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報告_MS_台積電2330_20261015

更新 2026-10-16
#來源/券商報告#公司/台積電#產業/晶圓代工

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_台積電2330_20261015_original.pdf

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_MS_台積電2330_20261015_002.png 44KB 真資料圖 TSMC P/B vs ROE：2011–2026 P/B 走勢，平均 3.8x，ROE 階梯線（2026 約 36%）
報告_MS_台積電2330_20261015_003.png 48KB 真資料圖 共識目標價分布（NT$2,010–5,000）與 Risk Reward 圖：Bull NT$3,720（+52.46%）、Base NT$3,088（+26.56%）、Bear NT$1,700（-30.33%）
報告_MS_台積電2330_20261015_007.png 61KB 真資料圖 MS 對 2330 的目標價沿革（2023-10 至 2026-10，由 718 升至 3,088）

原始內容

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Charlie Chan Charlie Chan Charlie Chan Charlie Chan Charlie Chan
Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst
C arlie.C an@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-1725 Daniel Yen, CFA C arlie.C an@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-1725 Daniel Yen, CFA C arlie.C an@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-1725 Daniel Yen, CFA C arlie.C an@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-1725 Daniel Yen, CFA C arlie.C an@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-1725 Daniel Yen, CFA
Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2863 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Daisy Dai, CFA Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2863 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Daisy Dai, CFA Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2863 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Daisy Dai, CFA Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2863 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Daisy Dai, CFA Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2863 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Daisy Dai, CFA
Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ +852 2848-7310 +852 2848-7310
L cas Wang L cas Wang L cas Wang L cas Wang L cas Wang
Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst
Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2875 +886 2 2730-2875
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Ethan Jia Ethan Jia Ethan Jia Ethan Jia Ethan Jia
Researc Associate Researc Associate Researc Associate Researc Associate Researc Associate
Et an.Jia@morganstanley.com Et an.Jia@morganstanley.com Et an.Jia@morganstanley.com +852 3963-2287 +852 3963-2287
Henry Zhao Henry Zhao Henry Zhao Henry Zhao Henry Zhao
Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst
Henry.Z ao@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7731 TSMC(2330.TW, 2330 TT) Henry.Z ao@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7731 TSMC(2330.TW, 2330 TT) Henry.Z ao@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7731 TSMC(2330.TW, 2330 TT) Henry.Z ao@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7731 TSMC(2330.TW, 2330 TT) Henry.Z ao@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7731 TSMC(2330.TW, 2330 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
Stock Rating Overweight Stock Rating Overweight Stock Rating Overweight Stock Rating Overweight Stock Rating Overweight
Industry View Attractive Industry View Attractive Industry View Attractive Industry View Attractive Industry View Attractive
Price target NT$3,088.00 Price target NT$3,088.00 Price target NT$3,088.00 Price target NT$3,088.00 Price target NT$3,088.00
Up/downside to price target (%) 27 Up/downside to price target (%) 27 Up/downside to price target (%) 27 Up/downside to price target (%) 27 Up/downside to price target (%) 27
hr price, close (Oct 15, 2026) NT$2,440.00 Mkt cap, curr (mn) NT$63,264,271 (mn) NT$73,836 hr price, close (Oct 15, 2026) NT$2,440.00 Mkt cap, curr (mn) NT$63,264,271 (mn) NT$73,836 hr price, close (Oct 15, 2026) NT$2,440.00 Mkt cap, curr (mn) NT$63,264,271 (mn) NT$73,836 hr price, close (Oct 15, 2026) NT$2,440.00 Mkt cap, curr (mn) NT$63,264,271 (mn) NT$73,836 hr price, close (Oct 15, 2026) NT$2,440.00 Mkt cap, curr (mn) NT$63,264,271 (mn) NT$73,836
Equity Analyst Avg daily trading value Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e
EP (NT$)** 66.25 112.10 148.64 189.81
Prior EP (NT$)** - 115.32 152.74 189.91
EP (NT$)§ 64.56 108.51 145.29 188.02
ModelWare net inc (NT 1,718 2,907 3,854 4,922
$ bn) $ bn) $ bn) $ bn) $ bn)
P/E 23.4 21.8 16.4 12.9
Div yld (%) 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.8

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan tanley ModelWare framework

  • ** = Based on consensus methodology
  • § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan tanley Research estimates

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M Idea October 15, 2026 11:14 AM GMT

TSMC | Asia Pacific

No slowdown of AI semi demand; reiterate OW

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged In-line argely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

ource: Company data, Morgan tanley Research

TSMC is further expanding capacity after considering other constraints such as data center build power and other components supply. We think the risk of over-capacity is small and stay OW.

