PDF 原檔：報告_GS_聯亞光電3081_20260813_original.pdf
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46KB | 真資料圖 | LandMark 12 個月遠期本益比走勢圖（2017-2026），2026 年初起大幅攀升至近 200x |
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77KB | 真資料圖 | Goldman Sachs 對 LandMark（3081.TWO）評等與目標價歷史圖（2023-2026），藍色方塊標示歷次目標價（434 逐步上調至 2081，圖表右側股價續揚），灰線為台灣加權指數；圖例標示 2025-02-13 起由 Allen Chang 覆蓋、之前為 NA／未覆蓋 |
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原始內容
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LandMark (3081.TWO): SiPh in strong growth; Capacity strong expansion through 2028; July & 2Q26 beat; TP up to NT$4,401; Buy
Landmark 2Q26 GM was better than expected at 57.5% (vs. 1Q26/ 2Q25 at 54.8%/ 43.3%), or higher than our and Bloomberg estimates by 2.6ppts/ 1.7ppts, and we attribute it to larger scale and better product mix. 2Q NI was up 384% YoY to NT$468m, beat our and Bloomberg estimates by 9%/ 21% on better margin and improving operational e ffi ciency. The data center revenues contribution reached 80%-85% in 2Q26 with SiPh (Silicon Photonics) as a major revenues contributor, and management expects to see continuous SiPh growth in 3Q26 and onwards, supported by the capacity expansion and strong clients' demand. Maintain Buy with 12m TP raised to NT$4,401.
Exhibit 1: Landmark 2Q26 result snapshot
| NT$m | 2Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | QoQ | YoY | GS | Act / GS | Cons. Act | / Cons. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 553 | 904 | 1,221 | 35% | 121% | 1,221 | 0% | 1,146 | 7% |
| GP | 240 | 495 | 702 | 42% | 193% | 670 | 5% | 639 | 10% |
| OP | 150 | 373 | 573 | 53% | 283% | 516 | 11% | ||
| Net income | 97 | 318 | 468 | 48% | 384% | 432 | 9% | 388 | 21% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 43.3% | 54.8% | 57.5% | 54.9% | 55.8% | ||||
| OPM | 27.0% | 41.3% | 46.9% | 42.2% | |||||
| NM | 17.5% | 35.1% | 38.4% | 35.3% | 33.9% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
SiPh capacity strong expansion through 2028E: Management targets capacity to grow at triple digit YoY growth in 2027/ 28E, riding on strong clients' AI demand, rising SiPh penetration, also company's capabilities to produce high-speed products. In mid June, Landmark announced the company has obtained equipment from Aixtron with total value at ~NT$837m, supporting its capacity expansion across InP Epi-Wafer and CW lasers.
3-month preview: Landmark Jul revenues were up 177% YoY/ 19% MoM to NT$501m, or 14% higher than our previous estimates, re fl ecting strong demand on 800G / 1.6T SiPh optical modules, better InP substrate supply, and Landmark's capacity expansion. Looking ahead, we expect company's Aug/ Sep revenues to grow at 173%/ 171% YoY to NT$506m/ NT$505m, supporting 3Q26E revenues to grow 174% YoY, or 24% QoQ to NT$1.5bn.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Ting Song +852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 2: We expect Landmark August 2026E revenues to grow 173% YoY to NT$506m Landmark monthly/ quarterly revenues
| May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026E | Sep 2026E | Oct 2026E | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$m) | 405 | 421 | 501 | 506 | 505 | 520 | 904 | 1,221 | 1,512 |
| YoY | 119% | 128% | 177% | 173% | 171% | 158% | 99% | 121% | 174% |
| MoM/QoQ | 3% | 4% | 19% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 41% | 35% | 24% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 361 | 416 | 442 | 875 | 1,123 | ||||
| Actual vs. GS | 12% | 1% | 14% | 3% | 9% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in Landmark 2Q26 result and revise up earnings by 4%/ 1%/ 1%/ 1% in 2026-29E mainly on higher revenues of SiPh CW lasers, supported by strong client demand and capacity expansion. We revise up GM by 0.2ppts to 0.7ppts in 2026-29E on improving product mix and larger scale.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | 2029E | 2029E | 2029E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT$m | Old | New | Diff% | Old | New | Diff% | Old | New | Diff% | Old | New | Diff% |
