PDF 原檔：報告_MS_自動化產業JMTBA9月訂單_20261012_original.pdf
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59KB | 真資料圖 | AirTAC（1590.TW）評等與目標價沿革圖，藍線為股價，紅色虛線階梯為歷次目標價（1050→1150→1130→1050→1000→1050→1030→1130→1000→1180→1230→2000），標記 E/I、O/I；時間軸 2023/10–2026/10（與同日 MS 亞德客報告 _002.png 內容相同） |
報告_MS_自動化產業JMTBA9月訂單_20261012_002.png |
58KB | 真資料圖 | Hiwin（2049.TW）評等與目標價沿革圖，藍線為股價，紅色虛線階梯為歷次目標價（205→220→210→205→225→310→160→210→300→380→400→450），標記 E/I、U/I、O/I；時間軸 2023/10–2026/10（與同日 MS 亞德客報告 _003.png 內容相同） |
原始內容
M Idea October 12, 2026 06:26 PM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
Automation - Read-across from Preliminary JMTBA September 2026 rders
In this report, we focus on preliminary JMTBA orders, which we believe could be a catalyst for AirTAC's and Hiwin's share prices.
According to the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association (JMTBA), headline orders grew 1 % MoM and 60% YoY in September 2026 (vs. +2% MoM/+65% YoY in August 2026), to ¥22 bn.
- Domestic orders were +24 MoM/+46 YoY (vs. -3 MoM/+62 YoY in August), at ¥64bn.
- Overseas orders were +9 MoM/+67 YoY (vs. +5 MoM/+66 YoY in August), at ¥159bn.
Our view:
- We think the sequential growth in overseas orders was consistent with seasonality, while the strength on a YoY basis continued to point to an upcycle scenario.
- Within overseas orders, we think China and Europe may have outperformed, as manufacturing PMIs held up better (50.1/52.9 for China/Europe in September vs. 49.8/52.7 in August). N.A is likely to be softer compared to other regions, as its manufacturing PMI edged down slightly to 54.5 in September (vs. 54.6 in August).
- We remain OW on both AirTAC (1590.TW) and Hiwin (2049.TW) as we see company-specific drivers on top of the industry recovery trend:
- ° Airtac should continue to benefit from its own market share gains, and valuation appears undemanding at 18x 2027e P/E (vs. 25x average since 2020).
- ° Hiwin should see margin expansion in the coming quarters, driven by higher utilization and price hikes, which we believe could be share price catalysts. Current valuation of 29x 2027 P/E implies upside vs. peak cycle valuation at 35-40x P/E.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Derrick Yang
Equity Analyst D rrick.Yang@morganstanl y.com
Vivi Huang
R s arch Associat Vivi.Huang@morganstanl y.com
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Andy Meng, CFA
Equity Analyst
+886 2 2730-2862
+886 2 2730-2860
+852 2239-7689
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific Industry View In-Line
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Idea
Alpha ignals Catalyst Event Reaction
| Company / Catalyst | Date | Impact to thesis | Catalyst versus expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| AirTAC International 1590.TW | |||
| Preliminary JMTBA eptember 2026 Orders | 12 Oct 2026 | Unchanged | In-line |
| Hiwin Technologies Corp. 2049.TW | |||
| Preliminary JMTBA eptember 2026 Orders | 12 Oct 2026 | Unchanged | In-line |
M Idea
Valuation Methodology and Risks
AirTAC International (1590.TW)
Base case, 29x 2027e P/E. We believe this methodology better captures earnings growth momentum for industrial automation component plays (market sentiment moves along with business cycles). As the industry enters an up-cycle, we think applying a near-peak cycle valuation of 29x P/E is reasonable given the stronger business outlook.
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger macroeconomic climate in China
- n Stronger-than-expected demand from industrial automation
Risks to Downside
- n Sharper economic downturn in China
- nMiniature linear guideway business development taking more time
- n Larger-than-expected investment in new products but weaker-than-expected demand
Hiwin Tec nologies Corp. (2049.TW)
Base case, P/E. We think this valuation methodology better captures Hiwin's earnings growth momentum, as its valuation tends to move with the business cycle. We apply a target multiple of 38x to our 2027 EPS estimate. We view this multiple as justified by the 47 operating profit CAGR we project for 2025-28.