TSMC sees robust AI semi demand: Despite CSP power shortages and rising financing costs, TSMC sees demand far above its capacity. It sees no signs of a slowdown, which may ease some market concerns. The company did not pdate its AI semi CAGR g idance (55-60%), saying it is not meaningf l as the demand is expanding rapidly.

Comments on wafer foundry partnership (TeraFab) and ompetition (Intel): For overseas fabs, TSMC is eval ating a TeraFab partnership, b t TSMC m st r n the partner fab. TSMC is also considering other fab camp s locations, incl ding Texas. We asked management abo t IDM o tso rcing from Intel and implications for A14 capacity demand. Management said it wo ld try to be fair to all c stomers. On competition, TSMC wo ld expand capacity and 'leave no food on the table' for competitors.

On advan ed pa kaging, we asked whether TSMC would help ustomers using Intel EMIB-T advan ed pa kaging: The company is confident abo t 9x and 14x reticle size chip s pport. TSMC's principle is to help c stomers ramp prod cts smoothly, so we take it as no objection if Google/MediaTek needs to adopt CoWoS/ CoPoS in f t re TPU versions, as we artic lated in MediaTek: TSMC CoWoS s pport eases MediaTek's 2028 TPU prod ction concerns

We raise 2027/28 apex estimates to fa tor in 2nm and 1.4nm expansion: The company maintained its 2026 capex g idance (US$60-64bn) and didn't provide next-year capex g idance. That said, it mentioned more than a do bling of 2nm capacity b ild by 2027. O r initial cross checks with eq ipment venders s ggest EUV tool bookings do ble in 2027 (vs. 2026), followed by 25-30% growth in 2028. We therefore raise o r 2027/28 capex ass mption to US$83/92bn.

3Q26 results review - margin miss, but revenue upside: Pease see Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2 for o r earnings review. We lower o r 2026 and 2027 margin ass mptions, offset by higher reven e. We maintain o r price target at NT$3,088 and reiterate o r OW rating.

Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EP

M Idea

TSMC 3Q26 earnings and 4Q26 guidance review

3Q26 results and 4Q26 guidan e review - margin miss, but revenue upside: 3Q26 margin of 66.4% misses o r forecast of 67.5%, b t was largely in-line with consens s, given the margin dil tion of 2nm node and overseas operation dil tion.

The 4Q26 margin midpoint of 66% shows contin ed press re. TSMC g ides for 4Q26 reven e to grow 14% Q/Q at the midpoint on very strong demand, in line with o r 10-15% Q/Q expectation. F ll-year reven e g idance is raised to 44% Y/Y, also similar to o r preview.

Exhibit 1: TSMC: 3Q26 earnings review

(NT$ mn) 3Q26 - Actual 3Q26 - Q/Q 3Q26 - Y/Y 3Q26 - MS Est. 3Q26 - Consensus
Financials
Revenue 1,494,243 17.6% 50.9% 1,499,073 1,461,784
Opex (115,934) 23.7% 32.0% (101,410) (119,637)
EPS (NT$) 29.43 8.0% 68.7% 30.74 28.65
Ratios
GM (%) 66.4% -131bps 696bps 67.5% 66.5%
Opex (%) 7.8% 38bps -112bps 6.8% 8.2%
OPM (%) 58.7% -169bps 808bps 60.8% 58.4%

Source: Company data, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Researc estimates

Exhibit 2: TSMC: 4Q26 guidance review

(NT$ mn) 4Q26 - Guidance 4Q26 - MS Est. 4Q26 - Q/Q 4Q26 - Y/Y 4Q26 - Consensus
Financials
Revenue US$52.3bn to US$54.3bn, +14% Q/Q increase at mid-point 1,685,894 12.8% 61.2% 1,609,407
Opex (107,433) -7.3% 23.4% (126,452)
EPS (NT$) 35.25 19.8% 80.8% 31.84
Ratios
GM (%) 65.0% - 67.0% 68.6% 215bps 623bps 66.5%
Opex (%) 6.4% -139bps -195bps 7.9%
OPM (%) 56.5% - 58.5% 62.2% 353bps 819bps 58.7%

