PDF 原檔：報告_GS_全新2455_20261102_original.pdf
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_001、_002 <40KB 亦逐張 Read；三張皆為營收組合／估值／評等類，公司頁依規則不嵌。
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
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30KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：VPEC 各產品營收堆疊柱（NT m，2023–2028E；Microelectronics、Optoelectronics: SiPh epi-wafer、Opto: others for data centers、Opto: others）與 GM 折線（右軸），SiPh epi-wafer 占比標示 2025 年 6%、2026E 29%、2027E 47%、2028E 60%；GM 由 2025 年谷底約 36% 升至 2028E 約 49.5% |
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33KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 9：VPEC 12M forward PE 折線（2015-01 至 2026 年中），標示 +1stv. 46.4x、avg. 35.0x、-1stv. 23.7x；2024 年中高點約 74x |
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66KB | 真資料圖 | VPEC（2455.TW）Goldman Sachs 評等與目標價沿革圖（2023–2026，標示 Rating、Price target、Price target at removal，標註目標價含 189.5、233、267、504、505、793 等，疊加 Taiwan SE Weighted Index；資料至 2026-09-30） |
原始內容
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VPEC (2455.TW): Optoelectronics mix upgrade driving GM expansion; 3Q26 in line; Buy
3Q26 revenues increased 39% QoQ, with optoelectronics (mainly InP epiwafer for PD and CW lasers) revenues contribution up to 43% (vs. 27% in 2Q26), driving GM up to 45% (vs. 39% in 2Q26). Along with opex ratio further improved to 13.7% (vs. 15.4% in 2Q26), VPEC's OP income increased 87% QoQ in 3Q26, or 2% behind / 7% above our / Bloomberg consensus estimates. Looking ahead, we expect 4Q26E revenues to further increase by 14% QoQ, with GM up to 46% driven by product mix upgrade toward Optoelectronics. The company also announced its issuance of unsecured convertible bonds valued at NT$1.5bn (US$46m), to supplement its procurement in raw materials and equipment, reflecting the strong demand and VPEC's commitment in capacity expansion; as we highlighted in Oct (Global Server TAM updates) where our US Internet team forecast that leading US cloud service providers (CSPs) in aggregate would grow their capex budgets by 84%/ 52%/ 13% YoY in 2026E-28E and where we raise our estimates by 4% / 17% / 22% in 2026-28E to US$1,397bn by 2028E. We remain positive view on VPEC, which we believe is positioned to benefit from the AI server racks ramp up, optical networking specification upgrades across transmitters / CW lasers (toward 1.6T optical modules) and receivers (toward 200G PD), product expansion toward EML base epiwafers, further customer penetration for CW lasers, improving InP substrate supply, and opportunities in InP epiwafers for high power lasers for NPO and CPO. Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 1: VPEC revenues by products and GM trend
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
3-month revenue preview: VPEC delivered solid revenue growth at 39% QoQ / 47% YoY in 3Q26; Looking ahead, we expect +14% QoQ in 4Q26E, riding on new AI server racks ramp up and optical networking specification upgrade toward 1.6T optical
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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modules, along with capacity expansion and better InP substrate supply to better capture the demand. The company's Sep revenues sequentially declined by 5% given fewer working days, leading to slower procurement from their customers in Japan and mainland China. With the revenues delayed to 4Q26, along with strong demand on AI data center, we expect monthly revenues to increase sequentially in Oct to Dec, leading 4Q26 revenues at 14% QoQ.
