報告_MS_工業自動化JMTBA_20260812

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_工業自動化JMTBA_20260812_original.pdf

原始內容

M August 12, 2026 02:53 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

Automation - Read-across from Preliminary JMTBA July 2026 Orders

In this report, we focus on preliminary JMTBA orders, which we believe could be a catalyst for AirTAC's and Hiwin's share prices.

According to the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association (JMTBA), headline orders declined 5% MoM but grew 50% YoY in July 2026 (vs. +15% MoM/+53% YoY in June 2026), to ¥193bn.

• Domestic orders were -8% MoM/+50% YoY (vs. +28% MoM/+46% YoY in June), at ¥53bn.
• Overseas orders were -4% MoM/+51% YoY (vs. +10% MoM/+56% YoY in June), at ¥140bn.

Our view:

• We think the sequential decline in overseas orders was consistent with seasonality, while growth remains strong on a YoY basis. Within overseas orders, we think North America and Europe may have outperformed, as manufacturing PMIs held up better (55.6/51.9 for NA/Europe in July vs. 53.3/51.4 in June). On the other hand, China may have softened a bit, as manufacturing PMI edged down to 49.2 in July (vs. 50.3 in June).
• We remain OW on both AirTAC (1590.TW) and Hiwin (2049.TW) as we see company-specific drivers on top of the industry recovery trend:
• AirTAC should continue to benefit from its own market share gains, and valuation appears undemanding at 23x 2027e P/E (vs. 25x average since 2020).
• Hiwin should see margin expansion in the coming quarters, driven by higher utilization and price hikes, which we believe could be share price catalysts. Although current valuation of 34x 2027 P/E does not appear inexpensive, its peak cycle valuation could reach 35-40x P/E.

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific | Industry View：In-Line

AlphaSignals Catalyst Event Reaction

Valuation Methodology and Risks

AirTAC International (1590.TW)

Base case, 29x 2027e P/E. We believe this methodology better captures earnings growth momentum for industrial automation component plays (market sentiment moves along with business cycles). As the industry enters an up-cycle, we think applying a near-peak cycle valuation of 29x P/E is reasonable given the stronger business outlook.

Risks to Upside：Stronger macroeconomic climate in China；Stronger-than-expected demand from industrial automation。

Risks to Downside：Sharper economic downturn in China；Miniature linear guideway business development taking more time；Larger-than-expected investment in new products but weaker-than-expected demand。

Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW)

Base case, P/E. We think this valuation methodology better captures Hiwin's earnings growth momentum, as its valuation tends to move with the business cycle. We apply a target multiple of 37x to our 2027 EPS estimate. We view this multiple as justified by the 44% operating profit CAGR we project for 2025-28.

Risks to Upside：Stronger industrial automation demand pickup；Market share gains；Earlier-than-expected revenue contribution from humanoids。

Risks to Downside：Weaker industrial automation demand；More pricing pressure；Market share loss；More broad-based impact on the global economy from geopolitical risks。

Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History（圖表，見圖片清單）

AirTAC International (1590.TW) 與 Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW) 各附一張股價／評等／目標價沿革圖（2021/08-2026/08）。

以下法遵樣板段落（Disclosure Section 全文、Stock Ratings 定義、Global Stock Ratings Distribution、Industry Coverage 個股清單等，見原始 PDF）與其他 MS 報告重複，trim 時省略，不影響研究內容完整性。

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-13）