| Revenues | 5,047 | 5,152 | 2% | 9,370 | 9,470 | 1% | 14,719 | 14,796 | 1% | 22,078 | 22,205 | 1% |
| GP | 2,746 | 2,868 | 4% | 5,234 | 5,308 | 1% | 8,387 | 8,471 | 1% | 12,580 | 12,768 | 1% |
| OP | 2,043 | 2,191 | 7% | 4,370 | 4,444 | 2% | 7,211 | 7,296 | 1% | 10,839 | 11,036 | 2% |
| Pre-tax income | 2,138 | 2,253 | 5% | 4,467 | 4,499 | 1% | 7,342 | 7,385 | 1% | 10,970 | 11,125 | 1% |
| Net income | 1,710 | 1,803 | 5% | 3,573 | 3,599 | 1% | 5,873 | 5,908 | 1% | 8,776 | 8,900 | 1% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||
| GM | 54.4% | 55.7% | 1.3ppts | 55.9% | 56.1% | 0.2ppts | 57.0% | 57.3% | 0.3ppts | 57.0% | 57.5% | 0.5ppts |
| OPM | 40.5% | 42.5% | 2ppts | 46.6% | 46.9% | 0.3ppts | 49.0% | 49.3% | 0.3ppts | 49.1% | 49.7% | 0.6ppts |
| NM | 33.9% | 35.0% | 1.1ppts | 38.1% | 38.0% | -0.1ppts | 39.9% | 39.9% | 0ppts | 39.7% | 40.1% | 0.3ppts |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We employ a discounted P/E methodology (unchanged) and apply a 61.5x (vs. previously at 61.0x) target P/E multiple on our 2029E EPS, discounted back to 2027E, at a COE of 10.5% (beta 1.7x, risk free rate 1.6%, and market risk premium at 5.1% - unchanged). Our target P/E multiple of 61.5x (vs. previously at 61.0x) is derived from the PEG&M ratio of peers (unchanged) in the photonics supply chain, re fl ecting an industry re-rating of product mix upgrade and rising demand on optical solution. Consequently, our 12-month target price is now NT$4,401 (vs. previously at NT$4,307). The implied 2028E P/E at 76x is between company's avg. P/E at 56x and avg. +1 P/E at 82x. Maintain Buy.
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Exhibit 4: Landmark discounted P/E
Jan-18
| (NT$ mn) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | 2031E | 2032E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milestones | 5G infrastructure cycle | 5G infrastructure cycle | 5G infrastructure cycle | SiPh in AI data center | SiPh in AI data center | SiPh in AI data center | CPO | CPO | CPO | CPO | CPO |
| SiPh Rev contribution | 13% | 35% | 42% | 70% | 88% | 93% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| Revenue | 2,381 | 1,056 | 1,208 | 2,203 | 5,152 | 9,470 | 14,796 | 33,101 | 46,341 | ||
| YoY | 27% | -56% | 14% | 82% | 134% | 84% | 22,205 | 49% | 40% | 63,951 38% | |
| Gross | 759 | 138 | 239 | 941 | 2,868 | 56% | 50% | 19,033 | 26,646 | ||
| profit | 31.9% | 13.1% | 42.7% | 5,308 | 8,471 | 12,768 | 57.5% | 57.5% | 36,836 57.6% | ||
| Gross margin OPEX | 424 | 19.8% | 432 | 55.7% 678 | 56.1% | 57.3% | 57.5% | 2,549 | 3,476 | 4,604 | |
| 418 | 351 | 864 | 1,175 | 1,732 | 47% | 36% | 32% | ||||
| YoY | 19% | -1% | -16% | 23% | 57% 13.2% | 27% | 36% | 47% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Opex ratio | 17.8% 335 | 39.6% -280 | 29.0% -112 | 19.6% 508 | 2,191 | 9.1% | 7.9% 7,296 | 7.8% 11,036 | 16,484 | 23,171 | 32,231 |
| Operating profit YoY | -18% | -184% | -60% | -555% | 331% | 4,444 103% | 64% | 51% | 49% | 41% | 39% |
| Operating margin | 14% | -27% | -9% | 23% | 43% | 47% | 49% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Pre-tax profit | 378 | -264 | -68 | 525 | 2,253 | 4,499 | 7,385 | 11,125 | 16,573 | 23,259 | 32,320 |
| Net profit | 330 | -212 | 411 | 1,803 | 5,908 | 8,900 | 13,258 | 18,608 | 25,856 | ||
| -55 | 3,599 | 254.12 | |||||||||
| EPS (NT$, diluted) | 3.26 | -2.10 | -0.54 | 4.21 | 17.72 | 35.38 | 58.06 | 87.47 | 130.31 | 182.88 | |
| YoY | -2% | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 338% | 100% | 64% | 51% | 49% | 40% | 39% |
| TP implied P/E | 248 | 124 | 76 | 50 | 34 | 24 | 17 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 5: Landmark 12M forward P/E
Source: Eikon Datastream
Exhibit 6: The target P/E is derived from peers correlation between P/E to sum of NI YoY and OPM
| Valuatoin | 2029E P/E | 2030 NI YoY | 2030 OPM | PEG&M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landmark | 61.5 | 49% | 50% | 0.62 |
| Peers | 2026E P/E | 2027 NI YoY | 2027 OPM | PEG&M |
| Mitac | 11.0 | 16% | 5% | 0.5 |
| HG Tech | 34.0 | 31% | 14% | 0.8 |
| Shennan | 35.0 | 47% | 19% | 0.5 |
| Avg. | 34.4 | 32% | 25% | 0.62 |
