) | 12.5 | 11.2 | 19.1 | 22.4 | 24.1 |
| Net margin (%) | 20.3 | 12.9 | 15.6 | 20.3 | 21.8 |
| Effective tax rate (%) | 13.2 | 14.8 | 18.2 | 14.2 | 14.3 |
| Dividend payout (%) | 67.5 | 75.1 | 75.1 | 75.1 | 75.1 |
| ROE (%) | 8.6 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 11.9 |
| ROA (pretax %) | 6.6 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 14.0 |
| Growth (%) | |||||
| Revenue | 1.4 | 5.5 | 27.9 | 20.6 | 9.3 |
| EBITDA | -17.6 | -9.0 | 53.2 | 30.0 | 8.8 |
| Normalised EPS | 3.4 | -33.0 | 54.0 | 56.8 | 17.3 |
| Normalised FDEPS | 3.4 | -33.0 | 54.0 | 56.8 | 17.3 |
Source: Company data, Nomura estimates
Company profile
Chipbond is one of the world's leading DDI OSAT players. Established in 1997, Chipbond specialises in providing display driver and radio-frequency semiconductor packaging and testing services.
Valuation Methodology
Our TP of TWD270 is based on 30x 2027F EPS. Our target P/E of 30x is at the high end of the historical P/E range. TAIEX is the benchmark index.
Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price
Downside risks: 1) Softer-than-expected silicon photonic demand or fiercer competition, 2) slower-than-expected smartphone and TV demand, 3) weaker-than-expected COF/tape demand.
ESG
Chipbond manages its corporate social responsibility by focusing on five dimensions: corporate governance, workplace of well-being, environmental and sustainable development, customer service and supplier management, and social participation. The company sets water-saving milestones and establishes low-carbon plants in practice.
Fig. 1: Chipbond's P&L
| (TWD mn) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 2025 | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,143 | 5,373 | 5,543 | 5,395 | 5,756 | 6,632 | 7,572 | 7,472 | 7,490 | 8,087 | 8,789 | 8,710 | 21,454 | 27,432 | 33,075 | 36,143 |
| Gross profit | 1,181 | 1,100 | 1,169 | 1,142 | 1,350 | 2,010 | 2,379 | 2,331 | 2,384 | 2,635 | 2,913 | 2,867 | 4,591 | 8,070 | 10,800 | 12,447 |
| - Opex | (474) | (513) | (573) | (630) | (562) | (732) | (780) | (770) | (771) | (833) | (905) | (897) | (2,191) | (2,844) | (3,407) | (3,723) |
| Operating profit | 706 | 587 | 596 | 512 | 788 | 1,278 | 1,599 | 1,561 | 1,613 | 1,802 | 2,008 | 1,970 | 2,400 | 5,226 | 7,393 | 8,725 |
| Pretax profit | 835 | 433 | 1,000 | 988 | 493 | 1,371 | 1,707 | 1,661 | 1,718 | 1,912 | 2,121 | 2,075 | 3,256 | 5,232 | 7,826 | 9,189 |
| Net profit | 668 | 410 | 866 | 831 | 437 | 950 | 1,466 | 1,427 | 1,475 | 1,640 | 1,818 | 1,779 | 2,775 | 4,280 | 6,712 | 7,871 |
| EPS (TWD) | 0.90 | 0.55 | 1.17 | 1.12 | 0.59 | 1.28 | 1.97 | 1.92 | 1.99 | 2.21 | 2.45 | 2.40 | 3.74 | 5.77 | 9.04 | 10.60 |
| Profitability | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 2025 | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F |
| Gross margin | 23.0% | 20.5% | 21.1% | 21.2% | 23.5% | 30.3% | 31.4% | 31.2% | 31.8% | 32.6% | 33.1% | 32.9% | 21.4% | 29.4% | 32.7% | 34.4% |
