PDF 原檔：報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-13）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_001.png |
66KB | 裝飾·banner | 「Asia Summer School 2026」活動宣傳橫幅（泳池意象） |
報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_002.png |
106KB | 真資料圖 | 全球 DRAM 供給／需求（mn Gb，藍柱=Supply、黃柱=Demand）+ 供需比折線（1Q23-3Q28e），供需比由正轉負後於近期轉為緊缺 |
報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_003.png |
88KB | 真資料圖 | 同一供需圖依廠商拆分堆疊柱（Samsung／Hynix／Micron／CXMT／Nanya／Winbond／PSMC／JHICC，1Q23-3Q28e），可見 CXMT 佔比甚小 |
報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_004.png |
72KB | 真資料圖 | DDR4 8Gb（1Gx8 2666Mbps）現貨 vs 合約價走勢圖，現貨最新 US$29.08、合約 US$20.00 |
報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_005.png |
120KB | 真資料圖 | 供需比（藍線）vs 南亞科報價 QoQ 變化（黃線）vs 華邦電報價 QoQ 變化（淺藍線）疊圖，1Q23-4Q28e |
報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_006.png |
93KB | 真資料圖 | DRAM 需求依應用別拆分堆疊柱（Smartphone／PC／Server／TV／Switch／Cache DRAM／Others，1Q23-3Q28e） |
報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_007.png |
101KB | 真資料圖 | DDR5 16G（2Gx8）4800/5600 現貨 vs 合約價走勢圖，現貨最新 US$45.00、合約 US$37.50 |
報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_008.png |
230KB | 真資料圖 | 南亞科 Forward P/B 倍數歷史區間圖（2015-2026，均值 1.3x，±1SD 0.8x-1.7x），近期衝至 2.5x-2.75x |
報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_009.png |
137KB | 真資料圖 | 南亞科 Forward P/B（藍線）vs ROAE（黃線，右軸）疊圖，2015-2026 |
報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_010.png |
52KB | 真資料圖 | 南亞科 FY2 EPS 預估修正（3個月移動平均，藍線）vs 股價年增率（黃線，右軸）疊圖，2016-2026 |
報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_014.png |
46KB | 真資料圖 | FY2026e 財測比較菱形圖：Sales/Revenue、EBITDA、Net income、EPS 三方比較（Refinitiv consensus 低值、mean、Morgan Stanley Estimates 高值） |
報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_015.png |
80KB | 真資料圖 | 個股股價（藍線）+ 評等調整時間點標記（O/A、O/C、O/I 等）+ 目標價階梯（紅色虛線），縱軸 0-450,000（推測為南韓元計價個股，非南亞科） |
報告_MS_南亞科2408_20260712_016.png |
79KB | 真資料圖 | 個股股價（藍線）+ 評等調整時間點標記（O/A、U/C、E/C、E/I 等）+ 目標價階梯（紅色虛線），縱軸 0-3,600,000（推測為南韓元計價個股，非南亞科） |
015、016 兩張圖軸刻度與標記格式明顯為 MS 同業比較頁常見的個股股價/評等沿革圖，但頁面本身未顯示公司名稱，無法從圖面本身確認具體標的，故僅描述親眼所見內容，不臆測公司別。011-013（<40KB）未逐張驗證，預設為版面裝飾。
原始內容
M July 12, 2026 08:06 PM GMT
Nanya Technology Corp. | Asia Pacific
Niche DRAM Upcycle May Extend to 2028; OW
| What's Changed Nanya Technology | From | To |
|---|---|---|
| Price Target | NT$550.00 | NT$580.00 |
Reaction to earnings
Unchanged
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
2Q26 beat on pricing-led margin expansion, with AI demand and memory shortages supporting further upside into 2H. We expect 3Q revenue to be up at least 25% Q/Q; US$16bn capex adds to 2027-29 capacity and shipment growth.
2Q26 results in-line ( Exhibit 8 ): EPS came in at NT$14.66, +81% Q/Q and 15% above consensus. Revenue grew +68% Q/Q and +684% Y/Y, beating MSe/Street by 4%/18%, on a 60%+ Q/Q ASP increase while shipments were flat Q/Q. AI infrastructure and server-related sales contributed 20-30% of 2Q revenue. Gross margin rose 12ppt Q/Q to 79.5%, 1.7ppt/3.7ppt above MSe/Street, due to price hikes.
Pricing trending up into 2H; not worried about oversupply even into 2028: 3Q26 pricing and profitability should trend up, and 4Q might follow a similar pattern. We expect at least +25% Q/Q revenue in 3Q. Management remains optimistic that a structural shift is intensifying memory shortages and fostering diverse AI innovations (i.e., agentic AI, edge AI, physical AI). Beyond GPUs, CPUs and ASICs driving robust demand for HBM, LPDDR5 and DDR5, AI infrastructure is accelerating adoption of higher -content, higher -performance DRAM in eSSDs, SmartNICs and BMCs. For non -AI demand, management sees continued shipment impact from memory capacity constraints, skewing the mix toward high -end models.
Announcing US$16bn capex spend for 45kwpm capacity expansion during 2027-
29: NTC will finish new fab construction this year, start equipment pull in in 1Q27, and build capacity steadily through 2029. Of capex, 80% will be WFE. EUV will be implemented in 2028, potentially for 1C/1D/1E, depending on final arrangements. Besides DDR4/DDR5 and LP products, customized AI/WoW products and AI infrastructure solutions are included in the new fab plan.
Stay OW; raise price target to NT$580: We factor 2027-28e capacity planning into our model and raise NTC's price target to reflect added shipment upside. This implies 5.1x 2027e P/E, which we view as justifiable vs. global peers now trading at 5.1x ( Exhibit 7 ), as we see DDR4 remaining in severe shortage and NTC having LTAs to support future growth. Valuation has returned to an attractive 3.9x 2027e EPS vs. a 2025-28e EPS CAGR of 216%.
In-line
Financial results versus consensus
Modest revision higher
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Idea
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
Nanya Technology Corp. (2408.TW, 2408 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
Stock Rating
Overweight Attractive
Industry View
Price target
NT$580.00 33 NT$435.50 NT$505.00-40.20 3,082 NT$1,342,253 NT$1,297,802 NT$22,400
Up/downside to price target (%)
Shr price, close (Jul 9, 2026)
52-Week Range
Sh out, dil, curr (mn)
Mkt cap, curr (mn)
EV, curr (mn)
Avg daily trading value (mn)
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 2.36 | 62.13 | 112.32 | 74.33 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | 65.56 | 93.08 | 50.89 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 1.95 | 54.17 | 74.74 | 66.30 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 66,587 | 348,048 | 638,966 | 518,763 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 20,285 | 267,364 | 496,607 | 335,402 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 7,373 | 209,579 | 384,461 | 254,439 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/BV | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| RNOA (%) | 4.3 | 168.1 | 68.8 | 34.8 |
| ROE (%) | 4.5 | 123.0 | 102.1 | 33.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | 2.4 | (16.5) | 14.3 | 28.6 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (26.2) | 51.6 | (2.6) | (44.0) |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
- ** = Based on consensus methodology
- § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.