PDF 原檔：報告_GS_技嘉2376_20260925_original.pdf
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75KB | 真資料圖 | 「Gigabyte (2376.TW)」Goldman Sachs 評等與目標價沿革圖（2023/7-2026/6）：目標價標籤 356、345、348、393、474、453、429、450、408、449、410、411、407、365、324、315、310、344、390、389、334、300、299、487；評等於 2024/10/3 由 NA 轉 B、2026/1/22 轉 N（沿革圖，公司頁不嵌） |
原始內容
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Gigabyte (2376.TW): AI server racks ramp up to drive 2H26 growth; Capex commitments remain strong; Aug in line; Neutral
3-month revenues preview: We expect sequential revenue growth in Sep-Dec, driven by the rising AI server racks, and higher ASP, leading our 3Q26 / 4Q26 revenues YoY to accelerate to 81% / 79% YoY (vs. 60% / 41% YoY in 1Q26 / 2Q26). The stronger growth in 2H26 would be driven by ongoing AI spending, customers' faster AI deployment, and Gigabyte's expanding customer base and enhancing backlog visibility. Customers' infrastructure readiness and components procurement to continue to improve in 2H26, supporting the procurement on AI servers. The company maintains strong capex commitment and we expect 2H26 capex to stay at a similar high level vs. 1H26, leading 2026 capex to grow at 143% YoY to NT$2.8bn to capture the strong AI servers demand, and customers' requirement on diversifying production sites (e.g. Gigabyte is across Taiwan, US, Europe, and Southeast Asia).
Exhibit 1: Gigabyte monthly revenues
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 2: We expect Gigabyte Sep/Oct revenues to grow 87%/ 87% YoY to NT$52bn/ NT$52bn
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26(E) | Oct-26(E) | Nov-26(E) | Dec-26(E) | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 44,213 | 47,401 | 52,351 | 52,874 | 53,403 | 54,085 | 144,214 | 143,965 | 160,362 |
| Rev YoY | 60% | 98% | 87% | 87% | 74% | 78% | 41% | 81% | 79% |
| Rev MoM / QoQ | 3% | 7% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 37% | 0% | 11% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 37,439 | 47,750 | 128,540 | ||||||
| Act vs. GS | 18% | -1% | 12% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in Gigabyte's Aug revenue and raise our 2026-28E net income by 2% / 6% / 8%, mainly on higher revenues. Our 2026-28E revenues are revised up by 3% / 3% / 4%, mainly on more AI servers and higher AI server racks' ASP, considering the migration towards next-generation AI server with stronger
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Yifan Hu
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
+852-2978-0996 | yifan.hu@gs.com e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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computing power and more complex design. Our GM, OPM and NM are largely the same.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| NT m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Chg | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Chg | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 537,098 | 553,599 | 3% | 705,439 | 728,252 | 3% | 860,801 | 891,025 | 4% |
| GP | 52,840 | 54,325 | 3% | 64,389 | 66,328 | 3% | 75,950 | 78,488 | 3% |
| OP | 27,380 | 28,031 | 2% | 32,997 | 33,921 | 3% | 38,936 | 40,174 | 3% |
| Net income | 20,661 | 21,165 | 2% | 24,257 | 25,779 | 6% | 27,731 | 29,988 | 8% |
| EPS (Diluted,NT$) | 28.19 | 28.47 | 1% | 33.10 | 34.52 | 4% | 37.84 | 40.15 | 6% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 9.8% | 9.8% | 0ppts | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0ppts | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0ppts |
| OPM | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0ppts | 4.7% | 4.7% | 0ppts | 4.5% | 4.5% | 0ppts |
| NM | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0ppts | 3.4% | 3.5% | +0.1ppts | 3.2% | 3.4% | +0.1ppts |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: Gigabyte P&L Summary
