PDF 原檔：報告_GS_ODM產業_20260903_original.pdf
原始內容
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Taiwan ODM/Brands: 3-month preview: Jul -4% MoM on avg; new AI server racks to drive 2H26E growth
We preview 3-month revenues for 10 companies under coverage in the AI server/PC supply chain, and update our estimates for Pegatron. Across the supply chain, we are positive on: (1) Apple's supply chain on the back of a ramp up of new models with form factor changes (i.e. foldable phones in 2026, and the iPhone 20 in 2027) to support end demand; (2) AI server components to ride on speci fi cation upgrades; and (3) ASIC AI servers' rising penetration rate. Buy: Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Wistron, AVC; Neutral: Gigabyte, Quanta, Inventec, Compal, ASUS; Sell: Pegatron.
On a MoM basis, we expect the average revenue growth of the 10 companies to come in at -2%/ -3%/ +3% in Aug/ Sep/ Oct 2026 (Exhibit 1). We expect fl at MoM growth in coming months, considering the consumer electronics business slowdown post the demand pull-in in 1H26, while o ff set by the rising AI server shipments, driven by the strong end demand and next-generation rack-level AI server shipments ramp up.
On a YoY basis, we expect the average revenue growth of the 10 companies to come in at +50%/ +25%/ +27% in Aug/ Sep/ Oct 2026 (Exhibit 2), driven by the continuous ramp-up of AI servers, along with a PC product mix upgrade, new smartphone models, and high memory costs driving up the selling price.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Ting Song
+852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Yifan Hu +852-2978-0996 | yifan.hu@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 1: Aug 2026E revenue MoM
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Aug 2026E revenue YoY
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
May 2026 to Oct 2026 revenue trends for Taiwan server / PC names
Exhibit 3: Taiwan PC/server names monthly revenue summary
| Rev YoY | Rev YoY | Rev YoY | Rev YoY | Rev YoY | Rev YoY | Rev MoM | Rev MoM | Rev MoM | Rev MoM | Rev MoM | Rev MoM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26(E) | Sep-26(E) | Oct-26(E) | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26(E) | Sep-26(E) | Oct-26(E) | |
| Wiwynn | 18% | 30% | 39% | 18% | 26% | 26% | 2% | 33% | 6% | -4% | -4% | 9% |
| Quanta | 94% | 103% | 131% | 92% | 38% | 38% | -8% | 24% | -5% | -20% | -13% | 9% |
| Gigabyte | 5% | 69% | 60% | 100% | 86% | 86% | -6% | -13% | 3% | 8% | 9% | -9% |
| Wistron | 39% | 54% | 61% | 80% | 54% | 54% | 2% | 11% | -4% | 1% | 1% | 15% |
| Inventec | 35% | 62% | 66% | 29% | 5% | 5% | -2% | 23% | -12% | -12% | -20% | 2% |
| Asus | 9% | 56% | 53% | 41% | 17% | 17% | -16% | 54% | -21% | 5% | 9% | -15% |
| Compal | 22% | 58% | 38% | 43% | 27% | 45% | -2% | 36% | -15% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| Hon Hai | 40% | 52% | 54% | 73% | 26% | 24% | 3% | -4% | 15% | 11% | 1% | 5% |
| Pegatron | 12% | 16% | 12% | 53% | 7% | 7% | 10% | -5% | -6% | 17% | 22% | 3% |
| AVC | 61% | 66% | 57% | 53% | 38% | 33% | 2% | 11% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 9% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: Taiwan ODM notebook monthly shipment
| July-25 | Aug-25 | Sep-25 | Oct-25 | Nov-25 | Dec-25 | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notebook shipments (m units) | 10.8 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 13.8 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 8.2 |
| Quanta | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| Compal | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Inventec | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Wistron | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Pegatron | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| YoY | |||||||||||||
| Quanta | 18% | -5% | -6% | 9% | -3% | -9% | -4% | -35% | 8% | 6% | -8% | -10% | -30% |
| Compal | -8% | -21% | -14% | -25% | -15% | 4% | -30% | -29% | -3% | -18% | -17% | -4% | -22% |