Exhibit 2: VPEC monthly revenue preview
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26 (E) | Nov-26 (E) | Dec-26 (E) | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 422 | 471 | 449 | 474 | 505 | 545 | 1,342 | 1,523 |
| YoY | 45% | 71% | 29% | 33% | 77% | 71% | 47% | 59% |
| MoM/QoQ | 29% | 12% | -5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 39% | 14% |
| GS (NT$m) | 342 | 377 | 493 | |||||
| Actual vs. GS | 23% | 25% | -9% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in 3Q26 results and cut our net income by 7% in 2026E, to reflect modest revenue moderation from smartphone RF pacing alongside a higher R&D expense ratio for AI data center products. Despite the cut, we continue to expect sequentially higher revenues in 4Q26E with GM continuing to expand in 4Q26E vs. 3Q26, driven by new AI server racks ramp up and optical networking specification upgrade toward 1.6T optical modules, along with capacity expansion and better InP substrate supply to better capture the demand. We keep our 2027E-28E estimates largely unchanged.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| NT$m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Diff % | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Diff % | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 5,009 | 4,790 | -4% | 7,437 | 7,472 | 0% | 10,934 | 10,892 | 0% |
| GP | 2,152 | 2,045 | -5% | 3,502 | 3,504 | 0% | 5,405 | 5,398 | 0% |
| OP | 1,515 | 1,422 | -6% | 2,616 | 2,614 | 0% | 4,074 | 4,072 | 0% |
| Net income | 1,283 | 1,193 | -7% | 2,144 | 2,142 | 0% | 3,313 | 3,310 | 0% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 43.0% | 42.7% | 47.1% | 46.9% | 49.4% | 49.6% | |||
| OPM | 30.2% | 29.7% | 35.2% | 35.0% | 37.3% | 37.4% | |||
| NM | 25.6% | 24.9% | 28.8% | 28.7% | 30.3% | 30.4% | |||
| Opex ratio | 12.7% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 12.2% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: VPEC 3Q26 results snapshot
| NT$m | 3Q25 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | QoQ | YoY | GS | Act / GS | Cons. | Act / Cons. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 913 | 965 | 1,342 | 39% | 47% | 1,386 | -3% | 1,322 | 2% |
| GP | 300 | 373 | 603 | 62% | 101% | 609 | -1% | 557 | 8% |
| OP | 159 | 224 | 419 | 87% | 164% | 429 | -2% | 392 | 7% |
| Net income | 160 | 214 | 338 | 58% | 111% | 354 | -4% | 313 | 8% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 32.9% | 38.6% | 44.9% | 43.9% | 42.1% | ||||
| OPM | 17.4% | 23.2% | 31.3% | 31.0% | 29.7% | ||||
| NM | 17.6% | 22.1% | 25.2% | 25.5% | 23.7% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Compared to the Bloomberg consensus, our net income is 9% / 6% higher in 2026E / 2027E, mainly on higher revenues and GM, reflecting our positive view on its InP epiwafers for optical networking across transmitters / CW lasers and receivers, which we believe will continue to drive its product mix upgrade, GM expansion, and expand the e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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end market exposure from consumer electronics to AI data centers.
Exhibit 5: GS vs. Bloomberg consensus
| NT$m | 2026E - GS | 2026E - Cons. | 2026E - Diff % | 2027E - GS | 2027E - Cons. | 2027E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 4,790 | 4,693 | 2% | 7,472 | 7,077 | 6% |
| GP | 2,045 | 1,923 | 6% | 3,504 | 3,270 | 7% |
| OP | 1,422 | 1,302 | 9% | 2,614 | 2,489 | 5% |
