PDF 原檔：報告_GS_啟碁6285_20261016_original.pdf
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67KB | 真資料圖（股價／評等歷史，財務類不嵌） | WNC (6285.TW) 高盛評等與目標價歷史圖：2023–2026 年股價與 Taiwan SE Weighted Index 走勢，標示歷次目標價（151、149、170、193、180、182、172、163、187、214、245、318、364、371）；評等欄 2024-08-22 起覆蓋，由 NA 轉 B |
原始內容
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WNC (6285.TW): OCS and high-speed switch in expansion; Sep revenues
+64% YoY; Buy
WNC's Sep revenues continued to deliver strong growth at 64% YoY (or 2% MoM), supported by the ramp up of LEO satellites, WiFi-7 upgrade, and auto connectivity business, or 6% below our previous estimates. The company's 3Q26 revenues were up 86% YoY/ 23% MoM to NT$48.7bn, and we expect Oct/ Nov revenues to grow 66%/ 77% YoY to NT$15.8bn/ NT$14.7bn, while MoM decline on the seasonality. The company demonstrated the OCS (Optical Circuit Switching) and 1.6TbE switch during the OCP summit 2026, and we are positive on company's expansion towards high-speed products with capabilities to offer total solution. We remain constructive on WNC due to (1) LEO user terminal riding on satellite clients' expansion, (2) wireless specification upgrade, and (3) rising spending on the AI infrastructure. Maintain Buy.
1.6T switch and OCS products in expansion: The company demonstrated its new products across the OCS, 800G optical transceiver, and 1.6TbE switch during the OCP summit 2026. The new switch enables the 102.4Tbps of switching capacity based on 64 units of 1.6TbE NPO ports, supporting the higher bandwidth needs of the AI clusters with lower power consumption. On OCS, the company highlights its high compatibility to support different generation of the Ethernet networks with lower deployment cost.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Ting Song
+852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 1: We expect WNC Oct revenues to grow 66% YoY/ -2% MoM to NT$15.8bn WNC monthly/ quarterly revenues
| July 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026E | Nov 2026E | Dec 2026E | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 16,913 | 15,704 | 16,079 | 15,758 | 14,655 | 12,640 | 39,438 | 48,696 | 43,053 |
| Rev YoY | 90% | 81% | 64% | 66% | 77% | 37% | 43% | 86% | 59% |
| Rev MoM/QoQ | 7% | -7% | 2% | -2% | -7% | -14% | 35% | 23% | -12% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 16,913 | 17,016 | 50,842 | ||||||
| Act vs. GS | -7% | -6% | -4% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in WNC 2Q26 result and revise up earnings by 1%/ 2%/ 2% in 2026-28E to reflect higher than expected revenues of WiFi 7/ WiFi 8 and switch products, driven by spec upgrade and rising client demand. We keep GM and Opex ratio largely unchanged.
Exhibit 2: Earnings revision
| NT$m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Diff % | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Diff % | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 159,545 | 160,344 | 1% | 170,752 | 174,133 | 2% | 190,000 | 192,992 | 2% |
| GP | 21,283 | 21,395 | 1% | 22,504 | 22,978 | 2% | 25,064 | 25,483 | 2% |
| OP | 7,613 | 7,658 | 1% | 7,991 | 8,177 | 2% | 10,063 | 10,247 | 2% |
| Net income | 6,231 | 6,267 | 1% | 6,372 | 6,521 | 2% | 8,102 | 8,246 | 2% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 13.2% | |||
| OPM | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | |||
| NM | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: With the earning estimate changes, we raise our 12M TP to NT$380.0 (vs. previously at NT$371, based on 28.0x 2027E P/E, unchanged). We continue to base our TP on 2027E P/E, and the target multiple is still derived from the correlation between P/E and EPS growth of its peers, which is higher as we mark to market. Our target P/E of 28.0x is higher than company's avg. +1 std P/E (16.3x), which we believe is not stretched considering the sustainable growth of WNC driven by long-term satellite and high speed networking demand. Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 3: WNC P&L Summary
| NT$ mn | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 110,788 | 110,213 | 110,251 | 160,344 | 174,133 | 192,992 | 28,366 | 27,491 | 27,378 | 27,015 | 29,156 | 39,438 | 48,696 | 43,053 |
| Gross profit | 13,594 | 13,381 | 13,762 | 21,395 | 22,978 | 25,483 | 3,462 | 3,176 | 3,319 | 3,805 | 4,011 | 5,127 | 6,520 | 5,737 |
