報告_MS_硬體OEM前瞻_20260810

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_硬體OEM前瞻_20260810_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-11）

002/003/004 三張為典型 MS 個股評等/目標價沿革頁首圖，但 trimmed／parsed 文字皆無對應 wikilink 錨點可判斷歸屬公司（見內文，僅 001 有文字錨點），且圖面本身未印公司名稱或代號；依規則「親眼所見內容禁止憑文字脈絡編」，本次不嵌入任何公司頁，僅如實記錄於此供日後如有更明確來源時核對。

原始內容

M August 10, 2026 01:48 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

Hardware OEMs: 2Q Earnings Previews

We preview 2Q earnings for the Greater China OEMs in the upcoming results season in August.

Key Takeaways

• We expect Lenovo to report 2Q adjusted net income (non-HKFRS) 12% above the Street.
• We expect Giga-Byte to report 2Q EPS 15% above the Street with higher OpM (we forecast 6.1% vs. the Street at 5.5%).
• We expect Asustek to report 2Q EPS 34% above the Street with higher OpM (we forecast 5.9% vs. the Street at 4.6%).

For more details on our broader market view and reasons for earnings estimate changes, please see:

Global Insight: AI + Chipflation: Two Tailwinds, One Trade...For Now;

our Lenovo upgrade report: Lenovo: From Memory Headwind to Structural Tailwind (9 Jul 2026): and our Lenovo 2Q preview report: Lenovo: 1QF27/2Q26 Preview - Increasing Conviction in ISG (6 Aug 2026).

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Howard Kao

Equity Analyst Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2989

Irene Yen

Research Associate

Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2869

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Andy Meng, CFA

Equity Analyst

Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com

+852 2239-7689

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific

Industry View

In-Line

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Idea

M

AlphaSignals Earnings Preview

Focus KPI

Giga-Byte Technology Co. Ltd.

2Q Operating margin

Focus KPI Surprise

2376.TW

• Likely upside surprise

Likely impact to consensus EPS*

Modest revision higher

• We are 60bp above the Street on 2Q operating margin as we expect better operating leverage via higher revenue.

Asustek Computer Inc.

2Q operating margin

• Likely upside surprise
• Modest revision higher

2357.TW

• We expect stronger AI server mix and less marketing expense to drive higher operating margin in 2Q. Our operating margin estimate is 5.9% for 2Q, 120bp above the Street.

Lenovo 0992.HK

2Q26/F1Q27 adjusted net profit

• Likely upside surprise
• Modest revision higher
• Our adjusted net income forecast is ~US$788mn (+41% q/q, +102% y/y), 12% above the Street, led mainly by higher ISG revenue and margin.
• *Likely impact to consensus EPS is for the next 12 months Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Year to Mar. 31 (USSm)

COGS

Actual

% Q/Q

% Y/Y

Cons.

M

2Q Previews

Income tax

Net income (HKFRS)

Adjusted net income (Non-HKFRS)

EPS-Basic(US cents)

EPS-Basic (HK cents)

Margins

Gross margin

Operating margin

Pretax margin

Net margin

(596)

(151)

(746)

(134)

(954)

788

(60.31)

(7.78)

16.6%

-2.5%

-3.1%

-4.0%

NM

NM

NM

NM

22,499

(18.887)

3,612

(2.868)

744

(187)

557

(359)

Lenovo: We are 12% above the Street on adjusted net income (non-HKFRS) 1.37

10.70

We forecast a strong start to F2027e, with 1Q27 adjusted net income of US$788mn, up 102% y/y and 12% above consensus, driven primarily by stronger margins rather than materially higher revenue. On revenue, our forecast of US$24bn is 7% above consensus. We expect gross margin to expand to 16.6% (+190bp y/y), reflecting continued pricing adjustments and Lenovo's ability to pass through higher component costs despite elevated memory prices.

However, we expect Lenovo to record a substantial non-cash charge related to "fair value loss on derivative financial liabilities relating to warrants," potentially resulting in a reported net loss (HKFRS). We encourage looking at net income adjusted for non-cash items, which is US$788mn (+41% q/q, +102% y/y) on our estimates - 12% above the Street, driven by the higher ISG revenue and margin.

For more details on our Lenovo upgrade and C2Q/F1Q preview, please see Lenovo: From Memory Headwind to Structural Tailwind (9 Jul 2026) and Lenovo: 1QF27/2Q26 Preview Increasing Conviction in ISG (6 Aug 2026)

Exhibit 1: We are 7% above consensus on revenue and 12% above on adjusted net profit (non-HKFRS)

Source: Visible Alpha, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

% Diff

7%

10%

NM

NM

NT$mn

COGS

Actual

2Q26E Results

Q0Q

YoY

Cons Variance

M

Operating income

Non-operating income

Pre-tax income

Income tax

Net income

EPS (NT$)

Margins (%)

Gross margin

Operating margin

Pre-tax margin

Net margin

Слила. Малія Люка лемак Сакіли Палалелк

8,797

105°

8,902

-2,671

5,855

8.74

10.3%

6.1%

6.2%

4.1%

19%

NM'

26%

89%

11%

11%

ppt

-1.7

-1.0

-0.5

-1.0

13%

13%

13%

-2%

Giga-Byte: We are 15% above the Street on EPS

We expect Giga-Byte's 2Q26 results to outperform market expectations, driven by stronger AI server demand and decent motherboard and graphics card shipments. Preliminary revenue reached ~NT$144.2bn (+37% q/q and 41% y/y), beating consensus by 13%. This strength is expected to flow through to profitability. We forecast gross margin at 10.3%, in line with consensus, while operating margin is projected to improve to 6.1%, 60bp ahead of expectations, reflecting favorable operating leverage, with operating income of NT$8.8bn (+19% q/q, +66% y/y) exceeding consensus by 26%. We forecast net income of NT$5.9bn and EPS of NT$8.74, 15% above consensus estimates.