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger industrial automation demand pickup.
- nMarket share gains.
- n Earlier-than-expected revenue contribution from humanoids.
Risks to Downside
- nWeaker industrial automation demand.
- nMore pricing pressure.
- nMarket share loss.
- nMore broad-based impact on the global economy from geopolitical risks.
M Idea
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Hardware
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (10/12/2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Meng, CFA | ||
| AAC Technologies Holdings (2018.HK) | O (01/29/2024) | HK$36.06 |
| Accelink Technologies Co. Ltd. (002281. Z) | U (05/12/2022) | Rmb140.17 |
| BYD Electronics (0285.HK) | O (04/28/2023) | HK$22.80 |
| China TransInfo Technology Co Ltd (002373. Z) | E (07/18/2023) | Rmb7.44 |
| Dahua Technology Co. Ltd. (002236. Z) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb15.51 |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc Ltd (300502. Z) | O (02/27/2026) | Rmb347.60 |
| Genius Electronic Optical Co. Ltd. (3406.TW) | U (09/10/2026) | NT$1,070.00 |
| GoerTek Inc (002241. Z) | E (08/14/2026) | Rmb20.85 |
| Gosuncn Technology Group Co Ltd (300098. Z) | U (11/07/2022) | Rmb4.17 |
| HIKVision Digital Technology (002415. Z) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb33.24 |
| Largan Precision (3008.TW) | E (09/10/2026) | NT$7,325.00 |
| LianChuang Electronic Technology Co Ltd (002036. Z) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb5.73 |
| Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (002600. Z) | U (04/23/2025) | Rmb10.88 |
| Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (1688.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$4.97 |
| Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (2475.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$49.50 |
| Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475. Z) | O (10/24/2016) | Rmb46.32 |
| OFILM Group Co Ltd (002456. Z) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb6.36 |
| Q Technology (Group) Company Ltd (1478.HK) | U (03/23/2026) | HK$4.79 |
| Quectel Wireless olutions Co Ltd (603236. ) | E (10/09/2024) | Rmb69.76 |
| hanghai Conant Optical Co Ltd (2276.HK) | O (04/10/2026) | HK$34.68 |
| henzhen Transsion Holdings Co Ltd (688036. ) | E (03/23/2026) | Rmb49.36 |
| unny Optical (2382.HK) | E (03/23/2026) | HK$58.80 |
| uzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd. (300394. Z) | E (11/06/2025) | Rmb229.54 |
| Wingtech Technology Co Ltd (600745. ) | U (05/18/2026) | Rmb14.89 HK$24.52 |
| Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK) Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable J C Ltd (601869. | O (04/14/2021) U (10/13/2021) | Rmb362.18 |
| ) Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable J C Ltd (6869.HK) | O (07/15/2026) | |
| Yongxin Optics Co Ltd (603297. ) | E (11/15/2022) | HK$156.10 Rmb99.88 |
| Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co Ltd (002273. Z) | O (11/15/2022) | Rmb21.36 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (300308. Z) | O (09/07/2026) | Rmb724.47 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (3308.HK) | O (09/07/2026) | HK$903.00 |
| ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) | O (06/04/2026) | HK$20.36 |
| ZTE Corporation (000063. Z) | E (06/04/2026) | Rmb28.44 |
| Derrick Yang | ||
| Accton Technology Corporation (2345.TW) | O (06/06/2024) | NT$2,130.00 |
| Advantech (2395.TW) | O (01/20/2021) | NT$721.00 |
