PDF 原檔：報告_GS_英業達2356_20260827_original.pdf
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41KB | 真資料圖 | 折線圖，縱軸 x（本益比），橫軸 Jan-18～May-26，三條虛線標 +1stv. 21.0x／avg. 16.5x／-1stv. 11.9x |
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82KB | 真資料圖 | 「Inventec (2356.TW) Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history」股價與目標價歷史圖，2023–2026，目標價點位 56／52／63.9／69.1／60.3／45.7／49／48.6 等 |
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原始內容
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Inventec (2356.TW): AI server supporting growth ahead; Memory cost weighing on PC shipments; Jul Rev and 2Q26 beat; Neutral
Inventec's Jul revenue was up 66% YoY / down 12% MoM, or 32% higher than our estimate, which we attribute to the strong AI server end demand, while the MoM decline was mainly due to a decline in PC shipments, given the demand pull-in in 1H26. We expect sequential revenue decline in Aug-Sep, mainly on a decline in PC shipments from a consumption pull in amid rising memory costs. Meanwhile, growth momentum should recover in Oct-Dec, supported by AI server shipment ramp up. Overall, we expect the company to deliver double-digit YoY revenue growth in 3Q / 4Q26E, on rising AI server end demand and Inventec's capacity expansion. We remain positive on Inventec's AI server business expansion, while the rising memory cost would cap the PC shipments growth ahead. Maintain Neutral.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Yifan Hu
+852-2978-0996 | yifan.hu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 1: Inventec monthly revenue preview
| Jul-26 Aug-26 (E) | Jul-26 Aug-26 (E) | Sep-26 (E) | Oct-26 (E) | Nov-26 (E) | Dec-26 (E) | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 90,190 | 79,367 | 63,878 | 65,156 | 67,110 | 71,389 | 233,436 | 203,654 |
| YoY | 66% | 29% | 5% | 19% | 29% | 11% | 32% | 19% |
| MoM/QoQ | -12% | -12% | -20% | 2% | 3% | 6% | -13% | -13% |
| GS (NT$m) | 68,533 | |||||||
| Actual vs. GS | 32% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
2Q26 beat: Inventec's 2Q26 revenue was 10% / 14% higher than our estimate / Bloomberg consensus, which we attribute to the AI server shipments ramp up and PC demand pull-in. GM of 4.2% was lower than our estimate and Bloomberg consensus, re fl ecting the rising component cost weighing on the company's pro fi tability, such as PCB, memory, CPU, etc. 2Q26 opex ratio was better than our estimate and Bloomberg consensus, re fl ecting the company's improving operational e ffi ciency as revenue scales up, along with the higher than expected non-op income, leading 2Q26 net income 27% higher than our estimate and Bloomberg consensus.
Exhibit 2: Inventec 2Q26 result snapshot
| NT m | 2Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | QoQ | YoY | GS | Act / GS | Cons. | Act/Cons. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 186,577 | 200,311 | 269,857 | 35% | 45% | 244,598 | 10% | 236,739 | 14% |
| GP | 9,503 | 10,177 | 11,416 | 12% | 20% | 14,001 | -18% | 11,974 | -5% |
| OP | 3,635 | 3,615 | 4,741 | 31% | 30% | 4,461 | 6% | 4,294 | 10% |
| Net income | 2,190 | 2,428 | 3,895 | 60% | 78% | 3,070 | 27% | 3,074 | 27% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | ||||
| OPM | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | ||||
| NM | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in Inventec's Jul revenue and 2Q26 result and slightly cut our 2026-28E net income by 5% / 6% / 1%, mainly on lower GM estimates. Our 2026-28E revenues are revised up to re fl ect the company's strong AI server business growth, riding on the growing AI infrastructure trend globally and enjoying a product mix upgrade towards AI servers with stronger performance and higher ASP. We cut our 2026-28E GMs to re fl ect the 2Q26 GM miss and the impact of rising component costs. 2026-28E opex ratios are revised down, mainly on higher operational e ffi ciency as AI server shipments grow. We raise our interest expenses in 2026-28E to re fl ect Inventec's debt level increase, supporting the company's global capacity expansion and rising working capital level.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTm | Old | New | Chg | Old | New | Chg | Old | New | Chg |
| Revenue | 820,072 | 907,258 | 11% | 913,119 | 1,009,830 | 11% | 956,324 | 1,068,046 | 12% |
| GP | 44,975 | 41,119 | -9% | 51,615 | 48,800 | -5% | 54,218 | 54,277 | 0% |
| OP | 16,681 | 15,207 | -9% | 20,843 | 21,030 | 1% | 22,659 | 23,090 | 2% |
| Net income | 11,358 | 10,769 | -5% | 14,744 | 13,833 | -6% | 16,247 | 16,045 | -1% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | |||
| OPM | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | |||
| NM | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to use near-term P/E to derive our 12M TP, and our target P/E is updated to 14.6x 2027E P/E (vs. 13.6x previously), mainly on higher earnings growth in 2027-28E, still derived from PC/server peers' correlation between forward year trading P/E and earnings growth. With our updated target P/E and earnings estimates, our 12M
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TP is unchanged at NT$56. Maintain Neutral.
