報告_MS_AI供應鏈2028展望_20260910

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M September 10, 2026 05:26 PM GMT

Asia-Pacific Technology | Asia Pacific

AI Supply Chain: Prelim 2028 AI semis vs. CSP capex growth

AI semi capex, in particular for compute chips, should outgrow overall AI capex in 2028. We add cross-checks on ASICs after AVGO's guidance and the Qualcomm/AWS AI ASIC announcement.

Will 2028 be another growth year for AI semis? Our US internet analyst Brian Nowak published the Morgan Stanley AI Guidebook: Navigating the Age of Inference, and suggests 12% CSP capex growth into 2028, raising investor questions about AI semi growth momentum. Based on our latest supply chain checks, we introduce preliminary 2028 CoWoS/CoPoS/EMIB-T capacity assumptions. In aggregate, we still see 50% capacity growth in 2028 (see Exhibit 1 ), implying flattish infrastructure (e.g., the shell and AI DC) spending and moderate memory pricing in 2028.

Larger chip size and more applications (CPU, networking) to drive further growth in 2028: All these packaging technologies are 2.5D (compute and memory chips on side to side) for AI/HPC chips, including AI GPU, XPU, CPU, and networking.

• ·CoWoS (wafer based): We still see some CoW expansion at TSMC. For oS, TSMC may need more partners than ASE. Our checks suggest both Amkor and Xintec (non-covered) will diversify oS production in the US and Taiwan, respectively.
• CoPoS (panel-based): This is a panel-level process. After converting to 12-inch CoWoS wafer equivalents, we assume 5-10kwpm in 2028. The initial target project should be Nvidia's Feynman Ultra GPU.
• EMIB-T (substrate-based): Although a substrate-based technology, we convert it to 12-inch CoWoS wafer-equivalent capacity as well. One EMIB-T substrate can generate 16 pcs of a 9x reticle-size chip, around 4x the chips a CoWoS wafer can generate. Our checks indicate ~40k-45k wafer-equivalent EMIB-T capacity in 2028, producing at least 2mn of Humufish (9x reticle) substrates. 40k-45k wafer equivalents also imply 10-15% share in 2.5D packaging.

Read-across from recent ASIC guidance at Broadcom and the Qualcomm/AWS partnership

• ·According to Joe Moore's report: Broadcom Inc.: Earnings solid; raising FY 28 EPS, more specific FY27 revenue guidance is now US$115 bn, and that could double again in FY28. Our CoWoS supply-chain checks already see an AVGO AI lab customer booking ~15k-30k CoWoS wafers for 2027.
• ·Qualcomm announced its ASIC partnership with AWS, a key Alchip ASIC customer. However, the press release points to inference, different from Alchip's Trainium4, which covers both training and inference. We therefore see limited impact to Alchip.

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