| Inventec | 0% | 6% | 6% | -6% | 0% | 0% | 13% | -6% | 16% | -12% | -17% | 14% | -6% |
| Wistron | 25% | 29% | 16% | 17% | 29% | 44% | 13% | 7% | 47% | 6% | -6% | -17% | -20% |
| Pegatron | -3% | -6% | 0% | 41% | 12% | 23% | 15% | -26% | -4% | -14% | -26% | -34% | -47% |
| MoM / QoQ | |||||||||||||
| Quanta | -20% | 2% | 12% | -24% | 0% | 11% | -31% | -26% | 165% | -34% | 0% | 29% | -38% |
| Compal | -8% | 0% | 9% | -16% | 10% | 4% | -33% | -6% | 87% | -36% | 11% | 20% | -25% |
| Inventec | -19% | 6% | 6% | -16% | 6% | 18% | -15% | -12% | 47% | -32% | 0% | 60% | -33% |
| Wistron | -17% | 10% | 0% | -5% | 5% | 18% | -35% | -6% | 75% | -36% | -6% | 18% | -20% |
| Pegatron | -24% | 10% | 0% | -6% | -10% | 32% | -24% | -39% | 59% | -22% | 10% | 13% | -38% |
Source: Company data
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Mon Mals monty annual revenue
May 2026 June 2026
859,409
821,763
40%
52%
946,513
July 2026
54%
Aug 2026E
1,050,629
1,057,702
73%
Sep 2026E
26%
Oct 2026E
1,110,587
24%
2Q26
2,513,270
40%
Hon Hai (2317.TW; Buy, on CL): Jul rev in line at +54% YoY; AI server and smartphones to support 3Q growth 5% 18% 2% 5%
Hon Hai's Jul revenues were +54% YoY/ +15% MoM to NT$947m, or 2% higher than our estimates, overall in line. From a MoM perspective, Consumer Electronics & Components delivered signi fi cant growth MoM, bene fi tting from the pull-in momentum, followed by Cloud and Networking & Computing which achieved strong growth MoM. From a YoY perspective, all segments across Consumer Electronics, Components, Cloud and Networking & Computing delivered strong growth YoY, and management attributed this to the strong pull-in momentum and higher selling prices of Consumer Electronics and Computing products. We expect 3Q26E revenues to be +48% YoY / +22% QoQ to NT$3.1 trillion. June/ July delivered strong YoY (+52%/ 54% YoY), and we expect Aug revenues to remain strong at 73% YoY / 11% MoM to NT$1,051bn, supported by AI rack server ramp-up, and strong seasonality of the consumer electronics business. Maintain Buy (on CL).
Exhibit 5: We model Hon Hai's Aug 2026 revenue to be +73% YoY or +11% MoM Hon Hai's monthly/annual revenue
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 6: Hon Hai monthly revenues
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Hon Hai
Valuation methodology: We are Buy rated on Hon Hai. Our 12-month target price of NT$400 is based on a 18.9x 2027E P/E multiple, which is set in line with peers' PEG&M ratio (i.e., P/E vs. forward-year earnings growth and OPM).
Key downside risks: (1) slower-than-expected ramp-up of the AI server business; (2) weaker-than-expected EV total solution performance across EV assembly, design, software, and semis; (3) slower-than-expected ramp-up of capacity globally; and (4) fi ercer-than-expected competition in the consumer electronics EMS business.
YoY
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3026E
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Ludila monty/ quarterly revenue summary
Jul-26
Rev (NTSm)
YoY
MoM/QoQ
GS (NTSm)
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Aug-26(E) Sep-26(E)
293,019
254,933|
92%
38%|
-20%
-5%
-13%
Oct-26(E)
277,876
60%
9%
Nov-26(E)
308,443
60%
11%
Dec-26(E)
352,444
29%|
14%|
3026E
914,226
85%
-12%
938,764
4026E
47%
3%
Quanta (2382.TW, Neutral): AI server in strong ramp up; PC to decline in 2H26 on high memory cost
Quanta's Jul revenue was down 5% QoQ / up 131% YoY, or 21% higher than our estimate, which we attribute to the strong rack-level AI server shipments, along with the stronger than expected PC shipments at 4.5m units. Looking ahead, we expect sequential revenue decline in Aug-Sep, mainly on the memory price hike weighing on PC end demand. We model sequential revenue increases in Oct-Dec, supported by the next generation rack-level AI server shipments ramp up, which carries a higher ASP. Overall, we model Quanta's 3Q / 4Q26E revenues to grow at 85% / 47% YoY, riding on the growing AI infrastructure trend. Maintain Neutral.
