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74KB | 真資料圖 | 「Pegatron (4938.TW)」Goldman Sachs 評等與目標價沿革圖（2023/7-2026/6）：目標價標籤 75、78、86、93、103、110、121、122、120、115、106、110、100.36、89.54、78.04、76.38、64.2、70.5、61、66.2；評等於 2024/10/3 由 NA 轉 N、2025/8/14 轉 S（沿革圖，公司頁不嵌） |
原始內容
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Pegatron (4938.TW): AI servers in expansion; New smartphone model with Broadband entering peak season to support growth ahead; Sell
3-month revenues preview: We expect sequential revenue growth in Sep-Dec, mainly driven by AI server racks ramp up with higher ASP and major smartphone brand customer's new model launches (report link). Overall, we project Pegatron's 3Q/4Q26E revenues to grow +18%/+25% YoY, driven by: (1) new model launches from a major smartphone customer supporting September and 4Q26 revenue growth; (2) a continuing ramp-up in AI server shipments, across rack-level and baseboard-based, riding on the growing demand in Neocloud and enterprises, (3) broadband, IoT, and game console entering peak season. We are positive on Pegatron's expansion from consumer electronics to AI servers and automotive electronics, while the high memory costs could cap PC and smartphone market growth. Maintain Sell on stretched valuation.
Exhibit 1: Pegatron monthly revenues and YoY change
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Pegatron's Aug revenue was up 34% YoY / 3% MoM to NT$88bn, or 12% lower than our estimate. This reflects that high memory costs continue to cap PC and smartphone growth, despite a strong ramp-up in AI servers. Aug PC shipments was down 49% YoY to 0.40-0.45m, reflecting the impact of consumption pull in under the high memory costs. Its major smartphone brand customer launched new models in Sep, supporting Pegatron's growth in Sep and 4Q26; prior to September, the company suffered from model transition (i.e. declining demand for older models while new models were in a slow shipment ramp-up phase).
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 2: Pegatron monthly/quarterly revenue summary
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 (E) | Oct-26 (E) | Nov-26 (E) | Dec-26 (E) | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 86,015 | 88,305 | 131,069 | 131,724 | 132,383 | 136,129 | 305,389 | 400,236 |
| Rev YoY | 12% | 34% | 14% | 12% | 30% | 36% | 18% | 25% |
| Rev MoM / QoQ | -6% | 3% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 11% | 31% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 100,638 | |||||||
| Act vs. GS | -12% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in Pegatron's Aug revenue and our 2026-28E net income largely unchanged. We cut our 2026-28E revenues by 1% / 1% / 1% to reflect the miss in consumer electronics under high memory costs. Our 2026-28E GM, OPM and NM are largely unchanged.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| NT m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Chg | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Chg | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,232,878 | 1,224,178 | -1% | 1,414,694 | 1,407,188 | -1% | 1,569,030 | 1,560,953 | -1% |
| GP | 51,755 | 51,451 | -1% | 57,314 | 57,059 | 0% | 62,119 | 61,853 | 0% |
| OP | 17,131 | 17,055 | 0% | 19,966 | 19,909 | 0% | 21,795 | 21,736 | 0% |
| Net income | 17,420 | 17,357 | 0% | 19,227 | 19,218 | 0% | 20,898 | 20,861 | 0% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | |||
| OPM | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | |||
| NM | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: Pegatron P&L summary
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 272,433 | 267,336 | 257,863 | 319,528 | 244,105 | 274,448 | 305,389 | 400,236 | 1,125,349 | 1,117,160 | 1,224,178 | 1,407,188 | 1,560,953 |
| Gross profit | 10,165 | 8,377 | 10,902 | 13,057 | 10,801 | 12,156 | 12,490 | 16,004 | 46,033 | 42,501 | 51,451 | 57,059 | 61,853 |
| Operating expense | (3,634) | (3,197) | (3,716) | (4,245) | (4,091) | (3,659) | (3,411) | (4,470) | (33,532) | (30,893) | (34,396) | (37,150) | (40,117) |
