報告_MS_美國CPU大廠3Q26法說影響_20261102

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_美國CPU大廠3Q26法說影響_20261102_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-11-03）

Step 2.5 眼見為憑索引，是 lib/ 嵌圖的唯一真相來源。

檔名	size	分類	親眼所見內容
`報告_MS_美國CPU大廠3Q26法說影響_20261102_001.png`	62KB	真資料圖	全球 PC 出貨量（藍色長條，mn units，左軸）與 YoY（折線，右軸）2004–2028E；2026E 約 -14%、2027E 約 -11%、2028E 約 +2%，紅色水平線為參考線

校正紀錄（2026-11-03）

PyMuPDF 重抽 PDF 文字層核對：OCR 把數字 1／2／9 遺失，『H 6 PC units to fall 0%+』應為『2H26 PC units to fall 20%+』；MS 估計『~ 5%』應為『~25% y/y decline』；『server CPU unit growth of 30%+ in both 0 6 and 0 7』應為 2026 與 2027；『US$ 00bn』應為『>US$200bn』；『H 7』應為『2H27』。

原始內容

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Howard Kao Equity Analyst H ward.Ka @m rganstanley.c m	+886 2 2730-2989
Irene Yen Equity Analyst Irene.Yen@m rganstanley.c m	+886 2 2730-2869
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@m rganstanley.c m	+852 2239-7689

Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific Industry View In-Line

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M Update November 2, 2026 03:21 AM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

Key US CPU vendor's 3Q26 earnings call - key implications for our coverage

Key Takeaways

We view negative PC comments as more bearish for OEMs and ODMs positioned in the lower end consumer segment, like Acer and Compal.
Strong CPU unit growth would be positive for Wiwynn, Lenovo, and Lotes.
Tighter ABF substrate supply and stronger pricing would be positive for Unimicron and NYPCB's revenue and margins.

(-) PC OEMs and ODMs: Intel (covered by Joseph Moore) expects H 6 PC units to fall 0%+ y/y as OEMs aggressively cut inventories amid weaker sell-through; the correction has accelerated over the past two months. This aligns with Morgan Stanley's estimate at a ~ 5% y/y decline (report link).

(+) Server OEMs and ODMs: Intel guides for server CPU unit growth of 30%+ in both 0 6 and 0 7, with upside if wafer/substrate supply improves. It sees server CPU TAM rising from US$40bn today to >US$ 00bn in five years, driven mainly by AI agents.

(+) ABF subs ra es: Most of the previously discussed ~40% capacity increase is due in H 7; Intel expects key component purchase commitments to rise sharply over the next several quarters. Intel is also prioritizing securing substrate capacity and improving yields for the EMIB-T. Complex designs add yield risk, which could lower effective output, worsening ABF substrate shortages but adding further support for pricing.

Exhibit 1: W rldwide PC Vend r Ranking, 3Q26

Worldwide PC Vendor Ranking, 3Q26

Rank Vendor	3Q26 Shipments	3Q26 Market share	2Q26 Shipments	2Q26 Market share	3Q25 Shipments	3Q25 Market share	QoQ	YoY
1 Lenovo	14,933	23.8%	16,659	24.2%	19,305	24.6%	-10%	-23%
2 HP	10,344	16.5%	13,016	18.9%	14,975	19.1%	-21%	-31%
3 Dell	7,581	12.1%	9,286	13.5%	10,107	12.9%	-18%	-25%
4 Apple	5,946	9.5%	7,162	10.4%	6,702	8.5%	-17%	-11%
5 ASUS	5,459	8.7%	4,995	7.2%	5,974	7.6%	9%	-9%
Others	18,422	29.4%	17,859	25.9%	21,431	27.3%	3%	-14%
Total	62,685		68,977		78,495		-9%	-20%

S urce: IDC, M rgan Stanley Research.

M Update

Exhibit : M rgan Stanley's PC f recast

S urce: IDC, M rgan Stanley Research estimates (E) based n the MS Gl bal PC M del.