Exhibit 7: We model Quanta's Aug 2026E revenue +92% YoY, or -20% MoM Quanta monthly/quarterly revenue summary
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 8: Quanta monthly revenues
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Quanta
We are Neutral-rated on Quanta. Our 12-month target price of NT$299 is based on an 11x 2027E P/E , which references PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's performance.
Key upside/downside risks include: 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery; 2) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up; and 3) stronger-/weaker-than-expected demand for general servers.
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5
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Exmble 10. Are monumy revenues camore so Are monty quarterly revenue summary
Jul-26
6%
- 2025-26 monthly revenues
Rev (NTSm)
NTSm
25,000
Rev YoY
Rev MoM / QoQ
20,000
Act vs. GS
15,000
10,000
5,000
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
53%
4%
Sep-26E
20,084
—YoY(RHS)
38%
Oct-26E
21,892
33%
Nov-26E
160%
9%
24,300
40%
11%
Dec-26E
27,557
13%
98%
3Q26E
58,008
18%
49%
4Q26E
54%
73,749
27%
AVC (3017.TW, Buy): Liquid cooling component ASP and GM upside on the rising complexity of server racks; July in line 140% 100%
80%
60%
AVC's Jul revenue was up 57% YoY / 6% QoQ to NT$19bn, largely in line with our estimate. We attribute the strong YoY growth to the strong shipments of AI server liquid cooling components, riding on the increasing AI server end demand and a growing liquid cooling penetration rate. We model sequential revenue growth in Aug-Dec, considering (1) rising shipments of next-generation rack-level AI servers, (2) an increase in liquid cooling dollar content in next-generation AI server racks given their growing complexity, and (3) a rising liquid cooling penetration rate in both ASIC and GPU AI servers. Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 9: AVC monthly/quarterly revenue summary
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 10: AVC monthly revenues
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - AVC
We are Buy-rated on AVC. Our 12-month target price for AVC is based on a near-term P/E, consistent with our Taiwan Technology coverage. We base our target price of NT$3,986 on a target P/E multiple of 28.2x applied to our forward-year EPS (2027E). Our target P/E is derived from the correlation between P/E and EPS growth of its peers in technology hardware.
Key downside risks: (1) slower-than-expected adoption of liquid cooling; (2) lower-than-expected demand for AI servers; (3) fi ercer-than-expected competition; and (4) a slower-than-expected recovery in general servers.
4%.
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camore 11 wiwymn monty revenues preview
Jul-26
Rev (NT$m)
YoY
MoM/ QoQ
Act vs. GS
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
113,567
Aug-26(E)
18%
-4%
6%
Sep-26(E)
109,150
26%
-4%
Oct-26(E)
118,974
30%
9%
Nov-26(E)
136,820
41%
15%
Dec-26(E)
194,362
86%
42%|
340,402
3026E
28%
22%
450,156
4026E
54%
32%
Wiwynn (6669.TW, Buy): July revenues sequentially increase; Capex strong increase shows strong AI demand
Wiwynn July revenues were in line with our estimates at NT$118bn, driven by solid general servers growth and its major ASIC customers' new generation of ASIC AI servers (air-cooling) entering mass production since June 2026. Looking ahead, we model sequential revenues decline in Aug and Sep, considering the high-base of general servers, while liquid-cooled ASIC AI servers of its major customer, and GPU AI server racks ramp up is in 4Q26E. Nevertheless, the 3Q26 revenues growth would be much stronger than 1Q26 (-5% QoQ), and 2Q26 (+1% QoQ), up to +22% QoQ, and we expect further acceleration to +32% QoQ in 4Q26, driven by AI servers new models ramp up, AI servers expansion from ASIC to GPU, potential ASIC AI servers SKU expansion, and less impact of business model transition from Buy & Sell to Consign for general servers. Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 11: Wiwynn monthly revenues preview
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 12: Wiwynn monthly revenues
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Wiwynn
We are Buy-rated on Wiwynn with a 12-month TP of NT$3,352.55. Our target price is based on 20x 2027E P/E, which is derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's performance.
