PDF 原檔：報告_MS_Coherent_20261105_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-11-09）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
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41KB | 真資料圖（股價情境，不嵌） | Risk Reward 圖：COHR 股價 2025-11 至 2026-11 走勢，現價 $195.09；12 個月情境 Bull $540（+176.8%，機率約 0.0%）、Base $325（+66.59%，機率 >325 約 4.1%）、Bear $156（-20.04%，機率 <156 約 47.6%） |
報告_MS_Coherent_20261105_002.png |
19KB | 真資料圖（營收地區，不嵌） | 全球營收曝險甜甜圈：North America 50-60%、Mainland China 10-20%、Europe ex UK 10-20%，APAC、Japan、MEA、UK 各 0-10% |
報告_MS_Coherent_20261105_003.png |
26KB | 真資料圖（預估 vs 共識，不嵌） | MS 對 FY Jun 2027e 預估與共識均值：Sales 11,139（均值 10,629；範圍 10,255–11,139）、EBITDA 3,225（均值 2,922）、Net income 2,113（均值 1,963）、EPS 10.07（均值 9.41；範圍 8.26–10.26） |
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59KB | 真資料圖（評等歷史，不嵌） | COHR 股價與 MS PT 歷史，2023-11 至 2026-11；PT 階梯含 39、45、58、72、100、120、115、110、47、70、83、97、89、125、150、180、200、250、330、375，最近一次 375→325；股價高點約 430 後回落至約 195 |
原始內容
M Update November 5, 2026 09:37 AM GMT
Coherent Corp | North America
Shining the Light a Little Further Out
A phaSigna s Earnings Reaction
| Strengthens our thesis | Modest upside | Meaningful revision higher |
|---|---|---|
| I pact to our thesis | Financial results versus consensus | Direction of next 12- onth |
Source: Co pany data, Morgan Stanley Research
COHR's FQ1 and FQ2 outlooks were about in line with bogeys entering into the quarter as dataco business continues to ra p. However, details around new PhotonLink LTA and longerter gross argin guidance were eaningful positives, particularly given recent selloff.
Key Takeaways
- LT growth trajectory got a boost with incremental detail around new NPO LTA co previously talked to, noting potential to be $20bn over 5 yrs (starting in 28).
- Near-term margin trajectory still disappointing to investors, but as CPO / NPO opportunity ramps, company sees opportunity to post 45%+ gross margins. ■
- While subject to A capex trade volatility, strategic activity in the space validates opportunity and valuation increasingly looks attractive. ■
Not a 'perfect 10' quarter, but should be good enough to impress the udges.
COHR has been weak over the last quarter as investors have been frustrated with the degree of visibility being given into the business and pace of gross margin accretion, along with just general weakness in the A trade. While the pace of pickup in gross margins continues to be slower than investors would like, the company continues to outperform on the top line, is seeing traction with its high-powered lasers and has nearly doubled our FY28 estimates YTD. While we don't expect the name to be trading at the elevated multiples it was trading at earlier in the year, the name, now basically flat YTD, is valuing COHR, a name with a 50%+ EPS CAGR, at ~13x FY28e EPS. We would like to get a greater sense of how the CPO / NPO business is going to build in the coming years, but new $20bn 5-year LTA starting in CY28 and recent strategic activity increase confidence in the scale of business in the coming years. n a normal setup, the slight misses would likely have driven a modestly negative reaction, but with shares already down sharply over the past week, we expect the stock to be largely flat.
Notable highlights from the quarter:
- 1) CPO / NPO engagements continue to grow. As we noted coming out of ECOC and COHR's PhotonLink event, confidence is growing around industry demand for CPO / NPO in 2028. Coherent noted 10+ CPO engagements, 10+
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
Meta A Marshall
Equity Analyst
Meta.Marshall@ organstanley.co
+1 212 761-0430
Antonio Jaramillo
Research Associate
Antonio.Jara illo@ organstanley.co
+1 212 761-4438
Coherent Corp (COHR.N, COHR US)
Telecom & Networking Equipment | United States of America
| Stock Rating | Equal-weight |
|---|---|
| Industr View | In-Line |
| Price target | $325.00 |
| Shr price, close (Nov 4, 2026) | $195.09 |
| Mkt cap, curr ( ) | $39,408 |
| 52-Week Range | $440.00-123.80 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 06/26 | 06/27e | 06/28e | 06/29e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS ($)** | 5.61 | 10.07 | 15.19 | 18.98 |
| Prior EPS ($)** | - | 9.24 | 13.29 | 16.74 |
| EPS ($)§ | 5.46 | 9.41 | 14.03 | 19.72 |
| P/E | 85.4 | 21.8 | 13.8 | 10.9 |
| ModelWare EPS ($) | 4.62 | 8.96 | 14.11 | 17.93 |
| Div yld (%) | - | - | - | - |
Unless otherwise noted, all etrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare fra ework
** = Based on consensus ethodology
- § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Esti ates
e = Morgan Stanley Research esti ates
Quarterly EPS ($)
| Quarter | 2026 | 2027e | 2027e PriorCurrent | 2028e | 2028e PriorCurrent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 1.16 | - | 2.09a | 2.94 | 3.39 |
| Q2 | 1.29 | 2.18 | 2.36 | 3.22 | 3.70 |
| Q3 | 1.41 | 2.42 | 2.61 | 3.52 | 3.99 |
| Q4 | 1.74 | 2.67 | 2.98 | 3.58 | 4.09 |
- e = Morgan Stanley Research esti ates, a = Actual Co pany reported data
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
M Update
NPO engagements, 5+ chip-to-chip engagements. While the company had noted a new NPO deal at ECOC, it gave greater context for it on the earnings call, noting it has the potential for be $20bn over a 5-year period starting in CY28. The company also sized the CPO / PhotonLink business in the near term, noting it expects the scale-out CPO opportunity to be over $100mm in the March quarter (FQ3), and to exceed $250mm by the end of CY27. There has been much debate as to whether COHR's ultra-high power 400mw CW lasers are certified for shipment in NVDA boxes, but COHR continues to insist that it will start seeing this revenue in 2027.
- 2) Committing to a higher gross margin target as those businesses layer in. Along with earnings, COHR made some longer-term target updates on revenue and gross margins. Expecting to achieve a $4bn quarter revenue run rate in FY28, the company now has the faith that it can achieve 45%+ gross margins before CY28. The biggest knock from investors has been around COHR's gross margins, which have accreted at a slower pace than peers. While much of this gross margin accretion likely comes in CY2028 as CPO ramps, we did see the disclosures as a positive, particularly given how fast the transceiver business is growing.
