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報告_Nomura_順德2351_20260911

更新 2026-09-14

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檔名 內容 類別
報告_Nomura_順德2351_20260911_006.png 順德產品全景:導線架四大應用(車用 T-PAK/S-Cell、工業 Baseplate/Riveting、消費 VCM/TO-247、AI 導線架 Clip/TOLT/800V HVDC)+ Heat Spreader 四型(Hat/Cavity/Ring/MCL 微流道蓋) 真資料圖,可嵌入公司頁
報告_Nomura_順德2351_20260911_007.png 功率分立元件 ASP 與交期熱力圖(Diodes/LV・HV MOSFET/Small signal MOS/WBG MOSFET/IGBT,1Q22–3Q26) 真資料圖,可嵌入供應鏈頁
報告_Nomura_順德2351_20260911_011.png Nomura 評等與目標價三年歷史圖(揭露附錄) 揭露圖,不嵌入
其餘 8 張 股價相對走勢、損益表配圖等 裝飾/低資訊

原始內容

Relative performance chart

EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY

Price

(TWD)

225

2001

1751

1501

125 -

100-

75-

-150

÷125

  • 100

SDI Corporation 2351.TW 2351 TT

EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY

Courra. 1 CEC Namura

Stronger power lead frame outlook in 2H26-2027F

Heat spreader products the cherry on top; maintain Buy

We see further 2026/27F growth potential from power lead frame and heat spreader

Our recent industry channel checks suggests: 1) stronger power lead frame demand, especially from AI datacenter related in 2H26-2027F: As mentioned in our previous note , global integrated device manufacturers' (IDM) 3Q26E sales outlook continues to show strength (3Q26E weighted average revenue y-y of +17% / q-q of +7%, vs +18% / +11% in 2Q26; this implies the fifth quarter of y-y expansion since 3Q25). Specifically, a few of SDI's key IDM customers at their 2Q26 earnings calls raised 2026-27E AI datacenter revenue with stronger demand and faster capacity expansion (two customers' 2027E-related sales should double y-y, according to our channel checks). We expect SDI's 2027F power lead frame revenue from AIrelated field to realize 134% y-y growth (15% of total sales vs 8% in 2026F), with 60 ongoing projects currently; and 2) favorable pricing and product mix leading to better 2026/27F margin profile: Given supply tightness across several end markets, we expect further pricing improvement for SDI in 2H26F, after two rounds of price hikes in 1H26. In addition, given stronger demand from auto and AI datacenter (with GM better than other end markets), we expect SDI's 2H26F/FY27F GM to reach 22.1%/23.0% vs 20.0% in 1H26.

2026-27F to mark the milestone of heat spreader business development

In addition to continued capacity expansion for power lead frame products, SDI's management has decided to add more stamping equipment (ranging from 100-ton, 200-ton, to500-ton) in 2026-27E to handle increasing demand for its newly-developed product - heat spreader (including hat, cavity, ring/stiffener, and micro-channel lid, or MCL). The company will focus on automotive, ASIC/CPU, and networking in AI datacenter fields. Given superior manufacturing capability (20-30µ coplanarity vs 50-70µ of industrial average), it has secured four major orders from OSAT, auto, and IC design customers, with management expecting major revenue contribution from 2027E (we estimate 3%/7% of 2027/28F total sales). We believe there can be sales and earnings contribution upside once we are able to confirm more order receiving from higher-end products.

Raise 2026/27F EPS assumptions by 8%/17%; TP raised to TWD327

We raise 2026/27F sales and earnings growth (Fig. 1 ) with stronger order placing from global IDM customers, along with initial revenue contribution from heat spreader products. Our new TP of TWD327 is based on an unchanged multiple of 28x 2027F EPS of TWD11.68 (previously 28x 2H26-1H27F EPS of TWD8.96), vs SDI's historical average of 22.5x since 2015 (a range of 5.6x to 70.6x). The stock currently trades at 20x/16x 2027/28F EPS.