Key downside risks: 1) weaker-than-expected AI server demand growth; 2) slower-than-expected recovery in general server demand; and 3) more severe competition in the server ODM market.
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Exmolt 1o. wistrons montn revenlue preview
Exmble 14. wistron montmy revenues
NTSm
26-Jul
Rev (NT$m)
400,000
Rev YoY
Rev MoM / QoQ
350,000
300,000
GS estimates
250,000
Act. Vs. GS
200,000
-4%
Aug-26 (E)
311,301
80%
1%
Sep-26 (E)
314,144
-YoY (RHS) |
54%|
1%
Oct-26 (E)
361,266
95%
15%
Nov-26 (E)
422,681
51%
250%
17%
Dec-26 (E)
518,740
23%
3026 (E)
933,665
64%
4%
40,26 (E)
1,302,688
81%
40%
Wistron (3231.TW, Buy): July and 2Q26 beat; AI server rack in a strong ramp-up with customer expansion and speci fi cation upgrades 150%
150,000
100,000
50,000
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
100%
Wistron's July revenue was up 61% YoY to NT$308bn, or 30% higher than our estimate, re fl ecting strong AI server rack demand from neo-cloud and enterprises, o ff setting the impact of the model transition. We expect sequential revenue growth ahead through Dec 2026, driven by new GPU AI server racks entering mass production in 4Q26, which will drive up the ASP, along with strong AI spending and the expansion of company's customer base. The new GPU AI server racks have various racks across GPU, CPU, and LPU, supporting ODM growth in coming quarters. On PC, the company's July shipments were at 1.6m units (-20% MoM / YoY), re fl ecting modest demand under high memory costs. Despite PC shipments likely being negative HoH considering the strong pull-in since late 2025, we expect the strong AI server rack ramp-up to o ff set the impact, driving 2H26 revenue up +28% HoH. Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 13: Wistron 3-month revenue preview
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 14: Wistron monthly revenues
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Wistron
Our 12-month target price of NT$281 is based on a 13.1x 2027E P/E, which is derived from PC/server peer EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's share price performance.
Key downside risks: 1) weaker-than-expected PC market recovery, 2) slower-than-expected AI server demand ramp-up, and 3) weaker-than-expected demand on general servers.
103%|
LL
Ap
Ju
Nov-
Dec-
Jan-
Feb.
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Jigbyle montmy/quarterly revenue summar y
Jul-26 Aug-26(E)
60%
47,750
100%
Sep-26(E)
52,002
86%
Oct-26(E)
47,322
67%
Nov-26(E)
47,795
56%
Dec-26(E)
48,745
61%
2026
144,214
41%
3Q26E
143,965
81%
4Q26E
61%
Gigabyte (2376.TW, Neutral): AI server in expansion; Strong capex commitment to capture the demand; July and 2Q26 beat 12%
Gigabyte's Jul revenue was up 60% YoY / 3% MoM, or 18% higher than our estimate, which we attribute to the strong shipments performance of both baseboard and rack-level AI servers. We model sequential revenue growth in Aug-Sep, supported by the rising AI server shipments, and we expect revenues to stay high in 3Q / 4Q26E post strong growth in 1H26, driving 2H26 revenues growth at +15% HoH. Management remains positive on 2H26 growth driven by strong AI demand, customers' faster AI deployment, and Gigabyte's expanding customer base and enhancing services. Management expects their customers' infrastructure readiness and components procurement to continue to improve in 2H26, supporting the procurement on AI servers. Maintain Neutral.
Exhibit 15: We expect Gigabyte Aug/ Sep revenues to grow 100%/ 86% YoY to NT$48bn/ NT$52bn Gigabyte monthly/quarterly revenue summary
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 16: Gigabyte monthly revenues
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Gigabyte
We are Neutral rated on Gigabyte with a 12-month target price of NT$487 . Our TP is based on a 14.7x 2027E P/E which is based on PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's share performance.
Key upside/downside risks include: 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery, 2) faster-/slower-than-expected gaming PC growth, and 3) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up.