Source: Company data, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Researc estimates M Idea

TSMC: Earnings estimate revisions

Our earnings fore asts de line 3% for 2026, 3% for 2027 and is largely un hanged for 2028: We lower o r 2026/27 earnings forecast mostly d e to the margin miss of 3Q26 res lts and weaker than o r initial expectation of 4Q26 margin g idance, and also the wider overseas fab margin dil tion into 2027. We slightly raise the reven e ass mption for 2027/2028 as TSMC s ggested it wo ld speed p the 3nm/2nm capacity b ild, b t that also comes with larger depreciation and margin press re when new prod ction ramps.

Exhibit 3: TSMC: Estimate revisions

(NT$ mn) New 2026e Old 2026e Diff.% New 2027e Old 2027e Diff.% New 2028e Old 2028e Diff.%
Net sales 5,608,126 5,589,451 0% 7,539,903 7,471,986 1% 9,651,104 9,340,906 3%
Gross profit 3,743,690 3,779,639 -1% 5,051,302 5,155,084 -2% 6,504,432 6,420,040 1%
Operating profit 3,307,072 3,384,759 -2% 4,451,744 4,577,529 -3% 5,735,899 5,739,313 0%
Pretax income 3,493,372 3,563,509 -2% 4,559,923 4,685,707 -3% 5,840,078 5,843,492 0%
Net income 2,906,884 2,990,329 -3% 3,854,314 3,960,521 -3% 4,921,827 4,924,352 0%
Diluted EPS 112.10 115.32 -3% 148.64 152.74 -3% 189.81 189.91 0%
Margins
Gross margin 66.8% 67.6% 67.0% 69.0% 67.4% 68.7%
Operating margin 59.0% 60.6% 59.0% 61.3% 59.4% 61.4%
Pretax margin 62.3% 63.8% 60.5% 62.7% 60.5% 62.6%
Net margin 51.8% 53.5% 51.1% 53.0% 51.0% 52.7%

