報告_MS_鴻勁7769_3Q26_20261028

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_鴻勁7769_3Q26_20261028_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-29）

原始內容

Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.

Hon Precision(7769.TW, 7769 TT)

Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan

Un ess otherwise noted, a metrics are based on Morgan Stan ey Mode Ware framework

** = Based on consensus methodo ogy

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stan ey Research estimates

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M Update October 28, 2026 05:13 PM GMT

Hon Precision | Asia Pacific

CPO handler on track for 1Q27 mass production; stay OW

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis Financia resu ts versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

Source: Company data, Morgan Stan ey Research

Key takeaways from yesterday's call:

• CPO/CPC: Has shipped a small volume of Insertion 4 OE CPO FT qualification handlers in 4Q2 , which are on track for mass production in 1Q27. Management expects qualification to start in November and end before the year-end. It's also working on a CPC handler project with Japanese ATE and a US customer who showed strong interest.
• Mega Tray andler: Around 20-30% of customer bookings are Mega Trays, while full system ASP would increase by at least 30% from original handlers. Has also shipped the handler for customer qualification.
• Preliminary 2027 outlook: To see strong revenue growth in 2H27 from Mega Trays and CPO-related demand as these higher ASP solutions will start mass production in 1H27, with revenue recognition typically taking 3months.
• Capacity outlook: 2027 remains on a 50% Y/Y pace, while the equipment unit growth might be lower than 50% given the higher complexity of new equipment.

Reiterate OW: Hon Precision is a key beneficiary of the expanding AI testing TAM. We see the recent pullback as an attractive entry point, with the stock now trading at 24x 2027e EPS vs. a 2025-28e earnings CAGR of >70%.

Exhibit 1: Hon Precision 3Q26 Earnings Review

Source: Company data, Morgan Stan ey Research

consensus EPS

M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Hon Precision (7769.TW)

We derive our price target from a residual income model, as we believe this can best capture the long-term value. We assume a 9.8% cost of equity (risk-free rate 2.0% and risk premium .0%), a payout ratio of 5%, a medium-term growth rate of 15%, and a terminal growth rate of 4.0%. Our price target implies 77x 202 e, 45x 2027e and 27x 2028e P/Es.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger-than-expected AI demand
• n Stronger-than-expected market share expansion
• n Faster-than-expected CPO development with more testing needs emerging

Risks to Downside

• n Slower-than-expected AI demand
• n Stronger-than-expected market share gain from peers
• n Slower-than-expected CPO development

M Update