PDF 原檔：報告_MS_力積電6770_20261021_original.pdf
原始內容
M Update October 21, 2026 07:14 PM GMT
Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co | Asia Pacific
Margin beat; pricing catch-up continues
A phaSigna s Earnings Reaction
Strengthens our thesis
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data Morgan Stanley Research
Key Takeaways
- Management expects double-d g t Q/Q sales growth n 4Q26.
- Memory sh pment ASPs st ll lag wafer start pr c ng by ~30%, support ng further catch-up over the four-month product on cycle.
- Management targets another 10-20% log c pr ce h ke n 2027, subject to LTA negot at ons.
3Q26 earnings beat:
- Revenue was NT$21.34bn, +23% Q/Q, +80% Y/Y, 2% below our est mate.
- Gross prof t was NT$10.1bn, GM was 47.5%, +19.3ppt Q/Q, +54.1ppt Y/Y, 21.2ppt above our est mate
- EPS was NT$1.38, +82% Q/Q, 84% above our est mate.
- 3Q26 recorded NT$660mn of opex assoc ated w th the Tongluo fab (reclass f ed from COGS).
Other takeaways:
- AI packag ng rema ns an execut on watchpo nt - 3D AI foundry's revenue decreased from 5.4% of the m x n 2Q to 1.4% n 3Q dur ng the relocat on, although nterposers are expected to be fully loaded by year-end.
- IPD offers structural growth potent al. Management est mates that ndustryw de 30-50kwpm h gh capac tance demand for 2H27 and onward far exceeds PSMC's planned capac ty of 8-10kwpm.
- PWF mass product on s targeted for 4Q27, w th revenue growth contr but on from 2028.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
| Dan el Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Dani l.Y n@morganstanl y.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
|---|---|
| Charl e Chan Equity Analyst Charli .Chan@morganstanl y.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Da sy Da , CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanl y.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Ethan J a R s arch Associat Ethan.Jia@morganstanl y.com | +852 3963-2287 |
Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co(6770.TW,
6770 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating Industry View | Overweight Attractive |
|---|---|
| Price target | NT$111.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 68 |
| Shr price close (Oct 21 2026) | NT$66.20 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$94.50-27.35 |
| Sh out dil curr (mn) | 4 188 |
| Mkt cap curr (mn) | NT$277 240 |
| EV curr (mn) | NT$264 464 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$13 067 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | (1.87) | 5.66 | 6.54 | 8.11 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | (1.89) | 6.43 | 8.30 | 9.28 |
| Revenue net (NT$ mn) | 46 730 | 77 | 163107 | 846123 668 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | (309) | 15 758 | 40 443 | 47 746 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | (11 444) | 6 205 | 26 049 | 33 387 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | NM | 47.5 | 11.8 | 9.2 |
| P/BV | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| RNOA (%) | (8.7) | 8.9 | 65.5 | 94.9 |
| ROE (%) | (12.9) | 7.6 | 13.0 | 13.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | NM | 8.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | 4.7 | 35.2 | 19.4 | 21.7 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (15.6) | (81.2) | (86.8) | (90.6) |
Unless otherwise noted all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
- Modest revision higher Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
M Update
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (6770.TW)
Base case, 2.0x 2027e P/B. Th s method s n l ne w th our approach for Greater Ch na memory IDM players, n v ew of the ndustry's h gh volat l ty. Our 2.0x target P/B s h gher than the h stor cal average of 1.5x s nce 2021, reflect ng our opt m st c v ew on mproved pr c ng and ut l zat on.
Ris s to Upside
- n Pr c ng power s susta ned n 2026.
- n L st ng on ma n board attracts nvestment fund flows.
- n Alum num process enjoys h gher marg ns.
Ris s to Downside
- n Compet t on from Ch na ntens f es.
- n Pr ce eros on s faster than expected.
- nDemand from consumer electron cs cl ents weakens further.
- n Inventory n the supply cha n takes longer to d gest.
M Update
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Techno ogy Semiconductors
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (10/ 1/ 0 6) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Chan | ||
| Advanced Wireless Semiconductor Co (8086.TWO) | U (07/14/2025) | NT$128.50 |
| Alchip Technologies Ltd (3661.TW) | O (05/14/2021) | NT$3 710.00 |
| ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. (3711.TW) | O (09/15/2024) | NT$684.00 |
| Cambricon Technology Corporation (688256.SS) | O (04/27/2026) | Rmb916.42 |
| CXMT Corp (688825.SS) | O (08/26/2026) | Rmb40.97 |
| Global Unichip Corp (3443.TW) | O (06/24/2026) | NT$8 000.00 |
| GlobalWafers Co Ltd (6488.TWO) | E (05/19/2026) | NT$880.00 |
