圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-30）

ingest 時建立的「眼見為憑」圖片索引，是 lib/ 嵌圖的唯一真相來源；建立步驟見 ingest_steps.md Step 2.5。

報告_MS_致茂2360_20261029

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_致茂2360_20261029_original.pdf

原始內容

M Idea October 29, 2026 09:20 PM GMT

Chroma Ate Inc. | Asia Pacific

Momentum Seen Sustained into 2027

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged odest shortfall Largely unchanged

Impact to our t esis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-mont

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc

SLT, photonics (transceiver+CPO), and power testin should continue to drive rowth into 2027, with contributions from FT handlers and burn-in ovens likely emer in as well. Stay OW.

3Q26 miss on GM: See details in Results Summary

Growth momentum seen sustained into 4Q26 and 2027: Management indicated that the strong business momentum observed in 3Q26 is likely to stay intact going forward, driven by both ower testing and semi & hotonics businesses. Normalized GM remains at ~60% (2026 guidance of ~60% GM im lies GM back to ~60% in 4Q26 vs. 57.5% in 3Q26).

• Power testing: 60-70% of revenue is AI-related for 2026, and it is ex ected to be sustained into 2027. HVDC testing tools could be the major driver, and it has already received orders from customers.
• SL : 9M26 revenue doubled on a YoY basis. SLT demand used to focus on one major customer, but management indicated that it has added AVGO and MRVL as new customers. Moreover, demand in 4Q26/1H27 should be mostly related to inference a lications, including CPU/ASIC/LPU.
• Photonics: 9M26 revenue grew by 4x on a YoY basis. Demand from transceivers should remain solid and CPO should grow notably in 2027. Chroma focuses on Insertion 3/4o and shi ments for the mass roduction line next year are seen reaching 4-5x vs. that for the ilot line this year. Moreover, it has added another customer for a ilot run in 9M27 and mass roduction in 4Q27. At the industry level, if insertion is excluded from mass roduction, Insertion 3 tool demand should be higher. O ortunities will likely be much larger when CPO enetrates the scale-u network.
• New businesses: FT handlers have been qualified by multi le HPC/CSP customers and orders have been laced. Burn-in ovens have secured the first CSP customer, with more HPC customers ex ected to follow next year. These should be new addressable markets for Chroma in the coming years.

Stay OW: We believe Chroma should continue to benefit from the AI com ute/ networking/ ower testing o ortunities due to its strong customer relationshi , solid execution and outstanding technology ex ertise. Our PT of NT$2,800 is based on 40x 2027e P/E, im lying a PEG of 0.6 (vs. 1.0 over the ast decade).

consensus EPS

Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.

Chroma Ate Inc.(2360.TW, 2360 TT)

Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan

Unless ot erwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework

• § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

** = Based on consensus met odology

e = Morgan Stanley Researc estimates

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M Idea

Results Summary

3Q26 miss on GM:

Off revenue of NT$17,926mn (+32% QoQ/+180% YoY), GM contracted 3 t QoQ, to 57.5%, below our estimate at 60.5% and consensus at 62.7%, mainly owing to a less favorable roduct mix.

O ex of NT$3,141mn (o ex ratio 17.5%) was lower than our estimate at NT$3,797mn (o ex ratio 21.2%) and consensus at NT$3,321mn (o ex ratio 21.7%), reflecting o erating leverage.

This led to o erating rofit of NT$7,167mn (OPM u 1.2 t QoQ, to 40.0%), 2% higher than our estimate at NT$7,040mn (OPM 39.3%) and 14% higher than consensus at NT $6,281mn (OPM 41.0%).

With a narrower non-o gain of NT$186mn, net rofit reached NT$5,647mn (EPS NT $13.37), 2% short of our estimate at NT$5,790mn (EPS NT$13.71) and 6% short of consensus at NT$5,317mn (EPS NT$12.59).

Exhibit 1: Chroma 3Q26 r sults summary

Sourc : Company data, Facts t cons nsus, Morgan Stanl y R s arch stimat s M Idea

A Closer Look

Test instrument and ATS segment looks set to reach another record high in 2026

Revenue for the segment increased 55% YoY to NT$10,546mn (37% of the mix) in 2025. We estimate it will rise 118% YoY to NT$24,564mn (40% of the mix) in 2026. The everincreasing ower consum tion of AI clusters should continue to drive demand for higher s ec testing tools. Along with our forecast of a 75% CAGR for global ower su ly unit demand in the coming three years (see our re ort), this should remain a major driver for Chroma, in our view.