Source: Morgan Stanley Researc estimates

Exhibit 4: TSMC: Quarterly financials

(NT$ mn) 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26e 4Q26e 2023 2024 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e
Total Revenues 839,254 933,792 989,918 1,046,090 1,134,103 1,270,380 1,494,243 1,709,399 2,161,736 2,894,308 3,809,054 5,608,126 7,539,903 9,651,104
Sequential Change -3.4% 11.3% 6.0% 5.7% 8.4% 12.0% 17.6% 14.4%
Change vs Year Ago 41.6% 38.6% 30.3% 20.5% 35.1% 36.0% 50.9% 63.4% -4.5% 33.9% 31.6% 47.2% 34.4% 28.0%
Cost of Sales (345,859) (386,423) (401,375) (394,104) (382,808) (410,070) (501,864) (569,694) (986,625) (1,269,954) (1,527,760) (1,864,436) (2,488,600) (3,146,672)
Percent of Revenues 41.2% 41.4% 40.5% 37.7% 33.8% 32.3% 33.6% 33.3% 45.6% 43.9% 40.1% 33.2% 33.0% 32.6%
Gross Profit 493,395 547,369 588,543 651,987 751,295 860,311 992,379 1,139,705 1,175,111 1,624,354 2,281,294 3,743,690 5,051,302 6,504,432
Gross Margin 58.8% 58.6% 59.5% 62.3% 66.2% 67.7% 66.4% 66.7% 54.4% 56.1% 59.9% 66.8% 67.0% 67.4%
Total Opex (86,314) (83,946) (87,858) (87,084) (92,329) (93,708) (115,934) (134,647) (253,645) (302,301) (345,202) (436,618) (599,559) (768,533)
Percent of Revenues 10.3% 9.0% 8.9% 8.3% 8.1% 7.4% 502.0% 7.9% 11.7% 10.4% 9.1% 7.8% 8.0% 8.0%
R&D (56,547) (61,280) (63,742) (64,858) (67,757) (73,146) (88,979) (106,979) (182,370) (204,182) (246,427) (336,861) (376,300) (479,000)
Percent of Revenues 6.7% 6.6% 6.4% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.3% 8.4% 7.1% 6.5% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0%
SG&A (29,767) (22,666) (24,116) (22,227) (24,573) (20,562) (26,955) (27,668) (71,275) (98,119) (98,775) (99,757) (223,259) (289,533)
Sequential Change 1.1% -23.9% 6.4% -7.8% 10.6% -16.3% 31.1% 2.6%
Change vs Year Ago Operating Income 53.6% 407,081 -3.6% 463,424 -6.5% 500,685 -24.5% 564,902 -17.4% 658,966 -9.3% 766,603 11.8% 876,445 24.5% 1,005,058 921,466 1,322,053 1,936,092 3,307,072 4,451,744 5,735,899
Non-operating Income(Loss) 48.5% 23,815 49.6% 29,612 24,684 27,461 28,834 95,827 58.7% 34,594 911,039 58.8% 42.6% 45.7% 105,571 2,041,663 59.0% 186,300 3,493,372 59.0% 108,179 104,179 5,840,078
Percent of Revenues 50.6% 54.0% 58.1% 60.3% 27,045 57,706 83,786 50.8% 4,559,923 59.4%
Percent of Revenues 430,895 51.3% 493,035 525,369 60.6% 67.9% 1,032,103 979,171 48.6% 53.6% 62.3% 60.5% 60.5%
Profit Before Taxes 52.8% 53.1% 592,363 56.6% 687,800 862,430 61.0% 60.4% 45.3% 1,405,839 (326,266)
Taxes (70,163) (95,542) 19.4% (73,614) 14.0% (86,948) (114,998) (155,649) 18.0% (147,698) 16.2% (167,325) 16.2% (141,404) (233,407) (585,671) 16.8% (705,609) 15.5% (918,251) 15.7%
Tax Rate 16.3% 14.7% 16.7% 706,781 763,341 14.4% 16.6% 1,172,432 1,715,397 2,907,701 3,854,314 4,921,827
Minority Interest 780 546 (277) 837,768 836 16.0% 0 0
Net Income, Cont Ops 360,733 397,493 451,755 505,415 572,801 (322) (219) 864,778 0 730 2,486 (818)
831 329
Reported Income (TW GAAP) 361,564 398,273 452,301 505,744 572,480 706,562 763,064 864,778 838,498 1,173,268 1,717,883 2,906,884 3,854,314 4,921,827
Percent of Revenues 43.1% 42.7% 45.7% 48.3% 50.5% 55.6% 51.1% 50.6% 38.8% 40.5% 45.1% 51.8% 51.1% 51.0%
Change vs Year Ago 60.3% 60.7% 39.1% 35.0% 58.3% 77.4% 68.7% 71.0% -17.5% 39.9% 46.4% 69.2% 32.6% 27.7%
Reported EPS (NT$, TW GAAP) Basic shares (mn units) 13.94 25,927 15.36 25,928 17.44 25,929 19.50 25,928 22.08 25,930 27.25 25,931 29.43 25,931 33.35 25,931 32.34 25,929 45.25 25,928 66.25 25,928 112.10 25,930 148.64 25,931 189.81 25,931

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc (e) estimates Our PT is un hanged at NT$3,088. O r PT implies a 20x P/E m ltiple on o r new 2027 EPS forecast. TSMC c rrently trades at 17x that estimate, close to its average NTM P/E of 16.5x since 2018. We find the stock attractive at c rrent levels.

We contin e to derive o r 12-month price target (base-case scenario) sing a resid al income val ation framework. O r key ass mptions are nchanged, incl ding a cost of eq ity of 9.2% (beta of 1.2, eq ity risk premi m of 6.0%, and risk-free rate of 2.0%), an intermediate growth rate of 10.5%, and a terminal growth rate of 4%.

O r b ll and bear case scenario val es remain at NT$3,720 and NT$1,700, respectively.