- 3) InP ramp ahead of plan, have not yet increased vertically integrated percentage. The company noted that nP output capacity doubled Y/Y in Q1, a quarter ahead of plan. While investors have been concerned around availability of 6" substrate, the company felt comfortable with overall availability, noting multiple sources. To questions on eventual gross margin leverage, the company noted that the mix of external / internal lasers has largely stayed the same as they have ramped, but that it envisions this mix eventually moving back more towards internal, another gross margin lever.
Revising estimates to reflect ramps. COHR's FQ1 revenue / non-GAAP gross margin / EPS were $2,370mm / 40.6% / $2.09 versus our estimates of $2,302mm / 40.5% / $1.96, driven by continued strength in A datacenter and communications. Datacenter and Communications revenue grew 79% Y/Y and represented 82% of total sales, with datacenter and communications revenue up 85% and 84%, respectively. Upside reflected strong demand across 800G / 1.6T connectivity and scale-across / DC , while ndustrial segment largely stayed flat. Growth in transceiver business, without mix of internal / external sourcing likely weighed on gross margin pickup. Scale-across / DC revenue exceeded $200mm in FQ1. For FQ2, management guided to revenue / non-GAAP gross margin / EPS of $2.55bn-$2.75bn / 40.0%-42.0% / $2.28-$2.48 and now expects FY27 pro forma revenue growth to exceed 60%, with the first $3bn revenue quarter by FY27-end and the first $4bn quarter in FY28. We revised our FQ2 / FY27 non-GAAP revenue / EPS estimates $2,649.4 / $2.36 and $11,139.1 / $10.07 from $2,522.9 / $2.18 and $10,554.2 / $9.24, respectively.
Remain at $325 PT, which represents a large opportunity when AI capex drawdown ends. We think COHR has an opportunity for growing content in the data center, which strategic activity in the space attests too. While caught up in the more general capex trade drawdown, we do think investors have become too pessimistic on COHR. We don't expect a quarter in the next couple where we are M Update really positively surprised by gross margins, but likely within the next year we can start seeing more meaningful accretion. Our targets now reflect broadly aligned valuation multiples, at ~21x our FY28e EPS of ~$15 (vs. 25x previously). We believe premium multiple remain warranted by A exposure, capacity-driven earnings growth, and longer-term opportunities across transceivers, OCS, and CPO, although a broader A valuation correction, slower capacity execution, and continued EML constraints remain the key risks.
M Update
Analysis
Exhibit 1: Esti ate Changes
| ($ millions, except per share data) | 2026A | Y/Y (%) | Q1-27A | Q2-27E | Q3-27E | Q4-27E | 2027E | Y/Y (%) | 2028E | Y/Y (%) | 2029E | Y/Y (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Revenue | $7,118.1 | 23% | $2,370.3 | $2,649.4 | $2,878.5 | $3,240.9 | $11,139.1 | 56% | $15,791.1 | 42% | $19,843.6 | 26% |
| Old Revenue % Change | $7,118.1 0% | 23% | $2,301.9 3% | $2,522.9 5% | $2,745.8 5% | $2,983.6 9% | $10,554.2 6% | 48% | $14,267.4 11% | 35% | $18,090.8 10% | 27% |
| New Gross Profit New Gross Margin | $2,806.5 39% | 27% | $961.9 41% | $1,082.5 41% | $1,185.6 41% | $1,346.9 42% | $4,576.9 41% | 63% | $6,673.7 42% | 46% | $8,508.4 43% | 27% |
| Old Gross Profit Old Gross Margin % Change | $2,806.5 39% 0% | 27% | $931.7 40% 3% | $1,025.6 41% 6% | $1,121.9 41% 6% | $1,224.9 41% 10% | $4,304.0 41% 6% | 53% | $5,921.1 42% 13% | 38% | $7,621.9 42% 12% | 29% |
| New Operating Income New Operating Margin | $1,456.8 20% | 40% | $550.3 23% | $632.6 24% | $707.0 25% | $818.4 25% | $2,708.3 24% | 86% | $4,287.0 27% | 58% | $5,629.8 28% | 31% |
| Old Operating Income Old Operating Margin % Change | $1,456.8 20% 0% | 40% | $522.6 23% 5% | $586.0 23% 8% $2.36 | $656.2 24% 8% $2.61 | $733.7 25% 12% $2.98 | $2,498.4 24% 8% | 71% | $3,768.2 26% 14% $15.19 | 51% 51% | $4,995.2 28% 13% | 33% |
| New Adjusted EPS | $5.61 | 59% | $2.09 | $10.07 | 80% | $18.98 | 25% | |||||
| Old Adjusted EPS | $5.61 | 59% | $1.96 | $2.18 | $2.42 | $2.67 | $9.24 | 65% | $13.29 14% | 44% | $16.74 | 26% |
| % Change | 0% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 13% |
Source: Co pany data, Morgan Stanley Research esti ates M Update
Risk Reward - Coherent Corp (COHR.N) Risk Reward - Coherent Corp (COHR.N)
Street Building In Material Margin Improvement as Capacity Comes Online
$325.00 PRICE TARGET
~21x Base FY28e EPS (~$15). Multiple trades at premium to historical trading range given AI exposure, trading more in-line with AI comps.
$394.35
Consensus Price Target Distribution
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
RISK REWARD CHART AND OPTIONS IMPLIED PROBABILITIES (12M)
Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 4 Nov 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either three-months ' or one-years ' time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here
BULL CASE
BASE CASE
EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS
- ▪Near-term AI/ML opportunity and potential earnings optionality as net interest expense is worked down
- ▪Valuation reflects volatility in end demand, particularly against more challenging Analyst Day targets
- ▪Several levers to improve earnings power, including gross margin improvements and debt reduction
- ▪Believe in longer term growth opportunity given attractive focus on differentiated processes and diversified customer base, with meaningful exposure to AI opportunity
Consensus Rating Distribution
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
Risk Reward Themes
| Electric Vehicles: | Positive |
|---|---|
| Secular Growth: | Positive |
| Special Situation: | Positive |
View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here
BEAR CASE
$540.00
~30x Bull Case CY28 Earnings Power of (~$18)
Multiple sees expansion if company able to gain share in datacomm; expand margins north of 42%. EPS power accounts for COHR executing on self-help story, and able to raise operating margins on the business. Able to participate more meaningfully in CPO / OCS.