Year-end 31 Dec Currency (TWD) FY25 Actual Old FY26F New Old FY27F New Old FY28F New
Revenue (mn) 10,247 14,127 14,830 16,927 19,185 18,882 23,860
Reported net profit (mn) 303 1,348 1,455 1,931 2,263 2,296 2,871
Normalised net profit (mn) 303 1,348 1,455 1,931 2,263 2,296 2,871
FD normalised EPS 1.66 6.96 7.51 9.97 11.68 11.85 14.82
FD norm. EPS growth (%) -55.1 318.1 351.3 43.2 55.5 18.9 26.8
FD normalised P/E (x) 141.5 - 31.3 - 20.2 - 15.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 39.1 - 17.0 - 12.2 - 10.0
Price/book (x) 5.9 - 5.3 - 4.6 - 4.1
Dividend yield (%) 1.1 - 0.5 - 1.9 - 3.0
ROE (%) 4.1 17.2 18.4 21.6 24.7 23.0 27.3
Net debt/equity (%) 7.2 3.5 5.1 net cash 3.9 net cash 3.0

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Sep

Rating Remains Buy
Target price Increased from TWD 251.00 TWD 327.00
Closing price 10 September 2026 TWD 235.50
Implied upside +38.9%
Market Cap (USD mn) 1,447.6
ADT (USD mn) 38.7

Relative performance chart

Source: LSEG, Nomura

Research Analysts

Taiwan Technology

Kenny Chen - NITB kenny.chen@nomura.com +886 2 21769978

Aaron Jeng, CFA - NITB

aaron.jeng@nomura.com +886(2) 21769962

Production Complete: 2026-09-11 13:14 UTC

Key data on SDI Corporation

Performance

(%) 1M 3M 12M
Absolute (TWD) 39.8 34.6 190 M cap (USDmn) 1,447.6
Absolute (USD) 42.8 34.9 178.5 Free float (%) 80.0
Rel to Taiwan TAIEX Index 34.7 25.4 102.7 3-mth ADT (USDmn) 38.7

Income statement (TWDmn)

Year-end 31 Dec FY24 FY25 FY26F FY27F FY28F
Revenue 10,815 10,247 14,830 19,185 23,860
Cost of goods sold -9,094 -8,882 -11,683 -14,764 -18,296
Gross profit 1,721 1,365 3,147 4,421 5,565
SG&A -892 -866 -1,231 -1,471 -1,833
Employee share expense
Operating profit 829 499 1,917 2,950 3,732
EBITDA 1,535 1,200 2,690 3,762 4,583
Depreciation -707 -701 -773 -812 -851
Amortisation
EBIT 829 499 1,917 2,950 3,732
Net interest expense -50 -52 -47 -44 -44
Associates & JCEs 122 -19 25 0 0
Other income -4 12 38 46 46
Earnings before tax 897 439 1,933 2,952 3,734
Income tax -167 -95 -415 -620 -784
Net profit after tax 730 345 1,519 2,332 2,950
Minority interests -55 -42 -63 -69 -79
Other items
Preferred dividends
Normalised NPAT 675 303 1,455 2,263 2,871
Extraordinary items 0 0
Reported NPAT 675 303 1,455 2,263 2,871
Dividends -474 -455 -213 -873 -1,358
Transfer to reserves 202 -152 1,242 1,390 1,513
Valuations and ratios
Reported P/E (x) 63.5 141.5 31.3 20.2 15.9
Normalised P/E (x) 63.5 141.5 31.3 20.2 15.9
FD normalised P/E (x) 63.5 141.5 31.3 20.2 15.9
Dividend yield (%) 1.1 1.1 0.5 1.9 3.0
Price/cashflow (x) 36.1 33.4 28.4 28.1 21.7
Price/book (x) 5.8 5.9 5.3 4.6 4.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 28.3 39.1 17.0 12.2 10.0
EV/EBIT (x) 49.3 96.1 23.7 15.6 12.3
Gross margin (%) 15.9 13.3 21.2 23.0 23.3
EBITDA margin (%) 14.2 11.7 18.1 19.6 19.2
EBIT margin (%) 7.7 4.9 12.9 15.4 15.6
Net margin (%) 6.2 3.0 9.8 11.8 12.0
Effective tax rate (%) 18.6 21.5 21.5 21.0 21.0
Dividend payout (%) 70.1 150.2 14.6 38.6 47.3
ROE (%) 9.3 4.1 18.4 24.7 27.3
ROA (pretax %) 8.4 4.1 15.7 21.4 24.2
Growth (%)
Revenue -0.4 -5.2 44.7 29.4 24.4
EBITDA -7.0 -21.9 124.2 39.9 21.8
Normalised EPS -9.1 -55.1 351.3 55.5 26.8
Normalised FDEPS -9.1 -55.1 351.3 55.5 26.8