| Selling expense | 3,277 | 3,264 | 3,219 | 4,470 | 4,702 | 4,718 | 758 | 730 | 824 | 907 | 850 | 1,051 | 1,363 | 1,205 |
| G&A expense | 1,636 | 2,069 | 2,263 | 3,083 | 3,483 | 3,377 | 576 | 540 | 547 | 601 | 593 | 656 | 974 | 861 |
| R&D expense | 4,007 | 4,427 | 4,511 | 6,184 | 6,617 | 7,141 | 1,084 | 1,027 | 1,199 | 1,201 | 1,207 | 1,350 | 1,948 | 1,679 |
| OP income | 4,674 | 3,622 | 3,768 | 7,658 | 8,177 | 10,247 | 1,045 | 879 | 749 | 1,096 | 1,362 | 2,070 | 2,235 | 1,991 |
| Pretax income | 4,801 | 4,242 | 3,854 | 7,728 | 8,100 | 10,244 | 1,099 | 626 | 880 | 1,248 | 1,427 | 2,027 | 2,191 | 2,084 |
| Net income | 3,803 | 3,451 | 3,063 | 6,267 | 6,521 | 8,246 | 918 | 493 | 665 | 987 | 1,132 | 1,630 | 1,797 | 1,709 |
| EBITDA | 6,759 | 6,263 | 6,773 | 10,060 | 10,418 | 12,458 | 1,774 | 1,592 | 1,531 | 1,876 | 2,155 | 2,910 | 2,967 | 2,028 |
| EPS (NT$) | 8.58 | 7.10 | 6.41 | 13.04 | 13.56 | 17.15 | 1.92 | 1.03 | 1.39 | 2.07 | 2.36 | 3.39 | 3.74 | 3.56 |
| Ratios | ||||||||||||||
| R&D to rev | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Opex ratio | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% |
| Tax rate | 20.8% | 18.6% | 20.5% | 18.9% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 16.5% | 21.2% | 24.4% | 20.9% | 20.6% | 19.6% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 12.3% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 13.3% |
| Operating margin | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| Pretax margin | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% |
| Net margin | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% |
| YoY | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 16% | -1% | 0% | 45% | 9% | 11% | 11% | -10% | 5% | -3% | 3% | 43% | 78% | 59% |
| Gross profit | 17% | -2% | 3% | 55% | 7% | 11% | 17% | -18% | 12% | 6% | 16% | 61% | 96% | 51% |
| OP income | 33% | -23% | 4% | 103% | 7% | 25% | 58% | -29% | 25% | -2% | 30% | 136% | 198% | 82% |
| Pretax income | 28% | -12% | -9% | 101% | 5% | 26% | 17% | -54% | 41% | -4% | 30% | 224% | 149% | 67% |
| Net income | 22% | -9% | -11% | 105% | 4% | 26% | 22% | -58% | 28% | -3% | 23% | 230% | 170% | 73% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Exhibit 4: WNC 12M forward P/E
Source: Datastream Datastream for Non-covered company Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Datastream
Exhibit 5: WNC peers' correlation of P/E and earnings growth
Price Target Risks and Methodology: WNC
Valuation: We use a near-term P/E to derive our 12m target price for WNC, consistent with our Taiwan Technology coverage. We base our TP of NT$380.0 on a target P/E multiple of 28.0x on a forward year EPS (2027E). Our target P/E is derived from the correlation between P/E and EPS growth of its peers. We are Buy rated on WNC. Key downside risks: fiercer-than-expected competition in satellite communication, slower-than-expected Wi-Fi 7 or 5G FWA ramp-up in US and Europe markets.
| 6285.TW | 12m Price Target: NT$380.00 | 12m Price Target: NT$380.00 | Price: NT$241.00 | Price: NT$241.00 | Upside: 57.7% | Upside: 57.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | Buy | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast |
| Market cap: NT$114.6bn / $3.5bn | Market cap: NT$114.6bn / $3.5bn | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) EPS (NT$) New EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) | 12/25 110,250.8 110,250.8 | 12/26E 160,343.5 | 12/27E 174,133.3 | 12/28E 192,992.5 |
| Enterprise value: | Enterprise value: | 159,545.2 | 170,751.9 | 189,999.9 | ||
| NT$115.4bn / $3.6bn | NT$115.4bn / $3.6bn | 6,772.9 | 10,059.6 | 10,417.6 | 12,457.9 | |
| 3m ADTV: NT$1.4bn / $43.5mn | 3m ADTV: NT$1.4bn / $43.5mn | 6.41 | 13.04 | 13.56 | 17.15 | |
| Taiwan | Taiwan | 6.41 | 12.96 | 13.26 | 16.85 | |
| Greater China Technology | Greater China Technology | 19.2 | 18.5 | 17.8 | 14.0 | |
| M&A Rank: 3 | M&A Rank: 3 | P/B (X) | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Dividend yield (%) | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.8 |
| CROCI (%) | 13.1 | 17.9 | 17.3 | 18.8 | ||
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |||
| EPS (NT$) | 3.39 | 3.74 | 3.56 | 2.47 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 15 Oct 2026 close.
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