PDF 原檔：報告_GS_鴻海2317_20260924_original.pdf
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40KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1「Hon Hai's Aug revenues +52% YoY」：2011/1 至 2026 年的月營收 YoY 折線圖（縱軸 -40% 至 120%），2012 年初高點約 98%、2021 年初約 85%，最右端約 50% 上下（財務類圖，公司頁不嵌） |
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68KB | 真資料圖 | 「Hon Hai (2317.TW)」Goldman Sachs 評等與目標價沿革圖（2023/7-2026/6）：目標價標籤 151、148、147.27、149、150、152、172、201、227、257、263、259、239、236、220、205、233、242、263、400；藍線股價與灰線加權指數；註明 Covered by Allen Chang（沿革圖，非公司架構圖，公司頁不嵌） |
原始內容
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Hon Hai (2317.TW): New AI server racks and Foldable phones to drive 3Q / 4Q26E; 3-month revenues preview; Buy (on CL)
We expect Hon Hai's monthly revenues to continue sequential growth through Dec 2026, leading 3Q26 / 4Q26 revenues to grow at +14% / +23% QoQ, driven by (1) AI data center: The next-generation AI server racks and CPO switches ramp up, with higher ASP and early delivery. We expect Hon Hai to be the first one to deliver the latest model, around 2-3 months ahead of peers, driving its Sep and onward revenue growth. Followed by GPU-powered AI server racks, the LPU-powered AI server racks would fuel the growth in Dec and onward, supporting the YoY increase in 1Q27, and (2) Smartphone: riding on the major brand customer's latest model launches along with the new form factor to attract more end users. As we highlight in September (report link), we reduce global smartphone volume estimates by 1m/ 8m/ 0.2m to 1.1bn / 1.2bn/ 1.2bn in 2026-28E, or -10% / +2%/ +2% YoY on high memory costs; however, we remain positive on global leading brands to outperform the market given the strong brand awareness, large procurement power, and customers' stronger consumption power. We remain positive on foldable phones and expect premium models to continue gain market share, positive to Hon Hai. Maintain Buy (on CL).
Exhibit 1: Hon Hai's Aug revenues +52% YoY, or -3% MoM
Source: Company data
3-month revenues preview: We expect company's 3Q26E revenues to be +40% YoY/ +14% QoQ to NT$2.9 trillion. Both Jul and Aug delivered strong revenues YoY growth (+54%/ 52% YoY), and we expect to see both YoY and MoM positive growth in Sep to Dec, driven by new AI server racks, CPO switch, and latest smartphone models and foldable phones. We keep 2026E - 2028E earnings estimates largely unchanged.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 2: Hon Hai monthly revenues since Jan 2025
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: We model Hon Hai's Sep 2026 revenue to be +21% YoY or +9% MoM
Hon Hai's monthly/quarterly revenue
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26E | Oct-26E | Nov-26E | Dec-26E | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$m) | 946,513 | 921,766 | 1,009,185 | 1,069,736 | 1,144,618 | 1,318,338 | 2,877,464 | 3,532,692 |
| YoY | 54% | 52% | 21% | 19% | 36% | 53% | 40% | 36% |
| MoM/QoQ | 15% | -3% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 15% | 14% | 23% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 928,592 | 1,050,629 | ||||||
| Actual vs. GS | 2% | -12% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: Earnings revision
| NTD m | Old | New 2026E | Chg | Old | New 2027E | Chg | Old | New 2028E | Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 11,049,023 | 11,055,583 | 0% | 14,028,433 | 14,028,433 | 0% | 18,122,500 | 18,122,500 | 0% |
| GP | 655,343 | 655,180 | 0% | 740,692 | 740,692 | 0% | 820,946 | 820,946 | 0% |
| OP | 379,038 | 378,710 | 0% | 413,913 | 413,913 | 0% | 468,463 | 468,463 | 0% |
| Net income | 272,249 | 271,986 | 0% | 317,185 | 316,363 | 0% | 356,795 | 356,620 | 0% |
| EPS (diluted, NT$) | 19.23 | 19.21 | 0% | 22.42 | 22.36 | 0% | 25.13 | 25.20 | 0% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | |||
| OPM | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | |||
| NM | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Exhibit 5: Hon Hai P&L Summary
| Hon Hai (2317.TW) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTD bn | |||||||||||||||
| P&L | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 6,627 | 6,162 | 6,860 | 8,103 | 11,056 | 14,028 | 18,122 | 1,644 | 1,793 | 2,059 | 2,606 | 2,120 | 2,526 | 2,877 | 3,533 |
| COGS | (6,227) | (5,774) | (6,431) | (7,605) | (10,400) | (13,288) | (17,302) | (1,544) | (1,680) | (1,928) | (2,453) | (1,989) | (2,371) | (2,708) | (3,333) |
| Gross profit | 400 | 388 | 429 | 498 | 655 | 741 | 821 | 101 | 114 | 131 | 153 | 131 | 155 | 170 | 200 |