Exhibit 2: T st Instrum nt and ATS R v nu (Annual)

Exhibit 3: T st Instrum nt and ATS R v nu Mix

Sourc : Company data, Morgan Stanl y R s arch (E) stimat s Sourc : Company data, Morgan Stanl y R s arch (E) stimat s

Multiple dri ers in the semiconductor business

System-le el testing (SLT) business

SLT should benefit from the ca ex cycle of NVIDIA's Rubin generation GPU, AMD's MI450 GPU and more ASIC accelerators. Management ointed out that discrete testing tools are still referred by major customers. We are also seeing more HPC chi designers ado ting the system level testing rocess to make sure defects won't be incor orated into the AI systems. We believe Chroma, as the first mover in this market, should benefit from increasing chi volume, as well as higher TDP.

Metrology business

The metrology business should continue to benefit from current advanced ackaging architectures from its foundry and OSAT customers. It is confident that the erformance of its tools can win future architecture rojects, which our industry checks suggest should have higher metrology density.

M Idea

Exhibit 4: Chroma - Off rings for M trology in Advanc d Packaging

Sourc : Chroma

Chroma's metrology equi ment em loys white light interferometry technology. The basic working rinci le is that white light is emitted on the reference mirror and the sam le, which are laced at the same distance from the light source. The reflected beams from the reference mirror and sam le surface are then received by a light sensor.

Interference occurs when two light beams collide, which could cause them to either strengthen or weaken, de ending on the hase of the two light beams. Thus, by measuring the intensity of the combined light beams, the distance between light sensor and multi le oints on the target surface can be calculated through an algorithm. This can then be used to measure the dimensions of the structure or the alignment of layers.

Exhibit 5: Conc pt of Light Int rf r nc

Sourc : K y nc

Exhibit 6: S tup of Int rf rom t r

Sourc : Wikip dia

CPO contribution to start from 2026

Chroma has been qualified for o tical engine testing in Insertion 3 and system-level testing in Insertion 4, and there might be incremental o ortunities if su ly chain layers' rogress falls behind for testing equi ment in Insertion 2. Over the longer term, Chroma also as ires to artici ate in the PIC o tical/electrical/reliability testing in Insertion 1.

M Idea

Exhibit 7: Chroma's Off rings in CPO

CPO Test Solutions

Sourc : Chroma

FT handlers to add another re enue stream

In HPC testing, Chroma used to focus mostly on the SLT side, although it did unveil its first HPC FT handler earlier this year and is now going through the qualification rocess. We believe this is a natural extension of its ex ertise and customer relationshi s accumulated in SLTs. We ex ect Chroma to gain more traction in FT handlers for AI HPCs in 2027.

Exhibit 8: Chroma's FT Handl r Off ring

Advanced Package FT Test Hander 3160-H

• Dual-site
• 3000W cooling
• Small footprint
• Optical Auto-Alignment

Sourc : Chroma

129% YoY growth seen for the semiconductor and photonics business in 2026

Overall, we forecast semiconductor and hotonics revenue will grow 129% YoY in 2026, accounting for 36% of Chroma's mix.

M Idea

Exhibit 9: S mi and Photonics R v nu (Annual)

Sourc : Company data, Morgan Stanl y R s arch (E) stimat s Sourc : Company data, Morgan Stanl y R s arch R s arch (E) stimat s M Idea

Exhibit 10: S mi and Photonics R v nu Mix

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Chroma Ate Inc. (2360.TW)

Base case, 40x 2027e P/E. We use P/E as our valuation methodology because we think it better ca tures Chroma's earnings growth momentum. The stock traded at an average valuation of ~19x P/E during 2014-25 with an o erating rofit CAGR of 20%, im lying a PEG of 1.0. We think our target multi le of 40x is justified by the 68% o erating rofit CAGR we roject for 2025-28.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-ex ected macro conditions
• n Stronger semi and hotonics and ower testing demand
• nMargin im rovement via better roduct mix
• n Better o ex control

Risks to Downside

• nMacro slowdown
• n Softer-than-ex ected AI ca ex
• n Slower rogress in the advanced ackaging ca acity ex ansion
• nWeaker consumer electronics and automobile related demand
• nMargin contraction arising from lack of revenue scale and increasing o ex

M Idea

Disc osure Section

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