M Idea

Exhibit 5: TSMC: Residual income model

2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e 2032e 2033e 2034e 2035e 2036e 2037e
Total Equity 7,804,091 10,906,366 14,868,696 18,349,412 22,195,603 26,445,645 31,141,941 36,331,348 42,065,642 48,402,038 55,403,755 63,140,653
Net Profit 2,906,884 3,854,314 4,921,827 5,438,619 6,009,674 6,640,690 7,337,962 8,108,448 8,959,835 9,900,618 10,940,183 12,088,902
ROAE 43.8% 41.2% 38.2% 32.7% 29.6% 27.3% 25.5% 24.0% 22.9% 21.9% 21.1% 20.4%
Residual Income 1,890,978 2,497,276 3,161,823 3,500,820 3,751,437 4,018,462 4,306,549 4,619,765 4,961,990 5,337,135 5,749,278 6,202,765
Spread 34.6% 32.0% 29.0% 23.5% 20.4% 18.1% 16.3% 14.8% 13.7% 12.7% 11.9% 11.2%
Ending Equity Capital 7,804,091
PV of Forecast Period 25,143,239
PV of Continuing Value 47,115,769
Equity Value 80,063,099
No. of Shares 25,930
Projected Price (NT$) 3,088

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc (e) estimates

Exhibit 6: TSMC's one-year forward P/E: Valuation does not appear stretc ed as a key AI semi enabler

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: Company data, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Researc

Exhibit 7: TSMC - P/B vs. ROE

Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Researc

M Idea

Risk Reward - TSMC (2330.TW) Risk Reward - TSMC (2330.TW)

AI semi demand remains very robust even considering the constraint factors; OW

NT$3,088.00 PRICE TARGET

Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions: a cost of equity of 9.2% (beta of 1.2, riskfree rate of 2.0% and risk premium of 6.0%), an intermediate growth rate of 10.5%, and a terminal growth rate of 4.0%.

NT$3,242.35

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE

BASE CASE

OVERWEIGHT THESIS

  • ▪Reflecting robust AI capex guidance from global CSPs, we are OW on TSMC.
  • ▪Our estimates reflect TSMC' s strong profitability and another year of >40% Y/Y revenue growth seen for 2026.
  • ▪Leading-edge (7nm below) demand remains robust.
  • ▪Reflecting increased bargaining power, long-term margin expansion, and sustainable AI semi demand, we expect the stock to rerate to our implied 2027e target P/E of 20x.

Consensus Rating Distribution

Risk Reward Themes

New Data Era: Positive
Pricing Power: Positive
Secular Growth: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BEAR CASE

24x 2027e EPS

TSMC dominates foundry services: 1) Breakthrough in EUV tech and materials accelerates node migration to 3nm and beyond. 2) Intel outsources its server CPU production to TSMC sooner than expected. 3) Intel or Samsung exits leading-edge foundry business. 4) New tech megatrends such as 6G or AI drive global semi revenue growth and increase demand for leading edge nodes. 5) Cost per transistor decreases further along with node migration.

20x 2027e EPS

Leading position in leading-edge logic foundry services with some gross margin expansion: 1) Global semi revenue CAGR is sustained in the high single digits in 202528. 2) TSMC continues to lead in market share in 16nm, 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, and 2nm. 3) It continues to observe robust AI-related demand. 4) Cost per transistor does not decrease meaningfully in 3nm and 2nm, while capex per k is more demanding than for 7nm and 5nm.

11x 2027e EPS

TSMC's dominance in foundry business erodes: 1) Global ex-memory semi revenue growth is weaker than expected in 2025-28. 2) Declining trailing-edge market share causes revenue shortfall. 3) Intel's contribution is weaker than expected. Intel and/or Samsung successfully develop leading-edge process technology. 4) Intel's foundry business execution proves successful and weighs on TSMC with order competition. 5) Demand for 2nm is less than expected given high transistor cost for foundry customers.

NT$1,700.00

NT$3,720.00

NT$3,088.00

M Idea

Risk Reward - TSMC (2330.TW)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026eDec 2027eDec 2028e
Revenue from 5nm Geometry (NT$, mn) 1,179,907 1,395,542 1,154,712 1,147,783
Revenue from 10/7nm Geometry (NT$, mn) 459,258 528,898 542,812 540,706
Revenue from 16/20nm Geometry (NT$, mn) 220,027 292,507 329,278 347,256

INVESTMENT DRIVERS

  • Moore's Law migration (chip scaling) and alternative technologies
  • Capex intensity - cost of building leading-edge foundry capacity
  • Bargaining power with key equipment vendors
  • Transistor cost for customers
  • ROI for leading-edge foundry