$325.00
~21x Base Case FY28 Earnings Power of ~$15
Spending trajectory healthy, multiple remains elevated given more confidence in margins. Getting credit for growth trajectory as InP capacity ramps. Partial credit for CPO / OCS business ramps. Earnings power closer to ~$15 and multiple trades at a premium to historical trading levels given AI exposure.
$156.00
13x Bear Case FY28 EPS of ~$12
See deterioration in pricing as too much capacity comes along. COHR is unable to execute on vision laid out at Analyst Day, limiting changes to interest expense or margin profile. Peak growth in FY27 causes multiple to trade slightly above 5-year minimums on the name.
M Update
Risk Reward - Coherent Corp (COHR.N)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS
| Drivers | Jun 2026 | Jun 2027e | Jun 2028e | Jun 2029e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth Y/Y (%) | 22.5 | 56.5 | 41.8 | 25.7 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 39.4 | 41.1 | 42.3 | 42.9 |
| Operating Margin (%) | 20.5 | 24.3 | 27.1 | 28.4 |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 2.89 | 2.28 | 1.54 | 1.29 |
INVESTMENT DRIVERS
- What is the risk of China insourcing?
- Can 3D sensing still be an attractive market for COHR?
- Can COHR get larger than expected synergies out of Coherent?
- Can datacomm components capture outsized opportunity with AI?
GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate View explanation of regional hierarchies here
MS ALPHA MODELS
| 5/5 | 24 Month | 5/5 | 3 Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| BEST | Horizon | MOST | Horizon |
Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Quintile
RISKS TO PT/RATING
RISKS TO UPSIDE
- Pricing increases help gross margins
- 1.6T AI opportunity ramps faster than expected, benefitting margins
- Recovery in non-datacomm portions of business
- CPO / NPO ramps quicker than expected
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE
- CPO / NPO delayed
- AI build out pause
- Competitive pressures in datacomm
OWNERSHIP POSITIONING
| Inst. Owners, % Active | 54.8% |
|---|---|
| HF Sector Long/Short Ratio | 2.2x |
| HF Sector Net Exposure | 30.6% |
Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund exposures held with MSPB. Information may be inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) / (Across all sectors: Long Exposure - Short Exposure).
MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS
FY Jun 2027e Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research M Update
Financials
Exhibit 2: COHR: Inco e State ent
| Sep-25 Q1-26A | Dec-25 Q2-26A | Mar-26 Q3-26A | Jun-26 Q4-26A | Sep-26 Q1-27A | Dec-26 Q2-27E | Mar-27 Q3-27E | Jun-27 Q4-27E | Sep-27 Q1-28E | Dec-27 Q2-28E | Mar-28 Q3-28E | Jun-28 Q4-28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | 1,581.4 | 1,685.6 | 1,805.6 | 2,045.5 | 2,370.3 | 2,649.4 | 2,878.5 | 3,240.9 | 3,597.0 | 3,864.7 | 4,100.5 | 4,228.9 |
| % chg q/q | 3.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 13.3% | 15.9% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.1% |
| % chg y/y | 17.3% | 17.5% | 20.5% | 33.7% | 49.9% | 57.2% | 59.4% | 58.4% | 51.8% | 45.9% | 42.5% | 30.5% |
| Cost of Sales | 968.8 | 1,028.5 | 1,091.4 | 1,222.9 | 1,408.4 | 1,566.9 | 1,692.9 | 1,894.0 | 2,091.4 | 2,236.7 | 2,360.3 | 2,429.0 |
| Total Gross Profit | 612.6 | 657.1 | 714.2 | 822.6 | 961.9 | 1,082.5 | 1,185.6 | 1,346.9 | 1,505.6 | 1,628.1 | 1,740.1 | 1,799.9 |
| Total Gross Margin | 38.7% | 39.0% | 39.6% | 40.2% | 40.6% | 40.9% | 41.2% | 41.6% | 41.9% | 42.1% | 42.4% | 42.6% |
| Internal R&D Expense | 147.9 | 158.8 | 178.4 | 208.3 | 226.7 | 238.4 | 259.1 | 291.7 | 309.3 | 336.2 | 356.7 | 367.9 |
| SG&A Expense | 155.8 | 162.3 | 169.7 | 168.5 | 184.9 | 211.5 | 219.5 | 236.8 | 255.3 | 254.8 | 251.2 | 255.1 |
| Total Op Expenses | 303.7 | 321.1 | 348.1 | 376.8 | 411.6 | 449.9 | 478.5 | 528.5 | 564.7 | 591.1 | 607.9 | 623.0 |
| Operating Income | 308.9 | 336.0 | 366.1 | 445.8 | 550.3 | 632.6 | 707.0 | 818.4 | 940.9 | 1,037.0 | 1,132.2 | 1,176.9 |
| Total Operating Margin | 19.5% | 19.9% | 20.3% | 21.8% | 23.2% | 23.9% | 24.6% | 25.3% | 26.2% | 26.8% | 27.6% | 27.8% |
| Interest expense | (58.7) | (45.9) | (44.6) | (41.1) | (46.3) | (45.2) | (45.0) | (44.7) | (43.3) | (40.3) | (37.2) | (34.2) |
| Other income (expense) | 22.2 | 15.6 | 18.7 | 27.9 | 16.3 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.8 | 24.6 | 25.7 | 27.2 |