| AirTAC International (1590.TW) | O (04/16/2025) | NT$1,210.00 |
| Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (3017.TW) | O (07/30/2024) | NT$3,385.00 |
| AU Optronics (2409.TW) | E (02/10/2026) | NT$35.55 |
| Auras Technology Co Ltd (3324.TWO) | E (05/04/2023) | NT$1,540.00 |
| Bizlink (3665.TW) | O (03/10/2025) | NT$2,355.00 |
| BOE Technology (000725. Z) | O (09/06/2019) | Rmb5.33 |
| Chenbro (8210.TW) | O (07/23/2025) | NT$861.00 |
| Chroma Ate Inc. (2360.TW) | O (10/05/2021) | NT$2,365.00 |
| Delta Electronics Inc. (2308.TW) | O (07/13/2017) | NT$1,900.00 |
| E Ink Holdings Inc. (8069.TWO) | E (08/10/2026) | NT$149.00 |
| Ennostar Inc (3714.TW) | U (09/23/2022) | NT$63.80 |
| Fositek Corp (6805.TW) | O (06/25/2025) | NT$2,270.00 |
| Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW) | O (03/30/2026) | NT$338.00 |
| Innolux (3481.TW) | E (04/07/2025) | NT$51.30 |
| King lide Works Co. Ltd. (2059.TW) | O (11/08/2023) | NT$10,580.00 |
M Idea
| Lens Technology (300433. Z) | E (07/22/2020) | Rmb26.73 |
|---|---|---|
| Lite-On Technology (2301.TW) | E (01/15/2025) | NT$288.00 |
| TCL Corp. (000100. Z) | E (04/07/2025) | Rmb4.52 |
| Tianma Microelectronics (000050. Z) | U (01/24/2018) | Rmb6.08 |
| Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co Ltd (300567. Z) | E (11/26/2021) | Rmb167.00 |
| Howard Kao | ||
| Acer Inc. (2353.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$31.35 |
| Asustek Computer Inc. (2357.TW) | U (11/16/2025) | NT$977.00 |
| Catcher Technology (2474.TW) | U (11/17/2025) | NT$194.50 |
| Compal Electronics (2324.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$36.60 |
| Elite Material Co. (2383.TW) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$6,150.00 |
| FIT Hon Teng Ltd (6088.HK) | O (11/03/2025) | HK$4.43 |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. (601138. ) | O (07/10/2019) | Rmb52.05 |
| Giga-Byte Technology Co. Ltd. (2376.TW) | E (11/16/2025) | NT$356.00 |
| Gold Circuit Electronics Ltd. (2368.TW) | O (10/06/2022) | NT$1,235.00 |
| Hon Hai Precision (2317.TW) | O (03/15/2024) | NT$244.50 |
| Inspur Electronic Information (000977. Z) | E (08/28/2023) | Rmb62.05 |
| Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd. (1888.HK) | O (09/14/2026) | HK$46.80 |
| LandMark Optoelectronics Corporation (3081.TWO) | E (03/26/2026) | NT$3,025.00 |
| Lenovo (0992.HK) | O (07/10/2026) | HK$32.34 |
| Lotes Co. Ltd. (3533.TW) | E (05/12/2025) | NT$1,880.00 |
| Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,440.00 |
| Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW) | E (03/25/2026) | NT$98.60 |
| Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW) | O (05/01/2023) | NT$322.00 |
| hengyi Technology Co Ltd. (600183. ) | E (05/26/2022) | Rmb120.00 |
| hennan Circuits Co Ltd (002916. Z) | E (08/24/2023) | Rmb327.78 |
| Unimicron (3037.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,255.00 |
| Visual Photonics Epitaxy Co Ltd (2455.TW) | E (09/11/2023) | NT$564.00 |
| Wistron Corporation (3231.TW) | O (07/12/2023) | NT$189.50 |
| Wiwynn Corp (6669.TW) | O (11/10/2025) | NT$2,275.00 |
| Yageo Corp. (2327.TW) | O (10/28/2025) | NT$636.00 |
| Zhen Ding (4958.TW) | ++ | NT$581.00 |
| Irene Yen | ||
| Co-Tech Development Corp. (8358.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$522.00 |
| Taiwan Union Technology Corporation (6274.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$1,735.00 |
Stock Ratings ar subj ct to chang . Pl as s lat st r s arch for ach company.
- Historical pric s ar not split adjust d.