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate View explanation of regional hierarchies here

MS ALPHA MODELS

1/5 3 Month
MOST Horizon

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Quintile

RISKS TO PT/RATING

RISKS TO UPSIDE

  • TSMC charging large customers more to keep its gross margin above 56% in the long term
  • AI semi demand growing more significantly than expected while TSMC maintains high market share in leading-edge foundry business
  • Outsourcing from Intel CPU increasing over 2025-27

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

  • Inventory correction in 2026
  • Weakening demand for leading edge technologies
  • Costs of overseas fabs growing significantly

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Inst. Owners, % Active 75.9%

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research M Idea

TSMC: Financial summary

Exhibit 8: TSMC: Financial Summary

Income Statement, 2024-2028e, Year End Dec - (NT$ mn) Income Statement, 2024-2028e, Year End Dec - 2024 Income Statement, 2024-2028e, Year End Dec - 2025 Income Statement, 2024-2028e, Year End Dec - 2026e Income Statement, 2024-2028e, Year End Dec - 2027e Income Statement, 2024-2028e, Year End Dec - 2028e Balance Sheet, 2024-2028e, Year End Dec 2026e - (NT$ mn) Balance Sheet, 2024-2028e, Year End Dec 2026e - 2024 Balance Sheet, 2024-2028e, Year End Dec 2026e - 2025 Balance Sheet, 2024-2028e, Year End Dec 2026e Balance Sheet, 2024-2028e, Year End Dec 2026e - 2027e Balance Sheet, 2024-2028e, Year End Dec 2026e - 2028e
Revenue 2,894,308 3,809,054 5,608,126 7,539,903 9,651,104 Cash & Equivalent 2,127,627 2,767,856 3,678,708 4,993,069 7,315,810
YoY Growth 33.9% 31.6% 47.2% 34.4% 28.0% MarketableSecurity 294,393 300,738 383,795 383,795 383,795
Gross Profit b/f dep 2,247,086 2,924,669 4,518,123 6,079,440 7,952,107 A/R & N/R 272,088 281,791 539,393 682,034 831,525
Inventories 287,869 288,109 482,816 600,411 720,855
Less: COGS (1,269,954) (1,527,760) (1,864,436) (2,488,600) (3,146,672) Other Current Ass. 106,376 178,635 221,240 221,240 221,240
Variable costs (647,221) (884,385) (1,090,003) (1,460,463) (1,698,998) Total current assets 3,088,352 3,817,131 5,305,952 6,880,549 9,473,225
Depreciation & amort (622,733) (643,376) (774,433) (1,028,138) (1,447,675) Long-term Investment 149,040 172,370 227,936 227,936 227,936
Gross profit 1,624,354 2,281,294 3,743,690 5,051,302 6,504,432 Total fixed assets 3,234,980 3,691,841 4,927,830 6,491,119 7,897,246
% margin 56.1% 59.9% 66.8% 67.0% 67.4% Total other assets 219,565 251,682 279,138 279,138 279,138
YoY Growth 38.2% 40.4% 64.1% 34.9% 28.8% Total Assets 6,691,938 7,933,024 10,740,856 13,878,742 17,877,544
Operating Expenses: (302,301) (345,202) (436,618) (599,559) (768,533) A/P & N/P 74,227 84,330 146,207 181,817 218,291
R&D (204,182) (246,427) (336,861) (376,300) (479,000) Accrued Expenses 0 0 0 0 0
Sales and Marketing (13,144) (16,918) (20,154) (37,700) (48,256) Other Payable 531,377 630,217 871,930 871,930 871,930
General and Admin (84,975) (81,857) (79,603) (185,559) (241,278) Curr. of L-T Debt 59,858 136,926 167,410 167,410 167,410
Operating Profit 1,322,053 1,936,092 3,307,072 4,451,744 5,735,899 Other Curr. Liab. 599,064 606,547 707,796 707,796 707,796
% margin 45.7% 50.8% 59.0% 59.0% 59.4% Total Current Liab. 1,264,525 1,458,019 1,893,343 1,928,953 1,965,427