| Income Before Taxes | 272.4 | 305.7 | 340.2 | 432.6 | 520.3 | 609.3 | 684.0 | 795.7 | 920.4 | 1,021.3 | 1,120.7 | 1,170.0 |
| Effective Tax Rate | 18.9% | 18.8% | 19.0% | 18.8% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% |
| Income Tax Provision | 51.5 | 57.5 | 64.0 | 81.4 | 98.3 | 115.1 | 129.2 | 150.3 | 173.9 | 193.0 | 211.7 | 221.0 |
| Pro Forma Net Income to Common | 220.9 | 248.2 | 276.2 | 351.2 | 422.0 | 494.2 | 554.8 | 645.4 | 746.5 | 828.3 | 909.0 | 948.9 |
| Basic Shares Outstanding | 156.2 | 167.5 | 190.2 | 195.7 | 196.2 | 200.2 | 204.2 | 208.2 | 212.2 | 216.2 | 220.2 | 224.2 |
| Fuly Diluted Shares Outstanding | 190.7 | 192.8 | 196.4 | 202.2 | 202.0 | 206.0 | 210.0 | 214.0 | 218.0 | 222.0 | 226.0 | 230.0 |
| Fuly Diluted Shares Outstanding GAAP | 156.2 | 167.5 | 190.2 | 195.7 | 196.2 | 200.2 | 204.2 | 208.2 | 212.2 | 216.2 | 220.2 | 224.2 |
| Fuly Diluted Shares Outstanding Non-GAAP | 190.7 | 192.8 | 196.4 | 202.2 | 202.0 | 206.0 | 210.0 | 214.0 | 218.0 | 222.0 | 226.0 | 230.0 |
| Change | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 - | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Adjusted EPS | - $1.16 | - $1.29 | - $1.41 | - $1.74 | - $2.09 | - $2.40 | - $2.64 | - $3.02 | - $3.42 | $3.73 | - $4.02 | - $4.13 |
| GAAP EPS | $1.19 | $0.76 | $0.97 | $1.19 | $1.90 | $1.83 | $2.06 | $2.43 | $2.75 | $3.20 | $3.47 | $3.57 |
| FY 2023A | FY 2024A | FY 2025A | FY 2026A | FY 2027E | FY 2028E | FY 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5,160.2 | 4,707.7 | 5,810.1 | 7,118.1 | 11,139.1 | 15,791.1 | 19,843.6 |
| 55.6% | -8.8% | 23.4% | 22.5% | 56.5% | 41.8% | 25.7% |
| 3,176.1 1,984.1 38.4% | 3,092.7 1,615.0 34.3% | 3,607.9 2,202.2 37.9% | 4,311.6 2,806.5 39.4% | 6,562.2 4,576.9 41.1% | 9,117.4 6,673.7 42.3% | 11,335.2 8,508.4 42.9% |
| 473.4 544.2 1,017.6 | 451.8 544.8 996.6 | 554.3 611.0 1,165.3 | 693.4 656.3 1,349.7 | 1,015.9 852.7 1,868.6 | 1,370.2 1,016.4 2,386.7 | 1,662.4 1,216.2 2,878.6 |
| 966.5 18.7% | 618.4 13.1% | 1,036.9 17.8% | 1,456.8 20.5% | 2,708.3 24.3% | 4,287.0 27.1% | 5,629.8 28.4% |
| (286.9) 13.9 | (288.5) 58.7 | (243.2) 82.8 | (190.3) 84.4 | (181.3) 82.3 | 100.3 | (106.1) 131.0 |
| 693.5 | 388.6 | 876.5 | 1,350.9 | 2,609.4 | (154.9) 4,232.4 | 5,654.7 |
| 18.2% | 20.0% | 21.0% | 18.8% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% |
| 126.0 567.6 | 77.8 310.8 | 184.0 692.5 | 254.4 1,096.5 | 493.0 2,116.4 | 799.6 3,432.8 | 1,068.3 4,586.4 |
| 137.6 146.6 | 151.6 154.3 | 154.8 159.2 | 177.4 195.5 | 202.2 208.0 | 218.2 16.0 | 240.0 |
| 7.7 | 5.0 | 36.3 | 12.5 | 234.2 | ||
| 21.1 | 224.0 | 16.0 | ||||
| $2.99 | $1.21 | $3.54 | $5.61 $4.11 | $10.17 | $15.32 $12.98 | $19.11 $16.87 |
| ($1.80) | ($1.81) | ($0.53) | ||||
| $8.22 |
Source: Co pany data, Morgan Stanley Research esti ates
Exhibit 3: COHR: Revenue Breakdown
| Sep-25 Q1-26A | Dec-25 Q2-26A | Mar-26 Q3-26A | Jun-26 Q4-26A | Sep-26 Q1-27A | Dec-26 Q2-27E | Mar-27 Q3-27E | Jun-27 Q4-27E | Sep-27 Q1-28E | Dec-27 Q2-28E | Mar-28 Q3-28E | Jun-28 Q4-28E | FY 2023A | FY 2024A | FY 2025A | FY 2026A | FY 2027E | FY 2028E | FY 2029E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue By Segment | |||||||||||||||||||
| Materials / Compound Semiconductor | 217.9 | 194.3 | 196.0 | 198.2 | 195.8 | 201.0 | 197.4 | 199.4 | 205.3 | 211.3 | 207.7 | 209.9 | 1349.8 | 1016.6 | 953.8 | 806.4 | 793.6 | 834.2 | 879.5 |
| SiC | 35.2 | 34.0 | 24.1 | 23.4 | 26.4 | 25.5 | 24.1 | 23.4 | 26.4 | 25.5 | 24.1 | 23.4 | 203.2 | 239.9 | 192.9 | 116.7 | 99.4 | 99.4 | 99.4 |
| EUV | 46.5 | 50.0 | 48.6 | 50.7 | 46.5 | 50.0 | 48.6 | 50.7 | 51.2 | 55.0 | 53.4 | 55.8 | 204.4 | 183.9 | 180.0 | 195.8 | 195.8 | 215.4 | 236.9 |
| 3D sensing | 25.2 | 24.5 | 22.0 | 22.8 | 20.2 | 19.6 | 17.6 | 18.2 | 19.2 | 18.6 | 16.8 | 17.3 | 413.6 | 117.0 | 91.3 | 94.6 | 75.7 | 71.9 | 68.3 |
| Military | 25.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 192.2 | 191.9 | 217.4 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CO2 / Fiber Laser Components | 51.4 | 56.6 | 57.7 | 57.7 | 59.1 | 62.3 | 63.5 | 63.4 | 65.0 | 68.5 | 69.8 | 69.8 | 240.0 | 199.7 | 196.3 | 223.4 | 248.3 | 273.2 | 300.5 |
| Other | 33.8 | 28.9 | 43.6 | 43.6 | 43.6 | 43.6 | 43.6 | 43.6 | 43.6 | 43.6 | 43.6 | 43.6 | 85.9 | 82.9 | 75.4 | 149.9 | 174.4 | 174.4 | 174.4 |