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Exhibit 7: Landmark P&L Summary
| NT$ mn | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 1,056 | 1,208 | 2,203 | 5,152 | 9,470 | 14,796 | 455 | 553 | 553 | 642 | 904 | 1,221 | 1,512 | 1,514 |
| Gross profit | 138 | 239 | 941 | 2,868 | 5,308 | 8,471 | 147 | 240 | 241 | 313 | 495 | 702 | 835 | 837 |
| OP income | (280) | (112) | 508 | 2,191 | 4,444 | 7,296 | 45 | 150 | 105 | 209 | 373 | 573 | 590 | 654 |
| Pretax income | (264) | (68) | 525 | 2,253 | 4,499 | 7,385 | 53 | 121 | 124 | 227 | 397 | 586 | 603 | 667 |
| Net income | (212) | (55) | 411 | 1,803 | 3,599 | 5,908 | 42 | 97 | 99 | 190 | 318 | 468 | 483 | 534 |
| EPS (NT$) | (2.10) | (0.54) | 4.21 | 17.72 | 35.38 | 58.06 | 0.42 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 1.87 | 3.12 | 4.60 | 4.74 | 5.25 |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 13.1% | 19.8% | 42.7% | 55.7% | 56.1% | 57.3% | 32.3% | 43.3% | 43.6% | 48.7% | 54.8% | 57.5% | 55.2% | 55.3% |
| Operating margin | -26.5% | -9.3% | 23.1% | 42.5% | 46.9% | 49.3% | 9.8% | 27.0% | 19.0% | 32.5% | 41.3% | 46.9% | 39.0% | 43.2% |
| Net margin | -20.0% | -4.5% | 18.7% | 35.0% | 38.0% | 39.9% | 9.3% | 17.5% | 17.9% | 29.6% | 35.1% | 38.4% | 31.9% | 35.3% |
| YoY | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | -56% | 14% | 82% | 134% | 84% | 56% | 40% | 103% | 71% | 122% | 99% | 121% | 174% | 136% |
| Gross profit | -82% | 73% | 294% | 205% | 85% | 60% | 638% | 503% | 171% | 247% | 237% | 193% | 246% | 168% |
| OP income | na | na | na | 331% | 103% | 64% | 18% | na | 1176% | na | 734% | 283% | 463% | 213% |
| Net income | na | na | na | 338% | 100% | 64% | 20% | na | 1139% | 2233% | 651% | 384% | 388% | 181% |
| QoQ | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 57% | 22% | 0% | 16% | 41% | 35% | 24% | 0% | ||||||
| Gross profit | 63% | 63% | 1% | 30% | 58% | 42% | 19% | 0% | ||||||
| OP income | -849% | 234% | -30% | 99% | 79% | 53% | 3% | 11% | ||||||
| Net income | 418% | 129% | 2% | 92% | 67% | 48% | 3% | 11% | ||||||
| EBITDA | 55% | 81% | -21% | 69% | 52% | 43% | 3% | 9% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - LandMark Optoelectronics Corp.
Valuation: We employ a discounted P/E methodology, applying a 61.5x target P/E multiple on our 2029E EPS, then discount it back to 2027E at a COE of 10.5% (beta 1.7x, risk free rate 1.6% and market risk premium at 5.1%), to derive our 12-month target price of NT$4,401. Our target P/E multiple is based on the same PEG&M ratio as peers in the photonics supply chain. We are Buy-rated on LandMark.
Key risk: Slower-than-expected SiPh penetration; stronger-than-expected competition; Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs) o ff ering Epitaxial (EPI) wafers in-house.
| 3081.TWO | 12m Price Target: NT$4,401.00 | 12m Price Target: NT$4,401.00 | Price: NT$2,725.00 | Upside: | 61.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | Buy | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast |
| Revenue (NT $m n ) Ne w Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) E PS (NT $) Ne w | 12/25 | 12/26E 12/27E 9,4 7 0.3 | 12/28E | |||
| Market c ap: NT$264.8 bn / $8.2 bn En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$262.8 bn / $8. 1bn 3m AD T V : NT$ 5 .8 bn / $ 1 8 1 . 3mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology | 2 , 2 0 2 . 8 | 5 , 151 . 6 | 1 4, 7 9 6 . 5 | |||
| 2,202.8 | 5,047.0 | 9,364.7 | 14,713.3 | |||
| 842.9 | 2,558.0 | 4,835.8 | 7,708.2 | |||
| 4. 21 | 17 . 72 | 3 5 .3 8 | 58 .0 6 | |||
| EPS (NT$) Old | 4.21 | 17.06 | 35.10 | 57.71 | ||
| P/E (X) | 85.8 | 153.8 | 77.0 | 46.9 | ||
| M &A R a n k: 3 | P/B (X) | 9.1 | 65.3 | 55.8 | 45.0 | |
| L ea s e s incl . in n et d e b t & EV? : N o | Dividend yield (%) | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | |
| CROCI (%) | 10.8 | 32.2 | 62.1 | 107.8 | ||
| 6/26 | 9 /26E | 12/26E | 3 /27E | |||
| EPS (NT$) | 4.60 | 4.74 | 5.25 | 7.55 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 12 Aug 2026 close.
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