| Net income | 1,193 | 1,099 | 9% | 2,142 | 2,022 | 6% |
| Margins | ||||||
| GM | 42.7% | 41.0% | 46.9% | 46.2% | ||
| OPM | 29.7% | 27.7% | 35.0% | 35.2% | ||
| NM | 24.9% | 23.4% | 28.7% | 28.6% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 6: VPEC P&L summary
| NT$ mn | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 2,604 | 2,694 | 3,241 | 3,380 | 4,790 | 7,472 | 10,892 | 959 | 965 | 1,342 | 1,523 | 1,637 | 1,709 | 2,035 | 2,090 |
| Gross profit | 1,089 | 1,109 | 1,279 | 1,220 | 2,045 | 3,504 | 5,398 | 365 | 373 | 603 | 704 | 748 | 786 | 974 | 995 |
| OP income | 580 | 542 | 721 | 669 | 1,422 | 2,614 | 4,072 | 227 | 224 | 419 | 552 | 553 | 583 | 732 | 746 |
| Net income | 545 | 450 | 671 | 548 | 1,193 | 2,142 | 3,310 | 195 | 214 | 338 | 446 | 455 | 479 | 598 | 610 |
| EPS (NT$) | 2.93 | 2.43 | 3.62 | 2.95 | 6.36 | 11.42 | 17.65 | 1.04 | 1.14 | 1.80 | 2.38 | 2.43 | 2.55 | 3.19 | 3.25 |
| Ratios | |||||||||||||||
| R&D to rev | 13.8% | 15.9% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| Opex ratio | 19.6% | 21.0% | 17.2% | 16.3% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 14.5% | 15.4% | 13.7% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% |
| Tax rate | 18.4% | 16.9% | 17.9% | 17.9% | 18.3% | 19.9% | 19.9% | 19.9% | 9.8% | 20.1% | 19.9% | 19.9% | 19.9% | 19.9% | 19.9% |
| Margins | |||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 41.8% | 41.2% | 39.5% | 36.1% | 42.7% | 46.9% | 49.6% | 38.1% | 38.6% | 44.9% | 46.2% | 45.7% | 46.0% | 47.9% | 47.6% |
| Operating margin | 22.3% | 20.1% | 22.3% | 19.8% | 29.7% | 35.0% | 37.4% | 23.6% | 23.2% | 31.3% | 36.2% | 33.8% | 34.1% | 36.0% | 35.7% |
| Net margin | 20.9% | 16.7% | 20.7% | 16.2% | 24.9% | 28.7% | 30.4% | 20.3% | 22.1% | 25.2% | 29.3% | 27.8% | 28.0% | 29.4% | 29.2% |
| YoY | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | -28% | 3% | 20% | 4% | 42% | 56% | 46% | 21% | 35% | 47% | 59% | 71% | 77% | 52% | 37% |
| Gross profit | -28% | 2% | 15% | -5% | 68% | 71% | 54% | 15% | 52% | 101% | 97% | 105% | 111% | 62% | 41% |
| OP income | -45% | -7% | 33% | -7% | 112% | 84% | 56% | 27% | 83% | 164% | 164% | 144% | 160% | 74% | 35% |
| Net income | -36% | -17% | 49% | -18% | 118% | 80% | 55% | 24% | 488% | 111% | 130% | 133% | 124% | 77% | 37% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 0% | 1% | 39% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 19% | 3% | |||||||
| Gross profit | 2% | 2% | 62% | 17% | 6% | 5% | 24% | 2% | |||||||
| OP income | 8% | -1% | 87% | 32% | 0% | 5% | 26% | 2% | |||||||
| Net income | 1% | 9% | 58% | 32% | 2% | 5% | 25% | 2% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to derive our 12m target price from 2029E P/E discounted back to 2027E at 10.5% COE (no change), and derive our target P/E multiple from refreshed peers' trading P/E vs. forward year fundamentals (NI YoY and OPM). Based on our 2029E-30E NI YoY of 18% (unchanged) and 2029-30E OPM of 38% (unchanged), and peers' PEG&M of 0.4x (unchanged), we derive target P/E multiple at 22.0x (vs. 22.2x previously), reflecting a slight peer group multiple compression amid the product transition window from 800G to 1.6T optical transceivers, balanced by sustained long-term AI optical networking demand. Our new 12-month target price is at NT$785 (vs. NT$793 previously). Our new TP implies 2027E P/E at 68.7x (vs. 69.4x previously), within the company's trading range (vs. peak at 74x, and +1stv. at 47x). Maintain Buy.