| - Opex ratio | -9.2% | -9.6% | -10.3% | -11.7% | -9.8% | -11.0% | -10.3% | -10.3% | -10.3% | -10.3% | -10.3% | -10.3% | -10.2% | -10.4% | -10.3% | -10.3% |
| Operating margin | 13.7% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 19.3% | 21.1% | 20.9% | 21.5% | 22.3% | 22.8% | 22.6% | 11.2% | 19.1% | 22.4% | 24.1% |
| Pretax margin | 16.2% | 8.1% | 18.0% | 18.3% | 8.6% | 20.7% | 22.5% | 22.2% | 22.9% | 23.6% | 24.1% | 23.8% | 15.2% | 19.1% | 23.7% | 25.4% |
| Net margin | 13.0% | 7.6% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 7.6% | 14.3% | 19.4% | 19.1% | 19.7% | 20.3% | 20.7% | 20.4% | 12.9% | 15.6% | 20.3% | 21.8% |
| Q-Q | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | ||||
| Revenue | -3.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | -2.7% | 6.7% | 15.2% | 14.2% | -1.3% | 0.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | -0.9% | ||||
| Gross profit | -7.8% | -6.8% | 6.2% | -2.3% | 18.3% | 48.8% | 18.4% | -2.0% | 2.3% | 10.5% | 10.6% | -1.6% | ||||
| Operating profit | -9.8% | -17.0% | 1.5% | -14.1% | 54.0% | 62.2% | 25.1% | -2.4% | 3.3% | 11.7% | 11.4% | -1.9% | ||||
| Pretax profit | -24.4% | -48.1% | 130.7% | -1.2% | -50.1% | 178.0% | 24.5% | -2.7% | 3.4% | 11.3% | 10.9% | -2.2% | ||||
| Net profit | -27.8% | -38.6% | 111.0% | -4.0% | -47.4% | 117.3% | 54.3% | -2.7% | 3.4% | 11.2% | 10.8% | -2.2% | ||||
| Y-Y | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 2025 | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F |
| Revenue | 20.0% | 4.3% | -0.1% | 0.8% | 11.9% | 23.4% | 36.6% | 38.5% | 30.1% | 21.9% | 16.1% | 16.6% | 5.5% | 27.9% | 20.6% | 9.3% |
| Gross profit | 79.2% | -11.6% | -15.6% | -10.8% | 14.4% | 82.7% | 103.6% | 104.1% | 76.6% | 31.1% | 22.4% | 23.0% | 0.5% | 75.8% | 33.8% | 15.3% |
| Operating profit | 461.0% | -20.0% | -33.8% | -34.6% | 11.5% | 117.9% | 168.6% | 205.0% | 104.7% | 41.0% | 25.6% | 26.2% | -5.6% | 117.7% | 41.5% | 18.0% |
| Pretax profit | -36.2% | -64.3% | -11.8% | -10.6% | -41.0% | 216.3% | 70.8% | 68.1% | 248.4% | 39.5% | 24.3% | 24.9% | -31.6% | 60.7% | 49.6% | 17.4% |
| Net profit | -45.6% | -59.1% | -11.6% | -10.2% | -34.6% | 131.6% | 69.3% | 71.7% | 237.4% | 72.6% | 24.0% | 24.7% | -32.9% | 54.2% | 56.8% | 17.3% |
Source: Company data, Nomura estimates
Fig. 2: Chipbond - 2026-28F forecast revisions
| 2026F | 2026F | 2026F | 2027F | 2027F | 2027F | 2028F | 2028F | 2028F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (TWD mn) | Revised | Previous | Change | Revised | Previous | Change | Revised | Previous | Change |
| Revenue | 27,432 | 24,935 | 10.0% | 33,075 | 26,863 | 23.1% | 36,143 | 28,462 | 27.0% |
| Gross profit | 8,070 | 6,220 | 29.7% | 10,800 | 6,991 | 54.5% | 12,447 | 7,981 | 56.0% |
| Operating profit | 5,226 | 3,727 | 40.2% | 7,393 | 4,285 | 72.5% | 8,725 | 5,143 | 69.6% |
| Pretax profit | 5,232 | 3,882 | 34.8% | 7,826 | 4,888 | 60.1% | 9,189 | 5,752 | 59.8% |