Exhibit 4: Inventec: Correlation of earnings growth and P/E of its local and global peers
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 6: Inventec's QFII
Source: TEJ
Exhibit 7: Inventec P&L summary
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 157,034 | 186,577 | 176,286 | 171,293 | 200,311 | 269,857 | 233,436 | 203,654 | 646,262 | 691,190 | 907,258 | 1,009,830 | 1,068,046 |
| Gross profit | 9,413 | 9,503 | 8,876 | 8,923 | 10,177 | 11,416 | 10,373 | 9,153 | 33,337 | 36,715 | 41,119 | 48,800 | 54,277 |
| Operating income | 3,473 | 3,635 | 3,067 | 2,538 | 3,615 | 4,741 | 3,604 | 3,247 | 11,817 | 12,713 | 15,207 | 21,030 | 23,090 |
| Net income | 1,703 | 2,190 | 2,729 | 2,073 | 2,428 | 3,895 | 2,369 | 2,077 | 7,267 | 8,696 | 10,769 | 13,833 | 16,045 |
| EPS, diluted (NTD) | 0.47 | 0.61 | 0.76 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 1.08 | 0.66 | 0.58 | 2.02 | 2.41 | 2.99 | 3.85 | 4.47 |
| Margins / ratio | |||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% |
| Opex ratio | -3.8% | -3.1% | -3.3% | -3.7% | -3.3% | -2.5% | -2.9% | -2.9% | -3.3% | -3.5% | -2.9% | -2.8% | -2.9% |
| Operating margin | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| Net margin | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | -21% | 19% | -6% | -3% | 17% | 35% | -13% | -13% | |||||
| Gross profit | -7% | 1% | -7% | 1% | 14% | 12% | -9% | -12% | |||||
| Operating income | -11% | 5% | -16% | -17% | 42% | 31% | -24% | -10% | |||||
| Net income | -28% | 29% | 25% | -24% | 17% | 60% | -39% | -12% | |||||
| EPS, diluted | -28% | 29% | 25% | -24% | 17% | 61% | -39% | -12% | |||||
| YoY | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 20% | 21% | 8% | -13% | 28% | 45% | 32% | 19% | 26% | 7% | 31% | 11% | 6% |
| Gross profit | 37% | 23% | 3% | -11% | 8% | 20% | 17% | 3% | 27% | 10% | 12% | 19% | 11% |
| Operating income | 62% | 40% | -3% | -35% | 4% | 30% | 18% | 28% | 58% | 8% | 20% | 38% | 10% |
| Net income | 56% | 21% | 37% | -13% | 43% | 78% | -13% | 0% | 14% | 20% | 24% | 28% | 16% |
| EPS, diluted | 56% | 21% | 36% | -12% | 42% | 78% | -13% | 1% | 14% | 20% | 24% | 29% | 16% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 5: Inventec 12M forward P/E ratio
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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Price Target Risks and Methodology - Inventec
We are Neutral-rated on Inventec with a 12-month target price of NT$56.0 . Our target price is based on 14.6x 2027E P/E , which is derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's performance.
Key upside/downside risks : 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery; 2) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up; and 3) stronger-/weaker-than-expected demand for general servers.
| 2356.TW 12m Price | Target: NT$56.00 | Price: NT$66.80 | Price: NT$66.80 | Downside: 16.2% | Downside: 16.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast |
| Market c ap: NT$240.3bn / $ 7 . 5 bn E nterpr is e v a lu e: | Revenue (NT$m n ) N e w Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) E PS(NT$) N e w EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) | 12/25 6 9 1 , 1 90.3 691,190.3 17,216.1 2 .4 2 2.42 18.1 2.1 4.5 | 12/26E 90 7 , 257 . 7 820,072.0 19,409.7 3.00 3.17 22.3 3.1 3.7 | 12/27E 1 ,009, 82 9. 7 913,119.0 27,224.4 3. 86 4.11 17.3 3.0 4.8 | 12/28E 1 ,0 68 ,04 6 .3 956,324.0 29,803.6 4.4 7 4.53 14.9 2.9 5.5 |
| NT$2 89 .0bn / $ 9 . 1 bn | |||||
| 3 m AD T V : NT$3. 8 bn / $ 118 . 5m n | |||||
| Ta iw an | |||||
| G reater Chi na Te ch n ology | |||||
| M &A R ank: 3 | |||||
| L ea s e s i n cl . i n net d ebt & EV? : N o | |||||
| CROCI (%) 10.6 | 17.1 | 21.2 | 21.4 | ||
| 6/26 | 9 /26E | 12/26E | 3 /27E | ||
| EPS (NT$) 1.09 | 0.66 | 0.58 | 0.83 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 26 Aug 2026 close.
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