| Gudeng Precision (3680.TWO) | O (11/25/2025) | NT$521.00 |
| Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd (1347.HK) | E (03/12/2026) | HK$73.50 |
| Iluvatar CoreX Semiconductor Co. Ltd. (9903.HK) | O (04/27/2026) | HK$80.15 |
| MediaTek (2454.TW) | O (11/28/2025) | NT$4 140.00 |
| MetaX Integrated Circuits (688802.SS) | E (04/27/2026) | Rmb447.36 |
| Nanya Technology Corp. (2408.TW) | O (05/28/2026) | NT$436.50 |
| OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group Inc (603501.SS) | E (11/17/2025) | Rmb77.48 |
| Phison Electronics Corp (8299.TWO) | E (02/25/2026) | NT$1 930.00 |
| SG Micro Corp. (300661.SZ) | E (11/03/2025) | Rmb89.79 |
| Silergy Corp. (6415.TW) | U (05/19/2026) | NT$490.00 |
| SMIC (0981.HK) | O (10/21/2025) | HK$49.96 |
| TSMC (2330.TW) | O (02/07/2022) | NT$2 420.00 |
| UMC (2303.TW) | O (05/19/2026) | NT$128.00 |
| Vanguard International Semiconductor (5347.TWO) | E (01/14/2026) | NT$166.50 |
| WIN Semiconductors Corp (3105.TWO) | E (10/09/2026) | NT$512.00 |
Daisy Dai, CFA
M Update
| ASMPT Ltd (0522.HK) | O (07/24/2025) | HK$134.40 |
|---|---|---|
| China Resources Microelectronics Limited (688396.SS) | U (03/02/2026) | Rmb50.52 |
| Empyrean Technology Co Ltd (301269.SZ) | E (01/17/2025) | Rmb100.00 |
| Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co. Ltd. (600460.SS) | U (08/25/2025) | Rmb25.81 |
| Hygon Information Technology Co. Ltd. (688041.SS) | O (07/03/2026) | Rmb193.30 |
| Innoscience (2577.HK) | E (10/13/2025) | HK$33.40 |
| JCET Group Co Ltd (600584.SS) | O (09/16/2026) | Rmb57.23 |
| Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics (1385.HK) | O (03/07/2025) | HK$23.70 |
| SICC Co Ltd (688234.SS) | O (03/20/2026) | Rmb88.52 |
| SJ Semiconductor Corp (688820.SS) | E (09/16/2026) | Rmb94.49 |
| StarPower Semiconductor Ltd (603290.SS) | E (05/14/2026) | Rmb72.15 |
| Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Ltd (002049.SZ) | U (01/10/2023) | Rmb54.43 |
| Universal Scientific Ind. (Shanghai) (601231.SS) | O (11/05/2025) | Rmb21.49 |
| Yangjie Technology (300373.SZ) | O (06/10/2022) | Rmb77.07 |
| Daniel Yen, CFA | ||
| AP Memory Technology Corp (6531.TW) | O (07/11/2025) | NT$831.00 |
| ASMedia Technology Inc (5269.TW) | U (10/03/2025) | NT$1 485.00 |
| Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO) | O (06/09/2025) | NT$16 515.00 |
| Egis Technology Inc (6462.TWO) | E (01/28/2026) | NT$96.00 |
| Elan Microelectronics Corp (2458.TW) | O (10/03/2025) | NT$130.50 |
| eMemory Technology Inc (3529.TWO) | O (08/18/2026) | NT$2 590.00 |
| Espressif Systems (688018.SS) | O (05/15/2023) | Rmb145.86 |
| GigaDevice Semiconductor Beijing Inc (603986.SS) | O (05/15/2025) | Rmb288.02 |
| Himax Technologies Inc (HIMX.O) | E (02/04/2026) | US$11.85 |
| Macronix International Co Ltd (2337.TW) | O (09/18/2025) | NT$103.00 |
| Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809.HK) | O (03/18/2026) | HK$221.20 |
| Montage Technology Co Ltd (688008.SS) | O (03/18/2026) | Rmb178.34 |
| Novatek (3034.TW) | U (02/04/2026) | NT$590.00 |
| Nuvoton Technology Corporation (4919.TW) | U (11/10/2025) | NT$143.50 |
| Parade Technologies Ltd (4966.TWO) | O (05/27/2026) | NT$527.00 |
| Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (6770.TW) | O (10/27/2025) | NT$66.20 |
| Realtek Semiconductor (2379.TW) | E (01/30/2026) | NT$792.00 |
| Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co Ltd (603160.SS) | U (07/14/2025) | Rmb52.92 |
| Silicon Motion (SIMO.O) | O (05/06/2024) | US$213.70 |
| Winbond Electronics Corp (2344.TW) | O (05/28/2026) | NT$159.50 |
| WPG Holdings (3702.TW) | O (03/16/2026) | NT$115.00 |
| WT Microelectronics Co. Ltd. (3036.TW) | O (01/27/2026) | NT$212.50 |
| Henry Zhao | ||
| ACM Research Inc (ACMR.O) | O (03/07/2023) | US$54.96 |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc (688012.SS) | O (11/06/2023) | Rmb274.00 |
| Maxscend Microelectronics Co Ltd (300782.SZ) | U (01/11/2021) | Rmb56.37 |
| NAURA Technology Group Co Ltd (002371.SZ) | O (11/06/2023) | Rmb560.99 |
| Lucas Wang | ||
| AllRing Tech Co. (6187.TWO) | O (09/23/2025) | NT$1 330.00 |
| FOCI Fiber Optic Communications Inc (3363.TWO) | E (10/09/2026) | NT$549.00 |
| Hon Precision (7769.TW) | O (04/17/2026) | NT$5 130.00 |
| King Yuan Electronics Co Ltd (2449.TW) | O (03/03/2023) | NT$278.00 |
| MPI Corporation (6223.TWO) | O (04/17/2026) | NT$5 005.00 |
| Tiffany Yeh | ||
| WinWay Technology Co Ltd (6515.TW) | O (04/17/2026) | NT$4 970.00 |
Stock Ratings ar subj ct to chang . Pl as s lat st r s arch for ach company.
- Historical pric s ar not split adjust d.
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-23）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
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50KB | 真資料圖（財務／股價類，不嵌 lib） | 股價與 MS 目標價歷史走勢圖，橫軸 10/01/2023 至 10/01/2026，藍線為股價、紅色虛線階梯為目標價（標示 22.5、25、19、16.5、14.6、13.3、23、30、35、41、66、77、88、71、88、111），上方為評等變更標記（U/A、E/A、E/I、O/A） |