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Cashflow statement (TWDmn)

Year-end 31 Dec FY24 FY25 FY26F FY27F FY28F
EBITDA Change in 1,535 1,200 2,690 3,762 4,583
working capital Other operating cashflow -472 126 -74 -621 -1,454 -1,619 -861
Cashflow from operations 1,190 158 1,284 -461 1,608 -687 1,621 2,102
Capital expenditure -700
-587 -933 -1,300 -700
Free cashflow 603 351 308 921 1,402
Reduction in investments -69 33 0 0 0
Net acquisitions 8 -16 100 100
Dec in other LT assets Inc in other LT liabilities 24 -13 1,137 0 0 0
Adjustments 67 -1,229 16 -100 -100
CF after investing acts 633 280 308 921 1,402
Cash dividends -474 -455 -213 -873 -1,358
Equity issue 0 0 0 0 0
Debt issue 121 -997 300 200 300
Convertible debt issue Others -45 1,127 0 0 0
CF from financial acts -398 -326 87 -673 -1,058
Net cashflow 236 -46 395 248 344
Beginning cash 837 1,073 1,026 1,421 1,669
Ending cash 1,073 1,026 1,421 1,669 2,013
Ending net debt 431 383
526
Balance sheet As at 31 Dec
(TWDmn) 1,298 339
FY24 1,073 FY25 1,026 FY26F 1,421 FY27F 1,669 FY28F 2,013
Cash & equivalents Marketable securities 89 2,112 58 2,012 58 2,224 58 2,878 58 3,579
Accounts receivable Inventories 3,654 5,463 6,769
Other current 121 3,807 4,323 165 165 165
assets 7,049 165 8,191 10,232 12,584
Total current assets 7,068
LT investments 23 21 21 21 21
Fixed assets 5,232 5,759 5,647 5,496
Goodwill 5,062 0 0 0 0 0
Other intangible assets Other LT assets 402 431 331 231
Total assets 415 12,736 14,402 1,377 16,231 1,577 18,332 1,877
Short-term debt 12,535 836 1,077
Accounts payable Other current 915 1,178 1,285 1,624 1,013 2,013
liabilities 1,253 1,013 1,013 1,013
Total current 3,676 4,903
liabilities 3,004 3,269 4,215
Long-term debt 1,535 475 475 475 475
Convertible debt Other LT 578 1,715 1,715 1,715 6,405 1,715
liabilities Total liabilities 5,117 5,459 5,866
7,093
Minority interest Preferred stock Common stock Retained earnings Proposed dividends 1,821 4,812 785 1,821 4,656 1,937 5,798 800 1,937 7,088 800 9,826 1,937 8,501 800
Other equity and reserves Total shareholders' equity Total equity & liabilities 7,418 12,535 800 7,277 12,736 8,536 14,402 16,231 11,239 18,332
Liquidity (x)
2.35 2.16 2.23 2.43 67.1 2.57 84.8
Current ratio Interest cover 16.4 0.85 17.5 9.5 0.44 7.2 41.2 0.16 5.1 0.10 3.9 0.07 3.0
Leverage Net debt/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%)
Per share Reported EPS (TWD) 3.71 3.71 1.66 7.51 7.51 11.68 11.68 14.82 14.82
Norm EPS (TWD) 3.71 1.66
FD norm EPS (TWD) 40.73 1.66 7.51 11.68 14.82
BVPS (TWD) DPS (TWD) 39.96 44.06 50.72 58.01
2.60 2.50 1.10 4.51 7.01
Activity (days)
Days receivable 68.0 73.5 52.1 48.5 49.5
145.1 121.0 122.4
Days inventory 153.3 43.0 127.0
Days payable 36.5 38.5 36.0 36.4
176.6 183.8 140.7 135.5
Cash cycle 133.5

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Company profile

SDI is a leading global semiconductor lead frame supplier headquartered in Taiwan. The company is the largest power semiconductor lead frame manufacturer in the world, with its primary focus on automotive, industrial and AI applications.