| Networking / Photonic Solutions CoAdna | 1004.9 | 1122.4 | 1260.3 | 1513.2 | 1849.1 | 2097.5 | 2349.2 | 2707.4 | 3056.7 | 3292.1 | 3550.9 | 3674.9 | 2,341.0 | 2,295.8 | 3,421.3 - | 4,900.8 | 9,003.2 | 13,574.6 | 17,540.3 |
| ROADMS DataCenter Total | 148.5 436.8 | - - | - | - - | - - | - - | - - | ||||||||||||
| 126.7 | - - | - | - | - | - - | - - | |||||||||||||
| Datacom Total Telecom Total Transceiver / Datacomm | 417.4 | - | - | - - | - | ||||||||||||||
| 1,180.5 | - - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||
| 810.2 | 922.3 | 1030.2 | 1222.7 | 1405.5 | 1581.0 | 1771.3 | 1981.4 | 2099.4 | 2229.5 | 2358.3 | 2354.0 | 3,985.3 | 6,739.2 | 9,041.2 | 10,489.9 | ||||
| Total Telecom | 194.7 | 194.5 | 211.0 | 235.4 | 349.4 | 345.3 | 371.3 | 415.6 | 518.8 | 512.7 | 551.7 | 618.3 | 835.5 | 1,481.6 | 2,201.5 | 2,741.5 | |||
| OCS | 0.0 | 5.7 | 14.3 | 35.1 | 52.5 | 73.6 | 82.2 | 113.0 | 154.1 | 207.2 | 230.9 | 248.7 | 55.1 | 321.4 | 841.0 | 1,287.6 | |||
| CPO | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 20.8 | 41.7 | 97.6 | 124.4 | 197.3 | 284.3 | 342.7 | 409.9 | 453.9 | 27.6 | 461.1 | 1,490.8 | 3,021.3 | |||
| Adjustment | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 | -0.8 | - | 2.8 | - | - | - | ||||||||||
| Lasers / Legacy Cohorent | 358.2 | 369.3 | 349.3 | 334.1 | 325.5 | 350.8 | 331.9 | 334.1 | 335.0 | 361.4 | 341.8 | 344.1 | 1,469.4 | 1,395.4 | 1,435.0 | 1,411.0 | 1,342.3 | 1,382.3 | 1,423.8 |
| Total | 1581.0 | 1686.0 | 1805.7 | 2045.5 | 2370.3 | 2649.4 | 2878.5 | 3240.9 | 3597.0 | 3864.7 | 4100.5 | 4228.9 | 5,160.2 | 4,707.7 | 5,810.1 | 7,118.1 | 11,139.1 | 15,791.1 | 19,843.6 |
| Materials | 14% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 26% | 22% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 5% | 4% |
| Networking | 64% | 67% | 70% | 74% | 78% | 79% | 82% | 84% | 85% | 85% | 87% | 87% | 45% | 49% | 59% | 69% | 81% | 86% | 88% |
| Lasers | 23% | 22% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 28% | 30% | 25% | 20% | 12% | 9% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| NEW SEGMENTATION | |||||||||||||||||||
| Datacenter & Communications | 1090.0 | 1208.0 | 1361.6 | 1615.0 | 1951.8 | 2203.4 | 2456.3 | 2814.4 | 3165.3 | 3404.3 | 3664.4 | 3788.3 | 3,756.0 | 5,274.6 | 9,426.0 | 14,022.2 | 18,015.2 | ||
| Industrial | 491.0 | 478.0 | 444.0 | 431.0 | 418.6 | 446.0 | 422.2 | 426.5 | 431.8 | 460.5 | 436.1 | 440.6 | 2,054.0 | 1,844.0 | 1,713.1 | 1,769.0 | 1,828.4 | ||
| Total | 1581.0 | 1686.0 | 1805.7 | 2046.0 | 2370.3 | 2649.4 | 2878.5 | 3240.9 | 3597.0 | 3864.7 | 4100.5 | 4228.9 | 5,810.0 | 7,118.7 | 11,139.1 | 15,791.1 | 19,843.6 |
Source: Co pany data, Morgan Stanley Research esti ates
Exhibit 4: COHR: Balance Sheet
| Sep-25 Q1-26A | Dec-25 Q2-26A | Mar-26 Q3-26A | Jun-26 Q4-26A | Sep-26 Q1-27A | Dec-26 Q2-27E | Mar-27 Q3-27E | Jun-27 Q4-27E | Sep-27 Q1-28E | Dec-27 Q2-28E | Mar-28 Q3-28E | Jun-28 Q4-28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | ||||||||||||
| Cash and cash equivalents | 875.3 | 899.2 | 2,459.7 | 2,022.2 | 1,797.5 | 1,202.1 | 670.6 | (16.4) | (21.3) | 132.4 | 385.2 | 787.5 |
| Accounts receivable, net | 1,027.2 | 1,054.6 | 1,187.9 | 1,343.3 | 1,604.2 | 1,793.1 | 1,948.1 | 2,193.4 | 2,434.4 | 2,615.6 | 2,775.2 | 2,862.1 |
| Inventories, net | 1,632.6 | 1,847.9 | 2,126.8 | 2,581.0 | 3,341.4 | 3,717.4 | 4,016.4 | 4,493.4 | 4,961.8 | 5,306.5 | 5,599.8 | 5,762.7 |
| Prepaid and refundable income taxes | 44.8 | 44.1 | 45.5 | 78.9 | 52.5 | 58.7 | 63.8 | 71.8 | 79.7 | 85.6 | 90.8 | 93.7 |
| Prepayments and other current assets | 462.0 | 547.6 | 625.3 | 900.1 | 1,128.7 | 1,261.6 | 1,370.7 | 1,543.3 | 1,712.8 | 1,840.3 | 1,952.6 | 2,013.7 |
| Others | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Total current assets | 4,041.9 | 4,393.4 | 6,445.2 | 6,925.5 | 7,924.3 | 8,032.9 | 8,069.6 | 8,285.4 | 9,167.5 | 9,980.4 | 10,803.6 | 11,519.7 |
| Property, plant and equipment, net | 1,944.4 | 2,117.0 | 2,420.1 | 2,999.3 | 3,869.8 | 4,636.4 | 5,458.1 | 6,377.1 | 6,607.7 | 6,861.7 | 7,135.0 | 7,415.5 |
| Goodwil | 4,474.8 | 4,462.8 | 4,402.4 | 4,375.6 | 4,448.3 | 4,448.3 | 4,448.3 | 4,448.3 | 4,448.3 | 4,448.3 | 4,448.3 | 4,448.3 |
| Other intangible assets, net | 3,133.2 | 3,064.1 | 2,958.2 | 2,884.5 | 2,815.9 | 2,746.4 | 2,677.0 | 2,607.5 | 2,538.1 | 2,468.6 | 2,399.2 | 2,329.7 |