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Exhibit 7: VPEC peers comparison
| Ticker | Company | Rating | 2027E P/E | 2027-28E NI YoY | 2027-28E OPM | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3081.TWO | LandMark | Buy | 64.1 | 72% | 49% | 0.5 |
| 688498.SS | YJ Semi | Neutral | 101.0 | 82% | 51% | 0.8 |
| 5802.JT | Sumitomo | Buy | 12.4 | 20% | 10% | 0.4 |
| LITE | Lumentum | NC | 38.8 | 90% | 51% | 0.3 |
| COHR | Coherent | NC | 24.5 | 45% | 24% | 0.4 |
| 6503.JT | Mitsubishi | Buy | 15.0 | 9% | 12% | 0.7 |
| 300502.SZ | Eoptolink | Buy | 8.6 | 39% | 46% | 0.1 |
| Avg. (excl. outliers) | Avg. (excl. outliers) | 29.7 | 53% | 36% | 0.4 | |
| 2029E P/E | 2029-30E NI YoY | 2029-30E OPM | PEG&M | |||
| 2455.TW | VPEC | Buy | 22.0 | 18% | 38% | 0.4 |
Outliers are in grey. NC (not covered) companies' estimates are from Bloomberg consensus.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 8: VPEC discounted P/E
| (NT$mn) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SiPh Rev contribution | 1% | 6% | 26% | 48% | 60% | ||||
| SiPh GP contribution | 1% | 8% | 36% | 58% | 70% | ||||
| Revenue | 2,604 | 2,694 | 3,241 | 3,380 | 4,790 | 7,472 | 10,892 | 13,234 | 15,087 |
| YoY | -28% | 3% | 20% | 4% | 42% | 56% | 46% | 22% | 14% |
| Gross margin | 41.8% | 41.2% | 39.5% | 36.1% | 42.7% | 46.9% | 49.6% | 49.8% | 50.0% |
| Operating profit | 580 | 542 | 721 | 669 | 1,422 | 2,614 | 4,072 | 4,974 | 5,700 |
| YoY | -45% | -7% | 33% | -7% | 112% | 84% | 56% | 22% | 15% |
| Operating margin | 22% | 20% | 22% | 20% | 30% | 35% | 37% | 38% | 38% |
| Pre-tax profit | 667 | 542 | 818 | 667 | 1,460 | 2,674 | 4,133 | 5,035 | 5,761 |
| Net profit | 545 | 450 | 671 | 548 | 1,193 | 2,142 | 3,310 | 4,033 | 4,615 |
| EPS (NT$, diluted) | 2.93 | 2.43 | 3.62 | 2.95 | 6.36 | 11.42 | 17.65 | 43.58 | 49.87 |
| YoY | -36% | -17% | 49% | -18% | 118% | 80% | 55% | 22% | 14% |
| TP implied P/E | 268 | 323 | 217 | 266 | 123 | 69 | 44 | 18 | 16 |
| 2029E target P/E | 22.0 |
|---|---|
| Target multiple x EPS | 959 |
| Discounted back to 2027; TP (NTD) | 785.0 |
| Implied 2027 P/E | 68.7 |
| COE assumption | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.7 |
| Risk free | 1.6% |
| Market risk premium | 5.1% |
| COE | 10.5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 9: VPEC 12M forward PE ratio
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - VPEC
Valuation: We adopt a discounted P/E method and apply a 22.0x target P/E on VPEC's e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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2029E EPS, discounting back to 2027E at a COE of 10.5% (beta 1.7x, risk free rate 1.6% and market risk premium at 5.1%), to derive our 12m TP of NT$785. Our target P/E is based on a 0.4x PEG&M ratio derived from the average level of peers in the photonics supply chain.
Key risk: Slower-than-expected SiPh business ramp up; weaker-than-expected microelectronics demand from smartphones clients; IDM offers EPI wafer in-house.
| 2455.TW | 12m Price Target: NT$785.00 | 12m Price Target: NT$785.00 | Price: NT$447.00 | Price: NT$447.00 | Upside: 75.6% | Upside: 75.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | Buy | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast |
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |||
| Market cap: NT$83.8bn / $2.6bn | Market cap: NT$83.8bn / $2.6bn | Revenue (NT$ mn) New | 3,380.1 | 4,790.0 | 7,472.4 | 10,892.5 |
| Enterprise value: | Enterprise value: | Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 3,380.1 | 5,009.3 | 7,437.4 | 10,934.4 |
| NT$83.1bn / $2.5bn | NT$83.1bn / $2.5bn | EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 960.2 | 1,734.9 | 2,964.1 | 4,407.2 |
| 3m ADTV: NT$4.9bn / $153.0mn | 3m ADTV: NT$4.9bn / $153.0mn | EPS (NT$) New | 2.95 | 6.36 | 11.42 | 17.65 |
| Taiwan | Taiwan | EPS (NT$) Old | 2.95 | 6.84 | 11.43 | 17.66 |
| Greater China Technology 3 | Greater China Technology 3 | P/E (X) | 46.4 | 70.3 | 39.1 | 25.3 |
| M&A Rank: | M&A Rank: | P/B (X) | 7.7 | 24.5 | 23.0 | 21.0 |
| Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Dividend yield (%) | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.5 |
| CROCI (%) | 11.5 | 20.6 | 33.6 | 51.5 | ||
| 9/26 | 12/26E | 3/27E | 6/27E | |||
| EPS (NT$) | 1.80 | 2.38 | 2.43 | 2.55 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 30 Oct 2026 close.
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