Overall, the preview points to another strong quarter of earnings outperformance, supported by healthy demand and improving profitability.

Exhibit 2: Giga-Byte: our 2Q estimates vs. consensus - we are 15% above the Street on 2Q EPS

Source: Visible Alpha, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

M

Asustek: We are 34% above the Street on EPS

We expect a significant 2Q26 beat, driven by robust AI server momentum and resilient PC demand and profitability. Preliminary revenue came in at NT$241.1bn (+24% q/q and 39% y/y), 7% above consensus. The stronger top line, together with operating leverage, is expected to lift operating income to NT$14.2bn (+35% q/q, +138% y/y), exceeding Street estimates by 35%. We estimate pretax income at NT$18.1bn, 36% above consensus, with net income of NT$14.2bn and EPS of NT$19.15, 34% above consensus estimates. Although we project gross margin to edge down sequentially to 12.7% because of product mix, operating margin is expected to improve to 5.9%, 120bp above consensus, reflecting better cost absorption, operating leverage and expense control.

Overall, our preview suggests another quarter of meaningful earnings outperformance, underpinned by strong revenue growth and expanding operating profitability.

Exhibit 3: Asustek: Our 2Q estimates vs. consensus - we are 34% above the Street on 2Q EPS

Source: Visible Alpha, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

M

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Lenovo (0992.HK)

Base case, residual income model. Our key assumptions include a cost of equity of 9.3% (based on a beta of 1.1, risk-free rate of 2.0%), a medium-term growth rate of 5.0%, and a terminal growth rate of 3.0%.

Risks to Upside

• n Faster-than-expected smartphone and data center turnaround
• n Stronger PC demand recovery in China
• n Better cost savings and improved product mix
• n Lower-than-expected increase in memory price

Risks to Downside

• n Slower-than-expected smartphone and data center turnaround
• n Weaker PC demand recovery in China
• n Deterioration in cost savings and product mix
• n Higher-than-expected increase in memory price

Asustek Computer Inc. (2357.TW)

Base case, sum of the parts:

We apply a 9x multiple to Asustek's 2026 brand profits. This is somewhat below the midpoint of its historical band of 7-15x since 2009, which we view as fair because memory prices are rising and will have a negative impact on margins.

We value its stakes in Pegatron and Advantech based on our price targets in proportion to Asustek's holdings.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger global NB demand
• n Stronger AI server demand
• n Stronger ROG Ally demand
• n Better margin recovery
• n Slower rise of memory prices

Risks to Downside

• n Weaker global NB demand
• n Weaker AI server demand
• n Weaker ROG Ally demand
• n Slower margin recovery
• n Memory prices rises faster than expected

Giga-Byte Technology Co. Ltd. (2376.TW)

Base case, multistage residual income valuation model. Key assumptions: cost of equity 7.3% (risk-free rate 1%, equity risk premium 6.0% and beta of 1.0), medium-term growth rate 6%,

M

terminal growth rate 3%.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-expected GPU demand
• n Better-than-expected gaming motherboard demand
• n Better-than-expected server demand from Tier 2/Tier 3 cloud customers
• n Faster-than-expected AI server penetration rate

Risks to Downside

• n Weaker-than-expected GPU demand
• n Weaker-than-expected gaming motherboard demand
• n Weaker-than-expected server demand from Tier 2/Tier 3 cloud customers
• n Slower-than-expected AI server penetration rate

M

Disclosure Section

The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research), and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financial services license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of Australian financial services license No. 240813, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate Identification No (CIN) U22990MH1998PTC115305, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India ('SEBI') and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001105); Stock Broker (SEBI Stock Broker Registration No. INZ000244438), Merchant Banker (SEBI Registration No. INM000011203), and depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (SEBI Registration No. IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021) having registered office at Altimus, Level 39 & 40, Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400018, India; Telephone no. +91-22-61181000; Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email: tejarshi.hardas@morganstanley.com; Grievance officer details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email: msic-compliance@morganstanley.com which accepts the responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research, and their affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley"). Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited (MSICPL) may use AI tools in providing research services. All recommendations contained herein are made by the duly qualified research analysts.

For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website at www.morganstanley.com/eqr/disclosures/webapp/generalresearch, or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management), New York, NY, 10036 USA.

For valuation methodology and risks associated with any recommendation, rating or price target referenced in this research report, please contact the Client Support Team as follows: US/Canada +1 800 303-2495; Hong Kong +852 2848-5999; Latin America +1 718 754-5444 (U.S.); London +44 (0)20-7425-8169; Singapore +65 6834-6860; Sydney +61 (0)2-9770-1505; Tokyo +81 (0)3-6836-9000. Alternatively you may contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management), New York, NY 10036 USA.