Rev YoY
Act vs. GS
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ASUS (2357.TW, Neutral): PC enjoying product mix upgrade; AI server client base expansion; July & 2Q26 beat
ASUS's Jul revenue was up 53% YoY / down 21% QoQ to NT$84bn, or 16% higher than our estimate, re fl ecting strong AI servers demand, along with PC product mix upgrade. Looking forward, we expect sequential revenue growth in Aug-Sep, considering the low base in Jul, followed by sequential revenue declines in Oct-Nov, as the rising memory cost would weigh PC end demand and AI servers model transition. Overall, our estimate shows double-digit YoY revenue growth for 3Q / 4Q26E, supported by PC product mix upgrade and rack-level AI server ramp up. Maintain Neutral.
Exhibit 17: We expect ASUS Aug revenue to grow +41% YoY/+5% MoM to NT$88bn ASUS monthly/quarterly revenues
| Jul-26 | Aug-26E | Sep-26E | Oct-26E | Nov-26E | Dec-26E | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 84,131 | 88,338 | 96,272 | 81,831 | 72,011 | 75,459 | 268,741 | 229,302 |
| Rev YoY | 53% | 41% | 17% | 23% | 8% | 8% | 34% | 13% |
| RevMoM/QoQ | -21% | 5% | 9% | -15% | -12% | 5% | 4% | -15% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 72,325 | |||||||
| Act vs. GS | 16% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 18: ASUS monthly revenue trend
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Asus
We are Neutral-rated on ASUS with a 12-month target price of NT$1,109 . Our target price is based on 15.7x 2027E P/E , which is derived from brand makers' average ratio of 2027E P/E to 2028E NI YoY and OPM. We see EPS growth and OPM as major factors for the stock's share performance.
Key upside/downside risks include: 1) stronger / weaker-than-expected PC market growth; 2) faster / slower-than-expected AI and gaming PC growth; and 3) faster / slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up.
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camon 4u. compar monty revenues did for trend (ano)
NTSm
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
20,000
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
-YoY (RHS)
70%
60%
50%
Compal (2324.TW, Neutral): AI server capacity in expansion; July better than expected
20%
10%
Compal's Jul revenue was up 38% YoY / down 15% MoM to NT$81bn, or 10% higher than our estimate, re fl ecting AI servers shipment ramp up. Jul PC shipments was down 22% YoY / 25% MoM to 1.8m units, re fl ecting the impact of 1H26 demand pull-in amid the rising memory cost. We model sequential revenue growth in Aug-Dec, considering the company's rising AI server shipments, AI server capacity expansion, and PC product mix upgrade towards high end model (e.g. AI PC). Overall, we expect Compal's 3Q / 4Q26E revenues to grow at 6% / 10% QoQ, bene fi ting from the rising AI server end demand from Neocloud clients. We remain positive on Compal's business diversi fi cation, supported by global capacity expansion in the US, Taiwan, and Vietnam, while consumer electronics still accounts for the majority of the company's total revenue, which demand could be capped by rising raw material costs (e.g., memory, CPU). Maintain Neutral on fair valuation.
Exhibit 19: Compal 3-month revenue preview
| Jul-26 | Aug-26(E) | Sep-26(E) | Oct-26(E) | Nov-26(E) | Dec-26(E) | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 81,006 | 84,246 | 88,278 | 90,043 | 91,844 | 96,880 | 253,529 | 278,767 |
| Rev YoY | 38% | 43% | 27% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 35% | 46% |
| Rev Mom / QoQ | -15% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 10% |
| GS estimates(NT$m) | 73,467 | |||||||
| Act vs. GS | 10% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 20: Compal monthly revenues and YoY trend (RHS)
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Compal
We are Neutral-rated on Compal with a 12-month target price of NT$41.3 . Our target price is based on 13.1x 2027E P/E , which is derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth and market re-rating for ODM companies as major factors for the stock's performance.
Key upside/downside risks : 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery; 2) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up; and 3) stronger/weaker-than-expected demand for tablets.