| Net profit | 4,280 | 3,390 | 26.3% | 6,712 | 4,250 | 57.9% | 7,871 | 4,985 | 57.9% |
| EPS (TWD) | 5.77 | 4.55 | 26.7% | 9.04 | 5.71 | 58.4% | 10.60 | 6.70 | 58.4% |
| Margin | Revised | Previous | Change | Revised | Previous | Change | Revised | Previous | Change |
| Gross margin | 29.4% | 24.9% | 447bps | 32.7% | 26.0% | 663bps | 34.4% | 28.0% | 640bps |
| Operating margin | 19.1% | 14.9% | 411bps | 22.4% | 16.0% | 640bps | 24.1% | 18.1% | 607bps |
| Pretax margin | 19.1% | 15.6% | 350bps | 23.7% | 18.2% | 547bps | 25.4% | 20.2% | 522bps |
| Net margin | 15.6% | 13.6% | 201bps | 20.3% | 15.8% | 447bps | 21.8% | 17.5% | 426bps |
Source: Company data, Nomura estimates
Fig. 3: Nomura forecasts vs Bloomberg consensus for 2026-28F
| 2026F | 2026F | 2026F | 2027F | 2027F | 2027F | 2028F | 2028F | 2028F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (TWD mn) | NMR | BBG | Diff. | NMR | BBG | Diff. | NMR | BBG | Diff. |
| Revenue | 27,432 | 24,726 | 10.9% | 33,075 | 30,810 | 7.4% | 36,143 | 35,498 | 1.8% |
| Gross profit | 8,070 | 6,849 | 17.8% | 10,800 | 9,366 | 15.3% | 12,447 | 11,174 | 11.4% |
| Operating profit | 5,226 | 4,203 | 24.3% | 7,393 | 6,795 | 8.8% | 8,725 | 8,524 | 2.4% |
| Pretax profit | 5,232 | 4,840 | 8.1% | 7,826 | 9,048 | -13.5% | 9,189 | 10,550 | -12.9% |
| Net profit | 4,280 | 3,758 | 13.9% | 6,712 | 7,238 | -7.3% | 7,871 | 8,440 | -6.7% |
| EPS (TWD) | 5.77 | 5.18 | 11.4% | 9.04 | 8.59 | 5.3% | 10.60 | 11.33 | -6.4% |
| Margin | NMR | BBG | Diff. | NMR | BBG | Diff. | NMR | BBG | Diff. |
| Gross margin | 29.4% | 27.7% | 172bps | 32.7% | 30.4% | 225bps | 34.4% | 31.5% | 296bps |
| Operating margin | 19.1% | 17.0% | 205bps | 22.4% | 22.1% | 30bps | 24.1% | 24.0% | 13bps |
| Pretax margin | 19.1% | 19.6% | -50bps | 23.7% | 29.4% | -571bps | 25.4% | 29.7% | -430bps |
| Net margin | 15.6% | 15.2% | 40bps | 20.3% | 23.5% | -320bps | 21.8% | 23.8% | -200bps |
Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. consensus, Nomura estimates
60
320
50
280
40
240
200
30
160
20
120
10
80
0
40
Sep-21
Sep-21
Fig. 4: Chipbond - consensus P/E ratio
14
12
10
5.0
350
4.5
4.0
300
250
3.5
3.0
200
2.5
Jan-23
Sep-21
_ BEst P/Bk — - +1SD: 1.8x
Source: TEJ, Nomura research
50
40
30
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Nomura research
Fig. 7: Chipbond's short interest
Source: TEJ, Nomura research
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Nomura research
Fig. 6: Chipbond's share price vs Bloomberg consensus EPS revisions
Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Nomura research
Fig. 5: Chipbond - consensus P/B ratio
Rating and target price chart (three year history)
300.00 |
275.00 -
250.00
225.00 -
200.00
175.00 |
150.00
125.00 -
100.00
75.00
50.00
25.00
0.00
Appendix A-1
Di
06
06
This report has been produced by Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd., Taipei Branch (NITB), Taiwan. See Disclaimers for Nomura Group entity details.