| Operating expense | (226) | (221) | (228) | (239) | (276) | (327) | (352) | (54) | (57) | (60) | (68) | (55) | (60) | (72) | (89) |
| EBITDA | 250 | 251 | 288 | 347 | 480 | 536 | 593 | 70 | 80 | 95 | 111 | 102 | 125 | 118 | 135 |
| D&A | (76) | (84) | (88) | (88) | (102) | (122) | (124) | (24) | (23) | (25) | (26) | (27) | (30) | (21) | (23) |
| EBIT | 174 | 167 | 201 | 259 | 379 | 414 | 468 | 46 | 57 | 71 | 86 | 76 | 95 | 97 | 111 |
| Net interest income/(expense) | 9 | 16 | 9 | (7) | (4) | 11 | 11 | 1 | (1) | (3) | (4) | (3) | (4) | 1 | 3 |
| Disposal of assets (pre-tax) | 4 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Others | 1 | (5) | 1 | 34 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Pretax profit | 188 | 192 | 212 | 293 | 392 | 441 | 492 | 59 | 65 | 87 | 82 | 74 | 95 | 103 | 119 |
| Income tax | (36) | (37) | (40) | (78) | (86) | (93) | (103) | (13) | (16) | (21) | (29) | (17) | (25) | (21) | (24) |
| Minorities | (10) | (13) | (19) | (26) | (33) | (32) | (32) | (4) | (5) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (10) | (8) | (8) |
| Net income | 141 | 142 | 153 | 189 | 272 | 316 | 357 | 42 | 44 | 58 | 45 | 50 | 60 | 75 | 88 |
| EPS (NTD) | 10.04 | 10.07 | 10.79 | 13.43 | 19.21 | 22.36 | 25.20 | 2.98 | 3.16 | 4.08 | 3.20 | 3.52 | 4.24 | 5.27 | 6.19 |
| DPS (NTD) | 5.22 | 5.31 | 5.70 | 7.15 | 10.22 | 11.90 | 13.41 | ||||||||
| Dividend payout ratio | 52% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% | ||||||||
| YoY% growth & margins | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue growth | 11% | -7% | 11% | 18% | 36% | 27% | 29% | 24% | 16% | 11% | 22% | 29% | 41% | 40% | 36% |
| EBITDA growth | 11% | 0% | 15% | 20% | 38% | 12% | 11% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 22% | 46% | 56% | 24% | 21% |
| EBIT growth | 17% | -4% | 20% | 29% | 46% | 9% | 13% | 27% | 27% | 29% | 33% | 63% | 68% | 38% | 30% |
| Net income growth | 2% | 0% | 7% | 24% | 44% | 16% | 13% | 91% | 27% | 17% | -2% | 19% | 35% | 29% | 94% |
| EPS growth | 1% | 0% | 7% | 24% | 43% | 16% | 13% | 90% | 26% | 16% | 0% | 18% | 34% | 29% | 93% |
| Gross margin | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% |
| EBITDA margin | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| EBIT margin | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: Our 12m TP for Hon Hai is unchanged at NT$400 and we continue to derive it through near term PE. Our target 2027E P/E multiple of 17.9x (vs. 17.8x of our previous TP implied 2027E P/E) is derived from peers' average ratio of trading P/E to forward year NI YoY growth and OPM (P/E divided by the sum of NI YoY and OPM). Our target P/E of 17.9x is in the range of the company's historical forward P/E since 2010, reflecting our positive view on Hon Hai's business expansion from the competitive consumer electronics market to AI servers and EVs outsourcing, which should drive profit expansion with diversifying business opportunities for Hon Hai. Maintain Buy (on CL).
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Hon Hai
Valuation methodology: We are Buy rated on Hon Hai. Our 12-month target price of NT$400 is based on an 17.9x 2027E P/E multiple, which is set in line with peers' PEG&M ratio (i.e., P/E vs. forward-year earnings growth and OPM).
Key downside risks: (1) slower-than-expected ramp-up of the AI server business; (2)
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weaker-than-expected EV total solution performance across EV assembly, design, software, and semis; (3) slower-than-expected ramp-up of capacity globally; and (4) fiercer-than-expected competition in the consumer electronics EMS business.
2317.TW
12m Price Target: NT$400.00
Price: NT$250.50
Upside: 59.7%
| Buy CL | GS Forecast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap: NT$3.5tr / $111.9bn Enterprise value: NT$3.5tr / $111.0bn 3m ADTV: NT$11.1bn / $345.3mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) EPS (NT$) New EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) CROCI (%) EPS (NT$) | 12/25 8,103,104.8 8,103,104.8 347,220.9 13.41 13.41 13.9 1.5 3.8 14.3 6/26 4.24 | 12/26E 11,055,583.4 11,049,022.2 480,252.0 19.21 19.13 13.0 1.9 4.1 16.5 9/26E 5.27 | 12/27E 14,028,433.0 14,028,432.8 535,750.8 22.36 22.35 11.2 1.7 4.8 17.8 12/26E 6.19 | 12/28E 18,122,499.9 18,122,499.6 592,566.9 25.20 25.13 9.9 1.6 5.4 16.6 3/27E 4.77 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 24 Sep 2026 close.
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