| Investment Deferred income taxes | - 53.9 | - 69.1 | - 72.1 | - 69.4 | - 90.4 | - 90.4 | - 90.4 | - 90.4 | - 90.4 | - 90.4 | - 90.4 | - 90.4 |
| Other assets | 1,050.6 | 981.4 | 988.7 | 1,045.6 | 1,098.9 | 1,098.9 | 1,098.9 | 1,098.9 | 1,098.9 | 1,098.9 | 1,098.9 | 1,098.9 |
| Total Assets | 14,698.8 | 15,087.8 | 17,286.7 | 18,299.9 | 20,247.6 | 21,053.4 | 21,842.3 | 22,907.7 | 23,950.9 | 24,948.4 | 25,975.5 | 26,902.5 |
| Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity | ||||||||||||
| Current portion of long term debt | 48.4 | 106.5 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 |
| Accounts payable | 953.9 | 1,118.5 | 1,343.4 | 1,905.4 | 2,506.4 | 2,788.5 | 3,012.7 | 3,370.5 | 3,721.9 | 3,980.4 | 4,200.5 | 4,322.6 |
| Accrued compensation and benefits Accrued income taxes payable | - 41.4 | - 43.0 | - 52.4 | - 61.4 | - 68.3 | - 76.3 | - 82.9 | - 93.4 | - 103.6 | - 111.4 | - 118.2 | - 121.9 |
| Other accrued liabilities | 692.3 | 683.1 | 708.6 | 879.3 | 862.0 | 963.5 | 1,046.8 | 1,178.6 | 1,308.1 | 1,405.5 | 1,491.2 | 1,537.9 |
| Others Total current liabilities | - 1,736.0 | - 1,951.1 | - 2,113.4 | - 2,854.0 | - 3,456.6 | - 3,848.2 | - 4,162.4 | - 4,662.4 | - 5,153.6 | - 5,517.2 | - 5,829.7 | - 6,002.3 |
| Long term debt | 3,259.4 | 3,245.4 | 3,184.8 | 3,214.3 | 3,980.7 | 3,187.8 | 3,177.2 | 3,166.6 | 3,041.6 | 2,916.6 | 2,791.6 | 2,666.6 |
| Capital lease obligation Deferred income tax | - 629.5 | - 643.3 | - 605.8 | - 540.6 | - 503.7 | - 503.7 | - 503.7 | - 503.7 | - 503.7 | - 503.7 | - 503.7 | - 503.7 |
| Other liabilities | 386.6 | 359.7 | 367.1 | 452.8 | 644.9 | 644.9 | 644.9 | 644.9 | 644.9 | 644.9 | 644.9 | 644.9 |
| Total Liabilities | 6,011.5 | 6,199.5 | 6,271.1 | 7,061.7 | 8,585.9 | 8,184.6 | 8,488.1 | 8,977.6 | 9,343.7 | 9,582.3 | 9,769.9 | 9,817.5 |
| Preferred stock | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 |
| Common stock | 5,118.7 | 5,118.7 | 5,118.7 | 5,118.7 | 5,118.7 | 5,165.6 | 5,218.7 | 5,275.3 | 5,352.1 | 5,401.3 | 5,457.1 | 5,516.5 |
| Accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income | 339.7 | 339.7 | 339.7 | 339.7 | 339.7 | 339.7 | 339.7 | 339.7 | 339.7 | 339.7 | 339.7 | 339.7 |
| Retained earnings | 777.2 | 978.2 | 3,105.5 | 3,328.1 | 3,751.6 | 4,129.6 | 4,561.8 | 5,081.1 | 5,681.3 | 6,391.0 | 7,174.8 | 7,994.8 |
| Treasury Stock | (53.7) | (53.7) | (53.7) | (53.7) | (53.7) | (53.7) | (53.7) | (53.7) | (53.7) | (53.7) | (53.7) | (53.7) |
| Total Shareholders' Equity | 8,687.3 | 8,888.3 | 11,015.6 | 11,238.2 | 11,661.7 | 12,086.4 | 12,571.8 | 13,147.7 | 13,824.8 | 14,583.7 | 15,423.2 | 16,302.7 |
| Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity | 14,698.8 | 15,087.8 | 17,286.7 | 18,299.9 | 20,247.6 | 20,271.0 | 21,059.9 | 22,125.3 | 23,168.5 | 24,166.0 | 25,193.1 | 26,120.2 |
| FY | FY | FY | FY | FY | FY | FY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026A | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
| 833.3 | 1,100.0 | 918.1 | 2,022.2 | (16.4) | 787.5 | 1,932.6 |
| 901.5 | 848.5 | 964.1 | 1,343.3 | 2,193.4 | 2,862.1 | 3,702.8 |
| 1,272.3 | 1,286.4 | 1,437.6 | 2,581.0 | 4,493.4 | 5,762.7 | 7,412.3 |
| 28.3 | 26.9 | 55.8 | 78.9 | 71.8 | 93.7 | 121.2 |
| 216.5 - | 398.2 - | 551.6 - | 900.1 - | 1,543.3 - | 2,013.7 - | 2,605.2 - |
| 3,252.0 | 3,660.1 | 3,927.2 | 6,925.5 | 8,285.4 | 11,519.7 | 15,774.1 |
| 1,782.0 | 1,817.3 | 1,877.5 | 2,999.3 | 6,377.1 | 7,415.5 | 8,972.4 |
| 4,512.7 | 4,464.3 | 4,471.1 | 4,375.6 | 4,448.3 | 4,448.3 | 4,448.3 |
| 3,814.7 - | 3,503.2 - | 3,204.7 - | 2,884.5 - | 2,607.5 - | 2,329.7 - | 2,051.9 - |
| 37.7 | 41.0 | 53.4 | 69.4 | 90.4 | 90.4 | 90.4 |
| 312.0 | 1,002.7 | 1,377.0 | 1,045.6 | 1,098.9 | 1,098.9 | 1,098.9 |
| 13,711.1 | 14,488.6 | 14,910.9 | 18,299.9 | 22,907.7 | 26,902.5 | 32,436.0 |
| 74.8 | 73.8 | 188.3 | 7.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 |
| 405.3 | 631.5 | 847.0 | 1,905.4 | 3,370.5 | 4,322.6 | 5,560.0 |
| - 38.3 | - 40.6 | - 41.6 | - 61.4 | - 93.4 | - 121.9 | - 157.6 |
| 560.3 - | 597.9 - | 718.0 - | 879.3 - | 1,178.6 - | 1,537.9 - | 1,989.7 - |
| 1,078.7 | 1,343.8 | 1,794.9 | 2,854.0 | 4,662.4 | 6,002.3 | 7,727.2 |
| 4,235.0 - | 4,026.4 - | 3,498.6 - | 3,214.3 - | 3,166.6 - | 2,666.6 - | 2,166.6 - |
| 780.3 | 784.4 | 711.7 | 540.6 | 503.7 | 503.7 | 503.7 |
| 388.2 | 387.8 | 424.5 | 452.8 | 644.9 | 644.9 | 644.9 |
| 6,482.2 | 6,542.4 | 6,429.7 | 7,061.7 | 8,977.6 | 9,817.5 | 11,042.4 |