| Operating income | 2,483 | 1,471 | 3,218 | 4,437 | 2,829 | 4,198 | 4,498 | 5,530 | 12,501 | 11,609 | 17,055 | 19,909 | 21,736 |
| Pre tax profit | 6,669 | 1,731 | 7,675 | 8,859 | 3,465 | 7,744 | 6,337 | 7,369 | 27,224 | 24,934 | 24,915 | 25,286 | 29,801 |
| Net income | 4,303 | 287 | 4,545 | 5,267 | 1,561 | 4,488 | 5,228 | 6,079 | 16,877 | 14,403 | 17,357 | 19,218 | 20,861 |
| EPS, diluted (NT$) | 1.61 | 0.11 | 1.69 | 1.95 | 0.58 | 1.66 | 1.94 | 2.25 | 6.28 | 5.35 | 6.43 | 7.12 | 7.73 |
| Margins / ratio | |||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| Opex ratio | -2.8% | -2.6% | -3.0% | -2.7% | -3.3% | -2.9% | -2.6% | -2.6% | -3.0% | -2.8% | -2.8% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| Operating margin | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Net margin | 1.6% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | -17% | -2% | -4% | 24% | -24% | 12% | 11% | 31% | |||||
| Gross profit | -14% | -18% | 30% | 20% | -17% | 13% | 3% | 28% | |||||
| Operating income | -14% | -41% | 119% | 38% | -36% | 48% | 7% | 23% | |||||
| Net income | 15% | -93% | 1481% | 16% | -70% | 187% | 17% | 16% | |||||
| YoY | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 9% | 5% | -12% | -2% | -10% | 3% | 18% | 25% | -10% | -1% | 10% | 15% | 11% |
| Gross profit | -4% | -28% | -9% | 11% | 6% | 45% | 15% | 23% | 0% | -8% | 21% | 11% | 8% |
| Operating income | -18% | -50% | -12% | 53% | 14% | 185% | 40% | 25% | -16% | -7% | 47% | 17% | 9% |
| Net income | 32% | -95% | 6% | 41% | -64% | 1461% | 15% | 15% | 7% | -15% | 21% | 11% | 9% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to derive our 12M TP based on near-term P/E, and our target P/E is updated to 10.8x 2027E EPS, (vs. 10.6x previously), derived from the refreshed peers correlation of forward year earnings growth and P/E. With the updated earnings and target multiple, our 12M TP is revised up to NT$76.9 (vs. NT$75.5 previously). The target P/E of 10.8x is within the company's historical avg. and avg.-1std forward trading P/E. Maintain Sell.
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Exhibit 5: Correlation of earnings growth and P/E of peers
Exhibit 6: Pegatron 12M forward P/E ratio
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 7: Pegatron QFII holdings
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 8: Pegatron net income and OPM
Source: TEJ
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Pegatron
We are Sell rated on Pegatron with a 12-month target price of NT$76.9. Our TP is based on a 10.8x 2027E P/E, which is derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's share performance.
Key risks: 1) stronger-than-expected smartphone market recovery, 2) faster-than-expected AI server ramp-up, and 3) stronger-than-expected demand on consumer electronics.
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4938.TW
12m Price Target: NT$76.90
Price: NT$91.30
Downside: 15.8%
| Sell | GS Forecast | ||||
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | ||
| Market cap: NT$246.4bn / $7.7bn Enterprise value: NT$263.9bn / $8.3bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.1bn / $33.9mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 1,117,160.4 | 1,224,177.8 | 1,407,187.8 | 1,560,953.4 |
| 1,117,160.4 | 1,232,878.0 | 1,414,693.7 | 1,569,030.3 | ||
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 26,338.3 | 41,804.8 | 38,059.6 | 36,186.4 | |
| EPS (NT$) New | 5.39 | 6.48 | 7.17 | 7.79 | |
| EPS (NT$) Old | 5.39 | 6.50 | 7.18 | 7.80 | |
| P/E (X) | 14.9 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 11.7 | |
| P/B (X) | 4.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.2 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 6.3 | |
| CROCI (%) | 3.8 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 8.4 | |
| EPS (NT$) | 6/26 1.68 | 9/26E 1.95 | 12/26E 2.27 | 3/27E 1.91 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 24 Sep 2026 close.
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