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 65,747 | 102,258 | 79,581 | 89,350 | 105,057 | 144,214 | 143,965 | 160,362 | 136,773 | 265,149 | 336,937 | 553,599 | 728,252 | 891,025 |
| Gross profit | 8,480 | 9,633 | 7,883 | 9,189 | 12,615 | 13,873 | 13,288 | 14,549 | 16,575 | 28,092 | 35,185 | 54,325 | 66,328 | 78,488 |
| Operating income | 4,240 | 5,293 | 3,437 | 3,803 | 7,414 | 8,120 | 6,047 | 6,450 | 4,895 | 12,777 | 16,772 | 28,031 | 33,921 | 40,174 |
| Net income | 3,116 | 3,050 | 3,056 | 2,969 | 5,268 | 6,606 | 4,487 | 4,803 | 4,743 | 9,789 | 12,190 | 21,165 | 25,779 | 29,988 |
| EPS (NT$) | 4.65 | 4.55 | 4.56 | 4.43 | 7.86 | 9.86 | 6.70 | 7.17 | 7.46 | 15.16 | 18.20 | 31.59 | 38.48 | 44.77 |
| Margins / ratio | ||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 12.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% |
| Operating margin | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% |
| Net margin | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| QoQ | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 0% | 56% | -22% | 12% | 18% | 37% | 0% | 11% | ||||||
| Gross profit | 28% | 14% | -18% | 17% | 37% | 10% | -4% | 9% | ||||||
| Operating income | 72% | 25% | -35% | 11% | 95% | 10% | -26% | 7% | ||||||
| Net income | 8% | -2% | 0% | -3% | 77% | 25% | -32% | 7% | ||||||
| EPS | 5% | -2% | 0% | -3% | 77% | 25% | -32% | 7% | ||||||
| YoY | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 19% | 38% | 13% | 36% | 60% | 41% | 81% | 79% | 28% | 94% | 27% | 64% | 32% | 22% |
| Gross profit | 36% | 21% | 9% | 38% | 49% | 44% | 69% | 58% | 0% | 69% | 25% | 54% | 22% | 18% |
| Operating income | 38% | 37% | 2% | 54% | 75% | 53% | 76% | 70% | -16% | 161% | 31% | 67% | 21% | 18% |
| Net income | 54% | 3% | 59% | 3% | 69% | 117% | 47% | 62% | -27% | 106% | 25% | 74% | 22% | 16% |
| EPS | 46% | -2% | 57% | 0% | 69% | 117% | 47% | 62% | -28% | 103% | 20% | 74% | 22% | 16% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to use near-term P/E to derive our 12M TP. Our 2027E target P/E is updated to 14.1x (vs. previously at 14.7x), still derived from correlation of peers' forward year P/E to avg. EPS YoY (methodology unchanged). With our updated target P/E and earnings estimates, our 12M TP is unchanged at NT$487. The target P/E of 14.1x is within the company's historical avg. and avg.-1std forward trading P/E. Maintain Neutral.
Exhibit 5: The target P/E is derived from correlation of peers' 2027 trading P/E and 2027-28 NI YoY growth
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Exhibit 7: Gigabyte QFII holdings
Exhibit 8: Gigabyte NI and OPM
Source: TEJ
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Gigabyte
We are Neutral rated on Gigabyte with a 12-month target price of NT$487. Our TP is based on a 14.1x 2027E P/E which is based on PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's share performance.
Key upside/downside risks include: 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery, 2) faster-/slower-than-expected gaming PC growth, and 3) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up.
| 2376.TW | 12m Price Target: NT$487.00 | Price: NT$361.50 | Upside: 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | GS Forecast | ||||
| Market cap: NT$270.0bn / $8.5bn Enterprise value: NT$337.5bn / $10.6bn 3m ADTV: NT$2.4bn / $74.7mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) EPS (NT$) New EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) CROCI (%) | 12/25 17,673.7 18.20 18.20 14.5 3.3 4.2 23.7 | 12/26E 553,598.7 537,098.3 29,081.8 31.59 30.84 11.4 4.0 5.2 23.6 | 12/27E 728,252.0 705,439.2 35,000.2 38.48 36.20 9.4 3.6 6.3 17.9 | 12/28E 891,025.1 860,800.6 41,580.0 44.77 41.39 8.1 3.2 7.3 18.7 |
| EPS (NT$) | 336,936.7 336,936.7 6/26 9.86 | 9/26E 6.70 | 12/26E 7.17 | 3/27E 7.16 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 24 Sep 2026 close.
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