Valuation Methodology

Our target price of TWD327 is based on 28x 2027F EPS of TWD11.68 vs historical average of 22.5x since 2015 with a range of 5.6x to 70.6x. The benchmark for is this stock is TAIEX.

Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price

Downside risks: 1) slower-than-expected auto, industrial, and consumer electronic demand recovery, 2) delays of new products' mass production, 3) pricing competition from global peers, and 4) dramatic copper price drop in short periods, which should be a negative impact on SDI's near-term GM.

ESG

With the core philosophy of 'sincerity, stability, challenge, and innovation,' SDI is dedicated to environmental protection, social responsibility, respecting human rights, and transparent corporate governance

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

3,500

3,000

10,000

9,000

Financial analysis and forecasts

1,500

Fig. 1: SDI: earnings forecast revision

500

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

New forecasts New forecasts New forecasts Previous forecasts Previous forecasts Previous forecasts Change (%) Change (%) Change (%)
TWDmn 2025A 2026F 2027F 2025A 2026F 2027F 2025A 2026F 2027F
Total sales 10,247 14,830 19,185 10,247 14,127 16,927 - 5.0 13.3
Gross profit 1,365 3,147 4,421 1,365 2,967 3,836 - 6.1 15.3
Operating profit 499 1,917 2,950 499 1,778 2,529 - 7.8 16.7
Pre-tax profit 439 1,933 2,952 439 1,797 2,531 - 7.6 16.6
Net profit 303 1,455 2,263 303 1,348 1,931 - 8.0 17.2
EPS (TWD) 1.66 7.51 11.68 1.66 6.96 9.97 - 7.9 17.2
Margins (%)
Gross margin 13.3 21.2 23.0 13.3 21.0 22.7 - 0.2 0.4
Operating margin 4.9 12.9 15.4 4.9 12.6 14.9 - 0.3 0.4
Pretax margin 4.3 13.0 15.4 4.3 12.7 15.0 - 0.3 0.4
Net margin 3.0 9.8 11.8 3.0 9.5 11.4 - 0.3 0.4

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Fig. 2: SDI: quarterly financial highlights

(TWDmn) 2024 2025 2026F 2027F 2028F 24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F
Net sales 10,815 10,247 14,830 19,185 23,860 2,526 2,595 2,543 2,584 2,805 3,559 4,126 4,340 4,367 4,717 5,009 5,092
COGS 9,094 8,882 11,683 14,764 18,296 2,158 2,323 2,227 2,175 2,269 2,822 3,228 3,364 3,367 3,628 3,848 3,921
Gross profit 1,721 1,365 3,147 4,421 5,565 368 272 316 408 536 737 898 976 1,000 1,089 1,161 1,171
Op expenses 892 866 1,231 1,471 1,833 221 201 213 231 265 321 318 328 345 363 381 382
Op profit 829 499 1,917 2,950 3,732 147 71 104 177 272 417 580 648 655 726 781 789
Non-op income 68 (59) 17 2 2 5 (109) 23 21 20 (3) 0 (1) (1) 2 2 (1)
Pre-tax profit 897 439 1,933 2,952 3,734 152 (38) 127 198 292 414 580 647 654 728 783 788
Net profit 675 303 1,455 2,263 2,871 113 (42) 87 146 222 303 437 494 501 559 598 605
EPS (TWD) 3.71 1.66 7.51 11.68 14.82 0.62 -0.23 0.48 0.80 1.14 1.56 2.25 2.55 2.59 2.89 3.09 3.12
Operating ratios (%)
Gross margin 15.9% 13.3% 21.2% 23.0% 23.3% 14.6% 10.5% 12.4% 15.8% 19.1% 20.7% 21.8% 22.5% 22.9% 23.1% 23.2% 23.0%
Operating margin 7.7% 4.9% 12.9% 15.4% 15.6% 5.8% 2.7% 4.1% 6.9% 9.7% 11.7% 14.1% 14.9% 15.0% 15.4% 15.6% 15.5%
Pre-tax profit margin 8.3% 4.3% 13.0% 15.4% 15.6% 6.0% -1.5% 5.0% 7.7% 10.4% 11.6% 14.1% 14.9% 15.0% 15.4% 15.6% 15.5%
Net profit margin 6.2% 3.0% 9.8% 11.8% 12.0% 4.5% -1.6% 3.4% 5.6% 7.9% 8.5% 10.6% 11.4% 11.5% 11.9% 11.9% 11.9%
Year-to-year (%)
Net sales 0% -5% 45% 29% 24% 6% -7% -12% -6% 11% 37% 62% 68% 56% 33% 21% 17%
Gross profit -7% -21% 131% 40% 26% -6% -49% -31% 18% 46% 171% 184% 139% 86% 48% 29% 20%
Operating profit -15% -40% 284% 54% 26% -12% -76% -54% 32% 85% 486% 460% 266% 141% 74% 35% 22%
Pre-tax profit -10% -51% 340% 53% 26% -30% -112% -36% 12% 92% N.M. 357% 226% 124% 76% 35% 22%
Net profit -9% -55% 380% 56% 27% -31% -119% -44% 7% 97% N.M. 400% 239% 126% 84% 37% 22%
Qtr-to-Qtr (%)
Net sales -8% 3% -2% 2% 9% 27% 16% 5% 1% 8% 6% 2%
Gross profit 6% -26% 16% 29% 31% 37% 22% 9% 2% 9% 7% 1%
Operating profit 9% -52% 46% 71% 54% 53% 39% 12% 1% 11% 8% 1%
Pre-tax profit -14% -125% N.M. 56% 47% 42% 40% 12% 1% 11% 7% 1%
Net profit -17% -138% N.M. 67% 52% 37% 44% 13% 1% 12% 7% 1%