| 2,686.7 | 2,364.8 | 2,483.3 | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 | 2,505.3 |
| 3,781.2 | 4,857.7 | 5,644.5 | 5,118.7 | 5,275.3 | 5,516.5 | 5,769.8 |
| 109.7 | 374.0 | 489.5 | 339.7 | 339.7 | 339.7 | 339.7 |
| 944.4 | 664.9 | 650.2 | 3,328.1 | 5,081.1 | 7,994.8 | 12,050.1 |
| (293.1) | (315.1) | (786.3) | (53.7) | (53.7) | (53.7) | (53.7) |
| 7,229.0 | 7,946.3 | 8,481.2 | 11,238.2 | 13,147.7 | 16,302.7 | 20,611.2 |
| 13,711.1 | 14,488.6 | 14,910.9 | 18,299.9 | 22,125.3 | 26,120.2 | 31,653.6 |
Source: Co pany data, Morgan Stanley Research esti ates M Update Source: Co pany data, Morgan Stanley Research esti ates M Update
Exhibit 5: COHR: Cash Flow State ent
| Sep-25 Q1-26A | Dec-25 Q2-26A | Mar-26 Q3-26A | Jun-26 Q4-26A | Sep-26 Q1-27A | Dec-26 Q2-27E | Mar-27 Q3-27E | Jun-27 Q4-27E | Sep-27 Q1-28E | Dec-27 Q2-28E | Mar-28 Q3-28E | Jun-28 Q4-28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAAP Cash Flow Statement | ||||||||||||
| OPERATING ACTIVITIES: | ||||||||||||
| Net Income (loss) | 225.2 | 143.8 | 181.7 | 240.5 | 381.6 | 377.9 | 432.2 | 519.3 | 600.2 | 709.7 | 783.8 | 820.0 |
| Depreciation | 53.0 | 55.5 | 62.4 | 64.8 | 77.7 | 100.2 | 120.1 | 141.3 | 165.1 | 171.1 | 177.7 | 184.8 |
| Amortization | 69.4 | 70.5 | 70.5 | 71.7 | 69.5 | 69.5 | 69.5 | 69.5 | 69.5 | 69.5 | 69.5 | 69.5 |
| Stock-based compensation | 44.1 | 42.8 | 49.1 | 53.9 | 74.4 | 46.8 | 53.1 | 56.6 | 76.9 | 49.2 | 55.8 | 59.4 |
| (Gain) loss on foreign currency remeasurements and trans | (4.2) | (4.3) | (1.7) | - | (1.0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Earnings from equity investment | (0.2) | (0.1) | (0.0) | - | (0.2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Deferred income taxes | (83.7) | 10.6 | (65.0) | (62.5) | (55.7) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Excess tax benefits from share-based compensation expen Earnings from discontinued operation, net of tax Others | - - (99.1) | - - (1.6) | - - 1.5 | - - (64.1) | - - 4.6 | - - - | - - - | - - - | - - - | - - - | - - - | - - - |
| Changes in operating assets and liabilities: | - | |||||||||||
| Accounts receivable | (66.6) | (24.8) | (133.9) | (155.4) | (255.3) | (188.9) | (155.0) | (245.3) | (241.0) | (181.2) | (159.5) | (86.9) |
| Inventories | (219.1) | (202.3) | (278.0) | (454.2) | (737.1) | (376.0) | (299.0) | (477.0) | (468.5) | (344.6) | (293.4) | (162.9) |
| Accounts payable | 105.4 | 100.2 | 144.1 | 562.0 | 429.8 | 282.1 | 224.3 | 357.8 | 351.4 | 258.5 | 220.1 | 122.2 |
| Income taxes | 37.2 | (66.4) | 8.1 | (24.4) | (33.0) | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Accrued compensation and benefits | (48.2) | 32.6 | 33.5 | 170.7 | (90.2) | 101.5 | 83.3 | 131.8 | 129.5 | 97.4 | 85.7 | 46.7 |
| Other operating net assets | 32.8 | (98.8) | (166.0) | (274.8) | 42.2 | (132.9) | (109.1) | (172.6) | (169.6) | (127.5) | (112.2) | (61.2) |
| Net cash provided by Discontinued Operations Net cash from Operations | - 46.0 | - 57.9 | - (93.8) | - 128.2 | - (92.7) | - 282.0 | - 420.9 | - 383.9 | - 515.8 | - 703.8 | - 828.9 | - 992.4 |
| INVESTING ACTIVITIES: | ||||||||||||
| Additions to property, plant & equipment | (103.9) | (153.6) | (289.7) | (555.7) | (775.5) | (866.8) | (941.8) | (1,060.3) | (395.7) | (425.1) | (451.1) | (465.2) |
| Purchases/Proceeds from sale of business, net of cash | 391.1 | (5.3) | 51.5 | (7.5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Purchase of equity investment | 9.6 | 21.9 | 17.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other investing activities | (0.0) | (1.5) | (3.5) | 75.8 | (18.0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net cash from Investing Activities | 296.8 | (138.5) | (224.4) | (487.4) | (793.5) | (866.8) | (941.8) | (1,060.3) | (395.7) | (425.1) | (451.1) | (465.2) |
| FINANCING ACTIVITIES: | ||||||||||||
| Proceeds from issuance of convertible senior notes Proceeds from borrowings under Credit Facility Payments on borrowings Purchases of treasury stock | - 1,342.2 (1,727.8) - | - 224.6 (183.0) - | - 315.3 (475.8) 2,000.0 | - 39.3 (13.0) - | - 785.1 (10.6) - | - - (10.6) | - - (10.6) | - - (10.6) | - - (125.0) | - - (125.0) | - - (125.0) | - - (125.0) |
