PDF 原檔：報告_GS_緯創3231_20260811_original.pdf
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40KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：緯創月營收長條圖＋YoY 折線（2025-26 Monthly Revenues），Jan-25 至 Jul-26 為實際柱狀，Aug-26(E)~Oct-26(E) 三月為淺色預估柱，YoY 折線最高點約 300%附近（Nov-25 前後） |
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42KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 6：緯創 12m forward P/E 走勢圖（Jan-16 至 Jun-26），標示 +1stv 15.7x／avg. 11.9x／-1stv 8.1x 三條水平虛線，2024 年後 P/E 明顯墊高至 15-22x 區間 |
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40KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 8：緯創 QFII 持股比例走勢圖（Source: TEJ），Jan-16 至近期，標示波峰 58%（約 2020）、波谷 22%（約 2024）、最新約 34% |
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87KB | 真資料圖 | Wistron（3231.TW）GS 評等與目標價歷史圖：藍色方塊標示歷次目標價數字（如 144、152、188、214、218、249、246 等），灰線為 Taiwan SE Weighted Index，Oct 3 後評等區間標示 B（Buy），來源標註 as of Jun 28, 2024 |
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原始內容
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Wistron (3231.TW): July and 2Q26 beat; AI server rack in a strong ramp-up with customer expansion and speci fi cation upgrades; Buy
Wistron's July revenue was up 61% YoY to NT$308bn, or 30% higher than our estimate, re fl ecting strong AI server rack demand from neo-cloud and enterprises, o ff setting the impact of the model transition. We expect sequential revenue growth ahead through Dec 2026, driven by new GPU AI server racks entering mass production in 4Q26, which will drive up the ASP, along with strong AI spending and the expansion of company's customer base. The new GPU AI server racks have various racks across GPU, CPU, and LPU, supporting ODM growth in coming quarters. On PC, the company's July shipments were at 1.6m units (-20% MoM / YoY), re fl ecting modest demand under high memory costs. Despite PC shipments likely being negative HoH considering the strong pull-in since late 2025, we expect the strong AI server rack ramp-up to o ff set the impact, driving 2H26 revenue up +28% HoH. Maintain Buy with TP raised to NT$281 (13.1x 2027E PE vs. 29% NI YoY in 2027-28E).
We remain positive on Wistron's AI servers, driven by (1) rack-level AI server migration towards next-generation models with higher ASP, (2) major customers' positive guidance on continuous AI spending, (3) client base expansion towards new enterprise and CSP clients, and (4) Wistron's global capacity expansion to better capture the strong demand. Wistron announced new AI server capacity expansion plans in Taiwan, US, and Vietnam, supported by the company's new global depository receipts issuance. Overall, we expect that the strong earnings growth ahead, driven by AI, could well cover the dilution and capex / R&D investments.
Exhibit 1: Wistron monthly revenues
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Yifan Hu
+852-2978-0996 | yifan.hu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 2: Wistron 3-month revenue preview
| 26-Jul | Aug-26 (E) | Sep-26 (E) | Oct-26 (E) | Nov-26 (E) | Dec-26 (E) | 3Q26 (E) | 4Q26 (E) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 308,219 | 311,301 | 314,144 | 361,266 | 422,681 | 518,740 | 933,665 | 1,302,688 |
| Rev YoY | 61% | 80% | 54% | 95% | 51% | 103% | 64% | 81% |
| RevMoM/QoQ | -4% | 1% | 1% | 15% | 17% | 23% | 4% | 40% |
| GS estimates | 237,902 | |||||||
| Act. Vs. GS | 30% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
2Q26 beat: Wistron's 2Q26 revenue is 6% higher than our estimate, and its GM of 5.7% is higher than our estimate (5.4%) and the Bloomberg consensus (5.5%), which we attribute to Wistron's enhanced production e ffi ciency in AI server racks and Wiwynn's business model switch from 'buy & sell' to consignment for general servers. 2Q26 opex ratio is largely in line with our estimate, along with the higher than expected non-op income, mainly on FX gain, leading 2Q26 net income 26% / 31% higher than our estimate / Bloomberg consensus.
