報告_MS_南電8046_3Q26_20261105

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M Update November 5, 2026 03:06 PM GMT

Nan Ya PCB | Asia Pacific

In-line 3Q26 gross margin

AlphaSignals Earnings Rea tion

Unchanged

Impact to our t esis In-line

Largely unchanged

Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-mont

consensus EPS

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Howard Kao

Equity Analyst Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com

Irene Yen

Equity Analyst Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Andy eng, CFA

Equity Analyst

Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2989

+886 2 2730-2869

+852 2239-7689

Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.

Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW, 8046 TT)

Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan

Unless ot erwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

** = Based on consensus met odology

e = Morgan Stanley Researc estimates

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc

Key Takeaways

• NYPCB's 3Q G is largely in line with both buy-side and sell-side estimates.
• The 500bps sequential improvement in Op looks positive to us. Similar to Unimicron's 3Q results, we view NYPCB's slight miss as an expectation mismatch...
• ...rather than reflecting any structural concerns.
• We also expect NYPCB to gain share for ABF substrates for A D's server CPUs, as one Japanese competitor reallocates more capacity to another CPU customer.
• We remain constructive on all ABF substrate stocks in our coverage.

3Q26 results:

• 3Q revenue was NT$16.4bn (+21% q/q, +49% y/y).
• G reached 29.3% (+460bps q/q, +1,970bps y/y), slightly above our estimate but in line with the Street, driven by higher ABF (low 30s %) and BT G (high 20s %). PCB remains loss-making on the gross margin level.
• OP was NT$4.3bn (+49% q/q, +597% y/y), 1% above our estimate and the
• Street, for Op of 26.4% (+500bps q/q, +2,070bps y/y).
• However, non-op income was below our estimate and the Street. Tax rate of ~26% was again higher than our estimate at 16% and the Street at 19%.
• Thus, NP came in at NT$3.3bn (+46% q/q, +355% y/y), 13% below our estimate/8% below the Street, for EPS of NT$5.10.

Exhibit 1: NYPCB 3Q26 results summary

Source: Company data, Visible Alp a, Morgan Stanley Researc estimates.

M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Unimicron (3037.TW)

Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.2% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 14%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-expected ABF substrate demand from PC and server customers
• n Capex cuts; halt to its capacity expansion plan
• n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g., CoWoP)

Risks to Downside

• n Sudden demand shortfall
• n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
• n Intensifying competition
• n Yield issues or production hiccups when ramping new capacity

Nan Ya PCB ( 046.TW)

Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.3% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 17%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-expected ABF and BT demand
• n Faster-than-expected pickup in AI and 5G demand
• n Stronger-than-expected ASP hike
• n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g. CoWoP)

Risks to Downside

• n Sudden demand shortfall, creating headwinds for ABF substrate demand and pricing
• n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
• n Intensifying competition

M Update

INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Te hnology Hardware

M Update M Update Stock Ratings are subject to c ange. Please see latest researc for eac company.

• Historical prices are not split adjusted.

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