| Proceeeds from exercises of stock options obliga | 21.3 | 8.8 | 21.7 | 2.0 | 19.4 (128.6) | - - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| Payments in satisfaction of employees' minimum tax | (37.4) (8.5) | (7.2) (0.6) | (7.0) 0.0 | (25.8) - | - | - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| Other financing activities Net cash provided by financing activities | (11.1) (421.3) | 0.2 42.9 | 0.3 1,854.4 | (1.1) 1.4 | (0.7) 664.6 | - (10.6) | - (10.6) | - (10.6) | - (125.0) | - (125.0) | - (125.0) | - (125.0) |
| FX Impact | 35.4 | 61.6 | 24.3 | (79.7) | (3.1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| equivalents | (43.2) | (224.7) | (531.5) | 252.8 | 402.3 | |||||||
| Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash | 918.5 | 23.9 | 1,560.5 | (437.5) | 2,022.2 | (595.4) | (687.1) | (4.8) | 153.7 | 132.4 | 385.2 | |
| Cash and cash equivalents at beg. of period Cash and cash equivalents at end of period | 875.3 | 875.3 899.2 | 899.2 2,459.7 | 2,459.7 2,022.2 | 1,797.5 | 1,797.5 1,202.1 | 1,202.1 670.6 | 670.6 (16.4) | (16.4) (21.3) | (21.3) 132.4 | 385.2 | 787.5 |
| FY - 2023A | FY - 2024A | FY - 2025A | FY - 2026A | FY - 2027E | FY - 2028E | FY - 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (259.5) | (158.8) | 46.5 | 791.2 | 1,711.1 | 2,913.7 | 4,055.3 |
| 267.6 | 271.6 | 256.6 | 235.7 | 439.3 | 698.7 | 824.3 |
| 414.1 | 288.2 | 287.0 | 282.1 | 277.8 | 277.8 | 277.8 |
| 148.9 | 126.0 | 160.2 | 189.9 | 230.9 | 241.2 | 253.3 |
| (3.5) | (10.6) | (9.5) | (10.2) | (1.0) | - | - |
| 0.1 | 0.1 | (0.5) | (0.3) | (0.2) | - | - |
| (206.8) - | (112.1) - | (60.6) - | (200.5) - | (55.7) - | - - | - - |
| - 148.6 | - 36.9 | - 5.9 | - (163.3) | - 4.6 - | - - - | - - - |
| 68.3 | 60.6 | (111.2) | (380.7) | (844.5) | (668.7) | (840.7) |
| 174.1 | (23.2) | (159.6) | (1,153.6) | (1,889.1) | (1,269.3) | (1,649.6) |
| (83.3) | 205.0 | 205.1 | 911.7 | 1,293.9 | 952.1 | 1,237.3 |
| 28.7 | 12.3 | (22.2) | (45.5) | (27.2) | 6.6 | 8.3 |
| (57.1) | 36.9 | 167.9 | 188.6 | 226.4 | 359.3 | 451.7 |
| (6.0) | (187.2) | (290.0) | (506.9) | (372.4) | (470.5) | (591.5) |
| - 634.0 | - 545.7 | - 475.7 | - 138.2 | - 994.1 | - 3,041.0 | - 4,026.3 |
| (436.1) | (346.8) | (440.8) | (1,102.9) | (3,644.4) | (1,737.0) | (2,381.2) |
| (5,488.6) - (4.0) (5,928.6) | - - (3.9) (350.7) | 27.0 - (0.4) (414.2) | 429.8 48.8 70.8 (553.5) | - - (18.0) (3,662.4) | - - - | - - - |
| 5,050.0 65.0 (1,333.7) | - - (247.8) | - - (488.7) | - 1,921.4 (2,399.6) 2,000.0 | - 785.1 (42.4) | (1,737.0) - - (500.0) | (2,381.2) - |
| - 24.2 (54.2) (126.5) 3,554.0 | - 42.3 (22.3) - 986.1 | - 49.6 (54.0) - | 53.8 (77.4) (9.1) (11.7) | - 19.4 (128.6) - (0.7) | - - - - - | - (500.0) - - - - |
| (70.7) | 41.4 | (500.0) | - | |||
| 758.3 | (451.7) | 1,477.4 | 632.8 | (500.0) | ||
| (8.5) | (686.6) | 208.6 | 41.6 | (3.1) | - 803.9 | - |
| (1,749.0) | (2,038.7) | 1,145.1 | ||||
| 266.7 | (181.6) | 1,103.7 | ||||
| 2,582.4 | 833.3 | 1,100.0 918.5 | 918.5 2,022.2 | 2,022.2 | (16.4) 787.5 | 787.5 1,932.6 |
| 833.3 | 1,100.0 | (16.4) |
Risk Reward Reference links
- View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology -
Options_Probabilities_Exhibit_Link.pdf
- View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes - RR_Themes_Exhibit_Link.pdf
-
View explanation of regional hierarchies - GEG_Exhibit_Link.pdf
-
View explanation of Theme/Exposure methodology -
ESG_Sustainable_Solutions_External_Link.pdf
- View explanation of HERS methodology - ESG_HERS_External_Link.pdf
M Update
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Te ecom & Networking Equipment
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (11/04/2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Meta A Marshall | ||
| Arista Networks (ANET.N) | O (10/31/2023) | $178.48 |
| Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON.O) | O (12/03/2024) | $424.18 |
| Ciena Corporation (CIEN.N) | E (10/10/2025) | $272.24 |
| Cisco Syste s Inc (CSCO.O) | E (11/05/2026) | $103.61 |
| Coherent Corp (COHR.N) | E (12/13/2023) | $195.09 |
| Corning Inc (GLW.N) | E (06/13/2024) | $118.77 |
| F5 Inc (FFIV.O) | E (04/12/2022) | $329.72 |
| Keysight Technologies Inc (KEYS.N) | O (07/13/2026) | $285.86 |
| Lu entu Holdings Inc (LITE.O) | E (05/12/2021) | $626.75 |
| Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI.N) | O (12/17/2025) | $496.99 |
| Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA.O) | E (12/02/2024) | $332.44 |
Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each co pany.
- Historical prices are not split adjusted.