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Fig. 3: Quarterly sales comparison

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Fig. 4: Quarterly auto sales

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

TWDmn

30,000

25,000

Automotive

20,000

15,000

10,000

Charging Station

25.0%

20.0%

Fig. 5: SDI: sales mix by end application

• Power Control Unit

Engine Control Unit

Air Bag Control Module

5,000

Industrial

• Motor control units

• Home applications: Air conditioners, washing

• Traction: High speed train, subway

• 5G base station

Smart Grid / Solar power

•Automotive Industrial Consumer Al datacenter Heat spreader Others

Consumer

Computing / Mobile device

Power charger

• Security : smart card

VCM Spring

Al Lead frame

• Al server

• Power supply Unit

800V HVDO

10.0%

S-Cell

5.0%

0.0%

T-PAK

Clip

TOLT

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Fig. 7: SDI's electronic product offerings

報告_Nomura_順德2351_20260911_006

Source: Company data, Nomura research

Fig. 8: Power discrete ASP and lead time

Source: Future Electronics, Nomura research

Lead Frame

Heat Spreader

Fig. 6: SDI: quarterly GM and OPM

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

(x)

0088&81888888

Jan-15 +

Ju-15 •

Jan-16

Ju-16

— +1 SD

-2 SD

  • P/B

-1 SD

Fig. 9: Select IDMs' AI datacenter revenue outlook

4

IDM AI datacenter outlook
Infineon During 3Q26 earnings call, the company raised AI datacenter related revenue target to be more than €1.6bn/€2.5bn in FY26/27E vs €700mn in FY25.
STM STM expects datacenter and AI infrastructure revenue to reach USD1bn/2bn in 2026/27E during 2Q26 earnings call (previous 2026E outlook: nicely above USD500mn)
Renesas Renesas expects AI and IT infrastructure will drive 40% of its total revenue within the next 3 to 4 years (by 2029-30E)
Onsemi Onsemi expects its AI-related revenue to raise from USD250mn in 2025 to more than double in 2026E

Source: Company data, Nomura research

Fig. 10: SDI: 12M forward P/E

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

(x)

Average

+2 SD

— +1 SD

-2SD

Fig. 11: SDI: 12M forward P/B

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Rating and target price chart (three year history)

SDI Corporation

Appendix A-1

Di

06

07

03

03

05

07

This report has been produced by Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd., Taipei Branch (NITB), Taiwan. See Disclaimers for Nomura Group entity details.