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camble 44 mventee sul revenues up do 70 Tur camore cle mventee montmy revenue preview
- 2025-26 Monthly Revenues
Jul-26 Aug-26 (E)
NTSm
120,000
YoY
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
79,367
Sep-26 (E)
-YoY (RHS)
63,878
5%
66%
29%
Oct-26 (E) Nov-26 (E) Dec-26 (E)
65,156
67,110
29%
80%
70%
Inventec (2356.TW, Neutral): AI server supporting growth ahead; Memory cost weighing on PC shipments; Jul Rev and 2Q26 beat 50% 40%
30%
20%
Inventec's Jul revenue was up 66% YoY / down 12% MoM, or 32% higher than our estimate, which we attribute to the strong AI server end demand, while the MoM decline was mainly due to a decline in PC shipments, given the demand pull-in in 1H26. We expect sequential revenue decline in Aug-Sep, mainly on a decline in PC shipments from a consumption pull in amid rising memory costs. Meanwhile, growth momentum should recover in Oct-Dec, supported by AI server shipment ramp up. Overall, we expect the company to deliver double-digit YoY revenue growth in 3Q / 4Q26E, on rising AI server end demand and Inventec's capacity expansion. We remain positive on Inventec's AI server business expansion, while the rising memory cost would cap the PC shipments growth ahead. Maintain Neutral. 10%
Exhibit 21: Inventec monthly revenue preview
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Inventec
We are Neutral-rated on Inventec with a 12-month target price of NT$56.0 . Our target price is based on 14.6x 2027E P/E , which is derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's performance.
Key upside/downside risks : 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery; 2) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up; and 3) stronger-/weaker-than-expected demand for general servers.
19%
71,389
11%
3Q26E
233,436
32%
4Q26E
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
anllwlctresarunmonemy revellues anlu camel co. regatron e monut revenue preview
NTSm
- 2025-26 Monthly Revenues
140,000
Rev YoY
120,000
100,000
Jul-26 Aug-26 (E)
-YoY (RHS)
86,015
100,638
53%
12%
cilu
Sep-26 (E)
60%
122,934
50%
7%
Oct-26 (E)
126,622
7%
Nov-26 (E)
132,953
31%
Dec-26 (E)
145,163
45%
3Q26E
309,587
20 %
Pegatron (4938.TW, Sell): AI server driving 2H26 growth; PC growth capped by rising memory cost; Sell
80,000
Actvs. GS
60,000
40,000
20,000
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
20%
Pegatron's Jul revenue was +12% YoY / -6% MoM to NT$86bn, and we attribute the MoM decline to the sluggish PC end demand post the demand pull-in in 1H26, causing Pegatron's PC shipments to decline to 0.40m units in Jul from 0.65m units in Jun. We model double digit MoM revenue growth in Aug-Sep, considering the low base in Jul, followed by modest sequential growth in Oct to Dec, mainly driven by the strong AI server shipments growth. Management remains positive on the momentum of AI server business in 2H26E, supported by the strong end demand from Neocloud and CSP clients. Overall, we expect Pegatron's 3Q / 4Q26E revenues to grow at +20% / +27% YoY. We are positive on Pegatron's AI server business expansion, while we expect the tight memory supply to cap the consumer electronics growth. Maintain Sell.
Exhibit 23: Pegatron 3-month revenue preview
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 24: Pegatron monthly revenues and YoY trend
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: Pegatron's 2Q26 revenue, GM, and Opex ratio are largely in line with our estimate, while 2Q26 non-op income is higher than expected, leading 2Q26 net income 22% higher than our estimate. We factor in Pegatron's Jul revenue and 2Q26 result and raise our 2026-28E net incomes by 10% / 8% / 7%, mainly on higher revenues and lower opex ratios. We raise our 2026-28E revenues by 5% / 5% / 4%, mainly on higher contribution from AI server business. Our 2026-28E opex ratios are slightly revised up, mainly on higher R&D expense to support the AI server speci fi cation upgrades and PC product mix upgrade towards AI PC.