Exhibit 3: Wistron's 2Q26 result snapshot
| NT m | 2Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | QoQ | YoY | GS | Act / GS | Cons. | Act/Cons. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 551,291 | 846,303 | 895,443 | 6% | 62% | 847,071 | 6% | 873,954 | 2% |
| GP | 24,453 | 44,094 | 50,664 | 15% | 107% | 45,901 | 10% | 48,216 | 5% |
| OP | 10,787 | 29,137 | 33,447 | 15% | 210% | 30,931 | 8% | 30,767 | 9% |
| Net income | 6,504 | 9,631 | 14,827 | 54% | 128% | 11,789 | 26% | 11,292 | 31% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | ||||
| OPM | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | ||||
| NM | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Earnings revision: We factor in Wistron's Jul revenue and 2Q26 result and raise our 2026-28E net incomes by 5% / 16% / 14%, mainly on higher revenue. Our 2026-28E revenue is revised up by 21% / 37% / 39%, mainly on higher rack-level AI server shipments and higher ASP of next-generation AI server, re fl ecting the company's client base and global capacity expansion. Our 2026-28E GMs are revised down, as rack-level AI server business usually carries a lower GM than other product lines. Our 2026-28E opex ratios are largely unchanged.
Exhibit 4: Earnings revision
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT m | Old | New | Chg | Old | New | Chg | Old | New | Chg |
| Revenue | 3,291,847 | 3,978,099 | 21% | 4,285,249 | 5,877,711 | 37% | 4,989,536 | 6,912,921 | 39% |
| GP | 196,001 | 213,484 | 9% | 260,686 | 311,688 | 20% | 305,540 | 379,867 | 24% |
| OP | 134,761 | 136,383 | 1% | 177,124 | 199,975 | 13% | 203,255 | 238,152 | 17% |
| Net income | 49,880 | 52,350 | 5% | 63,536 | 73,751 | 16% | 75,483 | 85,687 | 14% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | |||
| OPM | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | |||
| NM | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to use near-term P/E to derive our 12M TP. Our target multiple is updated to 13.1x 2027E EPS (vs. 13.2x previously), which is derived from the refreshed peers' correlation between forward trading P/E and earnings growth. With our updated earnings estimates and target multiple, our 12M TP is raised to NT$281 (vs. NT$246 previously). Our target P/E is still between the company's historical avg. and avg.+1stv. trading P/E, re fl ecting our positive view on Wistron's market leading position in AI server ODM. Maintain Buy.
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Exhibit 5: Wistron's revenue and GM trends
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 7: Wistron peers' 2027E P/E vs. 2027-28E avg. EPS YoY
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 6: Wistron 12m forward P/E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 8: Wistron's QFII
Source: TEJ
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Wistron
Our 12-month target price of NT$281 is based on a 13.1x 2027E P/E, which is derived from PC/server peer EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's share price performance.
Key downside risks: 1) weaker-than-expected PC market recovery, 2) slower-than-expected AI server demand ramp-up, and 3) weaker-than-expected demand on general servers.
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3231.TW
12m Price Target:
NT$281.00
Price:
NT$193.00
Upside: 45.6%
| Buy | GS Forecast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market c ap: NT$657.9 bn / $ 20 . 4bn En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$ 1 . 1 tr / $ 3 5. 1bn 3m AD T V : NT$ 11 .9 bn / $ 3 7 3 .5 mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d e b t & EV? Y e s | Revenue ( NT$m n ) N e w Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) E PS ( NT$) N e w EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) | 1 2 / 2 5 | 1 2 / 2 6E 3,9 78 ,099.0 3,291,846.9 150,161.8 | 1 2 / 2 7E 5 , 877 , 711 . 1 217,156.4 23.4 5 20.21 8.2 2.9 7.2 6.6 | 1 2 / 2 8E 6 ,9 1 2,920.9 4,989,536.2 261,628.1 2 7 .2 5 24.01 7.1 2.6 8.3 7.6 |
| 2, 186 , 5 22. 6 2,186,522.6 91,491.4 | 16 . 65 15.86 11.6 | ||||
| 4,285,248.6 | |||||
| 9. 1 0 | |||||
| 9.10 | |||||
| 13.2 | |||||
| 2.2 | 3.3 | ||||
| : | 4.5 | 5.1 | |||
| CROCI (%) | 32.5 | 8.6 | |||
| EPS (NT$) | 6/ 2 6 | 9 / 2 6E | 1 2 / 2 6E | 3 / 2 7E | |
| 4.72 | 3.88 | 4.99 | 4.63 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 10 Aug 2026 close.
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