YoY Growth 43.5% 46.4% 70.8% 34.6% 28.8% L-T Liabilities 926,605 856,228 815,037 815,037 815,037
Non-Operating Income 83,786 105,571 186,300 108,179 Total 104,179 Other L-T Liab Total Liabilities 177,233 2,368,362 157,982 2,472,229 228,385 2,936,765 228,385 2,972,375 228,385 3,008,849
Pretax Profit % margin 1,405,839 48.6% 2,041,663 53.6% 3,493,372 62.3% 4,559,923 60.5% 5,840,078 60.5% Common Stocks 259,327 259,325 259,324 259,324 259,324
Tax Preferred Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
(233,407) (326,266) (585,671) (705,609) (918,251) Capital Reserve 73,261 73,446 72,291 72,291
1,173,268 1,717,883 2,906,884 3,854,314 4,921,827 Retained earnings 3,955,957 5,086,825 72,291 7,430,524 10,532,799 14,495,129
Reported net Income 148.64 Treasury Stock 0 0 0 41,953 0 41,953 0 41,953
Reported EPS (NT$) 45.25 66.25 112.10 189.81 Minority Equity 35,031 41,199
EPS for consensus (NT$) 45.25 66.25 112.10 148.64 189.81 4,323,576 10,906,366 14,868,696
2024 2025 2026e 2027e 31% 41% Total Cash 2028e (NT$ 31% Total Equity Liab. & Equity Flow Statement, 2024-2028e, mn) 6,691,938 Year End Dec 5,460,795 7,933,024 2025 7,804,091 10,740,856 2026e 13,878,742 2027e 17,877,544 2028e
Key Ratios, 2024-2028e Return (%) ROAA 19% 23% 35% 31% 44% 38% Net Income Current Depreciation Net Investment Losses (Gains) 2024 1,173,268 662,797 1,717,883 688,096 8,083 2,906,884 881,837 3,509 3,854,314 1,082,250 0 4,921,827 1,523,868 0
30% 0.7x 0.7x 0.8x 1.0x 0.9x Decrease (Increase) in Working Others 20,896 0 0
ROAE OP. ATO Capital 8,205 (38,988) (17,144) (121,942) (47,126) (277,252) (224,625) (233,462)
Gearing (x) Net Debt/ Equity Current Ratio -0.33x 2.4x -0.38x 2.6x -0.39x 2.8x -0.40x 3.6x Cash -0.45x 4.8x Flow-Operating (Purchase) of FA 1,826,177 (956,007) 2,274,976 (1,272,411) 3,467,852 (1,989,563) 4,711,939 6,212,233
Quick Ratio (2,645,540) 0 (2,929,995) 0
1.9x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x Sale of Fix Asset 895 (3,739) 797 1,992
Operating Cycle AR/NR Turnover (days) 4.1x (Purchase)L-T Inv. Others Cash Flow-Inv. 94,008 (864,843) 0 127,220 (1,144,393) 0 (4,892) 0 0 (2,645,540) 0 0
Inventory Turnover (days) AP Turnover (days) 29 76 19 26 68 26 74 29 78 28 76 23 Inc(Dec)-S-T Debt 0 (1,992,463) (2,929,995)
Cash Conversion (days) 19 22 79 81 Inc(Dec) L-T Debt 28,601 0 0 0 0 0 0
87 (363,055) 7,948 11,299 (583,480) (752,039) (959,498)
75 Dividend Paid Dir.&Emp.Bonus 0 0 0
Others 0 (11,847) 0
84
24
(466,779)
(30,604) 0 0
Cash Flow-Financing (346,301) 18,486 (440,345) (602,786) (752,039) (959,498)
e = Morgan Stanley Research Estimates Change in Cash 662,199 640,229 910,852 1,314,361 3,678,708 2,322,741 4,993,069
Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research Net cash/(debt), b/f 2,127,627 2,767,856 4,993,069 7,315,810
Net cash/(debt), c/f 1,465,428 2,127,627 2,767,856 3,678,708

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Options_Probabilities_Exhibit_Link.pdf

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  2. View explanation of regional hierarchies - GEG_Exhibit_Link.pdf

  3. View explanation of Theme/Expos re methodology -

ESG_S stainable_Sol tions_External_Link.pdf

  1. View explanation of HERS methodology - ESG_HERS_External_Link.pdf

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