4Q26E
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
peers
Camell 4o. callings revision
30
NT m
25
Revenue
GP
2026E
New
Inspur
1, 172,336
51,755
1,232,878
20
Exhibit 25: Earnings revision
OP
Net income
15,804
17,420
Margins
GM
OPM
10
NM
5
0%
Chg
5%
AVC a Fositek
7%
6%
Wiwynn
10%
Old
1,341,304
55,240
18,354
17,847
2027E
New
1,414,694
57,314
19,227
19,966
Chg
5%
4%
8%
9%
Old
1,505,580
20,080
2028E
New
1,569,030
62,119
21,795
20,898
4%
2%
9%
7%
| Asus | Inventec | Inventec | Inventec | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | ||||
| 4.2% 1.4% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 4.0% | |||
| 1.4% 1.3% | 1.4% Gigabyte | 1.4% 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% 1.3% | 1.4% 1.3% | |
| 5% 10% | 15% 20% 25% | 30% 35% | 40% | |||
| 2027-28E avg. earnings growth |
HPQ
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to derive our 12M TP based on near-term P/E, and our target P/E is updated to 10.6x 2027E EPS, (vs. 10.0x previously), derived from the refreshed peers correlation of forward year earnings growth and P/E. With the updated earnings and target multiple, our 12M TP is revised up to NT$75.5 (vs. NT$66.2 previously).
Exhibit 26: Correlation of earnings growth and P/E of peers
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 28: Pegatron P&L summary
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 272,433 | 267,336 | 257,863 | 319,528 | 244,105 | 274,448 | 309,587 | 404,738 | 1,125,349 | 1,117,160 | 1,232,878 | 1,414,694 | 1,569,030 |
| Gross profit | 10,165 | 8,377 | 10,902 | 13,057 | 10,801 | 12,156 | 12,637 | 16,161 | 46,033 | 42,501 | 51,755 | 57,314 | 62,119 |
| Operating expense | (3,634) | (3,197) | (3,716) | (4,245) | (4,091) | (3,659) | (3,458) | (4,521) | (33,532) | (30,893) | (34,624) | (37,348) | (40,324) |
| Operating income | 2,483 | 1,471 | 3,218 | 4,437 | 2,829 | 4,198 | 4,535 | 5,569 | 12,501 | 11,609 | 17,131 | 19,966 | 21,795 |
| Pre tax profit | 6,669 | 1,731 | 7,675 | 8,859 | 3,465 | 7,744 | 6,374 | 7,409 | 27,224 | 24,934 | 24,992 | 25,303 | 29,855 |
| Net income | 4,303 | 287 | 4,545 | 5,267 | 1,561 | 4,488 | 5,259 | 6,112 | 16,877 | 14,403 | 17,420 | 19,227 | 20,898 |
| EPS, diluted (NT$) | 1.61 | 0.11 | 1.69 | 1.95 | 0.58 | 1.66 | 1.95 | 2.26 | 6.28 | 5.35 | 6.45 | 7.12 | 7.74 |
| Margins / ratio | |||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| Opex ratio | -2.8% | -2.6% | -3.0% | -2.7% | -3.3% | -2.9% | -2.6% | -2.6% | -3.0% | -2.8% | -2.8% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| Operating margin | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Net margin | 1.6% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | -17% | -2% | -4% | 24% | -24% | 12% | 13% | 31% | |||||
| Gross profit | -14% | -18% | 30% | 20% | -17% | 13% | 4% | 28% | |||||
| Operating income | -14% | -41% | 119% | 38% | -36% | 48% | 8% | 23% | |||||
| Net income | 15% | -93% | 1481% | 16% | -70% | 187% | 17% | 16% | |||||
| YoY | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 9% | 5% | -12% | -2% | -10% | 3% | 20% | 27% | -10% | -1% | 10% | 15% | 11% |
| Gross profit | -4% | -28% | -9% | 11% | 6% | 45% | 16% | 24% | 0% | -8% | 22% | 11% | 8% |
| Operating income | -18% | -50% | -12% | 53% | 14% | 185% | 41% | 26% | -16% | -7% | 48% | 17% | 9% |
| Net income | 32% | -95% | 6% | 41% | -64% | 1461% | 16% | 16% | 7% | -15% | 21% | 10% | 9% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 27: Pegatron 12M forward P/E ratio
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Re fi nitiv Eikon
60,730
19,470
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Pegatron
We are Sell rated on Pegatron with a 12-month target price of NT$75.5. Our TP is based on a 10.6x 2027E P/E, which is derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's share performance.
Key risks: 1) stronger-than-expected smartphone market recovery, 2) faster-than-expected AI server ramp-up, and 3) stronger-than-expected demand on consumer electronics.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]